I'm sorry for this moment of weakness, but...

Today, as I watched Lance sprint to take that finish, I suddenly found myself wondering if maybe he IS on something (that hasn't yet been determined illegal). After some thinking, I just decided that he had probably done less work than the others and, since his muscles generate less lactic acid, he was fresher for the sprint. But after looking back on the past two days, I can't imagine how he could be so strong still. Now, this is NOT meant to say "what he did is impossible" or ignite a stupid flame war (though I'm sure it will). What I'm fishing for is a solid explanation/critique of Lance's performance over the past few days (and maybe some solid explanations of how doping would work, benefits, drawbacks, etc). I still believe he's doing this all on his own, but that sprint just seemed almost impossible. Would his genetically low lactic acid "generation" combined with his high VO2max lead to performance like that. Is he perhaps the most genetically gifted athelete ever to grace any sport? Or is there possibly something else there?

Again, none of this "He HAS to be doping to do this" or "He's a cancer survivor and he'd never put something foreign in his body." I'm hoping for a more "scientific" discussion of the two possibilities. I'm not looking for a definitive answer "Yes he does/No he doesn't". I'm looking for an informed discussion of the possibilities of his performance when we consider genetics, training and, possibly, other less "noble" factors...

Let's try to keep this civil...

(PS I am a HUGE Lance fan, so this is not an attack on "the Man" :) )

The stage was incredibly hard. Those with the superior body and fitness will be far fresher at the end.
Why do you pick out this stage, out of all of his performances? He outsprinted two burnt out riders. I mean, how was this stage in particular so 'impossible'?

I'm sorry for this moment of weakness, but...

Today, as I watched Lance sprint to take that finish, I suddenly found myself wondering if maybe he IS on something (that hasn't yet been determined illegal). After some thinking, I just decided that he had probably done less work than the others and, since his muscles generate less lactic acid, he was fresher for the sprint. But after looking back on the past two days, I can't imagine how he could be so strong still. Now, this is NOT meant to say "what he did is impossible" or ignite a stupid flame war (though I'm sure it will). What I'm fishing for is a solid explanation/critique of Lance's performance over the past few days (and maybe some solid explanations of how doping would work, benefits, drawbacks, etc). I still believe he's doing this all on his own, but that sprint just seemed almost impossible. Would his genetically low lactic acid "generation" combined with his high VO2max lead to performance like that. Is he perhaps the most genetically gifted athelete ever to grace any sport? Or is there possibly something else there?

Again, none of this "He HAS to be doping to do this" or "He's a cancer survivor and he'd never put something foreign in his body." I'm hoping for a more "scientific" discussion of the two possibilities. I'm not looking for a definitive answer "Yes he does/No he doesn't". I'm looking for an informed discussion of the possibilities of his performance when we consider genetics, training and, possibly, other less "noble" factors...

Let's try to keep this civil...

(PS I am a HUGE Lance fan, so this is not an attack on "the Man" :) )


I think there are several factors at work here.

#1. LA is a genetic freak of nature. He's one of those guys who comes along once a generation or so and is PERFECTLY put together for the sport he chooses to participate in. Remember, he's more than just a good cyclist, he was entering triathalons as a teenager and competing with adults. He has an ability to work the heck out of his muscles and not generate lactic acid (or he generates it at a normal rate and metabolizes it faster than normal... there's no way to know which). His VO2max is likely in the 99.99999999% of human beings. You can't train this part of his dominance, you're either born with it or you're not.

#2. He trains like a freak of nature. There has been extensive discussion here and elsewhere about Lance's training regimen. Climbing L'Alp over 10 times in May for example. He's detailed, smart and dedicated. No detail, no matter how small, is overlooked. He's also a master at the tactics of the race... knowing when to attack, when to lay low and conserve, etc. etc... Look at today, he didn't panic in the last 300 meters, held close and took the stage by a wheel. Kloden attacks too soon and bonks... Lance wins.

#3. He's got a competitive streak about as 2500 miles long. The first two points are irrelevant if you aren't mean and nasty out there. You have to WANT it. You have to self-motivate... and LA is the master at this. How much you want to bet as he's climbing, he's seeing the faces of those French "journalists" who wrote the book... he's grinding their faces in a record setting win with every cranck and loving it as he does so.


So to answer your question... "can a performance like to today be produced by genetically low acid production and high VO2man?"... simply put, in combination with training, good tactics, and attitude, YES!

Now for some science. EPO is a naturally occuring substance that is a chemical trigger used by the body to stimulate red blood cell production. If you inject extra EPO, you can increase your RBC count, and thus the amount of O2 carried to the muscles. This is less likely to give you any benefit in a sprint such as the one at the end because he has "gone anaerobic" at that stage. High hematocrit could raise the anaerobic threshold, but I doubt this effect would really kick in in a sprint... more likely to aid you over a long climb. Of course, EPO, RBC count and hematocrit can all easily be tested for and LA has never been out of range.

People sometimes talk of "steroid" use. Anabolic steroids are NOT useful for endurance athletes, and in fact can really hinder endurance performance. LA doesn't want BIG muscles, he wants EFFICIENT muscles. Also, you can just tell by looking at him that he isn't on anabolic steroids. Those hormones create a clinical picture that is not hard for a doctor (and others even) to spot.

Doping for the purposes of endurance events is extremely difficult. Your body has a natural ability to compensate for anything you do to it that throws it off balance. For example, if you tried to shift your O2 sat curve by artificially inducing metabolic acidosis (which would facilitate unloading of O2 from the hemoglobin in blood to the tissues), your body will try to compensate in various ways, such as adjusting your basal respiration rate, altering levels of natural hormones, etc. etc. Likewise, injecting EPO would cause your body to react by producing LESS of its own... you could likely gain a short term benefit, but long term... gosh, that would be tough. RBC's take up to 10 days to mature, so shooting up EPO before a stage would do nothing but give you a track mark on your arm. lol.

Anyhow, that's a combination of my medical school knowledge and opinion, so take it for what it's worth. Personally, I think he's clean. I think he's just better than everyone else out there right now... ;)

OK. Fair critique Brent. Maybe I'm making too much out of it. I guess I was just so stunned by that fact that he closed a HUGE gap on Kloden with just an amazing burst of speed.

Smaug, all I can say is... Damn. That was EXACTLY what I was looking for. Thanks tons. As far as I'm concerned, thread closed, Lance clean and still "The Man" (or perhaps we need to start thinking of "a god"?) :D

His team is incredible. That has to help him have the best burst at the end. I am not a racer, but that makes sense to me. Add that to how good he is, his conditioning, and drive, then you have someone very hard to beat.

Good point Flat

OK. Fair critique Brent. Maybe I'm making too much out of it. I guess I was just so stunned by that fact that he closed a HUGE gap on Kloden with just an amazing burst of speed.

Fat, all I can say is... Damn. That was EXACTLY what I was looking for. Thanks tons. As far as I'm concerned, thread closed, Lance clean and still "The Man" (or perhaps we need to start thinking of "a god"?) :D


Dude, I was just as stunned as you... My jaw hit the floor when he turned that last corner and it looked like Kloden was STANDING STILL. Freaking AMAZING performance. But IMHO, Lance was able to win partly because Kloden went out too soon and BONKED. In the end, Kloden's legs just weren't there because he made his move too soon... that happens all the time in events like this.

Oh yeah, and I agree about the TEAM being another factor in the win. USPS is firing on all cylinders right now...

G'day carl,

as you know, I'm not necessarily a Lance fan, (not necessarily not either!). I follow the Aussies,(naturally)....but am generally in love with the sport of cycling. I love to see anyone win, particularly those who 'risk' the most in order to win....I absolutely loathe 'dopers'. I have been like the majority, I think, who sincerely hope that Lance isn't doping, but probably deep down, suspect he is......I mean he's gotta be, how can he be this much better than anyone else in the world...not just a little.....there's LA & daylight to the next guy. Yeah I know he trains hard, they all do...it's not training....yeah I know he fusses over every minute detail, these day's, they all do (they've all learn't a lot from UPS's professionalism)...so if its not any of these things...what can it be.....Solution: Lance has gotta be drugging!......Then it occurred to me, (fairly recently actually)....If Lance is drugging...& the solution to the problem of why he was so superior, is as simple as that, they'd all have their hands out saying,(like in 'something about Mary'?), "I'll have what Lance is having, please". Then everyone would be as good as Lance!....hasn't happened has it?.......I think the solution just lies in Lance being a "freak'. He's probably the first person to have all the attributes required to be good at this stuff (& I'm not discounting how good the team has been in all of this:

1/ Hugely mentally tough. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone 'harder' than Lance in this area.

2/ Genetically blessed. yeah, we can talk chemotherapy & stuff, but the fact remains that Lance was a superior triathlete & world champion, before he got sick.

3/ Totally single focus on TDF. Lance doesn't do anything that doesn't have a TDF win as its logical outcome...eating, drinking, sleeping, training, racing, team recruiting etc etc.

So, I don't think Lance is doping, I think he's just the 1st to make TDF his 'business', coupled with his genetic gifts.....Hope I'm not wrong,

cheers,

Hitchy

Good points Hitchy. I think the "Ill have what he's having" argument adds even more weight.

I think you're right about Kloden Smaug *although* it does appear that Lance completely caught him off guard and just kind of sneaked up on him...

#1. LA is a genetic freak of nature. He's one of those guys who comes along once a generation or so and is PERFECTLY put together for the sport he chooses to participate in. Remember, he's more than just a good cyclist, he was entering triathalons as a teenager and competing with adults. He has an ability to work the heck out of his muscles and not generate lactic acid (or he generates it at a normal rate and metabolizes it faster than normal... there's no way to know which). His VO2max is likely in the 99.99999999% of human beings. You can't train this part of his dominance, you're either born with it or you're not.


I was wondering the same thing as the OP. Looking at what these riders (and in particular Lance) do day-in and day-out for 3 weeks and over 2000 miles, I wonder how it’s even possible. I mean, just a single day of approximately 150 miles would seem to require a week of rest, at least!

Then I read a chapter in Bob Roll’s Tour de France Companion (‘Not So Easy Riders,’ pp 68-72) tonight that helped put things in perspective for me and quell my doubts. Bob discusses the genetic factors that TDF riders possess, and uses Lance as an example:

“[O]ne of the first gifts a champion cyclist has to have is the ability to take in a lot of oxygen. This is commonly referred to as lung capacity, and Lance Armstrong’s is prodigious. He can absorb more oxygen per breath than almost anyone on earth … almost twice as much as the average male. When [LA]’s lung capacity was measured by the Cooper Institute, a top study center for exercise physiology, it ranked highest of any athlete the researchers had ever studied. . . . Armstrong has a double strength [in terms of lactic acid]. His body creates less lactic acid, and gets rid of it faster, than most people do. This is ideal for bike racing , especially in the mountains and for the sustained effort required by time trials -- the two disciplines that most often determine who will win the TDF. . . . Armstrong has other genetic gifts. His heart is about 30 percent larger than the average person’s. His resting pulse is 32 beats per minute – less than half what a normal, fit adult might register. . . Even Armstrong’s bones are superior: his femurs, the driveshaft of pedaling, are freakishly long, relative to the rest of his leg. If all this sounds like the TDF champion is one in a billion … well, yes. That’s why hardly anyone can do it – and why a lot of folks just don’t understand what it takes.”

I think it’s natural to have such doubts and skepticism as relative laypeople, until we remind oursleves we are looking at the performance of literally the world’s most talented and best trained athletes. The handful of riders who crossed the line first today are less than 10 in number, on a planet populated by billions. Furthermore, unless the talent and capability is there, I doubt any amount of EPO could generate the performance. Would be like adding nitrous to a Yugo.

I am not a doctor.

I still have my doubts.

I find it sad that virtually every time someone is successful, some people say they are cheating or stealing.
Somebody starts a business because they have a better idea for a product, they work like crazy to develop the business, hire talented poeple, end up successful, make a lot of money..."Well, they got successful off the backs of the poor workers..." Instead of "they created something that provided jobs for hundreds of people".

How about if Armstrong just works harder than everyone else? That he was given a second chance at life that million of others have not gotten (like my two cousins, aged 38 and 47 who both died of cancer and left, between them, six children for their husbands to raise) and he is determined to take maximum advantage of it?

I still have my doubts.

That's too bad.

I'm not a great fan of Lance Armstrong but I do believe that unless he is caught cheating, there is no proff of it and hence any innuendo or spreading of doubt is really unnecessary and reflects badly on the person spreading it.

For any multiday satge race, recovery is the most important aspect of your fitnesss training. So ride hard everyday or every 2nd day an you improve yur recovery.

There are plenty of off the shelf protein and carbohydrate concoctions that can be used in conjunction with sports science to maximise an athletes recovery. Should we then say that people using these methods are also cheating??

Personally I find it ridiculous to continue spreading rumours on any athlete, that because they are outperforming their peers, they must be cheating.

I've had accessements done at the Sports Science Institute. Once the results are through they will help me draw up a training programme that will focus on maximising strength and recovery for a 8 day MTB stage race next year. There's no drugs involved, just understanding how my body works, and then getting to perform more efficiently through training and diet.
Many of my friends have gone down this route and the performance gains they've made is clear to see. They also seem more astute than before simply because their bodies are using oxygen efficiently.

So have your doubts but, really, I think it's more than just doubt. Subconceously I believe you've already made up your mind that Lance is guitly. But remember then that that modelwill remain in your mind. You will always believe that someone who is above their peers is a cheater and that is very very sad indeed.

I salute Armstrong on his achievements and hope that next year my boy Jan will show him the way.
But I do not beleive that LA is a cheater, unless he is proven to be one.

I may be off a bit here but does not the USPS Team train specifically for the TDF? Yes they race in other races but is not their main goal the TDF?

It seems as though other teams train for and put more work into more races throughout the year so it would be harder for them to come in to this race in peak shape. It comes down to timing and figuring out when they will peak. Some teams do it at the beginning of the race and others in the middle. USPS seems to peak closer to the end where it really counts.

As for his huge speed at the end, that I believe that was all mental. He blocked out any pain he might have been feeling and just wasted the other riders. My jaw hit the floor when I saw that. :eek:

As for people always thinking some one like Lance is doping, I kind of know how he feels. When I was in top lifting form (power lifting/football) I was as big as the guys juicing and stronger then a lot of them and I was always asked or accused of "USING" even though I was completely clean. It is sad that this happens but a lot of people can not comprehend the fact that some people have a natural gift.

:beer:

by far the best team in the tour, with i believe to be the best director i dont think they can be beaten till someone finally takes a few pages out of their book.

trains as hard or harder than anyone, and trains very smart.

knows the hole race better than any other rider in the tour.

i believe there are several other riders that are just as genetically blessed.

Jan for one, but he just doesnt prepare properly and as good a team as T-mobile may be they just don't work towards geting someone to win like postal does. Basso is another one, i think this year he is on par physically with Armstrong, but he hasn't learned how to time trial yet, and again CSC just doesnt do it right. Basso is probably going to lose his podium spot in the long time trial. if CSC had helped drive up the pace yesterday they probably could have dropped the germans like postal did in the earlier stages and Basso could have picked up some needed time on them, and postal probably would have helped. instead they let postal do the work and Basso didnt pick up anything. i doubt armstrong could have been beaten this year but the race would have been a heck of a lot more interesting if CSC and Mobile adopted a stratagy similar to postals.

besides all that, innocent until proven guilty, and to even suspect someone is using drugs just because they are very good at something is silly. until someone says "i dope" or they come up hot in a test, then as far as i'm concerned they don't dope.

You don't run twenty-six miles at five minutes a mile on good looks and a secret recipe.
--Frank Shorter

Frank Shorter said it about the marathon but I think it applies here as well. Lance Armstrong and the USPS team are not doing anything fundamentally different than other riders and teams are doing. USPS is simply doing a much better job of it.

Lance's training schedule is designed by experts and he trains with a singleminded-ness that others have a hard time understanding let alone matching.

The USPS team works together much better than others. If Team Bianchi had pulled together behind Ulrich a bit better, possibly he could have picked up 30 or so seconds on USPS and Armstrong last year. It looked to me like he was out there by himself most of the time.

All teams prepare for the race. USPS goes over every yard of the 2100+ miles in the course as many times as it takes to get it right.

Also it probably helps that Armstrong picked the right parents, but without the rest, that is useless.

Dan

I'm fanatical about the assumption of innocence so I won't go there (though some baseball players do test my faith sorely).

In this particular stage I too think Kloden went early. I posted elsewhere that I'm pretty sure Jan is not too happy with his teammate for messing that finish up. At the pace LA was riding when Kloden attacked (riding with Jan) Kloden could have waited 20-30 meters and then wouldn't have been caught.

However such things are hard to judge and as been pointed out mistakes like that happen alot. Even Zabel screwed up a sprint earlier this season and he has alot more experience with such things than Kloden.

:beer:

Sheesh!

If there were brain-doping drugs, there would have been accusations about Albert Einsten!

Some people are JUST physiologically gifted.

OK. Fair critique Brent. Maybe I'm making too much out of it. I guess I was just so stunned by that fact that he closed a HUGE gap on Kloden with just an amazing burst of speed.


That happens often, with many 'lesser' cyclists. Kloden already attacked and gave everything. Armstrong was still riding in the draft until that moment.

Anyone remember that Vuelta stage in 2002 where a single rider caught another rider within 30 meters of the line? He was chasing for at least 5km and caught him right at the end. It was really cool.

Lance acceleration at the end was impressive, as was Kloden initial accleration when he attacked. Kloden just went a bit to soon.

Carl,

thanks for opening a level headed discussion of not just lance, but doping as well.
ExMachina, no one is accusing Lance of doping, just asking if he could (and he did)
show the explosive power like stage 17 without.

Is it me, or has Lance shown more explosive power this tour than ever before?
I knew he was explosive on climbs, but geeziepeezie where did this come from.
He pulled up to Kloden like he was standing still.

Marty

You DO know Lance is from Alpha Centuri 3, right?

You DO know Lance is from Alpha Centuri 3, right?

LOL. Forget VO2max, hematocrit, lactic acid and all that other nonsence... this is EASILY the best explaination I've seen so far.

:D

I also agree that innocent until prove guilty is the best policy. If it turns out he has been doping then he has to deal with the repercussions and the black mark it will leave on his cycling resume.
As for out sprinting Kloden yesterday, I think it was a combination of Landis burying himself for Lance, Kloden going a split second too early and assuming he had the stage in the bag. It looked like Kloden sat up 15 meters from the line. When he realized Lance was coming he could not react fast enough.

ah at alst some level headed discussion.

I agree that Kloden went a bit early but the moment was created by his momentum and he took the only chance he had.

jan could have blocke lance a bit but the guys just toooo NICE to do that.
Lance has a killer instinct that I would not like to meet in a dark alley (seen the expression on his face after winning lately).

Kloden fading, alnce accelerating, explains it all

Personally, I'm inclined to believe that every rider in the Tour is doping.

As for out sprinting Kloden yesterday, I think it was a combination of Landis burying himself for Lance, Kloden going a split second too early and assuming he had the stage in the bag. It looked like Kloden sat up 15 meters from the line. When he realized Lance was coming he could not react fast enough.

The replay clearly shows that Lance took off just after Kloden looked back and saw he was clear, so Kloden relaxed, thinking he had the stage won. He didn't look again until Lance was already on his wheel and had all the momentum - by which time it was too late for Kloden to hold Lance off. Kloden didn't check back often enough to see Lance coming, or he could have held him off, I think.

As other have said Kloden was slow near the finish. Hell he was sitting up soft-pedaling towards the line there at the end. And a big reason LA had so much speed was that Floyd dropped the hammer and was closing on Kloden. The shock to me is why Tmobile's director wasnt screaming for Kloden to push thru. Landis really closed that gap and gave Lance the platform to launch from. Tmobile had time to see what was happening.

While I agree that Lance was moving at the end, I think it looks faster because of how slow Koden was going once he shot his wad.

are we watching the same tour??

i find Lance's style of riding extremely uninspiring. sitting in the whole way, hardly attacking, and seemingly getting ahead only through the attrition caused by his team mates doing all the hard work. no wonder he has fresh legs to win a sprint. that opinion stated, is this method of winning a great tour going to be the future of racing or will there be teams and riders that will continue to take chances, race all the big tours and classics and not be afraid to attack?

i find Lance's style of riding extremely uninspiring. sitting in the whole way, hardly attacking, and seemingly getting ahead only through the attrition caused by his team mates doing all the hard work. no wonder he has fresh legs to win a sprint. that opinion stated, is this method of winning a great tour going to be the future of racing or will there be teams and riders that will continue to take chances, race all the big tours and classics and not be afraid to attack?

That is a very good point. It seems like the Tours of old had a lot more individualism and not such domination. Unfortunately for us, Lance is a hell of an athlete and along with the combination of the best team on the planet, there really is no touching him. But who are we to judge. They are there to win the tour and that's what they do. They dominate.

I love Lance, I am inspired by his determination and take no Sh&% attitude. Not just on a bike, but when he fought cancer as well. He seems to attack all challenges in his life that way.

I remember reading an article on him in Sports Illustrated a couple of years back. I think it was just after he won his 3rd or 4th tour. Rick Reilly was interviewing him, (I think that was him), and they were out riding. Lance was riding slow so he wouldn't kill Rick. Lance's phone rings and it is a friend who rides for another team. He wanted to know what Lance was doing. Lance said he was biking. The guy couldn't believe it because he was enjoying getting over the tour and he was out at the bars drinking in Europe. That's just the kind of guy Lance is. The day after the tour he is back on his bike riding. Insane.

I think, and Lance attests to this, that the cancer was the best thing for his cycling career. It broke down all his upper body strength from the tri's and really built him into a tour rider. He never was a tour rider beforehand. Combined with all the other genetically freakish attributes that he has towards cycling, I really don't see why he wouldn't dominate. He has the whole package, mentally and physically.

When you are already at that state where you are the top. Its the genetics that determines the winner. A can guarantee you Lance does NOT train more than EVERYONE in TdF. Im sure, there are a few people that train harder than him. They dont win because they arent blessed with as good genetics as lance. Genetic doping is already almost on it way where genes are inserted to certain muscle cells so certain proteins are constantly made. Genetic doping is almost undetectable because it doesnt float in the blood stream. By then, well see even more superhuman biker riders much faster than lance.

He is on something...his bike 6 hours a day!

i find Lance's style of riding extremely uninspiring. sitting in the whole way, hardly attacking, and seemingly getting ahead only through the attrition caused by his team mates doing all the hard work. no wonder he has fresh legs to win a sprint. that opinion stated, is this method of winning a great tour going to be the future of racing or will there be teams and riders that will continue to take chances, race all the big tours and classics and not be afraid to attack?

I've seen this often and it cracks me up! Could not Jan pretend Postal are his teammates also and ride just behind the group for the whole stage also? Could he not then sprint for the finish on his "fresh" legs?

No, you say? Why?

Because you've gotta have your own motor to do it. The same guys splintering the peloton to bits with their torrid pace would also ride Lance to the ground if he were not conditioned properly. Yeah, his team's important, but their tempo must be matched by their leader and he's proven that he is the stronger rider in contention for GC.

I've seen this often and it cracks me up! Could not Jan pretend Postal are his teammates also and ride just behind the group for the whole stage also? Could he not then sprint for the finish on his "fresh" legs?

No, you say? Why?

Because you've gotta have your own motor to do it. The same guys splintering the peloton to bits with their torrid pace would also ride Lance to the ground if he were not conditioned properly. Yeah, his team's important, but their tempo must be matched by their leader and he's proven that he is the stronger rider in contention for GC.

Thank you.

Pretty soon the July bike fans will be on the the NFL training camps opening.

I guess ya just cant say he's better then the rest and let it go at that. Petty won 200 races and the next closest is around 72 wins and i've never,ever heard someone say is he's cheating.Gagne for the dodgers saved like 80 in a row and nobody said anything about dope. Now i belive LA was tested more last year then any other rider,right? So maybe he just works his ass off,is better then the rest,at least in the mountains where everybody else knows thats where he wins it and has a hell of a team. Nope,he must be on dope. Whatever,until they find it,its getting old. Havent they had 6 or 7 years to find it? Maybe its a new way to win,cancer and dope.

I've seen this often and it cracks me up! Could not Jan pretend Postal are his teammates also and ride just behind the group for the whole stage also? Could he not then sprint for the finish on his "fresh" legs?

No, you say? Why?

Because you've gotta have your own motor to do it. The same guys splintering the peloton to bits with their torrid pace would also ride Lance to the ground if he were not conditioned properly. Yeah, his team's important, but their tempo must be matched by their leader and he's proven that he is the stronger rider in contention for GC.


hallelujah!! Someone with an idea of what it'slike to ride in a bike race.
If Lance isn't conditioned, he won't keep up, he won't win.
He wins because he is strong, fast and i able to recover better than his rivals.

If the guy is doping, please find me the drugs.
Until then, innocent till proven guilty.

I think it's a combination of a lot of things, and you guys have given some great thoughts (focused training, genetics, team, etc...)

Here are more reasons for his dominance THIS YEAR:
- Experience and preparation - the guy knows what it takes to win the TDF.
- People saying he is vunerable after last year motivated him throughout the year.
- Quality rivals just didn't show well. Who are the guys that have the talent to beat LA... Ullrich, Hamilton, Vino, maybe Mayo. Vino didn't start. Hamilton crashed out. IMO Ullrich and Mayo miss-timed their peak (Ullrich too late, and Mayo too soon). Basso has to work on his TT to be a serious threat. It will be interesting to see if he can hold on to a podium spot in the last ITT.

hallelujah!! Someone with an idea of what it'slike to ride in a bike race.
If Lance isn't conditioned, he won't keep up, he won't win.
He wins because he is strong, fast and i able to recover better than his rivals.

If the guy is doping, please find me the drugs.
Until then, innocent till proven guilty.


No one is denying his incredible conditioning, but rather, I think, there is a general suspicion that in the highest levels of any endurance sport, doping is common. Also, recall the wording of essentially everyone's (Lance's included) denial: "I have never tested positive for any banned substance."

Note that it's not "I have never used any banned substance" nor "I have never used performance-enhancing substances yet unbanned." Personally, I think he's probably clean; it'd take some remarkable stupidity to risk people thinking that all six of his Tour victories relied on chemistry rather than simple effort, but I'd not discount the possibility of drug use.

LA could really be god riding a Trek,anything is possible.

I've wondered as well, lately. With all the stage wins, I'm thinking, yeah, like hell he's not doping. The guy is 32 and getting STRONGER and beating guys younger than he is. I know cycling is also a lot about experience. FOr instance, older sprinters still win because sprinting isn't always about speed, it's about having a nose for a gap and being savvy. And classics winners are often older because it really requires years of toughness. BUt climbing the alps? I don't know, that's a bit different. I remember wondering about sprinter michael johnson, who was invisible in barcelona but atlanta is 32 and beating guys 8 years younger. As it turns out he probably was on dope.

I've seen this often and it cracks me up! Could not Jan pretend Postal are his teammates also and ride just behind the group for the whole stage also? Could he not then sprint for the finish on his "fresh" legs?

No, you say? Why?

Because you've gotta have your own motor to do it. The same guys splintering the peloton to bits with their torrid pace would also ride Lance to the ground if he were not conditioned properly. Yeah, his team's important, but their tempo must be matched by their leader and he's proven that he is the stronger rider in contention for GC.

I've always been thinking the same thing. It isn't like USPS are all wearing some kind of super suit that only allows them to receive the drafting benefits from each other. When you think about it Armstrong is in a worse position than an Ullrich or a Basso on the major climbs because he doesn't get to draft himself whereas anyone who can keep up with the pace does. I'm glad to see that others realize this is a totally and utterly flawed argument.

Lets talk about the Actovegin Postal got caught disposing of in 2000, the fact that Postal currently employes the same doctor as ONCE did, back in the late 90's when organized team administerd doping was at its heyday. And the case of Joachim Benoit, who was fired by Postal for testing positive for Nandralone (anabolic steroid) yet is back on the team again.

I'd start, but I'd rather hear what you all have to say first.........

Armstrong is a smart cyclist- I constantly go to lectures and training sessions and the one thing they lecture and beat into our heads is that as athletes get older, they can stay close to or maintain their level of fitness as long as they train SMARTER, not HARDER. I know people probably get tired of hearing me say this but there's only one word to explain why Lance seems to get better every year: PERIODIZATION. It's no big secret, there are so many books popping up on the subject, especially lately, since most athletes are finally understanding that with structure to your training, you can actually time when you'll have your best performance, and with this timing, you can win your races. They look at successful athletes like Armstrong, and they're getting it-so they're starting to train smarter. The problem with these athletes, as opposed to Lance is that Lance has been using this program of training for years, whereas most other athletes are just now getting their programs figured out. Every year, the program can be tweaked and fine-tuned, according to how Lance tests when he undergoes the performance testing. It is definitely feasible that Lance can get better and better, and that is why. I'm sure at the end of every season, Chris sits down with all the other coaches Lance uses and analyzes everything Lance did, and they spend months coming up with Lance's new training program. With every weakness that shows up this year, I will guarantee you that they will have a way to train that weakness away so that when he starts his program in January, he'll be ready to race by early May.

Having said all that, sure, genetics plays a big factor. We all know Armstrong's vital stats, and they are impressive. But beyond that, he trains his team and uses them in such a way so that he can pace himself off his team and use them throughout the stage to save his energy. Then at the end of the race, or whenever he's lost his last man, he can use all his stored energy reserves for winning the stage. There's nothing wrong with that- that is what the team is there for. I talked about the Team Time Trial a bit back when people wondered what the point of the TTT was. Back then, I emphasized that I thought the TTT was to show the world how it's not just about the GC contender- it's about how the team works together to help the GC achieve his goal. With 9 riders, Lance can feasibly win every single race, especially when every rider is there to ensure that he can conserve his energy. He doesn't have to go back for water or food, he doesn't have to take on the wind, he doesn't have to chase down the breakaway packs, he just sits back and climbs in the slipstream. Sure, he's working hard, but the team definitely ensures that he will have the energy to finish the day. I feel sorry for the riders without teams that try to head out for the finish alone- Basso had no one, so unless he was fresh that day, he wasn't going to win the stage. Kloden and Ullrich should have worked together to attack Landis and Armstrong, but they chose to be lazy and let Landis do all the pacing. Then when the time came for the sprint, who is going to win? The best rider of the four of them- Basso, Ullrich, Kloden, and Armstrong. Who do you think is the best rider there? Seriously. They should have worked better. If they'd done it smart, they would have ALL traded off the work (not just leaving it to Landis to pace the four of them), or Ullrich and Kloden would have worked together against Landis and Armstrong, then Kloden and Ullrich should have had a plan to attack Armstrong and Landis, and they all would have left Basso in the wind (and we saw how Basso was almost lost in the downhill for a while there, as it seemed as though Ullrich and Kloden began working together, but of course, it was too late by then!). It was a bad strategy for Ullrich and Kloden to pace off Armstrong and Landis, and then expect that they would be better than Armstrong when the time came for the sprint. It was a bad plan, and seeing as though they hadn't won against Armstrong before stage 17, why think after 16.95 stages that THIS time, they'd do it? Not smart.... add that to the fact that Kloden thought he'd won, so he definitely slowed down. I think the only reason why he looked back at that split second was because suddenly, the CROWD went wild, and he was probably thinking "what the...?" and by the time he realized what was going on and accelerated, Lance was already fully accelerated and headed towards the finish. :( So that's a shame, although if Kloden had continued to accelerate instead of slowing down and seen Lance coming much sooner, and not hesitated, maybe he would have had an outside chance of winning. But like Phil and Paul said at one point during the Tour, Kloden just doesn't have the experience yet of being a leader, and when he's the leader, he gets nervous (this is paraphrased). Kloden definitely needs some more wins under his belt (yes, I know he won the German National Championships, just saying he needs more wins and to be groomed a bit more to take over as a team leader, that's all). I bet you the next time he's sprinting towards the finish line, though, he'll know exactly where everyone else in his group is in relation to him!

I don't think Armstrong is doping- when people are accomplished, others will always wonder what they are doing to get to that point. Lance has no obligation to reveal his training methods- that would be suicide. He can do the Lance Chronicles all he wants, but you can bet when it comes down to it, there isn't a lot the Lance Chronicles tell about his training, because to do that is like giving away all his trade secrets to the enemy, and for free. But with the oxygen tents, the supplements, the meals, counting carbs and calories, and his real, honest to goodness, supervised training program, we only see a fraction of what it takes to build someone who is as gifted as Lance into the freakish powerhorse he is.

It also doesn't hurt Lance to focus mostly on the Tour de France too- there are definitely stages he's run over and over in practice rides, both with his teams and alone, so he has an excellent idea of what the course is going to be like. I know Paul and Phil said that by the time the Tour started, Lance and his team had ridden that whole course together as a team TWICE. How many other teams have ridden that course together twice? And then, of course, he rides it alone too, and I bet those other 8 that basically peed blood and gave up their legs for Lance have probably ridden that course on their own time too, which is how they're able to pace those mountain stages so well and make it look like they're skipping over to the ice cream truck to get a snack. Did you all see how those guys up in the front didn't even have to attack? They just kept their pacing consistent while the other riders slowly fatigued and fell off. And in the middle of that, Lance was able to draft behind all 8 of his faithful companions, while just riding at the pace he trained himself (and his team) to ride at. He didn't exert himself any harder than he probably did during his training rides. So when the time came for stage 17, and that sprint to the end, he was probably better prepared for it than the other 4 riders out there.

These are just my guesses from observing, watching the Lance Chronicles, and reading the stuff Chris Carmichael does about his training and all, and then watching the race and listening to Phil and Paul comment on the race- which, by the way, they usually can guess pretty accurately what's going on, since the post-race interviews with Lance confirms what they're saying is happening during the race (at least, 85% of the time!).

Koffee

WOW,

Koffie that was a great post! Filled with informative analysis and well structured logic.
I agree with what you're saying too.

a very good example is Mountain bikers who race the TransAlp, Trans Rockies and Cape Epic type events.
8 days of hard riding in the saddle and the guys who come out in front are not the young stallions but the older more conditioned riders due to as you called it Periodisation based training.
And thats the same methodology carmichael preaches in his training book.
The downside of this type of training is that the older you get the lower the period in which you will perform at your maximum peak.
So in fact we'll more than likely see lance perform at peak for fewer and fewer events. he may to ride more of them to assist with conditioning, but he'll need to ride at a lower state than in the event he needs to peak in.

Like i've said,he hasnt won all of these in a row from being a smart doper but a smart cyclist. He just about comes out and says i'll win it in the mountains and they all know it. Today,if not already you'll see it in the faces of the big boys. I have to say i sure like the way Basso has ridden,wow! All of you that are tired of LA,its going to get flooded. I wish they could do a comparison of a few top teams to show how they get ready for the TDF and see how if any LA and team differ.

i find Lance's style of riding extremely uninspiring. sitting in the whole way, hardly attacking, and seemingly getting ahead only through the attrition caused by his team mates doing all the hard work. no wonder he has fresh legs to win a sprint. that opinion stated, is this method of winning a great tour going to be the future of racing or will there be teams and riders that will continue to take chances, race all the big tours and classics and not be afraid to attack?

Attacking worked in the past because the playing field was much lower and nowone had the teamates to handle those attacks.

If Hinault goes up the road on the Galibier, his rivals aren't going to have strong enough teamates to chase. But that all changes now. It's about riding smart. I find that inspiring.

I wish they could do a comparison of a few top teams to show how they get ready for the TDF and see how if any LA and team differ.


Shokhead, that's the coolest thing I could ever see OLN do- I'm actually going to forward yet another feedback and ask if they are going to do cross comparisons of the different teams training for the tour. I think looking at different styles, techniques, strategies, etc. would give us the best look inside what it takes to train for the Tour.

Koffee

WOW,

Koffie that was a great post! Filled with informative analysis and well structured logic.
I agree with what you're saying too.

a very good example is Mountain bikers who race the TransAlp, Trans Rockies and Cape Epic type events.
8 days of hard riding in the saddle and the guys who come out in front are not the young stallions but the older more conditioned riders due to as you called it Periodisation based training.
And thats the same methodology carmichael preaches in his training book.
The downside of this type of training is that the older you get the lower the period in which you will perform at your maximum peak.
So in fact we'll more than likely see lance perform at peak for fewer and fewer events. he may to ride more of them to assist with conditioning, but he'll need to ride at a lower state than in the event he needs to peak in.


I agree with most of what you say, but it's also become well known in the past... say 5- 10 years that an athlete can maintain their current level of fitness, provided that they continue to train at the same level and intensity. Look at someone like Sally Edwards, who at 25 years old had a max heart rate of something like 182, and now, at 53 years old, still has the same maximum heart rate. Definitely, I can say I haven't maintained the same level and intensity of my maximum fitness, so my maximum heart rate has fallen to about 200 bpm. But the good news is, once I did start training smart, and I kept my level and intensity high, I have been able to maintain this 200 bpm for the past 4 years. For the average, non-to moderate training individual, the number would have fallen much more over a four year period.

Lance will still be able to perform... I think he just needs to be smarter and smarter- you can't beat the clock, but you can certainly stall and slow it as much as possible...

Koffee