General Cycling Discussion - Are bicycles the future of short-distance transportation?

When the petroleum reserves deplete, we will all probably switch to animal-powered transportation and, of course, human-powered(I am a fanatic of the latter). However, a horse needs to be fed and taken care of(not to mention its environmental footprint), while a bicycle(being an inanimate object) only requires some maintenance. Yes, I think the bikes are the future of short-distance transportation. There really isn't a better solution.
Long-distance transport will be problematic though :(

Assuming the highway system stays the same, why wouldn't bikes be the transportation of choice for long distances for able bodied people? Could you imagine taking 66 with no cars on your bike!

When the petroleum reserves deplete...
Not gonna happen in the lifetime of anyone I'm acquainted with.


I walk to the store (~0.9 miles one way) unless I'm buying tons of food. Then I take the car because it has a big trunk.
Nothing else is within a reasonable cycling distance. So I just ride for exercise and fitness and sometimes camaraderie.

Walking is the future of short distance transportation. Why just now I walked to the bathroom to go pee. Riding my bike would have been a major inconvenience as there is no bike rack outside the bathroom.

I figure people will have an attention span of about 10 seconds by the time oil runs out.So people will forget to eat and die.

Oil based fuels may be/Are Running out but alternatives will be found to replace the stuff. Alternative fuels already exist but are either not readily available or are expensive. Don't worry- fuels will be available to keep your vehicle moving but it may cost a new car- or be very expensive to run---Or both.

I already use the bike for shorter journeys and the car is only used for major shopping trips. And the shorter journeys are up to 20 miles each way. All I have to work out is how to get 200lbs of timber that is 12ft long back from the yard on a bike-- Cars will still be necessary at times.

The stone age didn't end because they ran out of stone.

If we run out of oil (before finding a replacement), nobody will care about the environmental footprint of a horse.

I vote no. Humans as a race are by and large just too lazy. The electric motor will replace the petro engines in use today for basic transportation, how else can one ride in effortless air conditioned comfort and remain dry in a thunderstorm for those in the 'burbs commuting to the city.

Brad

I'm seeing more and more folks using a bike as practical transpo. Not because they love bikes and want to do their bit for the environment, but because they have to.

This question assumes a one-size fits all solution similar to our current use of the automobile. The bicycle is a great means of short distance transportation, but I hope that we see multi-modal transportation as the future. Walking, busing, biking.

In time, we will become more versatile in travel options, as the traditional automobile as we know it today gradually disappears.

Eventually the e-bike will become more popular and take over due to lighter batteries (that last much longer) and are more eco-friendly.

Until then, we'll see more cycle and mass transportation usage. Of course eventually, the bicycle will become the standard mode of travel.

PS.

Now let's look into my crystal ball to see what I'm preparing for dinner...

This question assumes a one-size fits all solution similar to our current use of the automobile. The bicycle is a great means of short distance transportation, but I hope that we see multi-modal transportation as the future. Walking, busing, biking.

And trains.

I have my doubts in much of America...I hope that I am wrong.

Aaron :)

Um, no petroleum, no bikes either. Water bottles are essentially plastic, which is petro-based. Tires are the same. Cyclocomputers, the bodies of lights, reflectors, probably quite a few lubes, the outer covering (shell?) of helmets... bunch of cycling specific swag is tied to Texas Tea.

It's kinda ironic how America is starting to get a fuzzy vision that bikes can be more than toys or recreation, that they are in fact a mode of transportation at the same time that the Chinese are becoming more affluent and reaching for the car keys...

In 20 years everyone will be driving electric cars. Then they'll panic whenever there's a power outage.

Um, no petroleum, no bikes either. Water bottles are essentially plastic, which is petro-based. Tires are the same. Cyclocomputers, the bodies of lights, reflectors, probably quite a few lubes, the outer covering (shell?) of helmets... bunch of cycling specific swag is tied to Texas Tea.

Just because those are currently made from petro-plastics doesn't mean they have to be -- there are plenty of other plastics out there that become economically viable when oil prices climb. You can make excellent plastics from plants, you can make excellent tires from natural rubber, you can make water bottles from aluminum, the best saddles are already made of leather, rapeseed oil makes great chain lube...

Take a look at a bike from WWII or before and you'll see plenty of viable alternatives to petroleum. Cheap oil just pushed them off the market for now.

Bikes are one of many solutions to last-mile transportation. So is walking, solar/electric or plug-in electric, bio-fuels, etc.

The end of cheap oil will mean the end of popular gas-guzzling car designs, it won't mean the end of personal motor vehicles, and it won't solve many of the issues that keep some people from cycling.

Long-distance transportation is different, but for most land journeys, fuel-efficient rail is entirely plausible without petroleum.

It's not so much that oil becomes more scarce, more the number of people who want it increases to include Chinese and Indians. The price goes up so driving reverts to being a high-cost activity. Some people eg in rural area will have to pay the price. In urban areas, the alternatives will become more attractive. The biggest problem will be in the 'burbs where car-based developments will be housing car-lite families.
We will see the end of hyper-mobility, where it is "sensible" to travel 100miles+ to work. We will see the end of mass transportation of non-essential goods and generally use less stuff, more of it made locally.
Bicycles and electric bicycles will become more significant, they already have in the UK.
Rail networks will have to expand and maybe we will see roads-to-rails conversions.
We will see more hyper-efficient, lightweight vehicles for local delivery and transportation, using electric drive with battery or diesel-electric or fuel-cell power units. Everyday vehicles with race-car performance will become a thing of the past.
Some quaint old gas stations will be turned into restaurants, much as the coaching inns were in the UK after trains made them obscelete.

Not gonna happen in the lifetime of anyone I'm acquainted with.
http://www.funnyforumpics.com/forums/ORLY/1/Bush_ORLY.jpg

so you're not aquainted with anyone under the age of 90 or in the final stages of a terminal disease?

Um, no petroleum, no bikes either. Water bottles are essentially plastic, which is petro-based. Tires are the same. Cyclocomputers, the bodies of lights, reflectors, probably quite a few lubes, the outer covering (shell?) of helmets... bunch of cycling specific swag is tied to Texas Tea.

It's kinda ironic how America is starting to get a fuzzy vision that bikes can be more than toys or recreation, that they are in fact a mode of transportation at the same time that the Chinese are becoming more affluent and reaching for the car keys...

It will get to the point where petro-based procucts will be extremely expensive, and the notion of burning petrols will seem insane.

So, yes, PVC, and other plastics will all be 95% recycled products, tires will be repaired much more often, and then recycled into new tires, or will be made from vulcanized rubber again.

Gasoline WILL hit $10/gallon. Then it WILL hit $100/gallon. It's just a matter of time. The earth took a couple billion years to make the oil, and we are burning it at a much faster rate than replacement.

Not gonna happen in the lifetime of anyone I'm acquainted with.


I walk to the store (~0.9 miles one way) unless I'm buying tons of food. Then I take the car because it has a big trunk.
Nothing else is within a reasonable cycling distance. So I just ride for exercise and fitness and sometimes camaraderie.

It's going to happen quite soon. OPEC estimates 40 years of reserves. That's why we're looking at oil shale now. And, there's not too much of that either. Not to mention, it's VERY expensive to extract from shale.

From official US army energy review Sept 2005:



Energy consumption is indispensable to our standard of living, and necessary for the Army to carry out its mission. However, current trends are not sustainable. The impact of excessive, unsustainable energy consumption may undermine the very culture and activities it supports. There is no perfect energy source; all are used at a cost...


The days of inexpensive, convenient, abundant energy sources are quickly drawing to a close. Domestic natural gas production peaked in 1973. The proved domestic reserve lifetime for natural gas at current consumption rates is about 8.4 yrs. The proved world reserve lifetime for natural gas is about 40 years, but will follow a traditional rise to a peak and then a rapid decline. Domestic oil production peaked in 1970 and continues to decline. Proved domestic reserve lifetime for oil is about 3.4 yrs.


World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003. After peak production, supply no longer meets demand, and prices and competition increase. The proved reserve lifetime for world oil is about 41 years, most of this at a declining availability. Our current throw-away nuclear cycle will consume the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years. Unless we dramatically change our consumption practices, the Earth’s finite resources of petroleum and natural gas will become depleted in this century. Coal supplies may last into the next century depending on technology and consumption trends as it starts to replace oil and natural gas.

Not an overly pretty picture, even for electric vehicles, considering how much energy is consumed minus personal vehicles and how little energy is derived from renewables (notice inclusion of coal and nuclear energy reserves).
You can bet your bottom, that in a world with lessening fuel, ordinary people will be bottom of the foodchain.

As far as I can see, no one knows if Hydrogen is truly feasible. It seems likely that it could be possible, but not so to readily (and in such a short time frame), replace petrol cars as the everyday item we know today. Those who believe it is possible seem to rely too much IMHO on a lot of breakthroughs in technology.

Interesting debate showing the possibilities/impossibilities of hydrogen vehicles:

http://debatepedia.idebate.org/en/index.php/Debate:_Hydrogen_vehicles#Infrastructure:_Is_a_hydrogen_fuel_cell_infrastructure_possible.3F

In the interim between a swapover from petrol to hydrogen (if at all possible), I imagine a lot of people will take to the bicycle. Don't forget, mass petrol transportation is only a recent phenomenon in most of the west (post war), and still doesn't exist in a lot of the developing world. in the UK, even in the 1950s, the bicycle was a major part of local transportation.

Of course, we live in a world which has been decentred by the petrol engine. We no longer live and work locally, and most of our food production and supply is petrol dependent. We have unfortunately designed, in the west, at least, a world which is almost entirely dependent on petrol for its everyday functioning. How we can change that in an equally short time during petrol's decline is the more interesting question.
You only had to look at the effects of a fuel crisis on a fuel dependent infrastructure by remembering how long it took for the supermarket shelves to empty in the UK during the fuel strikes of 2000. They were rationing bread at out local supermarket after about four days.

When the petroleum reserves deplete in a thousand years...maybe. DRILL NOW!

When the petroleum reserves deplete in a thousand years...maybe. DRILL NOW!

We're looking at closer 70 years, instead of a thousand, before depletion. Drill where?

How about we do this instead: Take the money we are using to bankroll oil companies, and develop sustainable energy sources?

Since a single oil company, even after repaying for part of a cleanup, makes $5 billion a year, I'm sure we can cut the $200 billion we give them annually.

When the petroleum reserves deplete, we will all probably switch to animal-powered transportation

You are completely delusional if you think that. Plastics and oil based fuels are inherently a sustainable industry under any domestic load; space exploration is problematic on fuel oil.

Economics are hitting a wall and nobody cares. Cars are too expensive; rent is too expensive and people are buying houses for an even worse financial situation; college tuition is too expensive. Biking to work saves me $6k-$7k per year, which is absolutely huge. These are the big problems. The middle class is disappearing and this is why.

Gasoline WILL hit $10/gallon. Then it WILL hit $100/gallon. It's just a matter of time. The earth took a couple billion years to make the oil, and we are burning it at a much faster rate than replacement.

Ironically, if the Gulf of Mexico increases in temperature several degrees--enough for a few degrees rise deep down--we'll experience a global mass extinction event. There's enough methane stored there to power everything on this planet FOREVER.

Ironically, if the Gulf of Mexico increases in temperature several degrees--enough for a few degrees rise deep down--we'll experience a global mass extinction event. There's enough methane stored there to power everything on this planet FOREVER.

lol

Are bicycles the future of short-distance transportation?


I have my doubts in much of America...I hope that I am wrong.

Aaron :)
Here's a glimmer of hope. Boston is an ideal walking city, with a subway system, yet is notorious for its insane traffic patterns and many motorist still persevere in trying to drive in the crazy downtown. In July of this year a modern bikesharing system was introduced, called "Hubway" and on this past Monday, the Boston Globe reported its early success. BTW a nickname for Boston, besides "Beantown" is "The Hub" [of the Universe] (Oliver Wendell Holmes). :thumb:

http://articles.boston.com/2011-09-05/news/30116570_1_bicycles-stations-memberships

Early success of Hub bike sharing surprises even program’s backers
September 05, 2011|By Eric Moskowitz, Globe Staff

"In its first month, Boston’s European-style bicycle sharing-system pedaled past expectations, attracting riders more than twice as fast as similar programs in Denver and Minneapolis.

"As of Aug. 28, the one-month mark, the program known as Hubway had attracted 2,319 annual subscribers and witnessed 36,612 station-to-station trips. At its current clip, the system is on track to surpass 100,000 rides before Halloween.

"By comparison, Denver’s B-cycle took 7 ½ months, and Minneapolis’s Nice Ride took nearly six months to reach 100,000 riders. By that point, neither program had enlisted 2,000 members, despite having at least as many bikes and docking stations as Boston.

"'It’s been wildly successful,’’ said Mary McLaughlin, Hubway’s general manager. She initially hoped to sell 2,000 memberships by Thanksgiving, shortly before the bicycles get taken in for winter.

"Nicole Freedman, director of the city’s Boston Bikes initiative and who helped create Hubway at Mayor Thomas M. Menino’s request, said the bikes are used for as many as 2,000 trips a day.

"For now, the curiosity factor remains high, with the distinctive silver-and-green bikes and solar-powered stations drawing stares. Strolling the waterfront the other day, Stephen and Julia Haggarty stopped to inspect the bicycles and study an ATM-style kiosk terminal in the Seaport District. The bikes have not yet made it to the couple’s Savin Hill neighborhood in Dorchester.

"'They look comfy,’’ said Julia, 44, a student.

“"Where do you drop it off?’’ said Stephen, 36, a Harvard Medical School scientist, as his wife moved toward the map. He splits time between Massachusetts General Hospital and the Broad Institute in Kendall Square, a cross-river trip impractical by car and never quite fast enough on foot or by MBTA.

“"You would use it, especially after they put them in Cambridge,’’ she said. “Oh,’’ he said, eyeing a map with ample room for expansion, “that’d be a dream.’’

"In addition to annual members, more than 10,000 tourists and casual riders have signed up for one-day ($5) or three-day ($12) memberships to ride the nearly 600 bikes scattered among 53 stations. An annual membership costs $85, but has been discounted to $60 until Oct. 1.

"The “doomsday scenario’’ envisioned by critics - crashes, graffiti, theft - has not materialized, said David Loutzenheiser, the Metropolitan Area Planning Council transportation planner who helped Boston plan Hubway and work out its contract with Alta Bicycle Share, the Oregon company that installed the system and maintains the bikes and stations."

I guess Hubway is also a play on the word "Subway."

When the petroleum reserves deplete, we will all probably switch to animal-powered transportation and, of course, human-powered(I am a fanatic of the latter). However, a horse needs to be fed and taken care of(not to mention its environmental footprint), while a bicycle(being an inanimate object) only requires some maintenance.
If the petroleum runs out, it'll be a heck of a lot easier & cheaper to breed horses than manufacture bicycles.

Plus soon there would be no roads smooth enough for bicycles, which is something else many people like to conveniently forget about....

In the US, bicycles were extremely-short-range children's toys up until the roadbuilding WPA projects of the 1930's-era Depression. It was not until there were smooth paved roads that even moderate distance travel by bicycle became practical for ordinary people. Yes there are famous tales of people who were tough enough to do it anyway--and that's why those tales are famous.

Previous to that time, country roads were all [rutted] dirt and town streets were almost all gravel, except for the primary "main" streets, which were laid brick or cobblestone. Sidewalks were ONLY on the main street, and usually had two steps down to the street surface, partly to keep mud from passing horse-drawn carts off pedestrians, and partly to make it easier to get in and out of horse-drawn wagons.

Petroleum is both a material and an energy source. If petroleum disappears and no substitute is found--cars, bicycles and lots of other things (like computers) are going to disappear along with it.

Even most high school drop-outs are aware that any natural product derived from fossil fuels is limited.

To what degree fossil fuels are limited, only the "experts" really know. Whatever, the case may be...I wouldn't bet on fossil fuels providing the bulk of our energy needs for the 22nd century...Heck! We'll be lucky to get THERE on so many fronts... Energy is just one of 'em!

We humans as a global family need to seriously put aside our egotistical differences and solve the Alternative Energy Problem, ASAP!!!

PS.

Meanwhile...Mass Transit and BIKE!

In the long run,unless we figure out how to do nuclear fusion or come up with some way of using the suns energy or the worlds population drops 90%+....we're good as dead.

If the world population continues to double each 10 years, shouldn't the question be "are bicycles the future of.....transportation?"

Even most high school drop-outs are aware that any natural product derived from fossil fuels is limited.

To what degree fossil fuels are limited, only the "experts" really know. Whatever, the case may be...I wouldn't bet on fossil fuels providing the bulk of our energy needs for the 22nd century...Heck! We'll be lucky to get THERE on so many fronts... Energy is just one of 'em!

We humans as a global family need to seriously put aside our egotistical differences and solve the Alternative Energy Problem, ASAP!!!

PS.

Meanwhile...Mass Transit and BIKE!


Sadly, us conserving gasoline right now will do nothing in the long run. Oil is a supply/demand market. If a sizable portion of us use less of it, the supply "goes up" (in that less of it is consumed), which causes prices to drop, which in turn means less people are concerned with making fuel efficient vehicles because there is no market incentive to do so. Which means that people will continue to make and purchase gas guzzling monstrosities, consuming more fuel than they would had there been less fuel available, ultimately meaning that the market "corrects" itself by consuming roughly the same amount of fuel regardless of how many of us try to conserve it.

In short, capitalism is screwing over the planet, and there's really nothing we can do about it in our current economic system.

Sadly, us conserving gasoline right now will do nothing in the long run. Oil is a supply/demand market. If a sizable portion of us use less of it, the supply "goes up" (in that less of it is consumed), which causes prices to drop, which in turn means less people are concerned with making fuel efficient vehicles because there is no market incentive to do so. Which means that people will continue to make and purchase gas guzzling monstrosities, consuming more fuel than they would had there been less fuel available, ultimately meaning that the market "corrects" itself by consuming roughly the same amount of fuel regardless of how many of us try to conserve it.

In short, capitalism is screwing over the planet, and there's really nothing we can do about it in our current economic system.

No economic system will interfere with our inevitable fate, if we don't act soon! :eek:

Probably a little of both. I think many Americans in particular won't be physically able to ride their bike to reasonable distances. I'm sure if there was a major energy crisis elderly and morbidly obese will be the first to go. After the initial shock and a few expendable people die people will shift into a rhythm. Electric bicycles will be the transportation of choice for moderate distances and the classic bike will be a staple. That's my opinion at least.

No economic system will interfere with our inevitable fate, if we don't act soon! :eek:

Fully agreed, but I really don't know what the answer is in the US when half the country are firmly anti-fact and anti-science. But this is getting too close to P&R, so I'll can it before I start spewing opinions that are likely to aggravate :D

Sadly, us conserving gasoline right now will do nothing in the long run. Oil is a supply/demand market. If a sizable portion of us use less of it, the supply "goes up" (in that less of it is consumed), which causes prices to drop, which in turn means less people are concerned with making fuel efficient vehicles because there is no market incentive to do so. Which means that people will continue to make and purchase gas guzzling monstrosities, consuming more fuel than they would had there been less fuel available, ultimately meaning that the market "corrects" itself by consuming roughly the same amount of fuel regardless of how many of us try to conserve it.

In short, capitalism is screwing over the planet, and there's really nothing we can do about it in our current economic system.

There's one easy answer that's political suicide because burning foreign oil is seen as patriotic -- raise gas taxes.

That hits demand, now and in the future. As higher gas prices drive more fuel efficiency, gas tax revenues will drop. Raise taxes again. Do it slowly and steadily over five or ten years, giving time for the economy to adapt to higher fuel costs, and you'll avoid the sort of economic shock we get when demand drives prices up by a dollar within a single year.

If you really want to protect national security, add an oil extraction surtax within the U.S. so we have economic incentive to preserve our own oil longer than foreign oil.

Are bicycles the future of short-distance transportation?


Here's a glimmer of hope. Boston is an ideal walking city, with a subway system, yet is notorious for its insane traffic patterns and many motorist still persevere in trying to drive in the crazy downtown. In July of this year a modern bikesharing system was introduced, called "Hubway" and on this past Monday, the Boston Globe reported its early success. BTW a nickname for Boston, besides "Beantown" is "The Hub" [of the Universe] (Oliver Wendell Holmes). :thumb:


I agree, however Boston has a strong advantage, being old and compact, try this in some of the more modern cities like Dallas...

Just to hazard a guess, I would say that only about 1/4-1/3 of the US population lives in a situation where bike share is even remotely viable.

Aaron :)

Yes....

Plus soon there would be no roads smooth enough for bicycles, which is something else many people like to conveniently forget about....


You can make roads out of lots of non-petro based products: Concrete, for example. And, asphalt can be 100% recycled (In fact, most new roads just chew up the old pavements, re-heat it, and lay it back down).

No. Most people in developed countries are too plugged in to the high mobility lifestyle. China is on it's way.
Present North American civil/economic/societal infrastructure just about demands an individual fuel driven vehicle.
You can't drop off the kids, meet your buds for coffee, go to work, stop at the store, take the dog to vet, go home, oops, forgot to pick up the kids, on a HPV.
Bio-fuels, Methane and (on the outer fringe for now) Hydrogen, will be the replacement(s) for gasoline.
If replacement fuels never materialize, there will a collapse of the American lifestyle and people will be forced to return to large urban centers.
Cities that don't have an electrical powered mass transit system will be forced to develope one, to go where?
You will have(by North American standards) extreme overcrowding and the social ills that come with that.
Think about all the people, and their families, who commute in and out of major cities like NY, L. A., Denver, Chicago, etc. who would(will?) be forced, in less than a generation, to give up the single family home in the subs and move into a high density housing cube in the city. MAJOR SOCIEO/ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.

Plus soon there would be no roads smooth enough for bicycles, which is something else many people like to conveniently forget about....

Don't tell that to the billions who ride unpaved roads today... Or those who bicycle on brick, or stone, or concrete... Cycling has been viable mid range transportation since Dunlap.

Keep in mind that this is a bicycle oriented website and we are all or almost all pro bicycle. We have a tendency to like our bikes and think the rest of the USA thinks the same, or at least should.
If you want an answer to your question, just go to any mall or place where there are a lot of people with a good cross section to watch. Then ask yourself as you view the different people if that one would ride a bike, or maybe that one.
I think you will be able to answer the question easily enough.
Our society is spread out to far to make bike transportation practical. I'll bet that most of our citizens are to out of shape to even consider riding a bike on occasion for anything more than fresh air and exercise.

I'll bet that most of our citizens are to out of shape to even consider riding a bike on occasion for anything more than fresh air and exercise.
When riding on a busy roadway, the air isn't so fresh. :(

When the petroleum reserves deplete in a thousand years...maybe. DRILL NOW!

OK let's start in your backyard.

You can't drop off the kids, meet your buds for coffee, go to work, stop at the store, take the dog to vet, go home, oops, forgot to pick up the kids, on a HPV.


My friends and I do all of these things--and much more--on bicycles. Anybody who's interested in doing more chores and activities on bikes should check out the Living Carfree subforum and the Utility Bike subforum.

Keep in mind that this is a bicycle oriented website and we are all or almost all pro bicycle. We have a tendency to like our bikes and think the rest of the USA thinks the same, or at least should.
If you want an answer to your question, just go to any mall or place where there are a lot of people with a good cross section to watch. Then ask yourself as you view the different people if that one would ride a bike, or maybe that one.
I think you will be able to answer the question easily enough.
Our society is spread out to far to make bike transportation practical. I'll bet that most of our citizens are to out of shape to even consider riding a bike on occasion for anything more than fresh air and exercise.

Hey there Bobn!

Personally, I can see this scenario coming, as I gaze into my crystal ball:

Since most of our adult citizens are either obese or overweight, govermental mandates will become necessary. Currently, about 2/5 of urban adolescents are overweight along with about that same number of Baby-Boomers who also BTW, have high blood pressure, diabetes, or some combination of the three. This will cause govermental bicycling mandates to be enforced upon the public.

We are a grossly out of shape nation. As I'm certain you are aware, as you've already indicated to some degree.

We are also facing a very serious fossil fuel depletion problem, as well as undue price hikes in petroleum products. Therefore, we need to either ration all petro-products or at the very least, limit their consumption.

It therefore, will be entirely practical to make greater bicycle travel compulsory for more able-bodied Americans. Those Americans who have health related problems primarily due to the lack of proper exercise should have bicycling mandated as a part of their daily regimen. Recreational driving of automobiles should be considered to be a misdemeanor, punishable by fines. Therefore, drivers of autos are either going to work or school, if driving lawfully. If their destination is greater than a pre-calculated distance, driving will be automatically assumed, if in rural areas.

Errands to shopping centers and grocery stores should be permited, but limited as well. Most travel should be either by mass transit or bicycle.

Can you see anything like this in your crystal ball?

I don't see any need for government mandates or rationing -- simply eliminating hidden subsidies for driving would provide a huge incentive for many exurbians to abandon ridiculously long driving commutes in favor of more urban densities. We don't have to stay as spread out as we are today. That's a temporary feature of the century of cheap oil, and societies can adapt surprisingly quickly when they really have to.

Even obese, sedentary adults can usually manage a mile or two to get to a transit line. They won't be riding for half an hour at 18mph, but they can plod along at twice walking speed to get to a bus stop. That doesn't take an expensive bike or a perfect road or great athletic ability. It's something an elderly rider can do while smoking.

I don't see any need for government mandates or rationing -- simply eliminating hidden subsidies for driving would provide a huge incentive for many exurbians to abandon ridiculously long driving commutes in favor of more urban densities. ...
Yea but like I said: all those roads you ride on were built for cars, not bicycles.

The matter of "car subsidies" is always a tough one to discuss as none of us really knows how much money is drawn from elsewhere to pay for the "car-centric life-stlye", but one fact we do know is this: poor countries tend to have not many cars, as well as not many paved roads. Or things like hospitals, reliable water and electricity supplies, and lots of other nice things. The economic development that allows building roads is the same one that allows owning cars.


Even obese, sedentary adults can usually manage a mile or two to get to a transit line. ...
Yes but in many regards, a mass-transit system isn't as efficient as a car. That's why when you're having a heart attack, people don't take you to a bus stop and wait for a bus to take you to (or closer to) the hospital.

Over the last ~100 years time, transportation has improved dramatically--it is faster, more convenient (available when you want, and going directly to wherever you want) and easily usable generally in all weather conditions. Considered that way, a bicycle or a city bus is a huge step backward from a car. There is a value in transportation with regard to how well it suits your desires, that is totally separate from its pollution or fuel efficiency. Does that value matter? Yes, it does--even to you.



Here's a demonstration of the concept: if owning individual cars is wasteful and collective transportation on buses is vastly better, why are you not applying that same principle to bicycles as well?
All you seem to care about is the pollution the car engine makes, but the car manufacturing causes quite a lot of pollution too (bicycle-making pollution is mostly just in China, so you've probably never seen it).

So let's try that, shall we? Because manufacturing bicycles causes pollution too, you know. And who would be so stupid as to support anything that pollutes unnecessarily?

So then--let's make it illegal to own your own bicycle.
From now on you can only own 1/10th of a bicycle, and you can only buy tandems. Nine other people each must own the other 9 shares of that bicycle, or you cannot have it at all.

To avoid arguments over use, the bicycle has to have a set route designated, with specified stops. At various times, one person in the group will be responsible for pedaling the bicycle around the stops, and it will only be available for your use at those stops, at those times. -That is, if it's not already taken. If it's already full, then you just need to wait until it comes around again and there's room for you.

Sounds like a dream, right?
Isn't efficiency wonderful?
With this plan, you have everything you asked for with cars, applied to bicycles: less pollution produced from less bicycles made (90% less pollution!), a lower cost of ownership (1/10th the usual costs!), and shared transportation to save on parking space! (~1/10th the total parking spaces needed!) What's not to like?
What sort of an inbred moron would not think this was a great idea?
What sort of ignorant fool could possibly object?

Or is bicycles different from cars somehow?