Professional Cycling For the Fans - TDF 2010 stage 8 - Station des Rousses - Morzine-Avoriaz 189 km, Sun. Jul 11

profile:

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map:

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we're in the mountains now! not the leg-shattering first day in the alps that we occasionally get.
some contenders (contador comes to mind) will be looking to stamp early authority on the rest
while others will be happy to bide their time and follow wheels & attacks. which of the other contenders
(besides andy schleck) have the chutzpah to launch a preemptive strike on contador?

I'm really looking forward to this stage. My parents used to live in Geneva, so this was a common area to ride for me.

Raced the European triathlon circuit for a couple years in late 80s / early 90s and the last race I did included the Morzine to Avoriaz climb as the end to the cycling leg....then we ran an cross-country 10K up and down the ski area...will bring back memories

I am thinking the attacks will far more serious here than even befoer the tour made this MTF. Considering the field got some time gaps in stage 3 that i dont think anyone fully anticipated.

I cant wait to see Contador fly without a team manager holding him back. Vino will most likely be his body guard until its time to really launch and who will AS have with him now that FS is out.

if contador ramps it up again-like last year-on the first major mountain stage and gains 30 seconds+ on all the other contenders,
he will crack their spirit again and relegate them all to racing for second place. oh sure, there's still more than half the race left
but psychologically and physiologically pulling a 'lance' on everyone again won't help their resolve.

I look for Contador to get 30 secs to 1 minute back here. This is a small version preview of where guys will be on the Tourmalet.

I too think there will be some serious moves here, especially on the last climb. Not a crazy hard climb, but enough to separate anyone having a tough day.

Ill be surprised if Lance finishes within 1:15 of Contador tommorow.

Say goodbye to the pretenders. I hope Alberto goes on the attack. You know he wants to. It's been a tough first week and there are bound to be some tired guys.

Whats the avg. grade on the final climb?

I look for Contador to get 30 secs to 1 minute back here. This is a small version preview of where guys will be on the Tourmalet.

I agree. I think AC will attack near the top. Maybe a couple of km to go. Just enough to get him even with AS and within 30 seconds or so of Cadel.

Whats the avg. grade on the final climb?

Stage 8 climbs
Km 24.0 - Côte de la Petite Joux - 2.3 km of 4.3% - Category 4
Km 73.0 - Côte de Grésin - 4.3 km of 3.9% - Category 4
Km 154.5 - Col de la Ramaz - 14.3 km of 6.8% - Category 1
Km 168.0 - Les Gets - 3.9 km of 4.8% - Category 3
Km 189.0 - Morzine-Avoriaz - 13.6 km of 6.1% - Category 1 (SEE PROFILE BELOW)


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Average only 6.1% but long stretch of 7.5% in the middle. Look for AC to fly the coop at that point. I suspect he will try to put time into everyone else. Depending on how hard he pushes it, I'm guessing around a minute at most on everyone except Andy Schleck. I hope LA can hang around, but I think tomorrow he will be exposed as a pretender.

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Here's the profile from another website. Slightly different. I wonder if it really is 11% for a whole K. That's a long ways!

I doubt AC wants the jersey yet, so he should attack just hard enough so that only Schleck can follow. ;) That or give a break 3-5 minutes.

Looking forward to this one. Astana looked strong yesterday and if I were Contador I'd be looking to make some serious gains on the final climb. My fearless prediction is Contador gaining a couple of minutes on Basso and Schleck, with Wiggins and Armstrong a bit further back and Evans struggling.

Unlike last year, we will be able to see if Armstrong can stay on Contador's wheel, or if he really has lost it.

Seems to me someone like Sastre or Basso may want to attack on the first Cat1 climb although Basso isn't known for his descending skills. They have a lot of time to make up, and few opportunities. I doubt anyone can keep up with Contador's initial acceleration, but the others will have to try and tempo away. For some reason I don't think AC puts big time in Lance tomorrow. I will go out on a limb and say Andy cracks, LA and AC finish within 15 seconds. Cadel is third among the GC contenders. I think Lance gets dropped Tuesday, but I am subject to change my mind.

Richard

What if the field keeps a higher pace than usual, could this wear down a couple of the strong climbers and make for an unexpected stage?

I don't think it's steep enough for much in the way of attacks. AC likes it much steeper before he goes. Likely to see some high general pace type of riding to whittle the field down and drop those GC guys that are 'off' for the day. Especially since Monday is a rest day.

Does anyone know if Contador (even when he was riding for ONCE/Liberty Seguros) has ever had a bad mechanical (like a puncture at the base of a climb) and how he responded to a situation like that?

Also, I like the fact that the silent assassin (Menchov) is totally under the radar at this point and pretty much has been all year.

Im wondering if we might see Saxo go to the front and try to take it to the field to take some of AC's snap away on the final climb.

Rhetorical question: Egoi, you're now down 13 minutes on GC, and you can fly the coop to take mountain points without being chased down. Are you in this Tour to win polka dots, or are you stuck being Sammy's lieutenant in the mountains? My fantasy team is counting on you. :D

I anticipate the pace will get ramped up on the final climb. Sastre needs to try something, as do the Liquigas GC men, and to a lesser extent, Armstrong, Rogers and Sammy Sanchez. A mountain stage that conventional wisdom says doesn't suit Contador, is a natural place for them to try an attack.

Here's the profile from another website. Slightly different. I wonder if it really is 11% for a whole K. That's a long ways!

Thank You.

I think it will be to early in the climb to make much of a difference. I dont see any of the contendors going that far from the finish.

the cream has risen to the top rather quickly, considering the race
(at the conclusion of stage 7) hasn't properly hit the alps yet.
out of the top 38 riders on gc (roughly 6 minutes back or less),
less than a baker's dozen would not be considered "all-rounders"
or stage race gc threats. i think bodes well for the eventual top ten
placings and the quality of attacks and racing. even if contador has
things sewn up relatively early, it's gonna be a dogfight for places 2-10.

It's gonna be a dog fight for all places. I agree AC is the favorite, but he is still down on time to Cadel and Andy, he has to make it up somewhere.

Richard

the cream has risen to the top rather quickly, considering the race
(at the conclusion of stage 7) hasn't properly hit the alps yet.
out of the top 38 riders on gc (roughly 6 minutes back or less),
less than a baker's dozen would not be considered "all-rounders"
or stage race gc threats. i think bodes well for the eventual top ten
placings. even if contador has things sewn up relatively early, it's gonna
be a dogfight for places 2-10.

You can thank the BBox'ers for that. Good job turning this into an interesting stage. Too bad Thomas Voeckler was more of a fizzle than anything else. Poor guy had such a great and memorable Tour several years back, and it was one of the only times I was rooting hard for a Frenchman. He's kind of silly though...he really lives off that moment (well, at least French TV does), and never really has much to offer during an "attack".

To those who think AC won't try anything...he's got to try something sometime. He can't wait for one or two stages and take his chances. There are other contenders who are still better than him in the TT. I suspect he will do a measured attack, and if no one can follow, why not ride away?

I am SO looking forward to seeing what old man Lance can do after a full year of dedicated training. There's not a chance in hell he can match AC's acceleration, but I don't see why he couldn't hang with anyone else. He will either be exposed, or will amaze everyone.

You can thank the BBox'ers for that. Good job turning this into an interesting stage. Too bad Thomas Voeckler was more of a fizzle than anything else. Poor guy had such a great and memorable Tour several years back, and it was one of the only times I was rooting hard for a Frenchman. He's kind of silly though...he really lives off that moment (well, at least French TV does), and never really has much to offer during an "attack".

To those who think AC won't try anything...he's got to try something sometime. He can't wait for one or two stages and take his chances. There are other contenders who are still better than him in the TT. I suspect he will do a measured attack, and if no one can follow, why not ride away?

I am SO looking forward to seeing what old man Lance can do after a full year of dedicated training. There's not a chance in hell he can match AC's acceleration, but I don't see why he couldn't hang with anyone else. He will either be exposed, or will amaze everyone.

you could make a case for evans, but other than he, whom else did you have in mind??

Well I guess it depends you want you mean by contender. This TT is flat, so Wiggins, Rogers if you consider them contenders. I was pulling for Tony Martin, but he screwed the pooch today. Man he is one talented rider, and one day maybe he will be a protected GC contender.

Richard

You can thank the BBox'ers for that. Good job turning this into an interesting stage. Too bad Thomas Voeckler was more of a fizzle than anything else. Poor guy had such a great and memorable Tour several years back, and it was one of the only times I was rooting hard for a Frenchman. He's kind of silly though...he really lives off that moment (well, at least French TV does), and never really has much to offer during an "attack".

To those who think AC won't try anything...he's got to try something sometime. He can't wait for one or two stages and take his chances. There are other contenders who are still better than him in the TT. I suspect he will do a measured attack, and if no one can follow, why not ride away?

I am SO looking forward to seeing what old man Lance can do after a full year of dedicated training. There's not a chance in hell he can match AC's acceleration, but I don't see why he couldn't hang with anyone else. He will either be exposed, or will amaze everyone.

There are not other contenders who are better than AC in the TT. He was the Spanish TT champion last year. He out tt'd Fabian Cancellara last year at the TdF to win the ITT. Which contender did you have in mind? This is the same nonsense that people thought about AC last year. I do think you're right, however. AC won't wait that long to attack. He's young, confident, and brash. He'll attack sooner than later.

If it really is 11% in that particular section for a whole kilometer, that would be the ideal place for AC to attack if he wanted yellow, but it's almost so ideal that everyone should be expecting it. Also, I really doubt that he wants the yellow jersey right now, unless he can get it and put 2-3 minutes into Schleck and Basso, which is probably not going to happen on this climb.

Also, I like the fact that the silent assassin (Menchov) is totally under the radar at this point and pretty much has been all year.

if he has his Giro 2009 form, they all better be worried

I just missed it. Did LA crashed.

Nice of Astana to push it at the front while Armstrong was down.

Nice of Astana to push it at the front while Armstrong was down.

Did they push it or just maintain the same tempo?

Remember what happened when Lance crashed on Luz Ardeden?

Remember what happened when Lance crashed on Luz Ardeden?

Better yet, do you remember what LA and Team Discovery did to Mayo when he crashed on the cobbles in '04? I excerpted this from the Guardian:

"Armstrong, Tyler Hamilton and Jan Ullrich decided the opportunity to eliminate at least one dangerous rival was too good to miss, and their teams united: the Texan's blue-clad US Postal, the New Englander's green and white Phonaks, and the pink of Ullrich's Telekom. They produced a massive injection of speed in the run-in to the second cobbled section at Gruson, with 15 miles remaining. By then Mayo and his team were looking distinctly gruesome, despite support from Moreau, Hushovd's Crédit Agricoles, and Menchov's Islas Baleares. "

I'm pretty sure the rule is that you don't attack the yellow jersey if there's a crash.

full link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2004/jul/07/tourdefrance2004.tourdefrance

Laggard come on Astana at the front at that time. They weren't there before or since.

Richard

Nice of Astana to push it at the front while Armstrong was down.

If they had pushed the tempo, Armstrong would not have gotten back to the peloton so (relatively) easily. Rough day for him so far though.

So this is Armstrong riding clean, huh? :lol:

He's going to need some Landis juice tomorrow.

Better yet, do you remember what LA and Team Discovery did to Mayo when he crashed on the cobbles in '04? I excerpted this from the Guardian:

"Armstrong, Tyler Hamilton and Jan Ullrich decided the opportunity to eliminate at least one dangerous rival was too good to miss, and their teams united: the Texan's blue-clad US Postal, the New Englander's green and white Phonaks, and the pink of Ullrich's Telekom. They produced a massive injection of speed in the run-in to the second cobbled section at Gruson, with 15 miles remaining. By then Mayo and his team were looking distinctly gruesome, despite support from Moreau, Hushovd's Crédit Agricoles, and Menchov's Islas Baleares. "

I'm pretty sure the rule is that you don't attack the yellow jersey if there's a crash.

full link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2004/jul/07/tourdefrance2004.tourdefrance

Yeah, well, the rules are different if a cancer survivor crashes.

I'm ****ing loving this. And they still have a mountain to go today. :)

Oh no LA fall back from peloton. Can this be the sign for lance

It's a sign alright. I bet JB wishes they had kept AC happy.

Richard

It's a sign alright. I bet JB wishes they had kept AC happy.

Richard

+1.

Lance is wishing he had retired last year.

Yea about my out on a limb prediction my dog did that

Richard

Vino pulling out the dagger, eyeing Contador's back?

I'm ****ing loving this. And they still have a mountain to go today. :)

Slow down, Rog, give Lance a chance, and there's still one more climb left... and I just saw his team car pass him a bottle with an "XXX" written on it. :)

Nice of Astana to push it at the front while Armstrong was down.

Are you watching the same race as me? It was Sky that initiated the brutality as soon as they hit the climb. I'm thinking it was done specifically to destroy Armstrong. The attack made no sense otherwise.

Slow down, Rog, give Lance a chance, and there's still one more climb left... and I just saw his team car pass him a bottle with an "XXX" written on it. :)

... or was it a can of "spiked spinach". :lol: