Professional Cycling For the Fans - Odds Armstrong wins a stage

I bet he does. He's got a huge ego and force of will. I can't believe he wants to leave Stage 8 as the last memory people have of him in the TDF.

I think he drops a bit more time, in the Alps, recovers a bit, and goes into the Pyranees with a very long leash. Then he's free to attack early to get a stage (or to be up the road to help Levi) ala Hincapie and Pla d'Adet.

0 chance.

If they let him go he won't be alone and, based on his performance so far he will either crash into the other guys (repeatedly) and/or get dropped. He can't win a sprint with 5 to 10 young guys, all of whom want to beat him.

Sadly he is done.

I don't know. There are a couple stages that should suit him and even the ITT theoretically, but it all depends on whether he gets his form back. I doubt the GC favourites would be comfortable letting him go in a breakaway unless he's 30 minutes or so behind. And would a stage win even be much of a consolation for him?

I think he will def try for a stage win.

0 chance.

He can't win a sprint with 5 to 10 young guys, all of whom want to beat him.

Sadly he is done.

He doesn't have the form to ride with Contador, etc. But he can still outclimb most of the peleton. Very good chance he could ride away from his breakaway companions on a final climb.



I doubt the GC favourites would be comfortable letting him go in a breakaway unless he's 30 minutes or so behind.

This is why he should work for Leipheimer in the next two Alpine stages. Help Leipheimer, drop off and lose time. By the Pyranees, he's got enough leesh to be let go.


And would a stage win even be much of a consolation for him

Would you rather have people's last TDF memory of you be 1) soloing to a stage win up the Tourmalet, or 2) not even being able to keep up with your teammates on Stage 8?

Slim to none.

Would you rather have people's last TDF memory of you be 1) soloing to a stage win up the Tourmalet, or 2) not even being able to keep up with your teammates on Stage 8?

Yes, but there's a reason he couldn't keep up with his teammates, and it wasn't just the crashes. He looks in seriously poor form. I'd be very surprised if he has it in him to win a stage - especially not the Tourmalet...

There's a difference between being good for one day, and being good for 21 days.

And I think people are overstating how bad his form is. I think he very likely would have lost time on Stage 8 without the crashes, but the crashes, and the ensuing chase at the wrong time made him look worse than he was.

Also after the little pileup on the Cat 3 climb, he was done, he knew it, and he packed it in. Had he still been in the mix, he would not have lost as much time on the final climb as he did.

Note, I'm not saying he would still be in the race but for the crashes. I am saying there's still a bit left to Armstrong.

Yes, but there's a reason he couldn't keep up with his teammates, and it wasn't just the crashes. He looks in seriously poor form. I'd be very surprised if he has it in him to win a stage - especially not the Tourmalet...

This is the key point. He has looked bad on every stage except the opening prologue (which was very short). I'm a fan of his but he doesn't have the legs or lungs anymore. He is making mistakes on the road, is tentative, and no longer has the legs.

Can he regain some composure and stick with the peloton, sure. Can he attack and win a stage. Not in my opinion.

Also, keep in mind the humiliation and embarrassment if he attacks on a mountain top finish and none of the big men of the Tour react because he is no threat. I don't think he will want that video (along with the video of him getting out-sprinted by a nobody for the finish as his last highlight.

It's going to be tough. I don't think he can win the TT. He hasn't had great TT form since the comeback. He'll have to beat specialists like Cancellara, Dave Z, etc. Yes, it will be late in the Tour and those guys might not be as good as normal, but they'll save up all the energy they can for that stage. If the GC is still close Evans & Contador could put up strong times as well.

Aside from that, what stages are good for him? Stages 9 & 10 finish after a descent. Those look good for breakaways, but it's too soon. He won't have a huge leash yet and he still has to help Levi.

Stage 11 looks like a sprint.

Stage 12 looks good for a break, but it suits a punchy guy like Gerrans. If Lance made it to the finish there someone would probably outsprint him.

Stage 13 has breakaway written all over it, but there aren't any big climbs to weed out the guys with a good finishing kick.

Stage 14 is a summit finish where he should be helping Levi.

Stage 15 is an HC climb followed by a descent. This may be his best shot. How about a Vino/Lance duel? That would be fun. Stage 16 is similar, but with more flat ground before the finish.

Stage 17 is the queen stage, and the GC guys will probably finish that one first. If not, Lance would probably get outclimbed by a KOM guy.

18's a sprint, 19 is the TT, and 20 is the final stage.

Here's the problem- what if Levi hangs in there until stage 17? Could you imagine if the roles were reversed? Would Levi ever be given the freedom to chase a stage win in those circumstances? You can argue that he's a legend and he deserves to salvage his last Tour, but he has preached helping the team. I think it would be a rare circumstance that him going for a stage win would actually help Levi.

He has to hope Levi is done after Stage 14 and he can give it a go on Stage 15 or 16.

Stage 14 is a summit finish where he should be helping Levi.

Stage 15 is an HC climb followed by a descent. This may be his best shot. How about a Vino/Lance duel? That would be fun. Stage 16 is similar, but with more flat ground before the finish.

Stage 17 is the queen stage, and the GC guys will probably finish that one first. If not, Lance would probably get outclimbed by a KOM guy.

18's a sprint, 19 is the TT, and 20 is the final stage.

Here's the problem- what if Levi hangs in there until stage 17? Could you imagine if the roles were reversed? Would Levi ever be given the freedom to chase a stage win in those circumstances? You can argue that he's a legend and he deserves to salvage his last Tour, but he has preached helping the team. I think it would be a rare circumstance that him going for a stage win would actually help Levi.

He has to hope Levi is done after Stage 14 and he can give it a go on Stage 15 or 16.

He can do this and still help Leipheimer. Having Armstrong in an early break helps Levi. It's exactly how Hincapie won the Queen stage of the Tour in 2005.

After he's lost enough time that he has a long leash, he goes in an early break. If Levi needs him, he's there to drop back and help. (and with his present form, he's probably not that much help at the end of the day if he's ahd to climb with the lead group to get here, but more help if he's dropping back from the break.) If not, he can attack the break at the end and try to pick off a stage.

And if anyone still cares about Armstrong's placing enough to chase, that alleviates Radio Shack from chasing and helps Leipheimer.

And he can sit in on the break with the excuse that he's just up the road to help Leipheimer, mark the break, and can't work.


Assuming that Leipheimer has a shot to get on the podium, Shack can advance that by keeping Horner Kloden, Brackovich, and Popo with Leipheimer, and sending Armstrong up the road.

Note, I'm not saying he would still be in the race but for the crashes. I am saying there's still a bit left to Armstrong.

Sure, it's also entirely possible that does get his form back, especially when he relaxes a little (comparatively) for a couple days. He also will be a contender in the ITT imo.

One other thing to keep in mind. . .a big part of Armstrong's competitiveness is his intimidation of other competitors. This has been true with Merckx, Hinault, etc. . .they were viewed as superhumans, etc. Now he is just another cyclist past his prime. He gets no respect from the peloton anymore and they know they can beat him. There are many young riders a few years go that would have not even tried to beat him. . now, they will all want to be in a break with him and beat him.

Merlin, I get what you're saying, but to me Armstrong isn't the best guy to send in a break because he could actually be useful in pushing the pace early on a big climb. Wouldn't it make more sense to put Popo in the break?

The whole go in a break and drop back thing always seems to work better in theory. Most of the time the guy in the break is dead tired already and the best he can do is hand off a bottle and maybe take a 1-minute pull.

ZERO. TT would be the best chance but that would take a miracle. Any other stages, won't happen. Some have suggested he might get a stage because he isn't a threat to the GC. Even if that were true, why would he want to win a stage that was uncontested by the GC contenders?

Would seem a bit pathetic if you ask me.

See my sig line...nuff said

Of course he's gonna win a stage...duh!

He's 13' back so no one will bother with him now.

Of course he's gonna win a stage...duh!

He's 13' back so no one will bother with him now.

OK, if you're so confident, you can back him on Betfair at 3.2 (decimal odds - equivalent to about 9/4) to win a stage. Easy money, go for it.

^ unfortunately, you can't place a bet there from the U.S.

And while I started this thread saying I bet he does win a stage, I'm thinking I'd want a little bit better odds before I put my money where my keypad is.

The odds for Armstrong to win the Tour are always skewed by the "Lance fanboy" crowd, so I'm thinking that would be true with these odds as well for a stage win.

Of course he's gonna win a stage...duh!

He's 13' back so no one will bother with him now.

Thats not quite true. It is unsure how good or bad his form is, my bet it the guys actully hter know far better than we do.

If his problems so far have mainly been bad luck then even though he is not a threat himself he would still be a very strong rider. That means as long as Levi is still in the mix the other teams are not going to be comfortable with him up the road. They are not going to cover him as much as they would a contender, but he will not be totally ignored either.

^ which is why I think he has to loose more time before he becomes a threat to win a stage.

^ unfortunately, you can't place a bet there from the U.S.

And while I started this thread saying I bet he does win a stage, I'm thinking I'd want a little bit better odds before I put my money where my keypad is.

The odds for Armstrong to win the Tour are always skewed by the "Lance fanboy" crowd, so I'm thinking that would be true with these odds as well for a stage win.

Then maybe you should try to find a place where you can bet against him. ;)

JB has publicly said it is all over for LA now so they will support Levi.

Scratch Gerrans from stage 12. He's out with a broken arm now. He was on my fantasy team.

I think the odds are pretty good he can win a stage. The overall is not an option anymore but a stage is defintely possible, and i am sure he will try and win the time trial.

Very low, closer to 0% than 50%.

Next thread: Odds Armstrong not finishing the Tour?

i think lance is broken and there's a better chance of him bowing out than winning a stage.

ed rader

no I don't think he'll bail...it's his last tour and he'll finish it. Although I am sure he is not very comfortable today, with three crashes. He must have a really sore back and that is going to take a few days...I fell on my back a couple of times and I can testify that it hurts like hell for days, and I'm sure it's happened to many of us. But we didn't have to climb the alps!

I wouldn't bet on him winning a stage.
They're not gonna let him ride away, and I doubt he has the form to drop the leaders.
His best role would be to be a super domestique for Levi--kinda like Hinualt was for Lemond in '86.

I wouldn't bet on him winning a stage.
They're not gonna let him ride away, and I doubt he has the form to drop the leaders.
His best role would be to be a super domestique for Levi--kinda like Hinualt was for Lemond in '86.

...except that The Badger would disregard your disrespectful classification of him ever being remotely close to a "super domestique", whatever that is.

1986 TdF, Hinault:
- 3 stage victories, polka dot jersey, 2nd overall, combativity award, 5 days in the maillot jaune. "Super domestique"? :roflmao2:

Forget about Lance for a minute, I'd like to see Levi get 1 stage victory... :lol:

I wouldn't bet on him winning a stage.
They're not gonna let him ride away, and I doubt he has the form to drop the leaders.
His best role would be to be a super domestique for Levi--kinda like Hinualt was for Lemond in '86.

A Badger amoung the pigeons perhaps, not a super domestique.

No telling how many people he punched out that year, either.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqMqCc1Qy7E

I think it's hard to believe that either AS or AC will let him go... they will use any attack by LA as a challenge to the other contenders...so he won't get away...and if he doesn't ...there is no way he will win the stage....it was all pretty obvious for the last couple stages....LA is one bad competitor...but he is too old, and too slow...and doesn't have the explosiveness he used to have that the young guys have...

I can appreciate it all. I'm in my early 60's and don't even have the power I had in my 50's.... hopefully a slow downward transition.... but it is obvious that LA would be blown off if he had experienced zero crashes...

Thanks for the memories...there is a time for the older guys to know that the younger guys are actually SUPERIOR...as both AS and AC are compared to LA

"I ain't as good as I once was. But I'm as good once as I ever was." - Toby Keith

My mantra as well. Good enough for a stage win? I guess we'll just have to wait and see . . .

Good grief guys. You think Lance went from a top five tour contender last year to someone who can't hold the wheel of the guy in 86th place? Really? He had a bad day. The crashed added up, the chases added up, but the nail I think was the heat Saturday. I have noticed as I have gotten older the heat zaps me now, and it was the final straw for Lance. He will recover some if he can keep from crashing. He had a bad day like Landis in 06. That didn't mean Landis could hold a wheel anymore. Had a bad day. Lance's bad days are noticable now because he has no margin of error. He would have needed things to go perfectly to podium. Now that's over, but Lance is a strong rider. He rode Popo off of his wheel, but of course Popo pulled him for a ways.

Lance is going to make a mark on this tour. I suspect his mark will be handing out punishment. Imagine tomorrow (maybe too soon), or next week Radio Shack setting tempo right out of the gate. I suspect that will be Lance's mark. Pain for the entire stage if you want to keep up. The field will be shattered in the first hour with riders all over the course. Hell them may even drop Levi. A strong man is going to win this tour. I wish for Basso or Rogers, but I suspect it will be AS or AC. As long as Evans doesn't win it's all good.

Richard

Good grief guys. You think Lance went from a top five tour contender last year to someone who can't hold the wheel of the guy in 86th place? Really? He had a bad day. The crashed added up, the chases added up, but the nail I think was the heat Saturday. I have noticed as I have gotten older the heat zaps me now, and it was the final straw for Lance. He will recover some if he can keep from crashing. He had a bad day like Landis in 06. That didn't mean Landis could hold a wheel anymore. Had a bad day. Lance's bad days are noticable now because he has no margin of error. He would have needed things to go perfectly to podium. Now that's over, but Lance is a strong rider. He rode Popo off of his wheel, but of course Popo pulled him for a ways.

Lance is going to make a mark on this tour. I suspect his mark will be handing out punishment. Imagine tomorrow (maybe too soon), or next week Radio Shack setting tempo right out of the gate. I suspect that will be Lance's mark. Pain for the entire stage if you want to keep up. The field will be shattered in the first hour with riders all over the course. Hell them may even drop Levi. A strong man is going to win this tour. I wish for Basso or Rogers, but I suspect it will be AS or AC. As long as Evans doesn't win it's all good.

Richard

lance also had a "bad day" on the cobbles and he's crashed more times this year than he did in his whole career.

"he's dead, jim".

ed rader

I guess Lance brings out so much emotion in people that they cannot think logically. Can Lance winf the TDF no, I didn't think he would win. I don't really like the guy. That being said his threshold power hasn't dropped 50% since July 1st. What has changed is he is older and doesn't recover quickly. He can't hang day in and day out. Now that being said his power to weight is probably still right there with Contador, but not everyday. If Lance wants to win a stage he can ride anybody the GC's allow to follow him off of his wheel. Again in a one day race. He may pay the next day by losing 20 minutes. Do you really think Chavanel is a superior TDF rider to Lance? Do you think he has a higher power to weight than Lance? Really?

Richard

reef58

do you read what you write? "He rode Popo off of his wheel, but of course Popo pulled him for a ways."

Of course he can ride his team off his wheel after they pull for 5-7,5KM... that is what all GC contenders can do...

He is definitely the GREATEST...but way beyond his prime....Time to give it up...

I agree with the previous posters who said that the odds of an LA stage win are slim to none. The soreness that he's undoubtedly feeling from his crashes won't help his cause either.

I used to be a fan of Lance but lost respect for him during last year's Tour. But he would regain that respect if he were to come out and say that he would be Levi's domestique. Levi was Lance's domestique for so many years, it would be a nice way to thank Levi for what he did all those years to help Lance win 7 Tour titles. It might not be the way that Lance wanted to go out in his last Tour, but it would be the correct and manly thing to do.

I don't really have anything to give up. Not a Lance fan. I just don't understand why everyone thinks he has plummeted to such low ability he cannot keep up with a rider like Chavanel?

Richard

Lance may win this stage yet

The whole go in a break and drop back thing always seems to work better in theory. Most of the time the guy in the break is dead tired already and the best he can do is hand off a bottle and maybe take a 1-minute pull.

Jens is the exception to the rule. ;)

Jens is the exception to the rule. ;)

Yes, that was a pretty heroic effort today. By the time he'd finished pacing Schleck he was so cooked he almost fell off the bike - but still recovered to come in with the Leipheimer group.

There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then). This means a TT win (doubtful but possible) or a solo breakaway a la Landis but the reality is he has never been able to do this and now doesn't have the ability.

To the folks who don't understand why he could be podium last year and this year is not capable of staying with the leaders . . well, it does happen fast. Look at LeMond (though he blames everyone else doping). The young guns are GETTING STRONGER week over week, year over year. Lance (and all older athletes) are GETTING WEAKER. So they are getting faster, he is getting slower which magnifies the relative comparisons.

I think this thread is about his ability to win a stage not make the podium, or even stay with the GC guys.

Richard


There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then). This means a TT win (doubtful but possible) or a solo breakaway a la Landis but the reality is he has never been able to do this and now doesn't have the ability.

To the folks who don't understand why he could be podium last year and this year is not capable of staying with the leaders . . well, it does happen fast. Look at LeMond (though he blames everyone else doping). The young guns are GETTING STRONGER week over week, year over year. Lance (and all older athletes) are GETTING WEAKER. So they are getting faster, he is getting slower which magnifies the relative comparisons.

There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then). This means a TT win (doubtful but possible) or a solo breakaway a la Landis but the reality is he has never been able to do this and now doesn't have the ability.

To the folks who don't understand why he could be podium last year and this year is not capable of staying with the leaders . . well, it does happen fast. Look at LeMond (though he blames everyone else doping). The young guns are GETTING STRONGER week over week, year over year. Lance (and all older athletes) are GETTING WEAKER. So they are getting faster, he is getting slower which magnifies the relative comparisons.

Wow, you are an expert.

Jens is the exception to the rule. ;)

Lol. I came back to this thread, to pull up the quote:)

That was an example of how it is supposed to work.

I was thinking however, wheter Saxo would not have been better off letting Jens sit on the last kilometer or so on the Madeline, and then using him on the descent and the run in.

I guess it was a calcualte decision of whether he could hang to the top with AC and AS, and how you get the most time on everyone else total.

There is NO way the peloton will let him get into a break. They are very careful about who gets into the breaks and for a variety of reasons he will not be allowed to go into a break with more than 1 or 2 folks (maybe not even then).

Note that my hypothesis that starts the thread is dependent on Armstrong dropping some more time. If he gets 20 plus minutes down, his leash gets a bit longer.

Word has it that Armstrong is going to save up all his energy for the Champs Elysees. He is now a sprinter.