Professional Cycling For the Fans - What Astana is doing?

At the start of the TdF someone asked who the strongest team going into the race was. If the question was "for support of a GC contender" then the answer would be Saxo Bank. So how would a weaker team like Astana beat a stronger team like Saxo Bank?

Astana could plan to keep their GC guy (Contador) close in time to Saxo Banks' GC guy (Schleck) until a particular point in the later portion of the race (lets say the Pyrenees). While they keep their GC guy close in time they could wear down the stronger team, so when the Pyrenees stages come, the stronger team can no longer give the support (to their GC guy) they could have in the earlier stages of the race. This would lead to a more favorable outcome in a duel between Contador and Schleck when the race gets to the Pyrenees.

The question then becomes, how do you wear down Saxo Bank? One way Astana could wear down the strong Saxo Bank team would be to have an Astana rider (Vino) make several break away rides causing the whole Saxo Bank team to come to the front of the pack and pick up the pace to bring him back, over time this would have a wearing down effect, especially on long, hot stages.

Its just one mans theory but it sure looks like what they are doing.

This whole strong team thing is way over played. The strongest team doesn't win the TdF. The strongest rider does. Astana doesn't have to be the strongest team. That just have to be good enough to support Contador when needed. The race is between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck. Their teams support them. The winner will be determined by the best climber and TT. At that point, the riders will be isolated. It will come down to the strongest rider. Neither team has to wear down the other. They just have to make sure their GC guy is in a position to be close enough to attack. Once the race gets into the upper echelons of a HC climb, it become man against man. The same goes for the ITT (INDIVIDUAL time trial). Teams can't help then. Barring mishap (mechanical, crash, injury, etc.), it will be the strongest rider that wins.

I don't think Saxo Bank is chasing Vino, they're trying to wear down the other GC contenders by pushing the pace on the flatter sections. That's what I'd do, I'm a big guy, if I knew a painful climb was coming. :)

Well, the business part of me recognizes that having the strongest team is about marketing and bragging rights. HTC/Columbia talks about their team strength every chance they get. As it is now, they just have Cav.

I don't think Saxo Bank is chasing Vino, they're trying to wear down the other GC contenders by pushing the pace on the flatter sections. That's what I'd do, I'm a big guy, if I knew a painful climb was coming. :)

Well, the business part of me recognizes that having the strongest team is about marketing and bragging rights. HTC/Columbia talks about their team strength every chance they get. As it is now, they just have Cav.

That's simply not correct. They've had more wins than any other team the past couple of seasons. They had something like 70 wins last season. Cav accounted for less than a third of them (something like 25-26). So its not just Cav. They have a very strong team geared towards sprinting. They have numerous strong sprinters. The TdF is one race event in a long season. You can't base it only on the TdF. But it appears you bike racing knowledge doesn't extend beyond that.

That's simply not correct. They've had more wins than any other team the past couple of seasons. They had something like 70 wins last season. Cav accounted for less than a third of them (something like 25-26). So its not just Cav. They have a very strong team geared towards sprinting. They have numerous strong sprinters. The TdF is one race event in a long season. You can't base it only on the TdF. But it appears you bike racing knowledge doesn't extend beyond that.

This is true. Tony Martin has a good chance of winning the ITT. He came in second on Mt. Ventoux last year, so he can climb without wearing himself out, and HTC doesn't have a GC contender so he can just chill in the back.

I think Contador will be gassed after battling it out with Schleck in the Pyrenees... he'll be fast, but perhaps not enough to win the stage. Dunno about Cancellara... he probably won't have fresh legs going into the ITT either if he leads Schleck into the base of the climbs like he did last year.

This is true. Tony Martin has a good chance of winning the ITT. He came in second on Mt. Ventoux last year, so he can climb without wearing himself out, and HTC doesn't have a GC contender so he can just chill in the back.

I think Contador will be gassed after battling it out with Schleck in the Pyrenees... he'll be fast, but perhaps not enough to win the stage. Dunno about Cancellara... he probably won't have fresh legs going into the ITT either if he leads Schleck into the base of the climbs like he did last year.

They're a very strong team, despite not having Hincapie in the lead-out train, and losing Boassen-Hagen to Sky.