Commuting - Do high gasoline prices really push more people to commute by bike?

Do high gasoline prices really push more people to commute by bike?

Well, let's see. Okay, yes.

I think that gas prices are certainly a factor for many people. However, it is not a factor for others including me. I enjoy a commute to get out in the nice weather. I have no intention of giving up my cars or air conditioning or heating. I can afford gasoline at virtually any possible price that would not collapse the world economic system and intend to keep on pumping gasoline into my Jeep as long as I can find a pump to dispense it.

Yes, price is just one more excuse to ride my bike to work. My jeep gets about 14mph and that is amazingly it is about that far to work. So I save a gallon of gas each way.

Do high gasoline prices really push more people to commute by bike?

No.

I wouldn't want to ride more than an hour one way and once you figure in traffic lights that gets you to about a 15 mile commute. Assuming a car that gets only 15 miles per gallon (I get 17 the way I drive) that's two gallons round trip. An extra buck a gallon is $2 a day, two dollars more $4, three dollars more (double) $6 which is in line with a latte.

yes, for some people at least

For people who are already on the edge, just waiting for that one little push, sure; but, for most people no. Most people will cut back in other areas; or, cut back in discretionary driving before they will start to bike commute.

There are always exceptions, I am speaking of the bulk of the people. Like I have mentioned, my father rode his bike to work until he retired in the 80's. However, most people will not ride until they are shown that it is possible and popular.

For showing it is possible, I worked with a guy (in fact, my direct supervisor) who started riding is bike to work. He told us that it was because he was trying to get fit for hunting season. In reality he had lost his license for a DUI. He learned that it was possible to live without a car and even after he got his license back, he continued to bike commute.
(In reality, it was easy for him because we had company cars; so, if he needed to go somewhere that was not easily bike-able he would just ask one of us to drive him. I even towed his boat to a lake, on the clock, one Friday.)

Others want to see that it is popular and safe. The safe I reefer to is not physical safety, I mean job safety. My daughter, who is in college, lost a job last summer because she was riding a bike to work. She was told that they needed people who were serious about working, not using it as an excuse to play around on a bike.

The other is just plain popularity, most people do not want to differ from the norm. We are social animals and conformism is a part of that.

So no, gas prices alone will not push most people to bike commuting. However, they will nudge many who are on the edge and that will help make it seem to be normal behavior and being normal will draw more to the edge. . . ad infinitum.

Some will, depending on distance, weather, and access.

The real loser of high gas prices, however, will be the economy. As the price of gas goes up, people will chose to cut off any unnecessary spending. People have gotten fed up these past few years. It's already started as a matter of fact. And earlier than it normally starts other years. Consumer spending is going to suck this year.

It seems to us like a logical conclusion but without any actual data to back it up I wouldn't be so sure and frankly I'm too lazy to look for it.

Certainly winter riding numbers around here are probably not affected but come spring it might inspire a few, and I would also expect a slight uptick in public transit ridership. I think that unless the prices changes are massive and rapid people just find ways to shift their budgets and absorb it even if it hurts. That's certainly a hell of a lot easier than riding a bike :eek:

As an aside, the guys at my local Scooter store (Scooterville Minneapolis) told me that spikes in gas prices have a direct and immediate affect on their business. The higher gas goes, the more they sell. Those guys are probably gonna have a good spring.

I'd say yes, maybe not by a huge number, but with our local regular gasoline currently at $4.50 a gallon, there's has been an uptick in the number of local commuter cyclists.

A few years ago, before the Great Recession really took hold, when gas was over $4 and looked like it was heading for $5, the number of bike commuters on my local commuter rail line more than doubled, then tapered back down as the recession deepened.

I've been seeing a few new bike commuters lately, but not many -- of course, not many people will start bike commuting in the middle of a wet Seattle winter. Many of those who start in spring or summer will continue through the next winter, but few will take the leap for the first time when it's in the mid-30s, dark, and raining.

Yes. In fact, gas price was a good motivation today. My car tank was empty and was going to fill it up but gas price went up sharply this morning. I used that as an "excuse" to bike to work even though it was a little cold. I can afford the higher price and but not giving "them" money is one reason among others.

Yes, it does. Back in 2008 when gas prices went above $4, we had a lot of people come into the shop looking for bikes to commute. While a lot of businesses were having trouble, we were having record breaking months. When prices went down, we didn't get nearly as many people coming in looking for a bike and accessories to commute to work or shopping.

For some people, absolutely. Others will never commute by bike no matter how outrageous gas prices get. For example, I know some women who will carpool, buy an electric car, take the bus, move closer to work and basically explore every option under the sun before even considering getting 'all sweaty' on a bike. To their minds bikes are simply not an acceptable option. We have a lot of women like that in the larger cities.

No.

I wouldn't want to ride more than an hour one way and once you figure in traffic lights that gets you to about a 15 mile commute. Assuming a car that gets only 15 miles per gallon (I get 17 the way I drive) that's two gallons round trip. An extra buck a gallon is $2 a day, two dollars more $4, three dollars more (double) $6 which is in line with a latte.

WTF kinda latte are you drinking for $6?

It seems to us like a logical conclusion but without any actual data to back it up I wouldn't be so sure and frankly I'm too lazy to look for it.

Certainly winter riding numbers around here are probably not affected but come spring it might inspire a few, and I would also expect a slight uptick in public transit ridership. I think that unless the prices changes are massive and rapid people just find ways to shift their budgets and absorb it even if it hurts. That's certainly a hell of a lot easier than riding a bike :eek:

As an aside, the guys at my local Scooter store (Scooterville Minneapolis) told me that spikes in gas prices have a direct and immediate affect on their business. The higher gas goes, the more they sell. Those guys are probably gonna have a good spring.

It's alright Modernjess, I did it for ya!

Your suspicions are absoultely correct! For the past decade now, it would appear that bicycle sales increased right along with the spikes in gasoline prices.

www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=051001131406.p6b25h5l&show_article=1 (http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=051001131406.p6b25h5l&show_article=1)

www.bikesbelong.org/resources/stats-and-research/research/gas-pricesbike-sales-survey/ (http://www.bikesbelong.org/resources/stats-and-research/research/gas-pricesbike-sales-survey/)

Apparently, gas price hikes make a heck of a lot of difference!

- Slim :)

http://www.yehudamoon.com/images/strips/2008-05-08.gif

--

http://www.yehudamoon.com/images/strips/2008-05-30.gif

WTF kinda latte are you drinking for $6?

Most likely a grande with an extra shot plus soy milk and some other add on.... like internet plus 9.25% tax. Pastry will run you another $3 after tax. Plus, it's Silicon Valley where you can't get a crappy medium sized latte for under $3.00. My once a week splurge drink of choice is a $3.25 espresso milk tea with pearls from the Asian coffee shop.

For some people, absolutely. Others will never commute by bike no matter how outrageous gas prices get. For example, I know some women who will carpool, buy an electric car, take the bus, move closer to work and basically explore every option under the sun before even considering getting 'all sweaty' on a bike. To their minds bikes are simply not an acceptable option. We have a lot of women like that in the larger cities.

Er, I am about 200 mi to the North from you and at my workplace we have two regular commuters, 45 RT and 30 RT - both women. Boys tried and quit. Go figure...
OTOH, in sunny Florida just stepping outside gets one "all sweaty".

Er, I am about 200 mi to the North from you and at my workplace we have two regular commuters, 45 RT and 30 RT - both women. Boys tried and quit. Go figure...
OTOH, in sunny Florida just stepping outside gets one "all sweaty".

Those RT figures in Florida make those ladies very hardcore. My commute, when I was working, was 44 RT. Not a difficult distance, but it does take huge chunks out of your day, and riding that distance in the rain is less than pleasant.

I was drenched in sweat when I arrived at work, and when I got home. I hope your workplace has showers.

I'm sure high gas prices can spur people in certain areas into commuting by bike. If I lived a couple of miles from work, could just hop on my cruiser, and ride to work at a slow pace in my regular clothes, I'd never own a car. But lots of areas of rural America place people 20 miles or more from their workplaces.

I'm sure some people will give it a try. Most will just complain loudly and continue to drive 75/80 mph on the highway in their SUV's and trophy pick-up trucks.

(those who need a pick-up for work are not included in the above commentary)

For most people, the decision to bike commute has nothing to do with the price of gasoline -- and that includes cyclists. High gas prices might encourage a few people to carpool, take public transit or limit their driving, but very few people would use that as a reason to bike commute. I work in a place that is very environmentally conscious, and even here we have few bike commuters, carpoolers or even transit riders. Most Americans are simply in love with their cars and don't even consider alternatives.

I honestly feel that it won't increase cycling commutes on the big scale. They may take a bicycle for very small things, but that would be a surprise. I believe that if anything, they will not make needless trips and think about routes. Some will even go and trade in their 2-5 year old vehicle, take a hit on the trade in and purchase a more fuel efficient car. Then they will brag about how it gets 15 miles better gas mileage and how they are saving money, yet totally oblivious to the fact that they just gained a 4-5 year loan at $300+ a month (and that it would have been better to just keep the almost paid off vehicle).

RE: Latte
I make my own. Maybe $.85 with vanilla and 1% :D

RE: Commuting and fuel prices
I think people THINK they want/need to commute by bicycle due to prices. Then reality of time, effort, sweat, fat a$$e$, etc. come into play. Also, unless you ride a Fred bike like mine (free) there is the expense of buying the bike and accessories. A lot of folks freak out in the LBS when they see the cost of a "simple" "English Racer" 3-spd internal hub commuter marketed bike.
But, LONG TERM, yeah, we'll see some learn from the cost spike and become hard core commuters. The % may not be huge but some will stick with it due to health benefits, costs, and the endorphin rush!! :)

in austria we pay around 1,8 USD for 1 liter of diesel. so definately YES.

Gas will have to get ridiculous before we really see a lot of bicycle commuters for gas reasons. $6/gal should about do it. Even then, it'll probably only be those that live near work. I don't imagine too many people, apart from the eccentric commuters in this forum, who would do more than ten miles each way every day.

Absolutely. As gas prices rise, people are incentivized to seek alternate forms of transportation. Some subset of them will look to ride their bikes.

It's at least partly a class thing. There are plenty of poor people here who bike and take the bus a lot more when gas prices are high. They are proposing to raise bus fares substantially in the next few months, so maybe that will cause more people to bike. As far as middle class and above, I haven't heard of more than a few who started bike commuting, and I haven't seen much of an uptick in the number of people riding nice bikes and/or with commuting accessories when I commute. Maybe more in the spring - we'll have to see.

got me started some years back when gas got over 3 bucks.

I expect that increasing gas prices would have the opposite effect. Increasing gas prices reduce discretionary spending. Most people who commute probably start riding bikes for other reasons, and then find that they enjoy riding and that commuting is a possibility.

The Breibart cite made me laugh.


"Bicycle sales are near an all-time high with 19 million sold last year -- close to the 20 million sold during the oil embargo in the early 1970s," said Blumenthal, whose association is based in Boulder in the western state of Colorado.

So when the population of the US was about 200 million (1973), 20 million bikes were sold. And when the population of the US is about 310 million, 19 million bikes were sold. That means that in 1973, one bike was sold for about every 10 people in the US. Now we are selling about one bike for every 16 people in the US. And that's good news? :)

Increasing gas prices probably reduce the amount of money people spend on non-essentials, whatever they consider non-essentials. Gas to get to work is probably considered an "essential" by most folks.

when gas went to $4/gal I was living 14 miles away from the office and didn't even own a bike. When my lease was up and I had money to get a place in town I moved and bought a bike just in case gas got any higher. I started riding my bike to work just to see if I was still in good enough shape to do it. I found out that I really like riding my bike to work, though recently my commute was cut from 3 miles to .5 miles. But I have become a believer in taking my bike for errands under 5 miles including all my grocery shopping, and regularly ride 9 miles out to have a pint or two. I bought a cheap trailer so I can use my bike to go do laundry. That payback is about 3 months at 4$/gal.

So yes, for at least one person here, higher gas prices got me on my bike and now I'm not getting off of it.

Higher gas prices push more onto public transportation, more fuel efficient cars, electric cars, scooters, motorcycles, telecommuting, carpooling and bikes. Lots of real world examples out there.

Higher gas prices produces behavioral changes in the following order:
1) Complain more
2) Cut back on non-essential expenses to pay for gas
3) Cut back on essential expenses to pay for gas
4) Drive a little less
5) Drive a lot less
6) Seek out alternative motorized means of transportation
7) Walk more
8) Bike more

Although some people will start biking due to high gas prices, most will not until we see *much* higher prices. Possibly $20/gallon. They may not even then. They'll just demand subsidized gasoline. :twitchy:

People who can afford to drive to work now will likely to afford it even if gas hits $6, after that, who knows. But gas price increase causes mass transit fares to go up and that can push many people to ride bikes. All cost of living will go up to as gas prices increase.

Not really unless we hit prices like Europe has. But we are so engrained in having a car and driving so it will be a hard thing to shake out. Look at the fact that we STILL use gas. With technology, we could have had a better energy fuel a while ago but we didnt. Why? Because we keep buying gas and selling cars.

For me, my RT is 22 miles. I save some on gas but I do it because I love it and I do not need to find itme for the gym and be indoors all the time. I love it. I love saving money too. he he he

I would say definitely. But not because of a $0.50 spike. Long term though...as prices break $5 and continue to rise people will wise up. That in turn will make it more acceptable and fashionable, and more people will ride. Huh...that doesn't sound my usual pessimistic self...

Gas prices helped, but it was more maintenance costs ... I have had 3 cars in a row that I had to pour money into for parts... I did plenty of the work myself .... I am just tired of wasting all my free time fixing my car, so I sold it, bought a bike and haven't looked back since...

Consumer spending, as a whole, will tank before commuting by bike takes hold in this country. Our culture has been car based for some years, though a paradigm shift is starting to happen again, (painfully), as more and more cyclists take to the roads again like it used to be in older times and motorists that have never had to share the road with bycicles before are having to do so once again.

But traditionally, Americans cut off all non essential consumer spending first. And it has already started this year. People are opting not to spend, some out of necessity... others to protest the current state of affairs with oil being traded and speculated as a commodity in world markets to jack up the price as far as they can.

the problem is that those who feel the pinch the most are the ones who drive the furthest, which makes them the least likely bike commuters. I have a 13 mile round trip by car (15 by bike), so gas prices don't impact me that much (33 MPG). I have a co-worker who drives 150 miles Round Trip. He is obviously feeling the pinch, but he's also not going to be commuting by bike anytime soon.

[QUOTE]I expect that increasing gas prices would have the opposite effect. Increasing
gas prices reduce discretionary spending. Most people who commute probably start
riding bikes for other reasons, and then find that they enjoy riding and that
commuting is a possibility.

The Breibart cite made me laugh.

This is entirely possible.


So when the population of the US was about 200 million (1973), 20 million
bikes were sold. And when the population of the US is about 310 million, 19
million bikes were sold. That means that in 1973, one bike was sold for every 10
people in the US.

You must understand the context within your calculated assumption.

Alright, so you weren't around at that time during the 1973-74 OPEC oil embargo...

At that time, the feeling was that traveling by automobile as we once knew it, was quickly coming to an end. Meaning that traveling via the use of any petro at all was about to come to an abrupt and final end, due to the OPEC nation's embargo against the west because of their support of Israel. Though international demand remained the same, a barrel of crude oil increased in price from $3/barrel to $12/barrel. President Nixon ordered that gasoline could and would have to be rationed, and certainly not to be sold on Sundays. That meant that on Fridays and Saturdays, long lines of motorists would assemble at gasoline service stations to possibly fill up for maybe that last time before some other impending threat on the availability of petroleum would occur. People were scared to death about their immediate method of travel. The west hasn't quite experienced anything like that since. The Arab-OPEC embargo still has had lasting effects upon the world's economy since then, with respect to expected crude oil pricing, crude oil exploration expenditures, search for alternative energy sources, and development of crude oil facilities outside of OPEC.

At that time, the threat was greater! Therefore, the spike in human behavior was greater, as well! The entire nation felt as though we were living from week to week, day by day, and from moment to moment during the Arab-OPEC embargo. Many Americans were ready to go to war in order to dominate OPEC petroleum.

That's why many Americans wanted to take possession of oil fields immediately after the first Gulf war, when Iraq was so soundly defeated, after Saadam Hussein took over the oil fields of Kuwait, almost two decades later.

America hadn't had its feathers ruffled that much during the twentieth century (outside of war), since Pearl Harbor and the Bay of Pigs!

What we're experiencing in more recent times, merely pales by comparison....


Now we are selling about one bike for every 16 people in the US. And that's
good news? Increasing gas prices probably reduce the amount of money people
spend on non-essentials, whatever they consider non-essentials. Gas to get to
work is probably considered an "essential" by most folks.

It's certainly good news when another person decides to take on cycling as opposed to continuing the infusion of toxic carbon-containing gases into our atmosphere. Thus, increasing the ever-expanding size of the carbon footprint of humans, upon this earth. This human behavior is adversely affecting the entire world ecosystem.

What is essential for life tomorrow, will be determined by our actions, today!

We have a very limited perspective about what is essential, because we as humans, have a DNA imposed disease called, "tunnel vision".

One big hurdle is that most people have adapted their lifestyles to the automobile -- that is, where they live, work and how they commute. Many workers commute ridiculously long distances in their cars in the US. They complain about gas prices because it is a big part of their budget, but it is also their choice (which they conveniently forget or ignore). It is not unusual where I live (and I assume this is similar for most US cities) for people to live 15, 20, 30 and even 50 miles or more from their workplace. I live about 15 miles away, and I my commute distance is actually relatively short compared to many of my coworkers. Even for a serious cyclist, bike commuting 10-15 miles each way is quite a step to take. For someone who doesn't currently cycle or does so only occasionally, it is a huge hurdle that is perceived as an impossibility.

Transit is a similar issue for many people. We have buses here but no train system for commuters. Bus routes are very limited, so it would take me about 90 minutes each way to commute by bus -- much longer than it takes to ride my bike.

We're not going to see drastic changes even with double gas prices. You hear how Japan is full of bikes, but step outside of the metropolitan areas and you have people living in situations not too far off from most of the US, with slightly better infrastructure than the US but still a fairly car-dependent culture. This is with $7-$8/gal gas prices.

We probably won't see drastic changes unless something like the 99% movement uses the bike as a tool to go against the 'greedy auto manufacturers' or something of that sort. Doubt that kind of thing will become a main focus of their agenda though, and even if it does that'll bring with it a host of other problems with it. Not that bike issues aren't already a polarized political agenda, but...

Yes, I started the bike commute thing 3+ years ago when gas hit $ 4.00 a gallon. It was cutting into my BEER and coffee budget, really upsetting. I live in the suburbs North of Boston, and it s a car driving mentality. People drive 2 miles to the soccer games or to get bread and milk ? I tell my friends and neighbors I pedal 18 miles to work and they give me crazy looks. I usually do 2-6 trips per week. I tell them it only takes me 20 minutes longer by bike. I have bike paths the last 6 miles into Boston, really nice. Biking seems to be more popular with the city/ car light/ student crowds who live closer to Boston. We have made some good progress toward making Boston a more bike friendly city in the last 3 years. Last year unveiled a new, very successful bike share system. So slowly we're making some progress forward.

Higher gas prices produces behavioral changes in the following order:
1) Complain more
2) Cut back on non-essential expenses to pay for gas
3) Cut back on essential expenses to pay for gas
4) Drive a little less
5) Drive a lot less
6) Seek out alternative motorized means of transportation
7) Walk more
8) Bike more

For me, number 8 is 3, and number 3 is 5th with 4 and 5 moving up....but that was just me.


People who can afford to drive to work now will likely to afford it even if gas hits $6, after that, who knows. But gas price increase causes mass transit fares to go up and that can push many people to ride bikes. All cost of living will go up to as gas prices increase.

More importantly, it causes food prices to go up.


Not really unless we hit prices like Europe has. But we are so engrained in having a car and driving so it will be a hard thing to shake out. Look at the fact that we STILL use gas. With technology, we could have had a better energy fuel a while ago but we didnt. Why? Because we keep buying gas and selling cars.

For me, my RT is 22 miles. I save some on gas but I do it because I love it and I do not need to find itme for the gym and be indoors all the time. I love it. I love saving money too. he he he

I rode the elevator with someone who said they were to tired to go to the gym that day and how I found the time and energy to ride to work. I just said I made it work.


One big hurdle is that most people have adapted their lifestyles to the automobile -- that is, where they live, work and how they commute. Many workers commute ridiculously long distances in their cars in the US. They complain about gas prices because it is a big part of their budget, but it is also their choice (which they conveniently forget or ignore). It is not unusual where I live (and I assume this is similar for most US cities) for people to live 15, 20, 30 and even 50 miles or more from their workplace. I live about 15 miles away, and I my commute distance is actually relatively short compared to many of my coworkers. Even for a serious cyclist, bike commuting 10-15 miles each way is quite a step to take. For someone who doesn't currently cycle or does so only occasionally, it is a huge hurdle that is perceived as an impossibility.

Transit is a similar issue for many people. We have buses here but no train system for commuters. Bus routes are very limited, so it would take me about 90 minutes each way to commute by bus -- much longer than it takes to ride my bike.

I used to be a 30 mile commuter or so, but that was so my wife's daughter wasn't taken from her friends and area she grew up in as she was in high school. Once she decided to live with her dad, we moved closer to where we worked (we worked in same area) and my commute is less than 10 miles. The only time I drive now is when one of my boys is sick, today and yesterday I easily used 2+ gallons just going to work and picking one up at school. I need to check my trailer, I think it might be time to start taking that to Target and Ralph's when I know I'm not getting a lot of stuff.

The shop I worked in back in 2008 saw a big jump in sales, close to a record year. The shop I am in currently said they also saw a huge jump in sales so at the very least, people were buying more bikes.

If they were using them is a different story

Yes, price is just one more excuse to ride my bike to work. My jeep gets about 14mph and that is amazingly it is about that far to work. So I save a gallon of gas each way.
You should look into getting a faster jeep.

If I didn't work 50mi from home, I would be riding every chance I got regardless of how much gas cost.

For me, high gas prices were certainly a factor. I started about 3 years ago when gas prices in L.A. were pushing $5. That plus the extra 35 lbs I was carrying were the 2 main reasons.

Yes, it does. Back in 2008 when gas prices went above $4, we had a lot of people come into the shop looking for bikes to commute. While a lot of businesses were having trouble, we were having record breaking months. When prices went down, we didn't get nearly as many people coming in looking for a bike and accessories to commute to work or shopping.

Of the people in that first wave (2008), I wonder how many still bike commute. I was in that 2008 wave of bike commuters. To this day I still bikemute 4 days a week year round.

No.

I wouldn't want to ride more than an hour one way and once you figure in traffic lights that gets you to about a 15 mile commute. Assuming a car that gets only 15 miles per gallon (I get 17 the way I drive) that's two gallons round trip. An extra buck a gallon is $2 a day, two dollars more $4, three dollars more (double) $6 which is in line with a latte.

iUsing your 15 mpg/15 mile commutte I think you need to look at it as:

Gas at $3 a gal, x 2 = 6.00 daily 30.00 weekly 120 monthly
Gas at $4 a gal, x 2 = 8.00 daily 40.00 weekly 160 monthly
Gas at $5 a gal x2 = 10.00 daily 50.weekly 200 monthly

the total cost goes up...... so some people will start commuting base on cost. What is the tipping point? Have no idea but I think $5 a gallon will likely be one.