Professional Cycling For the Fans - Predictions for 2010 TDF...Radio Shack Team / AC's new team, etc.

I got some predictions:

AC is going to be on a weaker team...that is a fact, so you can already conclude that if there is a team time trial, AC is going to lose some time. Not good for AC, losing time to both Lance and Andy.

Lance Armstrong will probably come out stronger in the 2010 TDF. More bad news for AC and Andy.

Michael Rasmussen may sign with a team, and has been known to beat AC in the mountains.

Vino will test positive again.

I think Lance or Andy will win due to being on a stronger team, and Contador might get 4th.

Wait, there's three of these threads already.

Let's talk about this weekends Clasica San Sebastian.

Why does everyone keep saying Lance will be stronger next year? He will be pushing 39! (btw - I'm older than that, so no offense to you other "old guys" )

LA was weaker this year though because he had been about 3-4 years out of cycling. Next year should be better for Lance.

LA was weaker this year though because he had been about 3-4 years out of cycling. Next year should be better for Lance.

Why?

Why?

Theoretically, he should boost his race fitness and acumen. But on the other hand, he is getting one year older.

It's not like he was sitting around drinking beer and eating pie. The guy was still competing at an extremely high level in retirement.

Now he will be a year older, running triathlons, etc. I just don't see this as something that will make him better next year. In fact, I wonder if he will even be the GC contendor on his own team, and I don't mean that as an insult. I see Radio Shack as a way to make money and set up a new American team that he can control, set up a future for Taylor, etc., not a way for him to win the TdF.

Contador wins. He probably will have to overcome a weaker TTT, but unless he has a bad stage somewhere he wins. Of course if Lance can make Andy into a TT man; but then Lance will be fighting him in an internal team stuggle.

AC is rumored to go to either Caisse Esp (sp?) or Garmin. Those are good teams and certainly can support him to 1st place.

I agree there, idk if i feel like LA is doing this to win but try to increase the US team base and try to push others towards the future

Well the whole Schleck brothers going to Radio Shack is a bust apparently. Who can Radio Shack sign that can compete with Andy or AC?

Well the whole Schleck brothers going to Radio Shack is a bust apparently. Who can Radio Shack sign that can compete with Andy or AC?

Peter Pan? :lol:

Otherwise, it's the old man or bust.

I got some predictions:

1 AC is going to be on a weaker team...that is a fact, so you can already conclude that if there is a team time trial, AC is going to lose some time. Not good for AC, losing time to both Lance and Andy.

2 Lance Armstrong will probably come out stronger in the 2010 TDF. More bad news for AC and Andy.

3 Michael Rasmussen may sign with a team, and has been known to beat AC in the mountains.

4 Vino will test positive again.

5 I think Lance or Andy will win due to being on a stronger team, and Contador might get 4th.


Well, obviously this is your wish list for next season. Not really predictions based upon logical analysis. Okay, let's see how you'll do out of your 5 predictions:

1. Not everyone on Astana will go to TRS. So it is yet to be determined how strong that team will be. So it is fare to say that Lance will be on a weaker team as well. We know that AC won't be with them. That makes them weaker. AC will go to another team. That will make that team stronger. We won't know the difference in gain or loss until we know all of the participants on each team. Your speculation about AC losing time to both Lance and Andy is highly suspect. If there is a difference it will not be significant enough to overcome AC's advantages in the mountains and ITT.

2. Lance Armstrong will have to work his ass off to perform at the same level he did this year. Athletes turning 39 do not get better. At best the stay the same. Invariably they get worse. He won't get be better without significant phamaceutical aid. Additionally, AC and Andy are 26 and 24 years old. They have yet to reach their athletic peak performace age wise. Really bad news for Lance and everyone else.

3. Rasmussen has been out of commission for couple of years. We don't know how he will perform. We have seen Contador. Contador is still improving. When the Chicken beat AC, they were both different riders.

4. Vino, well....no comment

5. As was mentioned above, Lance and Andy will not be on a team strong enough to wipe out the significant gains that Contador will get in the mountains and the ITT. Unless you think the TTT will give 5-6 minute gains, they won't even be close to AC.

So you got 1 out of 5 correct. But that Vino one really isn't that much of a stretch. :roflmao2:

Seriously, do we even know if there will be a TTT next year. The TDF went several years without one so we may see that trend again.

Until the new team organizations are up and running we can't know who will be strong. Also, they could change the way that the TTT is timed since it has been differently in the past.

If Contador goes to Garmin, then as a whole his team may just be as strong as TRS or Saxo Bank.

As a whole, the breakup of Astana is a good thing for cycling. Next year's tour should be much more competitive in the GC.

Well, obviously this is your wish list for next season. Not really predictions based upon logical analysis. Okay, let's see how you'll do out of your 5 predictions:

1. Not everyone on Astana will go to TRS. So it is yet to be determined how strong that team will be. So it is fare to say that Lance will be on a weaker team as well. We know that AC won't be with them. That makes them weaker. AC will go to another team. That will make that team stronger. We won't know the difference in gain or loss until we know all of the participants on each team. Your speculation about AC losing time to both Lance and Andy is highly suspect. If there is a difference it will not be significant enough to overcome AC's advantages in the mountains and ITT.

2. Lance Armstrong will have to work his ass off to perform at the same level he did this year. Athletes turning 39 do not get better. At best the stay the same. Invariably they get worse. He won't get be better without significant phamaceutical aid. Additionally, AC and Andy are 26 and 24 years old. They have yet to reach their athletic peak performace age wise. Really bad news for Lance and everyone else.

3. Rasmussen has been out of commission for couple of years. We don't know how he will perform. We have seen Contador. Contador is still improving. When the Chicken beat AC, they were both different riders.

4. Vino, well....no comment

5. As was mentioned above, Lance and Andy will not be on a team strong enough to wipe out the significant gains that Contador will get in the mountains and the ITT. Unless you think the TTT will give 5-6 minute gains, they won't even be close to AC.

So you got 1 out of 5 correct. But that Vino one really isn't that much of a stretch. :roflmao2:

If there is a TTT I'm positive AC will lose time. This puts more pressure on AC. I'm positive Levi will go TRS, and I'm sure Kloden will follow. I wouldn't doubt that a lot of the domestiques will follow as well, unless they have contract obligations.

Doubt AC will go to Garmin, especially after Wiggin's 4th place performance. Garmin doesn't want a GC rivalry that occurred on Astana.

AC had it easy this year by being on such a great team. It will be 10x harder for him to win next year, unless the motorcycles give him even more aid on the ITT. Remember what happened when AC was on his own in '06...he got beat by Rasmussen with ease. Expect to see the same thing with Schleck or LA next year.

Lance stated AC does have weaknesses, and I'm sure that will be exploited next year.

Seriously, do we even know if there will be a TTT next year. The TDF went several years without one so we may see that trend again.

Until the new team organizations are up and running we can't know who will be strong. Also, they could change the way that the TTT is timed since it has been differently in the past.

Good point. It will be fun to hear Lance and his minions ***** about how "the French took out the TTT because they don't want me to win". :D

I got some predictions:

AC is going to be on a weaker team...that is a fact, so you can already conclude that if there is a team time trial, AC is going to lose some time. Not good for AC, losing time to both Lance and Andy.

Lance Armstrong will probably come out stronger in the 2010 TDF. More bad news for AC and Andy.

Michael Rasmussen may sign with a team, and has been known to beat AC in the mountains.

Vino will test positive again.

I think Lance or Andy will win due to being on a stronger team, and Contador might get 4th.

*slaps head*

1. It's presumptuous to assume that TRS-80 will be granted a place in the pro tour or a invite to the tdf.

2. Why does age affect everyone but LA?

3. Caisse d'Epargne (a likely team for AC) lost 1.29 to Astana and only 49 seconds to Saxo. Not a huge deal for a climber like AC.

until the new team organizations are up and running we can't know who will be strong.

+100

There's also this assumption being made that TRS-80 will automatically be a strong team.

If there is a TTT I'm positive AC will lose time. This puts more pressure on AC. I'm positive Levi will go TRS, and I'm sure Kloden will follow. I wouldn't doubt that a lot of the domestiques will follow as well, unless they have contract obligations.

Doubt AC will go to Garmin, especially after Wiggin's 4th place performance. Garmin doesn't want a GC rivalry that occurred on Astana.

AC had it easy this year by being on such a great team. It will be 10x harder for him to win next year, unless the motorcycles give him even more aid on the ITT. Remember what happened when AC was on his own in '06...he got beat by Rasmussen with ease. Expect to see the same thing with Schleck or LA next year.

Lance stated AC does have weaknesses, and I'm sure that will be exploited next year.

As has been pointed out by other posters, the TTT might not even be in the event next year. I'm inclined to think it will be. But I wouldn't be surprised if they went back to the limited time losses rule previously used.

The mere fact that they are losing AC, the best time trialist from this years race, means that their team time trial squad is a little weaker. Whoever gets AC will get a little stronger. Again, if your banking on Lance winning solely on the strength of the TTT, you're begging. Whatever team AC goes to is going to be built around winning the TdF. They aren't going to just rollover in the TTT, if there is one. There is no way that Lance or Andy Schleck will get a 6 minute gain on the TTT. Any gains those guys get in the TTT will be wiped away in the mountains and the ITT.

What are you talking about '06 for? Did you watch this years TdF? You know the 2009 TdF. Rasmussen hasn't raced since then. Its highly speculative as to how his form will be. AC is clearly better than he was in '06. Funny how three years can make a difference like that when you're 23.

AC didn't have it easy this year. He had to defeat his teammate and director. He made it look easy because he's by far the best climber out there and a top time trialer.

Oooo, Lance said AC has weaknesses, huh? And you're sure that will be exploited next year? Again are these your predictions or fantasies?

Doubt AC will go to Garmin, especially after Wiggin's 4th place performance. Garmin doesn't want a GC rivalry that occurred on Astana.

I do not think Garmin would have any problems with a GC rivalry. At the moment Garmin do not have a true GC contender to rival and beat either Contador or Schleck the younger. Wiggins will have to have a considerable improvement in his climbing abilities if he is ever to be considered a true GC contender.

That is why I would not be at all surprised Garmin were to come out and named Contador as their new signing. With the addition of Contador, Garmin's TTT can only get better - if they don't lose anyone.

Wasn't Wiggins rumored to be going to the new British team, Sky someting or another, or did I miss some news in the last few days?

Wasn't Wiggins rumored to be going to the new British team, Sky someting or another, or did I miss some news in the last few days?

It was a rumor.

A strong team can wear down a strong climber on a weaker team on the windy flat stages. Remember how quickly the crosswinds split the field when Astana or Saxo Bank put the hammer down. Team RS will have the money to have a strong team I have no doubt. But until the 2010 TdF course is announced it's all just a guess as to who will benefit most.

*slaps head*

1. It's presumptuous to assume that TRS-80 will be granted a place in the pro tour or a invite to the tdf.


Lance's participation in the TDF this year basically doubled worldwide interest in the TDF, and increased US TV ratings by 80%. There is no way in hell team "the shack" will not be in the Pro tour.

Lance's participation in the TDF this year basically doubled US interest in the TDF, and increased US TV ratings by 80%. There is no way in hell team "the shack" will not be in the Pro tour.

Fixed and you may be right about TDF organizers looking for those US dollars.

A strong team can wear down a strong climber on a weaker team on the windy flat stages. Remember how quickly the crosswinds split the field when Astana or Saxo Bank put the hammer down. Team RS will have the money to have a strong team I have no doubt. But until the 2010 TdF course is announced it's all just a guess as to who will benefit most.

Sheesh, you guys make it sound like AC is going to sign with some junior squad. Any team that will be able to pony up the cash to get is going to field a fairly strong team. Who ever signs him will build the team around supporting him to win grand tours. The biggest factor with regard to AC is the money situation. Somebody is going to have to buy out his last year with Astana and then convince him that they can field a strong team. Someone will get it together though. He's to good of a rider for him not to ride next season. I bet every team director has consider him. If they haven't, they do a disservice to their sponsors and team.

Fixed and you may be right about TDF organizers looking for those US dollars.


Laggard, its great that you are trying to be so helpful. However, asv's original post "Lance's participation in the TDF this year basically doubled worldwide interest in the TDF, and increased US TV ratings by 80%. There is no way in hell team "the shack" will not be in the Pro tour." was correct. Search google trends for the Tour de France and you will see that the worldwide interest is doubled. You can even see which countries were up the most.

*slaps head*

1. It's presumptuous to assume that TRS-80 will be granted a place in the pro tour or a invite to the tdf.

2. Why does age affect everyone but LA?

3. Caisse d'Epargne (a likely team for AC) lost 1.29 to Astana and only 49 seconds to Saxo. Not a huge deal for a climber like AC.

1. What? I guess the TDF doesn't want more exposure that Lance brings? Man, you better slap yourself again, but a bit harder next time, so that sense gets through.

2. Age doesn't affect LA? That is probably news to LA. LA in his prime would of sat 1st in the podium...that is fact.

3. It's a huge deal when the pressure is there to attack, rather than to defend.

2. Age doesn't affect LA? That is probably news to LA. LA in his prime would of sat 1st in the podium...that is fact.



Menchov, I was being sarcastic. You were the one who said he would be back even stronger. My implicit response was that he will be another year older and this affects even Sir Armstrong.

Sheesh, you guys make it sound like AC is going to sign with some junior squad.

No team is going to be as strong as TRS-80. Thus they are automatically favorites to win all three GTs.

Sheesh, you guys make it sound like AC is going to sign with some junior squad. Any team that will be able to pony up the cash to get is going to field a fairly strong team. Who ever signs him will build the team around supporting him to win grand tours. The biggest factor with regard to AC is the money situation. Somebody is going to have to buy out his last year with Astana and then convince him that they can field a strong team. Someone will get it together though. He's to good of a rider for him not to ride next season. I bet every team director has consider him. If they haven't, they do a disservice to their sponsors and team.

I expect team RS will basically be Astana minus AC more or less. Saxo Bank should stay the same. The only other teams close to either of them in this year's Tour were Columbia and Garmin. If AC went to either of those guys they would be able to support him very well. Personally, I would like to see AC go to a Spanish team. I think that would add more to the debate for the GC vs. going to Garmin which would make him the obvious front runner. Either way, he's the pick for GC, but it would be hard to bet against him on an established strong team. I want a glimmer of hope that someone can beat him next year so AC going to a weaker team would give me that hope.

Yeah, I suppose that if he went Caisse that would make things more interesting. The top four from this years tour all being from different teams, and three of those teams having 2 in the top 8 (Schlecks for SB, VDV and Wiggins for Garmin, Lance and Kloden for TRS). Then you have the best rider in the world on the least supported team... would be very entertaining. Still want him on Garmin though!

We know that AC won't be with them. That makes them weaker. Weaker than what?

Weaker than what?

Weaker than they were with AC. Take a team with the best grand tour GC rider in the world and minus that rider. They will be weaker. If you take the same Astana team without AC, would they be the prohibitive favorite to win the TdF next year? Or would Saxo Bank (Andy Schleck) be favored?

*slaps head*

1. It's presumptuous to assume that TRS-80 will be granted a place in the pro tour or a invite to the tdf.

2. Why does age affect everyone but LA?

3. Caisse d'Epargne (a likely team for AC) lost 1.29 to Astana and only 49 seconds to Saxo. Not a huge deal for a climber like AC.

Age does affect Lance-he'll never return to his 2004/2005 form.
But the 3 year absence was more significant than the difference between 37 and 38.

Why?

Well for one thing, both Lance and Chris Carmichael say so. No one else on the planet know Lance's condition or potential better than these two, so I think we could reasonably take their word for it.

:p

Tacos!

Reading everyone's comments, there are two camps, the Lance haters and the Lance fan boys. But you should look at this objectively because I am sure that the Lance haters were posting that he would not be competitive in the TdF becasue he is 38 yrs old however he was. On the flip side I am sure the Lance lovers were posting that he will win which he did not. But overall he probably exceeded most peoples expectations.

So for next year, Lance could be in better shape for a couple of reasons
1. He will have a full year of racing under his belt and barring any accidents he shoould be stronger do nor forget his accident this year more than likely had some kind of negative impact on his training.
2. The team will be built around him and he has JB.

Please do not forget that Contador still has a contract for another year with Astana, if he is unable to break that contract he will be on a weaker team, simply because this years Astana team is a direct link to US Postal and Disco. Also if Vino is racing there is and outside chance that Astana will not be invited, however the TdF organizers would be foolish not exploit the Contador and Armstrong rivalry.

In the end all of this Contador and Armstrong drama has been good for cycling. If it was not for the Lance factor the ratings would not have been there and I am not sure the race would have been as exciting.

Personally, I thought the race sucked this year.

Reading everyone's comments, there are two camps, the Lance haters and the Lance fan boys. But you should look at this objectively because I am sure that the Lance haters were posting that he would not be competitive in the TdF becasue he is 38 yrs old however he was. On the flip side I am sure the Lance lovers were posting that he will win which he did not. But overall he probably exceeded most peoples expectations.

So for next year, Lance could be in better shape for a couple of reasons
1. He will have a full year of racing under his belt and barring any accidents he shoould be stronger do nor forget his accident this year more than likely had some kind of negative impact on his training.
2. The team will be built around him and he has JB.

Please do not forget that Contador still has a contract for another year with Astana, if he is unable to break that contract he will be on a weaker team, simply because this years Astana team is a direct link to US Postal and Disco. Also if Vino is racing there is and outside chance that Astana will not be invited, however the TdF organizers would be foolish not exploit the Contador and Armstrong rivalry.

In the end all of this Contador and Armstrong drama has been good for cycling. If it was not for the Lance factor the ratings would not have been there and I am not sure the race would have been as exciting.

I know I posted that Lance could do well if he rode to podium, but that I thought that if he rode to win he had a good chance of blowing up and finishing outside of the top 10. I stand by that.

I missed on just how much his team would keep AC from attacking. I do not expect that to happen in 2010 at least AC and 2 Schleks will be attacking and counter attacking. If one considers a tactical make no mistakes race exciting then this years race was exciting. I prefer a race where riders attack.

I predict if AC and LA are going at it the viewers and spectators are going to win! next year is going to be big time fun to watch and the drama should be nice and thick. I cannot wait to see AC and LA go at one another with a vengance! Meanwhile those Schleck boys are not going to sit back and let AC/LA have all the glory so this should be one of the better races I think, 2010 that is.

I predict if AC and LA are going at it the viewers and spectators are going to win! next year is going to be big time fun to watch and the drama should be nice and thick. I cannot wait to see AC and LA go at one another with a vengance! Meanwhile those Schleck boys are not going to sit back and let AC/LA have all the glory so this should be one of the better races I think, 2010 that is.

If this race was any indication, AC and the Schlecks will be the ones going after each other.

Remember that Caisse d'Epargne were planning on riding for Valverde this year. When he couldn't start, they swapped focus to Perreiro, who had a really bad time of it. If they had had a GC guy to ride for, I'm sure that they would have been much more prominent. They are a very good team indeed - look how well they rode for Valverde last year, and Perreiro before that. Also, they have some experienced guys in the management, going back to the Indurain/Banesto days.

I got some predictions:

AC is going to be on a weaker team...that is a fact, so you can already conclude that if there is a team time trial, AC is going to lose some time. Not good for AC, losing time to both Lance and Andy.

Lance Armstrong will probably come out stronger in the 2010 TDF. More bad news for AC and Andy.

Michael Rasmussen may sign with a team, and has been known to beat AC in the mountains.

Vino will test positive again.

I think Lance or Andy will win due to being on a stronger team, and Contador might get 4th.

I think if Lance can stay healthy he will be stronger next year, especially if he rides to compete for the top spot in the TdF. With a cracked collar bone 6 months before the tour and he also rode a full slate of races...something he never did in the past. So if he trains specifically for the TdF he will be stronger.

That said. AC will destroy all in next years tour and it wont be close. Lance could finish second but he wont be close to AC. AC is the best climber in the world and won the final ITT. Hes the perfect weapon for grand tours. Weak team or not, hes winning the TdF...probably for the next 3-4 years.

I think if Lance can stay healthy he will be stronger next year, especially if he rides to compete for the top spot in the TdF. With a cracked collar bone 6 months before the tour and he also rode a full slate of races...something he never did in the past. So if he trains specifically for the TdF he will be stronger.

That said. AC will destroy all in next years tour and it wont be close. Lance could finish second but he wont be close to AC. AC is the best climber in the world and won the final ITT. Hes the perfect weapon for grand tours. Weak team or not, hes winning the TdF...probably for the next 3-4 years.

This.

Unless AS improves his TT dramatically, is hard for him to catch AC, even if he gains time TTTs.

AC is the best on TTs and climbs. As far as I can see, the only time he will lose significantly is in the TTT and bad luck, and no one is banking on the latter. He has gotten smarter since bonking earlier this year, and as the climbs in this year's TdF showed, attacking AC on climbs is likely to be futile.

2. Age doesn't affect LA? That is probably news to LA. LA in his prime would of sat 1st in the podium...that is fact.



Look at your quote. You've just proven that you cannot distinguish fact from opionion. A most important requirement for membership. Welcome to the Armstrong Fan Club.

Look at your quote. You've just proven that you cannot distinguish fact from opionion. A most important requirement for membership. Welcome to the Armstrong Fan Club.


You're looking for fact on BF? Are you new?

Good opinion. I see four strong teams potentially next year: Saxobank will be great again, I see Garmin improving, RS will probably not be the best without a little help, and I think Astana will be good enough for Contador, especially with the addition of Vino and the possibility of someone like Landis. Next year should be closer and even more exciting than this year was... and I loved it this year!

I think if Lance can stay healthy he will be stronger next year, especially if he rides to compete for the top spot in the TdF. With a cracked collar bone 6 months before the tour and he also rode a full slate of races...something he never did in the past. So if he trains specifically for the TdF he will be stronger.

That said. AC will destroy all in next years tour and it wont be close. Lance could finish second but he wont be close to AC. AC is the best climber in the world and won the final ITT. Hes the perfect weapon for grand tours. Weak team or not, hes winning the TdF...probably for the next 3-4 years.

I wouldn't necessarily just send out the post-celebrations yet. Look in the past at people like Ocana and Van Impe and you'd never think they'd only get one or two Tours. They each have 5 or 6 written all over them. And what about Merckx? He so dominated that if you were around in say, 1973, you'd think he was going to win 10 tours. Of course, in 10 years he entered 1,800 races and won 500. Amazing. Anyway... yeah, Contador probably has a good two or three good years left. I can see him winning perhaps two more times, but Andy Schleck was right there. On Ventoux even the aged Lance was chugging along as best he could and beside him Contador was wincing at times. They're all close. Perhaps Lance won't beat him, but Andy and Wiggins and I'm sure someone else will crop up.... It's not easy. I might give him one more easy year and then it'll take lots of money to build a great team for him to win.