Professional Cycling For the Fans - 2011 Giro predictions

I think Nibali will take the GC

Don't see how Alberto can not be the clear favorite...

5 grand tours in a row coming in, experience under pressure, and a desire to silence critics. Plus this years stages are tailor made for him, he could conceivable win this thing by 10 minutes or more.

Obviously, anything can happen such as a crash but I am going with Alberto as my guess for GC

Yeah, it has to be Alberto unless the CAS decides to ruin the Giro or he is otherwise plagued by off-the-bike issues.

Contador
Nibali
Scarponi

I'm not exactly going out on a limb here and those may be boring picks, but this year's route is just plain brutal and I think Contador knows he won't get a chance to do the TDF this year. I'd love to see the Menchov/Sastre team work well together, but it just seems like way too much climbing for Menchov.

Should be an exciting race. I think the Giro was the best race of the year last year. This year's route has tons of potential.

I also think Contador will win.

Have they announced the rosters yet?

Yes take a look at steephill, it is weird I don't see super starts but contador and contador's team is not like a super team anymore. Probably the TDF will look better but in general the teams doesn't look like last year for example, a lot of people getting ready for the tour only ?

I'll cheer up for nibali

Please tell me that Popo is going for the GC...

There are a number of the big teams with no real GC people, like the sprinters teams with their #1 bibs.

I would have loved to see the liquigas tandem battling the Geox tandem vs Contador. To bad Basso is only doing the tour.

They know they need to get to the tour 100% fresh, contador will get the going down in the curve in my opinion.

What the hell. Joaquim Rodríguez.

I hope to see the Geox boys stir things up in their ripe old age (30-somethings ;)).

DiLuca!

Just kidding - I'd love Nibali but I'd fear Contador. I wish Evans was riding it.

Anybody know why the Schlecks aren't riding? Seems odd.

Anybody know why the Schlecks aren't riding? Seems odd.

It's not really odd.....

Most riders who have the TDF as a serious objective, skip the Giro. It's practically impossible to do well in both in modern cycling (especially considering this years routes)

Basso will repeat! (oh wait...). OK, Andy Schleck! (wait a minute...)

On second thought, Joaquim Rodriguez. Actually, I think he'll come in second to Phillipe Gilbert ;)

did I read somewhere that the Schlecks are doing the Tour of California? I thought that was cool.

It's not really odd.....

Most riders who have the TDF as a serious objective, skip the Giro. It's practically impossible to do well in both in modern cycling (especially considering this years routes)

Out of curiosity, what's the main reason for that? Does it take more than five weeks to replenish the energy stores in the body lost in three weeks of racing? I'm sure there are many finer points I don't understand.

Contador - dont really see anyone continuously dropping him on long, extended climbs AND putting time on him in a TT.

Nibali comes second - he's the real deal, IMO: he, not Andy, will be the one to eventually beat Contador in a GT.

Menchov third.

V.

Don't see how Alberto can not be the clear favorite...

5 grand tours in a row coming in, experience under pressure, and a desire to silence critics. Plus this years stages are tailor made for him, he could conceivable win this thing by 10 minutes or more.

Obviously, anything can happen such as a crash but I am going with Alberto as my guess for GC

+1

I don't think AC is in top form at the moment so I'm going for Nibali.

I like to stick my neck out so I'll predict Contador won't finish the Giro this year.

You have to ride well everyday- that's why they have the race. It a big field, going fast - on a lot of crazy roads.

There will be plenty of great riders trying to make a good impression. We'll see.

I don't think AC is in top form at the moment so I'm going for Nibali.

I like to stick my neck out so I'll predict Contador won't finish the Giro this year.

I wonder how the sponsors would feel about that...

Out of curiosity, what's the main reason for that? Does it take more than five weeks to replenish the energy stores in the body lost in three weeks of racing? I'm sure there are many finer points I don't understand.

You're on the right track. These days to win almost any major race a guy has to be on top form and time his peak perfectly. There are plenty of guys who won't get to ride the TDF who will focus 100% on the Giro. If anybody wants to beat those guys he'll either have to be that much better than them or he'll have to be on top form himself. I think Contador is the only guy who could win without being 100%, and I'm sure many would argue that even he couldn't do it.

Same goes for the TDF- lots of guys want it and build their whole season around it. The Giro and the TDF are too close together for a guy to recover and build back up to his peak in time (plenty of time to recover, but not enough to build back up). It doesn't help that the Giro is usually insanely difficult with tons of climbing. So if a guy wants to do both races, chances are he won't be in top form for both of them. It's hard to do well when not in top form.

Nobody was able to be top 10 in both races last year. Sastre and Vino both did top 20, but neither was ever a threat to win either race.

You're on the right track. These days to win almost any major race a guy has to be on top form and time his peak perfectly. There are plenty of guys who won't get to ride the TDF who will focus 100% on the Giro. If anybody wants to beat those guys he'll either have to be that much better than them or he'll have to be on top form himself. I think Contador is the only guy who could win without being 100%, and I'm sure many would argue that even he couldn't do it.

Same goes for the TDF- lots of guys want it and build their whole season around it. The Giro and the TDF are too close together for a guy to recover and build back up to his peak in time (plenty of time to recover, but not enough to build back up). It doesn't help that the Giro is usually insanely difficult with tons of climbing. So if a guy wants to do both races, chances are he won't be in top form for both of them. It's hard to do well when not in top form.

Nobody was able to be top 10 in both races last year. Sastre and Vino both did top 20, but neither was ever a threat to win either race.

Thanks for this detailed explanation. But all of this leads me to want to know why AC is pushing to win the Giro. Does he think that he can win both the Giro and the TDF? Or, is it possible that he is anticipating a possible (or even probable) ban to come down before the TDF?

Contador announced last year that he would try for the triple (Giro, TDF & Vuelta in one season). Seems like it was Bjarne Riis (his team's manager) who had this idea, or at least pushed it and made it public. So in a way he's already committed to at least trying all three. My speculation: if he was victorious (or sniffed podium) in all three while clean, this would be so insanely impressive that everyone would forget about the TMI (tainted meat incident).

Kudos to Cav for trying to speak Italian in the post race interview with the Italian guys after Stage 12 today. Pretty sure he murdered the language, but it's nice to see some of the riders at least make the attempt. I'd think it's appreciated by the hosts.