Professional Cycling For the Fans - Predictions for 2010 TDF...Radio Shack Team / AC's new team, etc.

ITT: AC hands down over closest GC rivals.
TTT: Might lose time to TRS, Garmin and even Saxo.
Flat stages: Little chance of losing time.
Climbs: He can respond to AS' attacks nimbly, and it is hard to follow him when HE attacks.

The way I see it, AC is very hard to beat.

That said. AC will destroy all in next years tour and it wont be close. Lance could finish second but he wont be close to AC. AC is the best climber in the world and won the final ITT. Hes the perfect weapon for grand tours. Weak team or not, hes winning the TdF...probably for the next 3-4 years.

It may not be as close as you think. Even in his "not-the-old-Lance" form, LA was still one of the top five climbers overall. He could step up to top three and be a real threat, even without the ability to accelerate that the other two have. Remember Levi on the podium? He can't accelerate to save his life, but never allowed much of a gap at the top.

One thing I find a little surprising is that everyone concentrates on the mountains and not Lance's ITT results. To my mind he clearly climbed better than he TT'd (okay, Verbier was a bad day).

So a scenario: TRS wins the TTT and protects LA better than AC's new team does him, LA stays close to AC in the hills - timewise, and is in top three form in ITT. You've essentially got a tie. Now add a dash of old-age treachery, and an 8th win is entirely conceivable.

Laggard did you see this story:

Eurosport doubles its Tour viewing audience
Thursday, 6 August 2009 Nigel Wynn
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Sports broadcaster Eurosport has revealed record viewing figures for the 2009 Tour de France. An average of 1.8 million people across Europe tuned in to watch the Tour this July, double the figure for 2008.

Viewer numbers peaked for stage 15 to Verbier on Sunday July 19, which garnered 2.8 million viewers in Europe. In total, Eurosport broadcasted 156 hours of Tour coverage.

"We are delighted to have broken these major Tour records," said Arnaud Simon, Eurosport broadcast director. "We have unrivalled live coverage of cycling's biggest races and our sport and broadcasting expertise is one of the reasons for these record audience ratings."

"Eurosport's comprehensive coverage of the stages goes beyond any other channel... Our complementary editorial and news shows, such as Planet Armstrong, Tour de France Flash and our highlights programmes are creating a very strong, stand-out TV package that is highly attractive to viewers," concluded Simon.

In the UK, British Eurosport is available via cable or satellite TV systems.

Laggard did you see this story:

Eurosport doubles its Tour viewing audience
Thursday, 6 August 2009 Nigel Wynn
0 Comments


Print Comment Mail
Sports broadcaster Eurosport has revealed record viewing figures for the 2009 Tour de France. An average of 1.8 million people across Europe tuned in to watch the Tour this July, double the figure for 2008.

Viewer numbers peaked for stage 15 to Verbier on Sunday July 19, which garnered 2.8 million viewers in Europe. In total, Eurosport broadcasted 156 hours of Tour coverage.

"We are delighted to have broken these major Tour records," said Arnaud Simon, Eurosport broadcast director. "We have unrivalled live coverage of cycling's biggest races and our sport and broadcasting expertise is one of the reasons for these record audience ratings."

"Eurosport's comprehensive coverage of the stages goes beyond any other channel... Our complementary editorial and news shows, such as Planet Armstrong, Tour de France Flash and our highlights programmes are creating a very strong, stand-out TV package that is highly attractive to viewers," concluded Simon.

In the UK, British Eurosport is available via cable or satellite TV systems.

Not surprised. He is the most famous cyclist in the world.

Any idea as to who is or will be on LA's Tour squad?

http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=568675
http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=575513

My guess:

Phil Anderson
Steven Rooks
Lucien Van Impe
Raul Alcala
Dirk Dewolf
Per Pederson
Robert Millar
Felice Gimondi
Marc Madiot

Merging with http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=568675

The hard thing about predictions are what make them fun: You just don't know. Yeah, I think LA will be better, but those that did poorly this year might do better next year. Those that didn't participate might next year.

I think Evans will do much better next year. I think Valverde will be back in. I think Basso will be back in. The Schlecks and Contador will be back. Vinokourov will probably be top 10, as will some of the others from this year. Top 5? Hard to say, but I'd say Contador has the inside track on the win yet again and I think Andy is still the only other one likely to be there in the end. I still think everyone else will be scrambling for 3rd. I hope LA can squeeze out a 3rd, but there's easily half a dozen others that may do it instead.

Why does everyone keep saying Lance will be stronger next year? He will be pushing 39! (btw - I'm older than that, so no offense to you other "old guys" )

because of the progression of his form up until his collarbone break. then after his collarbone break his progression of form. then during the tour his progression of form. did not look as if he had peaked at any point. plus Chris Carmichael is still seeing gains in his V02 max and his L threshold.
Now that is why everyone thinks his form will be better next year. now can i tell you that next year he will be better, no i cant, but i can tell you what evidence would leave people to believe, including myself that it is a strong possibility he will be better next year.
age is not as big of a factor as you are making it. it is a factor, but not nearly as much of one.

astana, discovery, us postal, blah blah blah... i hate to break everyones hearts but Lance and AC have been so dominant BECAUSE of their teams. im so suprized at how many people think that a rider wouldnt be affected by going to a weaker team, and how even a weaker GC candidate can be dragged along by an awesome team. do you think Mark Cavendish would win half as many sprints without Columbia, do you really think Lance would have won 7 tours in a row without US postal/discovery grinding the pace out front.
AC has had the best team in cycling pulling on the front for him, beating the crap out of everyone elses legs. does it take an amazing person like Lance, alberto, and MC, to maintain that same pace and attack at an even higher level, yes, but would it be as effective without the team...no. AC will suffer being on a weaker team, can he still win, of course, but it will be much much harder for him.

I wouldn't necessarily just send out the post-celebrations yet. Look in the past at people like Ocana and Van Impe and you'd never think they'd only get one or two Tours. They each have 5 or 6 written all over them. And what about Merckx? He so dominated that if you were around in say, 1973, you'd think he was going to win 10 tours. Of course, in 10 years he entered 1,800 races and won 500. Amazing. Anyway... yeah, Contador probably has a good two or three good years left. I can see him winning perhaps two more times, but Andy Schleck was right there. On Ventoux even the aged Lance was chugging along as best he could and beside him Contador was wincing at times. They're all close. Perhaps Lance won't beat him, but Andy and Wiggins and I'm sure someone else will crop up.... It's not easy. I might give him one more easy year and then it'll take lots of money to build a great team for him to win.

Considering that by the time Ocana won his first Grand Tour both Merckx and Felice Gimondi had shown their abilities I don;t think anyone expected Ocana to get very many Grand Tour wins.

Weaker than they were with AC. Take a team with the best grand tour GC rider in the world and minus that rider. They will be weaker.

How can a team be weaker than it was before AC, if that team has never existed before? Furthermore, since the entire team
roster is unknown, it seems premature to venture a definitive opinion as to the potential, possible, or likely strength of a team RS.

I guess George isn't in love with Lance afterall

because of the progression of his form up until his collarbone break. then after his collarbone break his progression of form. then during the tour his progression of form. did not look as if he had peaked at any point. plus Chris Carmichael is still seeing gains in his V02 max and his L threshold.
Now that is why everyone thinks his form will be better next year. now can i tell you that next year he will be better, no i cant, but i can tell you what evidence would leave people to believe, including myself that it is a strong possibility he will be better next year.
age is not as big of a factor as you are making it. it is a factor, but not nearly as much of one.

Name a TdF Champion who was older than LA is now please

Why?

Because he said "age is not as big of a factor". If it's not, I'd like to see proof.

Since the French hate Armstrong they probably won't have TTT, just out of spite.

That said, LA may be better next year, but AC will still beat him and win.

And Vino will either test positive, or go on a drunken rampage in a hotel and end up in jail.

Lance has more money at his disposal today then ever before in his career, and you guys think he will be on a weak team next year like Contador?... TRS has a lot of money and cycling god power between LA and JB alone, they will have the stronger team next year then Astana in 2008, in the sense that everyone would be working for one rider vs. two. Armstrong was 3 years out of cycling and everyone seems to forget he broke his collarbone in 2008... It was unknown if he would even ride the TDF 08, let alone be involved in controversy over who was the strongest Astana rider come tour time.

That being said, Andy deserves to win this year. He is the future and Lance is having a mid life crisis right now. But when you give LA/JB a good sponsor, they are pretty unstoppable.

Lance has more money at his disposal today then ever before in his career, and you guys think he will be on a weak team next year like Contador?... TRS has a lot of money and cycling god power between LA and JB alone, they will have the stronger team next year then Astana in 2008, in the sense that everyone would be working for one rider vs. two. Armstrong was 3 years out of cycling and everyone seems to forget he broke his collarbone in 2008... It was unknown if he would even ride the TDF 08, let alone be involved in controversy over who was the strongest Astana rider come tour time.

That being said, Andy deserves to win this year. He is the future and Lance is having a mid life crisis right now. But when you give LA/JB a good sponsor, they are pretty unstoppable.

psst. freddie. It's 2009.






psssst. Lance ain't gonna win in 2010 either.

He will be pushing 39! (btw - I'm older than that, so no offense to you other "old guys" )

None taken. At 39 he'll need a whole week of team time trials and and another of crosswinds with hooking up with Columbia-Highroad to make up for what he'll lose in the mountains.

Since the French hate Armstrong they probably won't have TTT, just out of spite.


You're young so you're forgiven in not knowing that the TTT was not featured in TDFs before Lance even rode the race.

Lance has more money at his disposal today then ever before in his career, and you guys think he will be on a weak team next year like Contador?... TRS has a lot of money and cycling god power between LA and JB alone, they will have the stronger team next year then Astana in 2008, in the sense that everyone would be working for one rider vs. two. Armstrong was 3 years out of cycling and everyone seems to forget he broke his collarbone in 2008... It was unknown if he would even ride the TDF 08, let alone be involved in controversy over who was the strongest Astana rider come tour time.

That being said, Andy deserves to win this year. He is the future and Lance is having a mid life crisis right now. But when you give LA/JB a good sponsor, they are pretty unstoppable.

BS. Andy doesn't deserve to win any more than any other rider. And he won't deserve to win until he can climb and time trial better than Alberto Contador. Goes for everyone else out there too.

Sponsorship had nothing to do with Contador beating LA/JB. AC is better. Unless they plan on going to Radio Shack and hooking up a bunch of radio controlled car to the front of Lance's bike, he ain't gonna climb better than AC, or Andy Schleck for that matter, ever again.

Columbia has bolstered its ranks whilst losing some veterans. Though without a GC contender, their sprint train remains strong.

because of the progression of his form up until his collarbone break. then after his collarbone break his progression of form. then during the tour his progression of form. did not look as if he had peaked at any point.

I don't know about that, but Contador definitely didn't (have to) give 100% in the end, and neither did Andy Schleck.

Interesting transfers btw. looks like BMC is going to be ambitious next season.