popsalicious

This ad has been up on the SF Bay craigslist the past week. I know 912s are pretty good Miyatas, and the Shimano 600 series is also pretty good. The bike was far away so I hadn't gone out to check it out yet, but I'm thinking of going this weekend (already contacted the seller and it's still available). Only thing I'm not sure about is why it hasn't sold yet. The seller's asking $485 for it without the basket, which in the Bay market seems reasonable for a bike this quality. Is there a down side to this bike I'm not aware of? Maybe people were tricked off this nice road bike by thinking it was just a cruiser with those handlebars? Anyway, let me know what you all think.

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/bik/2456595199.html

tugrul

That's probably a $275 bike, in it's original configuration.

Even with the Nitto Technomic and crazy market, it shouldn't break $400.

The Rivendell comment doesn't earn them any points either.

popsalicious

I asked him to switch the handlebars to the road ones, he says it's gonna be another stem, so I'll update when I find out what it is. There are a couple other 912's up on the bay craigslist, they're at $600. Prices are nuts out here. Of course, those also haven't been moved in the past couple of days, so they're up too high maybe. I got the guy down to $460, but I have a day or so to decide.

popsalicious

The new stem would be an SR Custom with Nitto Olympiad bars, and Shimano 600 Arabesque downtube shifters. I asked the guy if he'd be cool with $420, which I think is reasonable given that from what I can tell from a quick google search the Nitto is worth ~$50 and the SR Custom is ~$10.

popsalicious

Heard back, and with Aero brake levers (think they're the 600's), Shimano 600 Arabesque downtube shifters, Nitto Olympiad bars and an SR Custom stem, along with all the other stuff listed in the ad, he's asking $460.

tugrul

Here is the catalog from 1981 for reference:

912

Specifications

Won't let me embed, click the links.

tugrul

Also, a Nitto Technomic is around $40 or so, a vintage SR Custom is something pulled out of a stash, as with the rest of the parts when he puts the drop bars back.


There is a fine looking 1982 912 for $350 listed 4 days earlier (almost a week ago), still up so it probably hasn't sold yet.


That $600 Campy frankenbike is another story, I don't much about C Record, especially without big photos.

popsalicious

I hadn't looked at that other 912 before, it was too small for me so I just went over it. Wish I had when negotiating with the guy! Thanks for all the help, turgrul. I told the seller $420 with the new stem because I had already figured on the Shimano 600 parts when we'd said $460, and I don't think he's gonna be happy with that. He also said the labor figured into the price, which, no offense to the fantastic technicians who flip some pretty sweet-looking bikes with skills I am nowhere close to possessing, is bogus. The labor can't figure into the price of a used bike like this. The price is set for the condition of the bike whether it took two hours or two weeks to fix it up. I get the feeling this guy is trying to give me a run-around, so I think even if he goes for the $420 I'm going to pass.

rekmeyata

I hope you run and not walk to buy that bike!! I have two Miyata's, a 87 Team and a 88 712 and their excellent bikes, the best that Japan made in the day, and that one appears to be mint. The bars are not factory stock but you can find a set of Nitto drop bars fairly cheap. Screw the basket. It appears to be an 81, in 81 they came with SR Sakae CDT alloy bars, I would try to find new ones unused on E-bay if you want it to be in original condition, otherwise Nitto was also used by Miyata in other years models and those are still being made today. I have never seen a 912 in that condition on e-bay go for less then $1,000, heck the cheaper newer alumitechs on E-bay now are fetching $650 on a buy it now price. A weird looking lug set on a 712 went for $485, a Team frame and fork sold for $800. So I think the price you can get the 912 for is a steal.

3373jones

are you the seller?
in my experinece miyata 912s doing even get close to $1000. miyata 1000s don't even sell for that high.
e.g., miyata 912. $250 final sale + $70 shipping
https://cgi.ebay.com/Miyata-912-lugge...item4aabf447f6

i'm not saying the bike the OP asked about isn't worth it, i just have never see one clear $1000 - that's all.

rekmeyata

No I'm not the seller, I would be the keeper. That Miyata you showed I saw earlier and it was only in fair condition. The ones I talked about were ones I saw on sale on either E-bay or Craigslist.

Here's a Team with a $1,100 buy it now price: https://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...#ht_782wt_1118

Here's a Al-tech with a $650 buy it now: https://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...#ht_499wt_1137

Here's a 721 with a buy it now of $485: https://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...#ht_712wt_1118

A nos Team frame and fork ONLY for a buy now of $$799.99 https://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...ht_7053wt_1118

Going by those prices of some lower end ones and some higher end ones the 912 should go for around $1,000 in near mint condition.

3373jones

Those Team bikes are on a different (higher) level. the others are a bit wishful in my opinion... they aren't actually completed sales...

popsalicious

I mentioned to the seller that I'd done more research and based on the market $350 seemed like more of a reasonable price, and he wrote back saying he "thought I was someone who would value the bike as much as he did," but he guessed he was wrong. Forget the price, I just really don't like the seller's attitude. He can't back up the price with a reasonable argument, he just accuses me of not knowing it's value. Sale terminated.

Epicus07

I paid $225 for a full 600 near mint 1985 912 with Triple butted tubing. I don't think a high ten fork is worth $450

*edit* I agree with your decision 100%. That seller's reaction is bogus.

tugrul

These aren't completed auctions, so they are largely meaningless.

A Team is also not comparable to a 912, especially an Campy Ergo equipped one.

NIB items carry a bonus not applicable to a used bike, regardless of condition. These have also been selling very slowly.

Again, prices are not sales.

wrk101

List a bunch of auctions with no bids, and list different models. WTF? 912 for $1000? Dreamland.

popsalicious

I got a reply back from the seller which I didn't expect, he said he didn't mean to be snide just meant that bike prices were subjective. He wanted to let me know that he'd taken my feedback seriously, so he reposted the ad with it $80 cheaper. I still wouldn't go for it for over $350, but I appreciate that he's being more realistic with his flipping. Glad there was a happy, albeit unfruitful, ending.

tugrul

I could see somebody going "OMG IT'S ORANGE" and dropping $500... you were not that person

rekmeyata

Of course their wishful thinking, their on E-Bay! But they do sell eventually for those prices, maybe after many re-postings but they will sell. I saw a guy sell a Bianchi with full camp record in mint condition for $12,000...he re-posted it so many times I lost track. Crap they sell Schwinn Varsity's for $100 to $150, and one is right now has a bid for $389! I wouldn't pay to have one shipped if the dang thing was free!!! https://cgi.ebay.com/Vintage-Schwinn-...#ht_499wt_1137

So you all think the Miyata's are worth less then that Varsity?

popsalicious

On the whole if you had to pick a Miyata bike at random, from the entire line-up of Miyata models from the past, it would probably be worth more than a Varsity to most people. However, in that auction the bidders aren't choosing between a Varsity and a Miyata so you can't really make that comparison the way you're trying to make it. If they were given the option of the two bikes and asked to choose one for a certain price, then you could start to make that comparison, but that's not at all what's going on in an auction. The bidders, who are a single individual set of bidders, not all bidders on a whole, decide that this one bike, not all Schwinns on a whole, is worth a certain amount of money, and eventually it sells for the highest amount that one person out of that set of bidders is willing to pay, which all of his other fellow bidders decide is a ludicrous amount of money. So when you make these claims that a Miyata is worth $1000, or that a Schwinn is worth $389, simply because you've seen a single instance of this happening, you're making a logical fallacy. You're taking a single instance and exploding it into a pattern. And if you're basing the pattern on auction prices, the single instance you're turning into a pattern is admittedly a ludicrous one and not representative of the market value because that's how auctions work. In fact, you acknowledged the fallacy you're making when you said that the Schwinn isn't worth what's being bid on it. But in the next sentence you went right back to it and affirmed that it is worth that much and that because it is worth that much a Miyata should sell for higher. So it can be said that that Bianchi with full camp was worth $12,000 to that one person who bought it, but it can't be said that that's the actual market value of the bike. The market value of anything, which we've been discussing in this forum, is based on many transactions by many different people. By looking at those transactions as a whole, you can piece together a pattern and say that one bike is worth $275, another $500. You cannot make a pattern from a single piece of information, especially not from information which is necessarily contradictory to the pattern you're trying to make.

From looking at the market value of a bike, a seller can also tell whether or not they're likely to sell a bike based on what they're offering. Rekmeyata, you're making the same fallacy as above when you say that bikes will sell if listed at above market value. They might sell. It's probabilistic, it's not definite. And the higher they're priced above market value, the less probable it is that they will sell. You've seen a couple of bikes go for above market value and you're instantly making the assertion that all bikes will go for above market value, but to make that assertion you completely disregard all the bikes that don't sell for above market value that either never get sold or adjust their prices so they do get sold. Anyone who is in the market to sell bikes will not list their bikes above market value because they know that it is less likely that they will sell those bikes than if they were listed at market value (and sure there's some wiggle-room in there, and those wiggles build into fluctuations in the market, and that's where things really get interesting but that doesn't matter right now because that's not what the argument is about). Someone who is in the market to sell a Bianchi bike at $12,000 dollars is not in the bike market, he's in the $12,000 for a Bianchi market. That one person lucked out to find someone else who was in his market. It was extremely improbable. Anyone who wants to participate in the bike market that way won't be seeing much food on their plate.

So all I'm trying to say is, you're not backing up any of your claims logically. Actually, you're backing up your claims illogically.

rekmeyata

I disagree. The market of any product, new or old, is based on what the market will bear. In used car sales they take a sampling's of a similar car in the area (yes, where you live dictates prices) and get an average, if they can't find a sampling they take models above and below that which is being offered and mark the price somewhere in between. The Kelly Blue Book on cars is just a guideline, a starting point, the sampling's they find establish the price more so then the Kelly, the Kelly helps more with condition, options and mileage adds or subtracts, thus once the baseline price is established the add or subtract for condition, options and mileage supplied by Kelly and alter the final price. All I did was take a sampling of what was being offered on E-bay, including models above and below the Miyata 912, and according to those sampling's and round about figure came up, and that figure I came up with is darn close to what I've seen those bikes in excellent condition go for several times in the past. Granted if the bike is in fair condition and needs work then $150 is probably about right, but the posters pic of his 912 appears (note I said appears) to be in excellent condition and if he tracked down any original parts missing and put those on the sale value definitely would hover around the price I came up with. O

Also, you and I realize that E-bay in a lot of cases sells items for more then their worth. I had a friend in California who made is living buying stuff at Costco, never opening the stuff, and selling it on e-bay for more then he bought it for plus he made a profit in shipping!! And if he couldn't sell if for a profit he simply returned it to Costco. People on E-bay get into a bidding frenzy, like sharks to blood, and can't seem to stop, and this drives prices of bidded items into the world of ridiculousness. Sometimes a person gets lucky and manages to steal something at a lower price then it could have sold for but it isn't common.

But like I said the Varsity I showed is an example of extreme over bidding on that bike, but it happens all the time, I wouldn't pay $20 for a Varisty I don't care if it looked like it came off the showroom floor new!! But there are people out there trying to buy memories from their younger years and this drives junk like a Varsity upward. Around here on Craigslist Varsity's in fair condition are offered for $100. Here's a low end Fuji on our Craigslist right now that is just crazy overpriced: https://fortwayne.craigslist.org/bik/2463733743.html In case it gets sold and you can't see it, its a 27" Fuji Allegro Veralite with an asking price of $300, it probably won't sell for that much but I bet he gets $250 which is another bike personally I wouldn't buy for $20!

So no I claims are logical, and if you follow E-bay long enough you'll find I'm right. I've been trying to buy an vintage Italian made bike like Colnago, or Ciocc, etc and can't find one for less then a grand and even at a grand their only in fair condition. I think a bike made by anyone in just fair condition isn't worth it unless only a very few were ever made, but Colnago's were massed produced. I guess I'm odd for thinking that way about a vintage Italian job. I have several classic cars, and I got all those cars at prices I knew were lower then normal, otherwise those too I would have felt were too high to pay.

wrk101

Agree with part, disagree with the rest. Completed auctions are the only ones that matter on ebay for pricing history. There is always someone out there asking $1000 for a UO8 or similar.

Ebay is the land of tremendous variation. Sometimes bikes go high, really high, ridiculously high. It just takes two committed bidders. Like the Schwinn Supersport that sold a couple of years ago, with a bent fork no less, for over $1000. Does that mean I will get $1000 for mine? Nope.

I have had friends capitalize on trends via ebay. During the height of the cigar craze, a friend bought a nice wood humidor at Sams Club for $50, kept the receipt (in case it did not sell, he was going to take it back), and put it on ebay. It sold for $150, so he went back and bought five more. They all sold anywhere from $130 to $175, so he went back and bought a pallet load (all they had). I think the worst he did on any single sale was $110......

popsalicious

I think we can all agree that eBay prices are usually crazy (or at least have a tendency to be crazy), and so they can't be used to model what a local craigslist market price should be. No worries arguing about semantics.

zmensing

I think that's the same seller who tried to sell me a repainted Miyata 1200 (when I was looking for a Team) without the wheels for way too much (if I recall, nearly $1000). The bike market here in the Bay can get inflated for sure. Lots of people, lots that want bikes, and lots of good bikes around. Plenty of people who know what they're worth too, so you get stuck dealing with lots of flippers. There was recently a beautiful 1992 914 that was going for $300. I was trying to check it out, but I was out of town and I think it's gone now. Sad I missed it, but I guess I should be patient for my Koga-Miyata frame that's in the mail right now....