Professional Cycling For the Fans - Will GC contenders declare themselves in Stage 12?

I'm assuming tomorrow's stage 11 with it's short climbs and fairly flat finish is another one for the sprinters, but Thursday's stage 12 looks pretty steep. Will we finally see AC, AS or other favorites trying to attack each other? Will Contador hold back a bit to continue to nurse his sore knee? What should we expect?

Wouldn't be surprised. I've heard more than one commentator remark that the big fireworks will start on Luz Ardiden.

I really don't know. I expect there will be a few attacks to test out each other, but unless one of them isn't able to respond, I don't know that we'll see much separation.

However, if one (or more) can't respond to the attacks, look for some major time gaps.

Stage 12 is Bastille day... expect some French "Hail Marys".
But yeah, Luz Ardiden is the show.

At the least I expect Leopard to push the pace enough to seperate out the pretenders.

Without the knee thing I would have expected Contidor to look to attack. If Leopard believes the knee is weak they may attack.

Worst case for the viewers is the knee is tender and questionable enough that Contidor decides it is best not to test it on stage 12 and Leopard does not believe the knee is bad, that Contidor is trying to get them to attack and plans to counter.

Even for that I would still expect the pace pushing that will take many names out of the discussion.

I've got to wonder, if Contador isn't bluffing, why he would mention his bum knee to the media.

Vino liked to bluff :D Big chance he is, but we will never know until tomorrow. As for AS, who knows either.

if it's like last year it will be just riders marking each other waiting for the other guy to launch an attack.

Could get real boring since there really is only one GC contender.

I'm not saying there is going to be a full on attack, but I think we'll find out who is strong just with the fast tempo that will be set. Anyone that is not a contender for the podium will probably lose minutes in stage 12, and that will definitely provide us a clearer picture.

We might not know all the contenders, but I bet we'll identify a bunch of non-contenders.

I'm expecting some excitement. Hope it's GC, but if it's just the Frenchmen trying to win on Bastille Day, that works for me too :D.

Could get real boring since there really is only one GC contender.

I respectfully disagree.

I respectfully disagree.

Don't you read bikeforums.net?

Clearly only one GC contender, one wonders why the other riders even bother.

It's on like Donky Kong.

If they don't declare themselves, they cease to be GC contenders.

Don't you read bikeforums.net?

Clearly only one GC contender, one wonders why the other riders even bother.

*Confused* We're you being sarcastic?

We might not know all the contenders, but I bet we'll identify a bunch of non-contenders.

That's pretty much how I see it. I don't know if AC can shed AS or FS or CE on this stage but he might gain a few seconds on them. However, this stage will create a total shakedown and reorganization of the GC. I think AC will be cautious because of his knee. On the other hand, if his legs are good and he feels strong he will attack on the final mountain. But not hard enough to win unless he is in the position to do so. Cadel will as always ride cautiously. But he will try to hang with AC and AS. Some specialty climber who is low on the GC may take this stage.

I fully expect to see Cunego and the other specialty climbers hanging around too. Cunego is in great form right now. Sanchez isn't far back. Basso and Gesink will be looking to move up.

And if I were radioshack I would let Levi loose on the mountains to try for the KOM and a stage win or two, especially if Kloden looses time.

*Confused* We're you being sarcastic?


Yes

So it sounds like one prediction is that a few of the most elite riders will leave the rest of the pack behind, but they won't necessarily let each other out of their sight.

expecting the main flotilla of contenders *contador, a schleck, evans, et al...* to finish within 15 seconds of each other but also expecting one or
two of the current contenders *kloden? basso? vandevelde?* to lose a 30 seconds+ chunk of time. what's the forecast? if it's rain, sleet...it will probably be a safety first, attacks second or not at all kinda day.

For the weather forecast:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/52256/tour-de-france-weather-outlook-1.asp

I've been writing stories containing forecasts for every stage. I did write this forecast a couple days ago, but it should be about right.

For the weather forecast:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/52256/tour-de-france-weather-outlook-1.asp

I've been writing stories containing forecasts for every stage. I did write this forecast a couple days ago, but it should be about right.

Wow, you consider stage 12 to only have one major climb, what do you consider the other HC and the Cat 1 climb?

How many times did Andy attack? What about the trackstand AC and AS did last year. I found it anything but boring

R


if it's like last year it will be just riders marking each other waiting for the other guy to launch an attack.

Could get real boring since there really is only one GC contender.

BTW yes tomorrow will be a decisive stage. There will be changes dropped riders, and surpirses.

R

Wow, you consider stage 12 to only have one major climb, what do you consider the other HC and the Cat 1 climb?

The format is a little confusing on that article. The paragraph you're talking about is meant for Stage 13. The one for Stage 12 mentions "the day's three massive climbs."

If they KNOW for sure Contador's knee is bothering him, they will attack like crazy. If they suspect Contador's knee is fine, I think they hold back and as versus calls "heads of state" will cross close together. As they say, you can't win the Tour in a day but you can certainly lose it in a day.

I do wonder how much scouting and spying goes on among teams.

The format is a little confusing on that article. The paragraph you're talking about is meant for Stage 13. The one for Stage 12 mentions "the day's three massive climbs."

This is correct. I wanted it the other way around but somewhere along the line after I wrote it, it got changed. Stage 13 only has one major climb.

Actually the wording looks like it was changed in a paragraph and thats off now too. The forecast hasn't changed, so you can just check out the stage forecasts under the bold. I wish I had seen your guys posts an hour ago, I just got done with work.

13 is meh for a mountain stage. Long decent after the HC climb and space between the two climbs. 14 is a brutish stage which will be a tough challenge.

The one that looks to be the meat gridner is stage 18.