Commuting - Lightning drill?

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Giant Defiance
09-16-10, 05:04 PM
So what's your lightning drill? Today I was about 5 minutes from home when a storm really started. I just went a bit faster and nearly pissed my pants. Also, I was a bike salmon for a bit; I did not want to have to wait to turn left on a busy road.

Is there a proper way to go about preventing death by lightning? I know in the wild you're supposed to sit on your pack, but I wasn't carrying a big bag.

Riding on an aluminum bike isn't reassuring. If only I had a carbon fiber bike... *sigh*


myrridin
09-16-10, 05:10 PM
The odds I've seen from getting struck by lighting range from about 1:250000 to 1:750000. Not very high. Unless I were riding on an exposed mountain top or on a wide open plain, I would simply seek cover as reasonably quickly as I could while still riding safely.

ItsJustMe
09-16-10, 05:30 PM
If you think riding carbon fiber or even a plastic framed bike will change the odds of getting hit even fractionally, you're insanely optimistic.

I just don't worry about it. I look at it this way; my house has a TV antenna on top of it, 30 feet in the air, grounded steel pipe sticking straight up. It's been standing here for 17 years now through every thunderstorm. I've seen lightning strike within 30 feet of it, and yet the house still hasn't been hit, nor have any of the trees.

What are the odds that I'll get hit, a badly conducting body with a round top 6 feet off the ground, moving too fast for an ion trail to form anyway? Yes, it happens, but the odds are far less than me getting hit by a car on any given day.

If I were living in Florida where I understand at times the lighting strikes a thousand times an hour in a single area, I might worry more about it.


skijor
09-16-10, 06:08 PM
Agreed, the bike makes no difference. If you were riding a horse you'd be at the same risk. Make a reasonable b-line for home and stop worrying.

BarracksSi
09-16-10, 06:16 PM
If you're worried about getting hit by lightning, you probably think you have a good chance of winning the lottery, too.

AlmostTrick
09-16-10, 08:12 PM
Yes, your odds of being struck by lightening while cycling are pretty low. If you'd like to lower them even more just ask a taller partner to join you on storm rides. :p

aharris
09-16-10, 08:29 PM
hmm, while statistics are comforting in a general sense, lightning is not random. You are in an area where it is likely (a front) and you are exposed. Hundreds manage to get hit each year, you can reduce your odds. I don't know of any bike specific ideas, but not being the tallest (only) object in the middle of a road layout seems like a good idea. Not taking shelter under a tallest object is also a good idea. I've been in similar place and decided to beat it for home, which wasn't far. On my rural/suburban commute, If I was more than a few minutes from home, I've thought of holding on the side of the road far enough from a tree that if it fell it would come near me....(thinking it would be the tallest thing and not me, while staying far enough from it not to be zapped if it was hit)

electrik
09-16-10, 09:49 PM
The odds I've seen from getting struck by lighting range from about 1:250000 to 1:750000. Not very high. Unless I were riding on an exposed mountain top or on a wide open plain, I would simply seek cover as reasonably quickly as I could while still riding safely.

Those aren't the actual odds for the OP because they're probably averaged over every american.

If you have the odds from the particular circumstance of a cyclist in a lightning storm, then give those instead.


If you're worried about getting hit by lightning, you probably think you have a good chance of winning the lottery, too.

You can't win the lotto if you don't play.

The odds of you "winning" the lightning lotto shoot way up if you're outside and shoot way down if you're like the majority of people sampled in those stats - safe and indoors.

electrik
09-16-10, 09:51 PM
If things get too hairy i'll crouch into a ball in a ditch, but generally I check the radar if i'm going a fair distance something is amiss and just wait 30 minutes... the weather typically changes around here in that time-frame.

Seattle Forrest
09-16-10, 10:04 PM
So what's your lightning drill?

Mine is to wish I had my camera ( and a tripod and cable release ). We don't get lightening much here, and when we do, it's typically only visible over the horizon and reflected in the clouds. It's not anything I need to worry about.

Do you have a kick-stand? If not, you might want to think about installing one. If things get worrisome, you can stand your bike up ( as long as it isn't too windy ) and lay yourself down several feet away. It'll double as a lightening rod.

shouldberiding
09-16-10, 11:44 PM
If you're worried about getting hit by lightning, you probably think you have a good chance of winning the lottery, too.

I like this one.

azesty
09-17-10, 12:48 AM
I go more slowly if it is a good lightning storm, and we get some great ones here. The reason I go more slowly is so I wont crash while I am looking around :)

I love lightning.

z

whitey818
09-17-10, 04:51 AM
The only times I have been overly concerned about lightning is once stuck in a small boat in the middle of a very large lake, never worried about it on the bike, and I live in Florida. I would maybe worry more if I was out in the open somewhere but that is rarely the case here.

jharte
09-17-10, 05:33 AM
The odds I've seen from getting struck by lighting range from about 1:250000 to 1:750000. Not very high. Unless I were riding on an exposed mountain top or on a wide open plain, I would simply seek cover as reasonably quickly as I could while still riding safely.

Funny you should mention that. It was not on a commute to work but on a tour this year. I got caught in a thunder/lightning storm in Alabama. To hide from the pounding rain I leaned up against a rock/bluff. As the ditch I was standing in filled up with water, lightning struck the ground across the street. Yep, I felt that one AND the next one! I didn't get hit directly but I felt an indirect jolt. My hands and feet were numb for 2 months.

The shock was a surprise. The claps of thunder so close actually bothered me more.

I guess I didn't learn much. I still run/bike in the rain. :D

Jerry H

BILLB58
09-17-10, 06:00 AM
I came to an agreement with Lightning many years ago......I ignore it, and it ignores me. So far, we have both kept our respective parts of the bargain.

RobertFrapples
09-17-10, 06:35 AM
. . .my house has a TV antenna on top of it, 30 feet in the air, grounded steel pipe sticking straight up. It's been standing here for 17 years now through every thunderstorm. I've seen lightning strike within 30 feet of it, and yet the house still hasn't been hit. . .

How do you know it has not been hit? Your TV antenna and steel pipe are grounded. They are designed to pass the lightning right into the earth. The point is that you would not notice.

djtilton1969
09-17-10, 07:11 AM
I worry about lightning....its on the list of things I worry about while rideing
heres a quick scan of the list
1 car doors
2 inattentive drivers
3 speeders

further down

52 Alien abduction resulting in anal probeing
53 lightening strikes

there it is....knew it was on there somewhere

:)

Kotts
09-17-10, 07:15 AM
On a tour, I had lighning strike close enough that I felt the "tingle" just before the big, bright "my God, they dropped the big one" flash.

I wasn't hurt, except for some serious ringing in my ears, but I dang near "dropped the big one" myself...

Kotts
09-17-10, 07:16 AM
How do you know it has not been hit? Your TV antenna and steel pipe are grounded. They are designed to pass the lightning right into the earth. The point is that you would not notice.

The TV antenna isn't so well grounded that they wouldn't notice. Antenna strike = fried TV

mconlonx
09-17-10, 07:37 AM
I was in the first third of my 19 mi commute home the other night when it started raining. Big lightning show. I kept riding. Lots of taller structures around me. Thought about getting off the road to get out of the rain in case it was just a passing shower, but ended up trudging on.

If I get hit my lightning on a bike, it is the godz will. If I survive a lightning hit on a bike, I will indeed buy lottery tickets...

ItsJustMe
09-17-10, 07:47 AM
How do you know it has not been hit? Your TV antenna and steel pipe are grounded. They are designed to pass the lightning right into the earth. The point is that you would not notice.

I've been to houses where the antenna was hit. It melted the insulation down on the coax and EXPLODED the splitter and anything else attached.

In an electrical circuit where there's a low resistance path to ground and a high resistance one, yes, MOST of the electricity will pass through the low resistance path (the ground wire). However, a fraction of the energy will pass through the high resistance path, and a fraction of a lightning strike is still more than enough to cause physical damage to electronics.

We had a lighting strike on our property a few years ago; the strike hit the ground very close to the buried wire for the dog's invisible fence and also within a couple of feet of where the cable TV coax goes through, about 100 feet from the house (we use cable only for internet, it's not hooked to the TVs). In that case, not only was there a good path to ground, it was HITTING the ground. Even so, just the side leakage from that strike snuck into the coax, blew the splitter apart, fried the cable modem, went through that to fry the router, went through that and blew the ethernet ports on 3 machines. It also got into the buried invisible fence wire and destroyed the insulation along the entire 1500 foot line as the charge broke it down every few inches, and even with all that leakage into ground, enough energy made it into the transmitter box for the fence to actually physically blow components off the circuit board, melt the wire going to the power supply wall wart, blew the cover off the wall wart and shredded the wires in the transformer inside, and make it through the garage power lines and fry one of the two garage door openers.

That was just the side leakage from a strike. Somehow I think that if I had a direct hit on the TV antenna, I would have had at least a little damage to the TVs in the house. Or the rotor control box.

jeffpoulin
09-17-10, 10:11 AM
It's really rare to be struck by lightening, but then again, it's really rare to see someone riding a bike through a lightening storm.

That said, if the hair on your arms starts to stand up due to static electricity, it's time to get off the bike and lie on the ground. You don't need to sit on a backpack, just get as low as you can.

Fizzaly
09-17-10, 10:23 AM
http://sportsmedicine.about.com/od/enviromentalissues/a/lightning.htm

electrik
09-17-10, 11:26 AM
Funny you should mention that. It was not on a commute to work but on a tour this year. I got caught in a thunder/lightning storm in Alabama. To hide from the pounding rain I leaned up against a rock/bluff. As the ditch I was standing in filled up with water, lightning struck the ground across the street. Yep, I felt that one AND the next one! I didn't get hit directly but I felt an indirect jolt. My hands and feet were numb for 2 months.

The shock was a surprise. The claps of thunder so close actually bothered me more.

I guess I didn't learn much. I still run/bike in the rain. :D

Jerry H

Yup, i've been hit also.

These people quoting 1:1,000,000 haven't got a clue what they're talking about. Classic sampling error.

Lightning is very dangerous - respect it or pay the price.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgTpXoYTXQE

sggoodri
09-17-10, 11:28 AM
I stop in a store and wait out the nearby lightning if I'm more than a couple of miles from home and the the landscape of the road leaves me out in the open.

Otherwise, I just pedal like heck.

I installed an antenna on my house and grounded the pole to the main house ground in order to reduce the probability of damage to my home theater if a lightning strike hit nearby. However, a direct hit would still probably fry everything. A lightning strike near my mom's house traveled from the base of a tree to buried invisible fence wire, up to the house, over to the phone line, and destroyed the modem in her PC.

StanSeven
09-17-10, 11:33 AM
Agreed, the bike makes no difference. If you were riding a horse you'd be at the same risk. Make a reasonable b-line for home and stop worrying.

Only if its a short horse

myrridin
09-17-10, 12:05 PM
Those aren't the actual odds for the OP because they're probably averaged over every american.

If you have the odds from the particular circumstance of a cyclist in a lightning storm, then give those instead.


If you want to look up specific probability for cyclists, then be my guest. Frankly the general environment, such as the mountaintop or open plain I cited, are much more likely to increase the probability of being struck. Frankly the odds of getting hit while riding unsafely (which the op admitted to) in a heavy rain are much higher than a lightning strike... Hence the advice to seek safety as soon as possible while still riding safely...

myrridin
09-17-10, 12:10 PM
Yup, i've been hit also.

These people quoting 1:1,000,000 haven't got a clue what they're talking about. Classic sampling error.

Lightning is very dangerous - respect it or pay the price.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SgTpXoYTXQE

Its funny you talk about sampling error while agreeing with a gentleman who did exactly the wrong thing to shelter from lightning (against a rock/granite cliff in a puddle of water). He would have been better off to continue riding. And regardless of the actual probability of a lightning strike, it is clear that riding in an unsafe manner as described by the OP in poor visibility conditions is likely to be much more risky...

So again, seek shelter as soon as possible, but do so while continuing to ride safely...

electrik
09-17-10, 12:14 PM
If you want to look up specific probability for cyclists, then be my guest. Frankly the general environment, such as the mountaintop or open plain I cited, are much more likely to increase the probability of being struck. Frankly the odds of getting hit while riding unsafely (which the op admitted to) in a heavy rain are much higher than a lightning strike... Hence the advice to seek safety as soon as possible while still riding safely...

You don't know the odds of being hit while riding in a storm - yet you somehow compare those odds to the odds of being hit by a car? Ok...

My point is the odds are not 1:250,000 if you're out there flying a kite with metal wire... those type of odds really aren't relevant and are so general as to only serve as false comfort for people.

I'm sure parachutists tell themselves the same thing! only 1:1,000,000 die in parachuting accidents... so it's safe for me. This completely ignores the real situation that many people will never parachute, that dramatically increases the odds of the parachutist dying. It is the same with lightning strikes. Get what i'm saying?

electrik
09-17-10, 12:18 PM
Its funny you talk about sampling error while agreeing with a gentleman who did exactly the wrong thing to shelter from lightning (against a rock/granite cliff in a puddle of water). He would have been better off to continue riding. And regardless of the actual probability of a lightning strike, it is clear that riding in an unsafe manner as described by the OP in poor visibility conditions is likely to be much more risky...

So again, seek shelter as soon as possible, but do so while continuing to ride safely...

Of course, lets not forget he was also outside during a storm to begin with. I don't disagree that one should seek shelter if lightning becomes more intense.

I'm not sure why you're laughing at the sampling error comment... maybe explain your idea some more. I'm not agreeing with his philosophy either, i am just agreeing to the fact that lightning is dangerous.

myrridin
09-17-10, 12:31 PM
Of course, lets not forget he was also outside during a storm to begin with. I don't disagree that one should seek shelter if lightning becomes more intense.

I'm not sure why you're laughing at the sampling error comment... maybe explain your idea some more. I'm not agreeing with his philosophy either, i am just agreeing to the fact that lightning is dangerous.

I am not really laughing at the sampling error comment per se. But lightning strikes are fairly uncommon, being hit by a car is not. I was mostly suggesting to the OP that his somewhat reckless riding to get out of the storm was more likely to result in injury then a chance lightning strike. And yes for the purposes of determining if being hit by a car or a lightning strike I think the original probability estimate range I provided is pretty reasonable.

So do you actually disagree with my suggestion that getting to shelter as soon as possible while still riding safely is what the OP should have done?

yokotas13
09-17-10, 12:44 PM
i ride carbon

electrik
09-17-10, 01:19 PM
i ride carbon

Better watch out your clothes don't rub the frame and build up a static charge!

pharasz
09-17-10, 01:30 PM
If I were living in Florida where I understand at times the lighting strikes a thousand times an hour in a single area, I might worry more about it.
And I live in Florida. When I see it I count the seconds between the flash and the boom. I do this while riding to get a sense of how far away it is. When I start counting less than 5 seconds I get really worried and I look for shelter. Gas Stations work great if they have an overhang you can get under for protection.

The worst part is when I'm crossing Tampa Bay on the Gandy bridge, which is 3.5 miles in open water. Half way across that bridge one day I was watching bolts strike the water and I was heading right for them. by the time I got to the end of the bridge the bolts were striking in front, back, and both sides of me. And it was still two more miles to the nearest shelter. I pedaled like a mad man for those two miles until I reached a gas station, where I pulled in under the overhang and waited it out.

electrik
09-17-10, 01:33 PM
And I live in Florida. When I see it I count the seconds between the flash and the boom. I do this while riding to get a sense of how far away it is. When I start counting less than 5 seconds I get really worried and I look for shelter. Gas Stations work great if they have an overhang you can get under for protection.

The worst part is when I'm crossing Tampa Bay on the Gandy bridge, which is 3.5 miles in open water. Half way across that bridge one day I was watching bolts strike the water and I was heading right for them. by the time I got to the end of the bridge the bolts were striking in front, back, and both sides of me. And it was still two more miles to the nearest shelter. I pedaled like a mad man for those two miles until I reached a gas station, where I pulled in under the overhang and waited it out.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCTpE0PX_mA

Fizzaly
09-17-10, 01:57 PM
I guess people dont get it, it doesnt matter frame material or tires the lightning is gonna be attracted to you the person, easiest path of resistance.

khutch
09-17-10, 02:08 PM
If only I had a carbon fiber bike... *sigh*

It wouldn't help. The lightning bolt is, what, a mile or more long? It hits your head, if your bike conducts no electricity it will travel through your body and out your feet to the ground. A few more inches of air travel at the end won't bother a mile long lightning bolt. Your aluminum bike is not connected to the ground, the lightning is going to have to jump an air gap at the end either way. By the time the current flows from your head to the bike frame it has passed through and stopped your heart. Sitting on a backpack isn't going to help either. Getting down low is no certain protection, I once saw a lightning bolt hit a low building right next to a 100 foot plus commercial radio tower built of nice conductive aluminum. You cannot predict what lightning will do out in the open. Aircraft traveling hundreds of miles per hour get hit by lightning, speed is no protection.

Part of the reason that lightning strikes are rare is that sensible people do not stay outdoors in lightning storms! Ignore that advice and you do increase your odds of being hit by quite a bit. I don't know by how much and your odds of being hit are still small. My lightning drill consists of not going out in lightning storms and getting indoors as soon as I can if one catches me unawares. Stop and get inside a public building if you can. Beat it for home, work, a friend's house if you can. If you are stuck way out in the country with no possible shelter then just ride. Your odds are good enough that if there is no real shelter available you might as well just continue on. A tree is no shelter and its height actually puts you at more risk, don't bother stopping under a tree.

If you can feel the tingling sensation from an impending strike you have little, if any, time to do anything. If you can I would get as low as possible and if you are off the bike try to stand/squat on one leg or with both feet very close together. If you are lucky the lightning will only strike nearby and when it does the enormous current from the bolt will flow radially outward from the strike point. If you are standing/squatting on two legs in that zone where the current is high some of it can flow up one leg, through your body, and down the other depending on how your feet are placed with respect to the current flow. Keeping your feet very close together or supporting yourself on only one can prevent that and save your life. Not that you are likely to accomplish any of this in the time you have....

Ken

jeffpoulin
09-17-10, 02:12 PM
I guess people dont get it, it doesnt matter frame material or tires the lightning is gonna be attracted to you the person, easiest path of resistance.

Exactly. Open air is a terrible conductor and lightening passes through thousands of feet of it. If you happen to be in the way, it won't matter what your frame is made of or what kind of tires you have. Lightening doesn't have to pass through your bike to get to the ground. It'll pass through the air around you just fine.

Giant Defiance
09-17-10, 05:45 PM
In retrospect, I was wearing a helmet so a direct hit to the head would have been NBD.

Stop arguing and go on with your lives. And wear a helmet, it just might save you from death by lightning. It certainly saved me yesterday.

jharte
09-17-10, 08:17 PM
Myrridin wrote: Its funny you talk about sampling error while agreeing with a gentleman who did exactly the wrong thing to shelter from lightning (against a rock/granite cliff in a puddle of water). He would have been better off to continue riding.

Yeah that was me down South on tour. Surprisingly caught off guard in a storm. Had the traffic not been so heavy (in blinding rain) I would have gotten back on the road. As it was, I had to sit on a small rock against the bluff and hold my feet up out of the water for 2 hours...until the storm passed. I'm just glad I lived through this one so I can learn what NOT to do on my next tour.

Myrridin, believe me, I can't tell you how many times I asked myself '...you freaking idiot! How'd you manage to get caught in this?"

All kidding aside, I do plan my rides much more carefully.

Jerry H

myrridin
09-18-10, 08:15 AM
Myrridin wrote: Its funny you talk about sampling error while agreeing with a gentleman who did exactly the wrong thing to shelter from lightning (against a rock/granite cliff in a puddle of water). He would have been better off to continue riding.

Yeah that was me down South on tour. Surprisingly caught off guard in a storm. Had the traffic not been so heavy (in blinding rain) I would have gotten back on the road. As it was, I had to sit on a small rock against the bluff and hold my feet up out of the water for 2 hours...until the storm passed. I'm just glad I lived through this one so I can learn what NOT to do on my next tour.

Myrridin, believe me, I can't tell you how many times I asked myself '...you freaking idiot! How'd you manage to get caught in this?"

All kidding aside, I do plan my rides much more carefully.

Jerry H

Reread the posts, I also said the gentleman who sheltered against the cliff face did the wrong thing and would have been better off continuing to ride.

Seek shelter (and know what is appropriate shelter) yes, but do so while continuing to ride safely... It doesn't do any good to avoid getting hit by lightning if you get hit by a car or truck instead...

jharte: Truth be told I probably would have done the same thing in your situation... Sometime, s%^&t happens.

jr59
09-18-10, 08:50 AM
Hey a new excuse for buying a carbon bike!

I don't want to get hit by lighting!


I have almost the same chance of both. :(

Commodus
09-18-10, 09:38 AM
Uh...I just keep riding and enjoy the show.

Honestly, getting hit by lightning is not something I've ever thought about.

Bachman
09-19-10, 09:14 AM
According to this commercial, you are probably safe from lightning... if you are a woman. If you are a man, well, better stay indoors. Although getting hit by lightning looks kind of fun.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSZmZQaPjmg

mcflyfisher
09-19-10, 10:12 AM
As a fly fisherman I am very aware of the danger of lightning. I think graphite is something like 4 times more conductive than steel. That is way distributor caps have a carbon element in the center of them. When I am waving my 10' fly rod around in a lightning storm it is much like waving around a 40' steel rod. This is just a bad idea. I try to avoid it, but sometimes the fishing is too good. I can tell you that graphite will warm a bit just before a lightning strike, and that when that happens a fisherman can just about fill his own waders. I got lucky. The lightning struck a tree on the bank about 40' from me. I had my rod parallel with with water at the time. I was changing flies and had the rod in my hand. I noticed it was sort of humming and warm, thought "that is not good" and then the whole world lit up, and I was deaf for a few minutes. I wobbled back to the truck and went home. I am more careful now, but honestly I wouldn't worry too much in my bike even if it was carbon.

imi
09-19-10, 10:25 AM
Chuck Norris hits lightning

electrik
09-19-10, 10:39 AM
As a fly fisherman I am very aware of the danger of lightning. I think graphite is something like 4 times more conductive than steel. That is way distributor caps have a carbon element in the center of them. When I am waving my 10' fly rod around in a lightning storm it is much like waving around a 40' steel rod. This is just a bad idea. I try to avoid it, but sometimes the fishing is too good. I can tell you that graphite will warm a bit just before a lightning strike, and that when that happens a fisherman can just about fill his own waders. I got lucky. The lightning struck a tree on the bank about 40' from me. I had my rod parallel with with water at the time. I was changing flies and had the rod in my hand. I noticed it was sort of humming and warm, thought "that is not good" and then the whole world lit up, and I was deaf for a few minutes. I wobbled back to the truck and went home. I am more careful now, but honestly I wouldn't worry too much in my bike even if it was carbon.

Incredible... you are so lucky to have even survived. As for the Gatorade commercial, that may even be true and it's funny. I'd bet everybody in this thread who has been struck was a man, and that goes back to what i was saying about the odds - you can't win the lotto if you don't play and many women aren't buying a ticket so to speak.

degnaw
09-19-10, 12:20 PM
People always throw statistics around but if you're golfing, fishing, bicycling, etc during a lightning storm, the chance of being struck is probably closer to 1 in 100 than the aforementioned 1:1,000,000.

myrridin
09-19-10, 03:02 PM
People always throw statistics around but if you're golfing, fishing, bicycling, etc during a lightning storm, the chance of being struck is probably closer to 1 in 100 than the aforementioned 1:1,000,000.

Your odds are way too high. If they were even close we would have hundreds and probably thousands of deaths by lightning every year. Without specific data on the size of the risk pool and number of cyclists deaths it is impossible to determine the actual probability; however, the following numbers do indicate that the 1:250,000 to 1:750,000 range that I quoted from another source is likely pretty close.

Here are some actual facts:

1. Lightning kills an average of 58 people per year source:http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/overview.htm
2. About 700 cyclists die annually, of which about 80% are a result of a collision with a car. source: http://bicycleuniverse.info/transpo/almanac-safety.html
3. I can find no statistics concerning cyclists struck by lightning; however a google search turned up 170,000 hits. On the first page of results there are only five deaths listed, three in 2009 and two in 2006. This would indicate that the number of cyclists killed per year may well be less than 1 or 2 out of the 58 average. Many of the links points to stories of cyclists struck who survived... And one of the deaths cited earlier was one cyclist in a larger group of cyclists.

Clearly, you are at a greater danger from cars than lightning. Yes, you should seek shelter, but do so in a safe riding manner...

For those interested here is some information on what is the safe course to take in different circumstances by the national weather service.

http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/outdoors.htm

electrik
09-19-10, 03:59 PM
Your odds are way too high. If they were even close we would have hundreds and probably thousands of deaths by lightning every year. Without specific data on the size of the risk pool and number of cyclists deaths it is impossible to determine the actual probability; however, the following numbers do indicate that the 1:250,000 to 1:750,000 range that I quoted from another source is likely pretty close.

Here are some actual facts:

1. Lightning kills an average of 58 people per year source:http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/overview.htm
2. About 700 cyclists die annually, of which about 80% are a result of a collision with a car. source: http://bicycleuniverse.info/transpo/almanac-safety.html
3. I can find no statistics concerning cyclists struck by lightning; however a google search turned up 170,000 hits. On the first page of results there are only five deaths listed, three in 2009 and two in 2006. This would indicate that the number of cyclists killed per year may well be less than 1 or 2 out of the 58 average. Many of the links points to stories of cyclists struck who survived... And one of the deaths cited earlier was one cyclist in a larger group of cyclists.

Clearly, you are at a greater danger from cars than lightning. Yes, you should seek shelter, but do so in a safe riding manner...

For those interested here is some information on what is the safe course to take in different circumstances by the national weather service.

http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/outdoors.htm

The only thing that is clear is that you are not in possession of relevant statistics regarding lightning strikes. 1 in 100 may be BANG on for cyclists out in the middle of a lightning storm. Stop guessing and stop comparing lightning to cars - the circumstances and event of being hit by lightning or a car are two VERY different things.

Respect lightning, don't travel on a bicycle and try to stay indoors during storms.