Fifty Plus (50+) - 20 years? 30 years? You? Bicycling in general? Technology? Infrastructure?

Some of you are mere kids at 50, while the Baby Boomers are inching along over and past 65. We pre-WWII folks are into our 70's.

So, what's the future look like in 10, 20, 30, maybe 40 years?

For you?

For bicycling in general?

Bicycling technology?

Infrastructure?

Other?

Hopefully, staying away from a political discussion, please!!

How about it?

Any predictions?

If I were good at predicting the future I'm thinking that I would have acquired a lot more money.

For me? Dead

For bicycling in general? Increase 3-wheel, electric powered, recumbents; wider bike lanes with limited auto traffic. Banishing of semi-tractor trailer trucks (more use of trains). More commuter trains (i.e., LRT). Lockable places where you can store your bike while shopping. More rental bikes as they use in France, etc.

Bicycling technology? We are at the peak as far as efficiency is concerned. But more electric powered bikes and possibly solar powered units.

If I were good at predicting the future I'm thinking that I would have acquired a lot more money.

We accept bad predictions.

All humans will be chipped, whatever bikes will be made of they will still have to be propelled by legs/arms. We will have a toilet flushing tax, tax by the mile for motor vehicles, people will grow their own spare body parts. Every one will be armed by law(except California). Weed will be legal. We will still have 49 cent tacos. Cubs will not win a World Series. Potholes will still be unfilled. Sugar, salt, fat and caffine,beer will still be the main food items. Letterman will still be on.
TV will be 4D. Pirates of the Caribbeans X.

I hope to have alot of good years to bike and run, but i always think i would like to help out at events somehow if not able to do the event.Pass out water, sign people in etc.I guess to give back , i appreciate the volunteers who help made events special.

I can look back at the Last 20 years since I started cycling and not much difference- Bikes may be better but all that means is that I can do steeper hills and longer distances.

So I expect in 20 years to be riding my "New" Pinarrelo (It will takes me 20 years to save up for it) up Everest from Base camp. By that time they would have got a road to the top that is no greater than 10% slope. May be hard but think of the downhill.

I agree with Cadillac that we are pretty far up the curve on bicycle technology. I hope we will see a large expansion of bike lanes and trails. I expect we will see some pretty nice advances in eBikes and possibly in folders. As for me - it depends on a toss of the health dice. If I stay healthy I expect to be riding for 20+ years (currently 62).

The world price of gas is going to go up sharply over the decades.

At the same time, the value of the dollar is going to decline against foreign
currencies, making imports like oil significantly more expensive seperate from
price increases resulting from global demand.

At some point between 5 and 10 bucks a gallon, the country will start to slide.
The big personal vehicles will vanish, suburbs will empty as people move into the cities.

Construction in cities and on transportation and energy infrastructure will boom to handle the changes.

I'm almost starting to buy into Kurzweil's predictions of a technological 'singularity', which would make life past that point radically different and impossible to predict:

Kurzweil (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil) writes that, due to paradigm shifts (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradigm_shift), a trend of exponential growth extends Moore's law (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law) from integrated circuits (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_circuits) to earlier transistors (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor), vacuum tubes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vacuum_tube), relays (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relay), and electromechanical (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromechanics) computers. He predicts that the exponential growth will continue, and that in a few decades the computing power of all computers will exceed that of human brains, with superhuman artificial intelligence (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) appearing around the same time.

I truly love living through this period of great technologogical change, and a real downside of mortality is the things I will miss.

So, what's the future look like in 10, 20, 30, maybe 40 years?

For you? I'm 66 and hope I'll still be riding in 10 years, maybe even in 20 years. :beer:

For bicycling in general? I hate to think about the changes. Things are changing too fast now. :o

Bicycling technology? Same as above.

Infrastructure? Hopefully better in some places but around here I don't see much changing or improving.

Any predictions? I WILL NOT win the lottery!!

For you? Retired

For bicycling in general? Marginal increase in bike share in my city.

Bicycling technology? Don't care. Bike tech peaked between 1985-90.

Infrastructure? More on-street lanes on main streets and marked bike routes through residential areas. Our city has a bike plan and lo and behold they seem to be implementing it.

Other? I think alternative energy sources will come to market. The car will exist much as it does today (2-11 passenger vehicles), but the motors will be different, either running on electricity, or pork rinds, or seaweed or something.

Hopefully, the cycling populace will realise that lugged steel if the perfect material to make bike frames from.

Bicycling technology? We are at the peak as far as efficiency is concerned. But more electric powered bikes and possibly solar powered units.

The thing about technology is that we always think we're at the peak until somebody finds a way to push the envelope. CVT transmissions and better belt drives are coming. Technology improvements don't have to be only about improving mechanical efficiency either - the next big thing might be equalling the efficiency that we have now but lots cheaper to produce. How about an injection molded bike frame? Maybe a monocot velocar that minimizes air drag. That's all just stuff that's under development now. I wonder what's going on in somebody's garage that no one else has ever thought about before.

Way too many questions - I am so confused...

Way too many questions - I am so confused...

OOps!!

I forgot this was the 50+ forum. Sorry.

10 years? 65 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. 20 years? 75 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. 30 years? 85 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. 40 years? 95 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. Unless, of course, they fix social security without extending when you can collect. (Yeah sure)

I'm almost starting to buy into Kurzweil's predictions of a technological 'singularity', which would make life past that point radically different and impossible to predict

Ooh, I like that concept, an "historical event horizon". Most sci-fi writers probably detest it!

20 years? Some creature, as yet unknown by humans, will replace Denver as The Most Creative Thread Starter. In the meantime he will be remembered for posterity in the Guiness Book of Records. Assuming whatever replaces us can decipher english, that is.

I've been riding (non-stop) since age 4. That's 56 years! I started on a Schwinn something (remember the white and pink colors?)... graduated to all sorts of 10 speeds. I remember when I purchase my first real road bike, a Miyata (oooooohhh) 12 speed! Love the color (gold and brown). Rode it to death and sold it to a friend. I then bought a Specialize Expedition, the original Expedition, classic touring bike - 18 speed! I road it cross country 4 times. During the 80's I was really into cyclo-touring. I was a bit of a bohemian. Took a year off work and did the Centennial Trail.

Rode the Expedition (with down tubbe shifters) for alittle over 22 years. When I joined a bike club in 2002, I realized I needed to upgrade. I bought the Lemond Zurich (all steel before Trek ruined the bike) which has the current Shimano style shifters (9 speed). Took a while to get the hang of the new shifters and at first, I kept going back to the Expedition but eventually fell in love with my Lemond and rode it to death.

I am finally on what I hope is my last road bike... my Landshark, custom built steel, Shimano 10 speed with Sram XX 36 tooth cassette. Beautiful bike. Built to last I hope way into my 70's and hopefully my 80's.

Now talk about changes - I also ride mountain bikes. I started in 1985 with a Specialize Rockhopper (fully rigid steel), went through some hard tails and several full suspension bikes and am now riding a Santa Cruz Superlight upgraded to full XT components and Chris King wheels (the Landshark has CK wheels as well). Just bought a new shock and probably will have to get a new fork someday. I hope the bike last since I love it!

* * *

I have had a love affair with bikes most of my life. I hope with fuel prices, an emphasis on the environment etc, that cities and states start thinking more in terms of dedicated bike lanes and trails. Several of the cities around me have done just that. I can put together a 50 mile ride almost entirely on bike trails. What I think is sad is schools here no longer support bike programs and bike safety. Kids don't exercise... sad.

What I think is sad is schools here no longer support bike programs and bike safety. Kids don't exercise... sad.

www.BicycleColorado.org (http://www.BicycleColorado.org) has implemented a school safety program, "Safe Routes to School" - might be a model for you folks (or perhaps they are following a national model) - anyway, check it out under "programs"

Riding with stoker Malkin. All the rest is speculation and falderall....

At 71, I hope to be bicycling for at least 20 more years, in some fashion or other. We will see lighter, stronger and cheaper bikes, and bikes built for the general public to more easily commute and get around - such as protection from the elements, cold, etc. There will be more "bike sharing" opportunities, kiosks and the like. Bikes will be combined with electrical (or other) power assists.

Dedicated bike paths/trails/routes will be more common. On MUVRS (multi vehicle roads) cars will be equipped with devices to warn them of bicycles in their paths, and bicycles will have electronic devices interacting with cars for safety reasons. Cars will be guided much like airplanes - it will be very difficult to have collisions as sensors and computers will take over the cars driving functions when the possibility occurs.

My guesses on bike evolution:

-Entry level bikes will be equipped with belt drives, non-pneumatic flat free tires and IGH when the costs of these features comes down; ideal for many casual riders who just want to hop on a bike that requires minimal maintenance and handles benign neglect well.

-Electrical assist will continue to increase in popularity, especially as batteries grow smaller and more efficient and the average age of the population increases.

-The first person or company that can offer a cheap CVT for bicycles (like the NuVinci hub) will do well.

It hurts my head to try and think what the future holds. I'll just take it a day at a time, and take it as it comes.

My grandmother was born in 1888 and died at 103 in 1971. In 1888 the only prediction that could have been made about the next 20 to 30 years would have been about armed conflict between nations as well as more ordinary robbery and murder and continued oppression by despots. On the technology front, advances in science in engineering were employed by said despots, principally in furthering despotic goals. My great grandmother lived to 105. Although her time was one of much slower change, (at least it was slower from our current point of view) the age of steam had vast consequences for manufacturing and travel, none of which could be predicted. It was also true of her time that technological advances were employed to further the aims of despots.


Arthur C. Clarke one wrote that "humans are an inevitable development in the evolution of the computer". Whether or not such an outcome is possible, there is no evidence intelligence has survival value and in any case, most decisions are hormone based, at least the important ones.

Having cheered up everyone, I predict I'll ride my bike today. Maybe tomorrow also.

What will be and what I would like the future to be may be very, very different things.

I'd like to believe that there will be significantly more transportation taking place on bikes. Although trends in China and other areas tend to make we wonder if this is wishful thinking. I suspect the next real change we'll see is the trickle down of electronic shifting to more and more bikes. I don't doubt that carbon fiber will play an even greater role in the equipment we use. I think we'll see a growing diversity in the kinds of bikes available. Perhaps we'll see shifts in the very way communities organize themselves so things like kids riding bikes to school becomes a norm. Ah, hell, I don't really know. I just hope I'm still riding in 20 years.

I also think there will be a greater emphasis on electric-assisted bikes, particularly as the baby boomers age. I'm guessing, at 63, that I have more than a decade of vigorous bike rides ahead of me. After that, if I decline physically (but still have a sense of balance) and not mentally, I can see myself on an electric bike.

After that, if I decline physically (but still have a sense of balance) and not mentally, I can see myself on an electric bike.


Interesting perspecttive. AT almost 72, I see another ten years minimum on a regular bike.

I hope it's not more than 10 years before they come up with tires that don't flat.

I don't claim to be able to predict the future, of course, but from what I've seen there is more promise in electric shifting (Shimano has it, Campagnolo is working on it, SRAM - no comment) than electric assist bikes.

They've been tried before, and probably will be again, and some will sell, but to me they suffer from what I call "El Camino Syndrome" (ECS). That is, they're not a very good bicycle and not a very good motorcycle (like the El Camino was neither a very good car nor a very good truck).

All that said, there sure are a lot of El Caminos driving around SoCal long after the end of production, so I could be wrong!

Rick / OCRR

I'd like to believe that cycling infrastructure will continue to improve. Boston just got a "Silver" from the LAB for being bicycle friendly. Ten years ago, I would not have thought this to be possible. However,,,, As we all know so well, there are anti bike forces at work. The forces could be something as simple as the Joe six pack types in their pickups, who just don't like cyclists. Or it could be something much more complex, such as ultra rich towns, where cyclists are not too well liked either. The tony Boston 'burbs of Weston and Sudbury come to mind. Weston refused to permit the Mass Central rail-trail to be built in their town, pretty much dooming the entire project. Certain Sudbury residents are hell bent on keeping the Bruce Freeman rail trail from passing through their town as well.

Whether us 50-plus folks will live to see a nation wide network of bikeways, well, I'd like to be optimistic.

One big problem: I have noticed in the Boston area, that many cyclists tend to be of the older variety. Yes, there are bike riding college kids in Boston, but frequently the bikes are abandoned as soon as they graduate. Anyone else notice this?

As for technology, it will continue to advance, and I will continue to stick with steel frames, and refuse to use a cycling computer. That's the way I like it. :D





They've been tried before, and probably will be again, and some will sell, but to me they suffer from what I call "El Camino Syndrome" (ECS). That is, they're not a very good bicycle and not a very good motorcycle (like the El Camino was neither a very good car nor a very good truck).

All that said, there sure are a lot of El Caminos driving around SoCal long after the end of production, so I could be wrong!

Rick / OCRR

Heh, I remember when the El Camino was so popular, and seeing them all over the place. They are an extreme rarity in New England now. Heck, they probably all turned to rust years ago.

Riding back to Hollywood in a car with the director and two cameramen, from a film shoot in the mountains above Santa Barbara a month ago, they were discussing a movie some of them had worked on. It's about the future. The drift is in 2029, computers have taken over. Artificial Intelligence surpasses human, and the computers will run the world. The movie guys were scaring me with how seriously they all took it.

I'm thinking the US Government will no longer exist as we know it. Many rural small towns will become popular places to live again. Alternative fuels like hydrogen will be the main auto fuel. Liberal politicians will have the troops confiscate all the guns and bibles from the citizens who clung to them. But the Quran will be available for free.

Bicycles will be registered, titled and taxed. The US Postal Service will be only a faded memory in history books. We will still have troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.

I'm 51, and expect to be riding at least for 25 more years very actively. Who knows?

Like others, I have loved riding bicycles from the first, and feel the same passion today as when I was a teenager.

Technologically, I can't even imagine how the bike can advance further. Today's machines are incredible to me. I'm happy on a 1970s friction shifting gas pipe 10-speed, though. I'm delirious on a carbon STI-equipped racer with radially laced wheels...

Infrastructure might be the most interesting. I can't see the internal combustion engine going away in 30 years, so roads will be available and be maintained. I would hope for better bike advocacy, a recognition that healthier living means lower costs for everyone...ergo, bike lanes and paths, too.

Culturally, I'm thinking that Bob Denver music will make a fantastic resurgence due in large part to an episode during the 25th anniversary season of Glee. I hope that we all wear those cool shiny silver jump suits that we were SUPPOSED to be wearing in the future. Mine will have a propeller on the matching helmet!

Phil

I'm hoping bell bottoms will come back. I have a closet full of 'em. It is too bad bell bottoms are not a good idea for cycling.

DF, My vision of the future is a mix of Soylent Green and Mad Max.

Brad

Im 72 and hope to be riding at least another 15 years. Im saving my pennies for a tadpole trike.

Just to show you tho, back in the late 80s i bought my "last" bike. It was a loaded touring since it had a granny gear. I figured the granny could get me home if I petered out. But then I got a mountain bike so I could go more places. I had always thot bents looked logical and got one in 2005. I liked it so much that when I retired in 2008 I got the better faster one Im riding now. So right now Im up to my fourth "last" bike, and am looking to get the tadpole trike a year from now.

Hopefully some form of bent will become more popular since for the average person they make far more sense than DF bikes. For the average person that rides for exercise and enjoyment the pain and limitations of a DF bike is just plain dumb.

10 years, even 20 years, from now bicycles will still have the same basic shape. There will be new materials incorporated (one piece molded frames), and electronics (electric shifters, as mentioned above), and probably pneumatic flat-proof tires, all which will make bicyles cheaper, more reliable, and very low maintenance. Also hope IGHs get better and more accepted at all levels of bicycling.

More concern living here in earthquake-prone Los Angeles is the earthquakes, especially with the recent Japanese eathquake. A few coworkers and I pondered this and expect if a 9.0 earthquake happened here it would turn into a total 'wild-west 'shootin & lootin' ' environment; a total 'Mad Max', 'Boy & his Dog' scenario. Scary

So, what's the future look like in 10, 20, 30, maybe 40 years?

For you? 10 I'll only be 66. Should be retired. Still riding. 20 76, still riding, 30 86, well my Grandfather was still riding when he was 86. 40, well, I might still be alive. My grandmother just died recently at 99. Still riding at 96 - if I am alive and they are still making pie I don't see why not.

For bicycling in general? I don't see much change. If I look at the last 40 years since I've been riding as an adult I honestly have seen very little difference with the exception of the introduction of bicycling helmets. I suspect that here in Hawaii and the US of A in general we will see about the same small percent of adults riding bicyclists.

Bicycling technology? Minor changes in the drive train and perhaps frame materials but I don't see much happening that will really change the riding experience in substantive ways. If you want a power assisted experience that technology is more rapidly evolving and electric bicycles will become more available at a lower cost with increased range.

Infrastructure? Not much change that will really influence the bicycling experience. Where I live you might see a few more bike lanes and maybe they will actually build the bike path along the railroad tracks but they've been saying this for almost 20 years and it hasn't happened yet.