Foo - Steve Jobs - The End?

Well just announced that SJ is taking another leave of absence for health reasons. Does not sound like good news for SJ and timed on a market close day. Tomorrow will be an interesting day in the market, not sure what I am going to do with my AAPL, still a strong business but it will sell off tomorrow.

Good luck SJ

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41118102

He's taken a leave of absence before and the company did not crash and burn. I'm not selling my stock yet.

BUY! BUY! BUY!

People say a lot about Steve and his direction to produce pretty products, but if he leaves and the company eventually migrates more towards mainstream products they will increase their market share.

My example is the Ford Thunderbird. In 1957 it was a unique 2-seat vehicle, with very little competition. The next year they made it a 4-door, more similar to other models on the market, and doubled their sales from the previous year.

I think Steve's end is nearer rather than farther. Not sure what it'll mean for Apple.

I think he's hanging out with L. Ron Hubbard and Lyndon Larouche on a tropical island somewhere, laughing at all the rubes.

Not sure what it'll mean for Apple.

Apple stock might dip at first, but the company is very busy, and with the potential sales through Verizon, and new products to be introduced for ATT, their revenue should go up with stock prices to follow.

The stock will sell off $20-$25/share at the open. By mid morning to lunchtime it will start rebounding as every hedge fund and mutual fund manager in NY who is kicking themselves for not being long APPL start to pile in. By the close tomorrow the stock will be off $10-$15 share from the closing price Friday ($348). Then tomorrow night they announce their quarterly results (I anticipate the Mother of All Blowouts) and that won't hurt the stock. But you never know with quarterly calls, one hint of disappointment can be used as an excuse to take profits. But the selloff tomorrow will mitigate some of that.

I'm not in APPL for what happens tomorrow. I'm in the stock because I think 12-18 months hence it's a $425-$450 stock. And Jobs' health won't really impact that, the company's game plan is locked in for that time period now, as is their growth. The potential impact of Steve leaving Apple? That's longer term, they would miss his amazing vision. I am however very confident in T. Cook taking the reins and in the team at Apple. I have a substantial position in APPL and I am unconcerned. It's a company that's approaching $100 billion in annual sales. They are better off in many ways not having their market value hanging on one mortal human being who is one plane crash, illness or mishap away from eternity (as are we all). And nobody understands that better than Mr. Jobs.

For all we know he's using this as a way to bow out when the company can most easily absorb the news; the day before they announce their best quarter ever. Not for nothing, but after his last medical leave, people and Wall Street got used to him being gone, and I think the Jobs Factor was largely neutralized with respect to the stock value.

That's business. I admire Jobs as a visionary and business person, and I really hope he gets his health back soon. The world would sure be a sadder place without him.

Perhaps even now, Apple scientists are working feverishly on iLiver.

I say they give the reins to Pcad.

Jobs is/was the Leader. Apple won't be the same without him. Though, I wouldn't mind seeing clones.

Though, I wouldn't mind seeing clones.

You don't get it.

*ahem* Apple's stock ticker is AAPL *cough*

And so it is. But the trading symbol for Pcad remains FRED.

I agree the company fundamentals are strong and they have a good two years of growth with existing products. However, without Jobs vision it will be hard to see where the company goes beyond that horizon. I have a 10% trailing stop on AAPL and if it triggers I will let it sell and watch to get back in if it goes lower. I am sure their report will kick butt, but in the end if he is really sick again I expect all of the trading to be very opportunistic and it becomes more of a short term play than a long term hold for me

I agree the company fundamentals are strong and they have a good two years of growth with existing products. However, without Jobs vision it will be hard to see where the company goes beyond that horizon.

Two years in investing is like a millennium. In trading it's like eternity.

Two years in investing is like a millennium. In trading it's like eternity.

I started investing/trading around 1995, NASDAQ was at $750 AAPL was $9 and I was not buying tech at that time. Lived in San Jose during the bubble and watch things go to $5000 and back down to $1100 (AAPL $38), still never bought Apple :(. Now NASDAQ is $2600 and AAPL is $340, I got in at $200.

So long term investing pays off but people want to win the lottery these days and if you gamble you lose more than you win. There is investing and there is trading, I do both, AAPL is a trade for me.

AAPL is an investment for me. It's going to $400+ by year end. I think once AAPL gets up into the $450-$500 range, it starts getting much harder for it to go higher, but I do think that's where it's going over the next 18 months.

What will happen is this: AAPL gets up into that $450-$600 range, then maybe it stalls for a year or two. The pile of cash at Apple starts to approach or exceed $100 billion. The shareholders get restless. AAPL morphs from a growth stock to a relatively go nowhere stock like Intel or Microsoft, and eventually Apple has to issue a dividend and maybe split the stock. The one factor preventing a stock split or a dividend is Jobs, he is dead set against it. So in some ways, his departure is good news for shareholders.

Don't get me wrong, I love what Jobs has done for Apple and technology, but as a shareholder, the fate of my investments held hostage to the fate of one individual has gotten rather old. That's never good for a company or its stock.

What will happen is this: AAPL gets up into that $450-$600 range, then maybe it stalls for a year or two. The pile of cash at Apple starts to approach or exceed $100 billion. The shareholders get restless. AAPL morphs from a growth stock to a relatively go nowhere stock like Intel or Microsoft, and eventually Apple has to issue a dividend and maybe split the stock. The one factor preventing a stock split or a dividend is Jobs, he is dead set against it. So in some ways, his departure is good news for shareholders.

Don't get me wrong, I love what Jobs has done for Apple and technology, but as a shareholder, the fate of my investments held hostage to the fate of one individual has gotten rather old. That's never good for a company or its stock.

I hope that scenario plays out, it will open 5% down so my sell trigger will hold, earnings will be good and that should hold things. I really expect that SJ now has to provide some transistion plan to street, he was able to get away without it in the past but the board would be negligent if they don't do something at this point. If the transition is Cook then everyone will relax as he is a known entity and the product pipeline and sales are strong. If they go another direction it will lead to uncertaintly and more stock churn. I plan to keep my exit strategy in place which will ensure that I get enough profit out that I will not be kicking myself.

I feel bad for him. He has a fatal cancer. Question is not "if" but "when"

I hope that scenario plays out, it will open 5% down so my sell trigger will hold.

Oh stop. How long have you been doing this? My scenario is a long term macro view, you can't make silly pronouncements like 'it will open 5% down' from that. When were you hoping for that? February 2012? Which week? Before or after the End of Days?

I hope they announce a significant stock buyback at the quarterly call tonight. Much smarter deployment of funds than to have it sitting in a friggin giant virtual 1% mattress.

Two bits of reality from such disparate sources as medical science and economics:

1. Pancreatic cancer kills you.

2. Bubbles burst.





http://threadbombing.com/data/media/70/they_live_deal_w_It.gif

Didn't apples stock flounder when Job's left the first time?

Oh stop. How long have you been doing this? My scenario is a long term macro view, you can't make silly pronouncements like 'it will open 5% down' from that. When were you hoping for that? February 2012? Which week? Before or after the End of Days?

Not pronostication they were down 5% in pre-market trading. Currently they rebounded to about 2.5% down which is magnificant considering the SJ news, means Cook has a lot of confidence behind him and everyone is wary of the getting caught on a blow out earnings report. If the earnings are not a blow out you might see more sell off tomorrow but I'm comfortable my position will hold. I plan to be in AAPL until it hits the 10% stop, may be tomorrow, may be in 5 years. Living through a few bubbles has lead me to make sure I have a solid exit and keep it in place.

Not pronostication they were down 5% in pre-market trading. Currently they rebounded to about 2.5% down which is magnificant considering the SJ news, means Cook has a lot of confidence behind him and everyone is wary of the getting caught on a blow out earnings report. If the earnings are not a blow out you might see more sell off tomorrow but I'm comfortable my position will hold. I plan to be in AAPL until it hits the 10% stop, may be tomorrow, may be in 5 years. Living through a few bubbles has lead me to make sure I have a solid exit and keep it in place.

You were saying you hoped my scenario would result in a 5% sell off. My scenario plays out by 2012, not sooner.

This is such ridiculous white noise. As I predicted, the stock opened up around $330, now it's already back over $340. Yawn. Considering the gravity of the Jobs medical leave, that's a very minor hiccup.

You were saying you hoped my scenario would result in a 5% sell off. My scenario plays out by 2012, not sooner.

Actually I was not saying that but maybe the post was not clear. I was saying I hope your scenario of a price rise to $450 was correct and that today they would open 5% down. A 5% swing in AAPL is almost a weekly swing these days with all of the trading, not a big deal. I was fearing we might see a +20% drop today.

I was fearing we might see a +20% drop today.

Then you don't follow AAPL very closely. The last time Jobs announced a medical leave the stock sold off 10%, but only briefly. Now it's mostly priced into the stock, I anticipated a 5-6% drop followed by an immediate bounce back. I was correct. We'll have to see what happens after the quarterly call in the next hour. The whisper numbers are $26 billion in revenues, $6/share in earnings. If they blow out the whisper numbers, I think the stock jumps to $355-$360+, if it 'disappoints' (i.e., they don't beat the whisper numbers), maybe it sells off 2-3%.

And so it is. But the trading symbol for Pcad remains FFRED.

Fidelity Mutual funded it for you

They crushed it. Again. $26.7 Billion for the revenue number.

It's too bad that the real/full story can't come out because of the pathetic hysterics of the stock market. Hope the guy's going to be okay.


+1

'the pathetic hysterics of the stock market'?

Whatever you say.

A $300 billion company with fortunes that rise and fall with the health of one individual is largely the creation of that corporation in my view, not on the part of the investors whose life savings may partly depend on that stock price. While Jobs is critical to Apple, and while he does appear to have a deep bench with talented people behind him, there would be far less anxiety over his health if they were more transparent about the succession plans they obviously have in place, but are not very open about. I think Mr. Jobs has a perfect right to privacy with respect to personal issues like health, but the investors have a reasonable expectation of knowing what happens to their dough if Steve gets hits by the bus. It's ironic, because the public would be less fearful about Jobs' well being if they had a clearer idea of what would happen if he couldn't carry on.

That being said I really hope he gets his health back and comes back to lead the Cult of Personality until he's friggin 75 years old.

Then you don't follow AAPL very closely. The last time Jobs announced a medical leave the stock sold off 10%, but only briefly. Now it's mostly priced into the stock, I anticipated a 5-6% drop followed by an immediate bounce back. I was correct. We'll have to see what happens after the quarterly call in the next hour. The whisper numbers are $26 billion in revenues, $6/share in earnings. If they blow out the whisper numbers, I think the stock jumps to $355-$360+, if it 'disappoints' (i.e., they don't beat the whisper numbers), maybe it sells off 2-3%.

Numbers were good and the stock will recoup losses from yesterday. Long term I still wonder what Apple will be without Jobs? Will they just continue to run out the existingproduct line? What will the first couple of post Jobs products look like? He is so closely tied to the process and the image of the company can it be more than say Sony if he is gone, not that this is a bad position. I think everyone remembers what happen when he was ousted the first time, but then Cook/=Sculley

Jobs has done more to reshape the way people interact with devices, programs, media and one another than anybody else in history.

If he died today, that would be his legacy, unchallenged for many years to come.

If he lives another year, or 10 years, he will continue to innovate in ways that will change the dynamic of the marketplace each and every time.

Numbers were good and the stock will recoup losses from yesterday. Long term I still wonder what Apple will be without Jobs? Will they just continue to run out the existingproduct line? What will the first couple of post Jobs products look like? He is so closely tied to the process and the image of the company can it be more than say Sony if he is gone, not that this is a bad position. I think everyone remembers what happen when he was ousted the first time, but then Cook/=Sculley

If I were you, I'd focus on a company or stocks you have a glimmer of comprehension about. Not that there's a ton of downside in AAPL at this point If you're an investor. Traders? They are always on their own. I invest, I do not trade.

If I were you, I'd focus on a company or stocks you have a glimmer of comprehension about. Not that there's a ton of downside in AAPL at this point If you're an investor. Traders? They are always on their own. I invest, I do not trade.

I have been working in software development and marketing since about 1987, worked in Cupertino on Bubb road from 1990-1994 and spent the next 10 years on first street in San Jose. I have a number of friends who still work for Apple, I feel comfortable with my view of the what has made them sucessful and their challenges going forward. I like some of theri products and I think Jobs is a user interface genius but I'm no fanboy that just says yeah to everything they do.

I'd say a man who has done what Jobs has done is more of a business genius than an interface genius. 'Interface genius' greatly oversimplifies and understates the accomplishments of an innovator who has reshaped the tech landscape the way Jobs has in the past 30 years. You know iPods, Phones, Pads, Tunes, etc. etc. The other multi bazillion company he created out of nothing was Pixar (he bought the company for $10 million and sold it less than ten years later for over $6 billion). Apple is poised to become the largest tech company in the world in the next few years, and one of the top 5 companies in the world (by revenues and profits) within the next decade.

I would be more concerned if anything happened to Jonathan Ive.. Steve has been sick for a few years and I'm sure this is more of a need for rest than imminent death.. I was fortunate to buy apple stock years ago when it was in the 20's and fortunately held onto it. I'm sure we will see Jobs back at Macworld doing the keynote in 2012.

One of the keys of many of the tech companies is that they are sitting on huge amounts of $$$ to help them thought the tough spots. Apple has about $50 billion in cash reserves.

Apple's cash is getting to be an impediment. They need to deploy it somehow. It's time for a dividend. At this rate, a year from now their cash position will be over $80 billion (it's about $60 billion now). That is unsustainable. You can't sit on that much cash forever.

Apple's cash is getting to be an impediment. They need to deploy it somehow. It's time for a dividend. At this rate, a year from now their cash position will be over $80 billion (it's about $60 billion now). That is unsustainable. You can't sit on that much cash forever.

Not too many companies can boast 20% of their Market Cap being in the form of cash. But you're right, they are not a bank. They need to do something with it. They need to continuously innovate to ensure their future. Yes a dividend would be nice, but I'd rather see them invest in talent and innovative small companies.

Maybe apple is saving up to buy the newly minted kabletown-nbcuni.

I'd like to see that.

Maybe the Black-Eyed Peas will make a song about it.

Yes a dividend would be nice, but I'd rather see them invest in talent and innovative small companies.

That wouldn't suck up $80 billion. Dividend. Or a substantial stock buy back.

Or of course, they could buy Disney. For cash.

Unless you're paying attention, you might miss the fact that Apple has gone from being a large Fortune 100 company to one of the largest companies on the planet in the past 5 years. At the rate they are going, they will be right up there with the top 5-10 firms in the world within a few years. It's rather mind blowing. I've never seen a huge company grow like that.

That wouldn't suck up $80 billion. Dividend. Or a substantial stock buy back.

Or of course, they could buy Disney. For cash.

Unless you're paying attention, you might miss the fact that Apple has gone from being a large Fortune 100 company to one of the largest companies on the planet in the past 5 years. At the rate they are going, they will be right up there with the top 5-10 firms in the world within a few years. It's rather mind blowing. I've never seen a huge company grow like that.

Of course I'm paying attention ... I own a part of the company. I, like many here, have a vested interest in their success. I just wish I liked their Ipad a bit more. It's currently collecting dust on my desk.

I just wish I liked their Ipad a bit more. It's currently collecting dust on my desk.

I just sold mine - it retained 80% of its value after 8 months, which was rather amazing - and replaced the iPad with a MacBook Air, which is much more my speed. I greatly prefer the traditional laptop interface. The MB Air kind of splits the difference between a MacBook and an Ipad, very cool.

But given the rate of iPad sales the the inroads these devices are making into the consumer space and, apparently enterprise, I'd say tablets are here to stay. What's more encouraging (or disheartening, depending on your point of view) is the Utter Fail on the part of the competition. Their offerings really look kind of lame so far - and most of them aren't even available yet. Apple is doing the same thing with the iPad that they accomplished with the iPod, and that has helped them retain 80% market share in MP3 players over the last decade. The tablet space is a much richer market. Apple currently controls over 90%, and while that won't continue, if they can even hang on to 50%+ over the next ten years the sales revenue that will result is rather staggering to contemplate.

I don't know that they look all that lame. I'm the mobility tech for a rather large company and get to play with a lot of toys. I've been sent pre-production Dell android tablets that are pretty slick, and I'm wanting to get the Samsung Galaxy Tab to test. One powerful feature that tab has is front and rear facing cameras + video chat over the data connection (not just wireless). Can you do that Apple? Hello? :D

Also, Android phones grew last year to having 25% of the market. Might not seem like much but it is more than Apple and when you consider the Android platform only had around 3% the year before you really begin to see the explosive potential of it. Apple has enjoyed being ahead of the curve the past couple years in terms of technology and UI, but they've just been caught and passed.

Also, Android phones grew last year to having 25% of the market. Might not seem like much but it is more than Apple and when you consider the Android platform only had around 3% the year before you really begin to see the explosive potential of it. Apple has enjoyed being ahead of the curve the past couple years in terms of technology and UI, but they've just been caught and passed.

Haha caught and passed? Apple has ONE iPhone model in ONE carrier. Android has many phone models manufactured by many companies in many carriers. Given that Android still hasn't caught up to Apple's market share and surpassed it says something about the awesomeness of the iPhone.

Also I know of many disgruntled Android users and I don't know a single disgruntled iPhone user. I also know more iPhone users than android users.

Haha caught and passed? Apple has ONE iPhone model in ONE carrier. Android has many phone models manufactured by many companies in many carriers. Given that Android still hasn't caught up to Apple's market share and surpassed it says something about the awesomeness of the iPhone.

Also I know of many disgruntled Android users and I don't know a single disgruntled iPhone user. I also know more iPhone users than android users.

Actually Android has caught and passed Apple market share. They did it in the last quarter of last year. Apple's market share slipped a little, although by all other standards they had a stellar year. And the fact that Android is spread over more than one model and one carrier speaks to my point rather than disproving it. Apple is facing serious competitive threat from Android.

Also, you appear to be an 'Apple Fan Boy'. :) I don't mean that in a deragatory way - I've just noticed that there are people who are 'fans' and emotionally attached to the Apple devices. I'm in charge of mobile technology deployment for my company. I have an unbiased view. I have to. I'm not promoting Android. I am stating that it is a very capable product and can do things that the iOs can't or won't do. Right now I'm evaluating video chat on Samsung Galaxy Tabs. The reason is that it has a front and rear facing camera and can do video chat over the cellular data connection. The iPad (and also the iPhone) cannot do that as of this time. Things like that is what I was referring to by being 'caught and passed'.