Classic & Vintage - I had an Idea. Thoughts?

Hello everyone,

I recently had an idea while having a look at some keyword statistics as well as my analytics data for my blog. A rather large number of people seem to be searching for a "Vintage Bicycle Price Guide". So evidently I've come to the conclusion that I think it would be a great idea for us to come up with something like this. It could provide a large resource for a large number of people who are looking to purchase a vintage bicycle, it would be hosted on a collaboration software like Google Docs, and therefore it would always be growing, relevant, and most importantly... FREE!

Obviously there are lots of things that need to be determined before going ahead with something like this. I think the main guidelines for setting a price and what criteria would be analyzed could be something along the these lines for each entry:

Make: ie Bianchi
Model: ie Strada
Year: ie 1987
Price: $___.__ to $___.__

Ok simple enough, now we have to take into account thing such as condition, market, components, and then determine a price. I guess the easiest way to do this would be to set a standard that would be assumed in every case given and could be outlined at the top of the document along the lines of...

1) Condition is assumed to be 9/10 but ridden
2) Components are assumed to be original
3) Market is assumed to be LA aka top market value
4) All prices in USD

The scope of something like this would be enormous, this is the main constraint to going ahead with such a project coupled with different ideas about the value of certain bikes. That being said, it can be like a wiki and consistently evolve. We could also limit the years of production or have multiple guides for different decades etc.

I guess all I am looking for is to see if there would be any interest in contributing to a resource such as this.

Here is an example of a Gogle Docs Form that puts all of the information automatically into a spreadsheet that can be edited and shared

Test Form (http://www.cycleswap.ca/vintage-bicycle-price-guide/)

and here are the results of an entry and how all entries will be added etc.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Apvzl-xf9nYvdFVJajBzanczUkRlYnZxMVZsZnVJSEE&output=html

This is very very primitive and Alpha stage just to give everyone an idea of what can be done through collaboration. What are your thoughts? Do you think it's feasible?

Something like an NADA blue book for bicycles?

Random thoughts: maybe original new price in the year it was sold; build options.

I'm not sure how (for example) a price contributor in Wichita will know what the top market price in LA (Los Angeles?) is.

Rather than specific models, you might have better luck with more generic advice, e.g. "A Japanese made CroMo mid 80s bike in good condition with original Shimano 105 components, early indexed downtube shifters, and Biopace chainring will run you about X dollars. An Italian blah mid 80s blah Campy blah Y dollars.

Not feasible.
Price varies widely by region and changes on an almost weekly basis.
Trends come and go.

Something like an NADA blue book for bicycles?

Random thoughts: maybe original new price in the year it was sold; build options.

I'm not sure how (for example) a price contributor in Wichita will know what the top market price in LA (Los Angeles?) is.

Rather than specific models, you might have better luck with more generic advice, e.g. "A Japanese made CroMo mid 80s bike in good condition with original Shimano 105 components, early indexed downtube shifters, and Biopace chainring will run you about X dollars. An Italian blah mid 80s blah Campy blah Y dollars.

I can agree with all of that.

The different markets is definitely the hardest part and I like the Idea of going more general.

The only problem with being general is it leaves more possibility for confusion but it may be a valid point to look at components just as much as the frame.

ever tried buying a gun online? it's impossible to find a remotely decent deal on gunbroker now because everyone and their brother has a reserve set at what blue book value is. as already stated, value varies wildly by region. Condition is in the eye of the viewer. sellers tend to think things are in better condition than they are, or at least the less informed ones do. I think such a book would serve to kill the market.

Ok, I'll play:

1) Rather than making assumptions about market and such simply have a column for place of sale. eBay, CL, or other would be acceptable entries as well.
2) I would come up with a standardized grading scale for users to rate against, with a disclaimer that there still would be variability based on how different folks interpreted the scale.
3) The Google Docs form is a good idea but I wouldn't have the spreadsheet itself world writable.
4) You could also expand it to include components on the bike. Basics like FD/RD/Shifters/Wheels/Crank. Maybe?

In the end, I think more data points would be better than fewer.

I don't think it would be as an enormous an undertaking as you think. Part of collaboration is to spread the load. However, nothing is truly collaborative...there has to be an overseer(s) of some sort...

Not feasible. Price varies widely by region and changes on an almost weekly basis.


The different markets is definitely the hardest part and I like the Idea of going more general.

Which is why you list the place of sale and let the user figure out how that relates to their own market.

Which is why you list the place of sale and let the user figure out how that relates to their own market.

Really good points khatfull. I like your point about potentially adding more columns with regards to place of sale (CL/Ebay etc) and especially about adding the components tog give a greater amount of detail.

Wih regards to the gun sale issues, I can see how this could become a problem if there is a document with so much clout that it determines the market instead of the market determining itself, that being said, I intend for this to be more of a guideline than a set in stone pricing resource.

I think I will think over this for a bit and hopefully come up with something functional. The beauty of this type of collaboration is that it is a never ending process. The only other thing I can think of is maybe suggesting that people add the prices they have actually paid, if there is a huge anomoly that is just a new buyer who over paid that can be moderated.

Thanks for all of the input and keep it coming!

Seems to me that checking out completed Ebay auctions, in conjunction with a glance at Craigslist listings, in markets similar to one's own, can give a reasonably informed person a reasonable estimate of value. By reasonably informed I mean he/she has some knowledge about various frame materials and component groups. I'm not convinced that your database would get them much closer to an actual value for a specific bicycle.

Another point - suppose you launch the document and it turns into everything you hope it will be. Might not such a resource help to drive up prices in the used market? I suppose that could be a good or bad thing, depending on whether one is buying or selling. Lots of people on this forum find deals on great bikes because, through years of enthusiasm, they've gathered knowledge that the seller lacks. If you put all that information out there for anyone with a keyboard, fewer "deals" might be the end result. Just thinking out loud; no doubt there are other views.

I'd be more interested to see some statistical analysis, and any spreadsheet would need to take any factors into account before being published.

A good test of the waters would be to take a single model, say, Centurion Ironmans, in a hot market like New York, and to populate a distribution curve over a period of several months. Or you could do several different types of markets separately with the same bike, so you can compare directly the regional differences. That seems to be the best way to understand anything about historical markets. You'll also get to figure out what types of lineshapes things like this take, which is scientifically interesting.

Disclosure: I'm about half engineer, half scientist. My experience in statistics involves learning it on my own because it's valuable. My knowledge in marketing involves being an all-around tightwad.

Seems to me that checking out completed Ebay auctions, in conjunction with a glance at Craigslist listings, in markets similar to one's own, can give a reasonably informed person a reasonable estimate of value. By reasonably informed I mean he/she has some knowledge about various frame materials and component groups. I'm not convinced that your database would get them much closer to an actual value for a specific bicycle.

Another point - suppose you launch the document and it turns into everything you hope it will be. Might not such a resource help to drive up prices in the used market? I suppose that could be a good or bad thing, depending on whether one is buying or selling. Lots of people on this forum find deals on great bikes because, through years of enthusiasm, they've gathered knowledge that the seller lacks. If you put all that information out there for anyone with a keyboard, fewer "deals" might be the end result. Just thinking out loud; no doubt there are other views.


I'd be more interested to see some statistical analysis, and any spreadsheet would need to take any factors into account before being published.

A good test of the waters would be to take a single model, say, Centurion Ironmans, in a hot market like New York, and to populate a distribution curve over a period of several months. Or you could do several different types of markets separately with the same bike, so you can compare directly the regional differences. That seems to be the best way to understand anything about historical markets. You'll also get to figure out what types of lineshapes things like this take, which is scientifically interesting.

Disclosure: I'm about half engineer, half scientist. My experience in statistics involves learning it on my own because it's valuable. My knowledge in marketing involves being an all-around tightwad.

I can understand the concern that something like this may drive up prices, that being said the prices are already outrageous in my market to the point where I think the bubble will burst soon as the market is becoming saturated with junk, and based on CL posts, people are no longer happy about it. I think the market would regulate itself whether or not a documents such as this exists or not.

I am with Diego when it comes to the interesting statistics that a document similar to this could produce. I think that it would be great to see the kind of data creation that could be recorded. I am a little skeptical as to how many people would participate in this kind of activity. I feel as though avid flippers and collector's may be a little scared off by its implications, as jbonamici has suggested, and that the average consumer of used vintage bicycles may not be all that interested in participating. That being said, the google analytics data I have seen shows that there is a demand for a "Vintage Bicycle Price Guide". The real question is whether or not a price guide means I giant spreadsheet with all sorts of names and prices, or if it means simply common ways to determine the approximate value of a bicycle.

The problem with ebay history is that it only goes back a couple of weeks.

I'm on the side of the market fluctuates geographically and as time goes by, trends develop, etc. However I think the idea of a "WikiCycles" is a great idea. I think all of us have used sites like sheldonbrown.org and others for reference and to self educate. Why not have a site that was a wiki style site for bicycles? This model exists for cars, video game guides, and I'm sure many other things.

With a "WikiCycles" users with forum like moderators can publish short articles on bicycles, components or repair techniques that they have the most experience with. For a relative new comer to the bicycle world I think this would be very useful. I have quite a bit of knowledge on Asian Roadsters, but next to know knowledge about vintage road bikes. This could be the next step from the forums, where albeit there is a wealth of valuable information, there is also a wealth of redundant postings and it is hard sometimes to unearth the info that you're looking for. Yes? No? Crazy talk?

I'm on the side of the market fluctuates geographically and as time goes by, trends develop, etc. However I think the idea of a "WikiCycles" is a great idea. I think all of us have used sites like sheldonbrown.org and others for reference and to self educate. Why not have a site that was a wiki style site for bicycles? This model exists for cars, video game guides, and I'm sure many other things.

With a "WikiCycles" users with forum like moderators can publish short articles on bicycles, components or repair techniques that they have the most experience with. For a relative new comer to the bicycle world I think this would be very useful. I have quite a bit of knowledge on Asian Roadsters, but next to know knowledge about vintage road bikes. This could be the next step from the forums, where albeit there is a wealth of valuable information, there is also a wealth of redundant postings and it is hard sometimes to unearth the info that you're looking for. Yes? No? Crazy talk?

Not crazy talk at all. I agree 100%. If only I had the coding skills to do it all myself. Unfortunately I'm fresh out of school and in between jobs so I don't really have any way of funding such a project. It's actually not that expensive to have a website hosted, the programming part is hard to do well if there aren't pre-made engines and plugin to do it. Which there very well may be.

EDIT: Well... I found out that the domain is only 9.95/yr so I went ahead and bought it. The best part is that the engine that wikipedia.org was built around is free so hopefully WikiCycles.org will be up and running shortly

I can understand the concern that something like this may drive up prices, that being said the prices are already outrageous in my market to the point where I think the bubble will burst soon as the market is becoming saturated with junk, and based on CL posts, people are no longer happy about it. I think the market would regulate itself whether or not a documents such as this exists or not.

I am with Diego when it comes to the interesting statistics that a document similar to this could produce. I think that it would be great to see the kind of data creation that could be recorded. I am a little skeptical as to how many people would participate in this kind of activity. I feel as though avid flippers and collector's may be a little scared off by its implications, as jbonamici has suggested, and that the average consumer of used vintage bicycles may not be all that interested in participating. That being said, the google analytics data I have seen shows that there is a demand for a "Vintage Bicycle Price Guide". The real question is whether or not a price guide means I giant spreadsheet with all sorts of names and prices, or if it means simply common ways to determine the approximate value of a bicycle.

The problem becomes that if I look up a mint condition, clean and tuned 1986 Trek 400 and see that in LA it's worth $500, then sitting in Smallville, IA with a 1986 Trek 400, that looks like it's gone 5 rounds with a dumpster and half the parts are broken and the frame is bent, then I want at least $400.... The problem is that when people see their old bike with the thought of selling it, they don't see the wreck it has become, but rather the brand new pristine bike they had when it was just off the showroom floor. A better assessment is to take the price when new, divide that in half, then subtract whatever it would cost to restore to usable condition. So if the bike originally sold for $500, divide that in half, giving $250, if it takes $100 worth of parts to make it ridable, then take that off, so it's really worth about $150. Of course this doesn't include bicycles that are extremely rare or have some special value, like it was ridden by a famous rider or in a big race, also doesn't account for market demand, which can drive up the prices in some markets. Now it also doesn't account for bikes which have been severely modified from when they were new, reducing the value. None of these points would be accounted for anyway.

I think a better guide is something similar to bikepedia that would include suggested list prices for bicycles when they were new, and what components were on them when new, what the original paint colours were when new, frame and fork material, and preferably include pictures, all of which can be tough to find for older models, particularly before 1980.

Now the real question is, why not contact the forks who run bikepedia and see if they would be interested in expanding their database to include whatever older data you can find. I know that information is sketchy and gets more sporadic as you go back in time, but, if they are interested, it's better to have it all in one place.

The problem becomes that if I look up a mint condition, clean and tuned 1986 Trek 400 and see that in LA it's worth $500, then sitting in Smallville, IA with a 1986 Trek 400, that looks like it's gone 5 rounds with a dumpster and half the parts are broken and the frame is bent, then I want at least $400.... The problem is that when people see their old bike with the thought of selling it, they don't see the wreck it has become, but rather the brand new pristine bike they had when it was just off the showroom floor. A better assessment is to take the price when new, divide that in half, then subtract whatever it would cost to restore to usable condition. So if the bike originally sold for $500, divide that in half, giving $250, if it takes $100 worth of parts to make it ridable, then take that off, so it's really worth about $150. Of course this doesn't include bicycles that are extremely rare or have some special value, like it was ridden by a famous rider or in a big race, also doesn't account for market demand, which can drive up the prices in some markets. Now it also doesn't account for bikes which have been severely modified from when they were new, reducing the value. None of these points would be accounted for anyway.

I think a better guide is something similar to bikepedia that would include suggested list prices for bicycles when they were new, and what components were on them when new, what the original paint colours were when new, frame and fork material, and preferably include pictures, all of which can be tough to find for older models, particularly before 1980.

Now the real question is, why not contact the forks who run bikepedia and see if they would be interested in expanding their database to include whatever older data you can find. I know that information is sketchy and gets more sporadic as you go back in time, but, if they are interested, it's better to have it all in one place.

Very good points Wogsterca. I think that there are probably just too many variables to take into account. Although I think the information would still be interesting, I'm not sure how relevant it would be as there would be such variation and so many anomalies among perceptions of value that I am not convinced that it would ever work out how it was intended.

I have actually taken on Buikema's suggestion and looked into creating more of a wiki site that is purely user generated content on just about anything cycling related. Just about anything can be posted on the site and it is all user submitted content. Though bikedpedia has a similar sounds title to wikipedia, I don't find it to be a pure wiki as it is very structured in the format that the "articles", if you want to call them that, take. The information is also fairly limited by the list formatting. As Buikema suggested, I think it would be very interesting to create a large database of knowledge on everything cycling related, from how to press a headset, to information on the most recent stage winner of the Tour.

I am not sure how many people would be interested in contributing, but the beauty of the format is things generally don't get repeated, they are simply modified and added too. Anyways, I have actually already come accross some free software, set up the domain, and will be slowly piecing together each page in terms of the information, help etc. The amazing thing is that even these pages can be modified by the user. If anyone is interested, take a look at www.wikicycles.org (http://www.wikicycles.org)

Cheers!

I have actually taken on Buikema's suggestion and looked into creating more of a wiki site that is purely user generated content on just about anything cycling related. Just about anything can be posted on the site and it is all user submitted content. Though bikedpedia has a similar sounds title to wikipedia, I don't find it to be a pure wiki as it is very structured in the format that the "articles", if you want to call them that, take. The information is also fairly limited by the list formatting. As Buikema suggested, I think it would be very interesting to create a large database of knowledge on everything cycling related, from how to press a headset, to information on the most recent stage winner of the Tour.

I am not sure how many people would be interested in contributing, but the beauty of the format is things generally don't get repeated, they are simply modified and added too. Anyways, I have actually already come accross some free software, set up the domain, and will be slowly piecing together each page in terms of the information, help etc. The amazing thing is that even these pages can be modified by the user. If anyone is interested, take a look at www.wikicycles.org (http://www.wikicycles.org)

Cheers!

Nice one. That's awesome, way to take the initiative. I checked out bikepedia and it seems useful for some stuff, but sort of vendor oriented, and there is almost nothing on vintage/unusual bikes. I think its time for a new WikiCycles thread, see if we can drum up some support and get people editing.

Too many variables. Factor in all the models, the changes by year, condition, location... Frankly, I have many things I'd rather do than attempt to create something so huge that's perishable.

Nice one. That's awesome, way to take the initiative. I checked out bikepedia and it seems useful for some stuff, but sort of vendor oriented, and there is almost nothing on vintage/unusual bikes. I think its time for a new WikiCycles thread, see if we can drum up some support and get people editing.

I would start the thread, I'm just not sure if that would go against the forum rules and possibly seem like advertising. I already have one warning for foul language. The irony is that the word was starred (which I now know is not allowed) yet you are allowed to use this :wtf: which means a similar thing to what I said.