patentcad
01-10-10, 07:30 AM
When Jimmy Chanos says the shlit is about to hit the fan, you might want to pay attention (http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/108534/contrarian-investor-sees-economic-crash-in-china?mod=retire-planning).
Foo - Another Uh-oh
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Alfster
01-10-10, 07:38 AM
Are you suggesting I sell my metallurgical coal stocks now?
patentcad
01-10-10, 07:40 AM
Are you suggesting I sell my metallurgical coal stocks now?
I think Chanos may have it wrong this time. That's Chicken Little Talk.
But if he's right, that's a problem.
I think Chanos may have it wrong this time. That's Chicken Little Talk.
But if he's right, that's a problem.
iamlucky13
01-10-10, 02:30 PM
I don't have a good big picture on the finances of China, but I very much doubt "1000 times worse than Dubai." A lot of people have been saying for the last 5+ years that Dubai was going to end up in trouble. I'm actually surprised how smoothly they seem to be taking it.
China has a lot of room to grow economically, so that even as exports fall, they're growing internal trade should help keep their economy on a relatively level keel. That said, there are a lot of pockets of overgrowth or over-investment remaining here and there, and I personally expect them to continue to burst one or two at at a time for the next several years. China will have to deal with dropping exports, and potentially with land overvaluation in their major cities.
The bubble I'm more concerned about is the US deficit and our hobby of printing money whenever things look tight. It's the folks who are warning against very strong inflation in 2-4 years' time that have me worried.
China has a lot of room to grow economically, so that even as exports fall, they're growing internal trade should help keep their economy on a relatively level keel. That said, there are a lot of pockets of overgrowth or over-investment remaining here and there, and I personally expect them to continue to burst one or two at at a time for the next several years. China will have to deal with dropping exports, and potentially with land overvaluation in their major cities.
The bubble I'm more concerned about is the US deficit and our hobby of printing money whenever things look tight. It's the folks who are warning against very strong inflation in 2-4 years' time that have me worried.
coasting
01-10-10, 02:36 PM
I don't have a good big picture on the finances of China, but I very much doubt "1000 times worse than Dubai." A lot of people have been saying for the last 5+ years that Dubai was going to end up in trouble. I'm actually surprised how smoothly they seem to be taking it.
China has a lot of room to grow economically, so that even as exports fall, they're growing internal trade should help keep their economy on a relatively level keel. That said, there are a lot of pockets of overgrowth or over-investment remaining here and there, and I personally expect them to continue to burst one or two at at a time for the next several years. China will have to deal with dropping exports, and potentially with land overvaluation in their major cities.
The bubble I'm more concerned about is the US deficit and our hobby of printing money whenever things look tight. It's the folks who are warning against very strong inflation in 2-4 years' time that have me worried.
that's an excellent post and should not be allowd in foo.
post reported.
just kidding
China has a lot of room to grow economically, so that even as exports fall, they're growing internal trade should help keep their economy on a relatively level keel. That said, there are a lot of pockets of overgrowth or over-investment remaining here and there, and I personally expect them to continue to burst one or two at at a time for the next several years. China will have to deal with dropping exports, and potentially with land overvaluation in their major cities.
The bubble I'm more concerned about is the US deficit and our hobby of printing money whenever things look tight. It's the folks who are warning against very strong inflation in 2-4 years' time that have me worried.
that's an excellent post and should not be allowd in foo.
post reported.
just kidding