dailycommute

This is more my take in last few years. Have sold 5 lately (and looking at solds on ebay), believe it also to be a buyers market for sellers who really need to sell-- at least lately. Had to take some firm but value sells but also picked up what seemed like a no brainer buy (famous last words!) from a collector liquidating. Also agree with wrk101 that like antiques once a top is in the decline can grind down for years. There is so much overpriced inventory everywhere but maybe that is just nature of the beast.

leftthread

To me, no. Real CL bargains are few due to factors that others have mentioned. The outliers in value are quickly gone.
That seems to leave your basic garage sale as the most likely spot to find something that's undervalued.
Some examples of the local CL bargains I've seen scooped and flipped:

This Ross Hi-Tech Mt. Hood was a $60 bike on Chicago CL a few weeks ago. Now $299.

This Miyata 921 with 600 was a $100 bike on Rockford CL a few weeks ago. Now $539.

This Trek 1220 was a $120 bike on Milwaukee CL a few weeks ago. Sold best offer, under $409.

This Trek 420 was a $99 St. Vinnie's thrift bike in Greenfield. Now $225.

Great for the seller if they can get their prices. Great for the buyer if they get bike in the condition/price they want.
Just makes it a bit harder for a "collector" to find something.

crank_addict

I should mention, can still see the same CL postings going on for two years. Those sellers obviously don't care when it sells and simply waiting for a sucker, plus its zero cost listings. So then, another seller of a similar bike sees that listing and assumes that's market. Funny stuff.

Another place for deals is sometimes from a pawn shop. Disregard their asking price, as most of them don't follow the real market anyways. TELL them its another old bike and look how nice those shining new Schwinns sell for at Target and Wallymart. Really LOW ball them and wave the cash, now or forget it. Majority of the time they roll over... but do get that sales receipt with documented serial number.

rootboy 

Depends. I think.
On the bike.
The good stuff generally isn't cheap anymore.

OldsCOOL

One bike out of a thousand on our CL will be that gem. Last week I posted a Nishiki Prestige with the goodies for IIRC 150.00 or less? Schwinn Varsitonnage can and will top at 250.00.

miamijim

Thankfully I'm not a fast typer otherwise I'd crank out 50,000 words on this.

In my opinion there are 2 types of bikes, those with Campagnolo Record and everything else. In real estate its location, location, location. In bikes it's Campy Record, Campy Record, Campy Record.

So lets talk about Record bikes/components....

Components: (For the intent of this discussion I'm talking about parts in 9/10 condition or better) Older pre 8 speed parts and C Record are going up, up, up. Sort of. In previous years a complete Super Record group as pictured in the catalog would go for about $1,000, this year i'm find the them to go for anout $800 or a 20% decrease. But the same isnt holding true for parted out groups, in previous years a parted out group might go for $1,100, this year I'm, seeing parted out prices in the $1,300 range. In previous years i'd looking at an extra $100-200 if I parted a group out, thats not worth my time or effort so i'd sell the groups complete and ship them for free in a single USPs large flat rate box. This year there's almost a $400 difference between a complete group and parted group...that's well worth my time and effort. Free shipping costs me more but thtat's price into my part.

Bikes: (For the intent of this discussion I'm talking about bikes in 9/10 condition or better) Italian, Italian, Italian. Thats about where it's at. I'd a conversation with Shoota about this and it was fairly basic. A beat to crap Italian frame from well know maker with bring more money than frame in very good condition from a lesser know maker. A good example of this are the TSD/Gita frames. A beat to death Colnago, DeRosa, Merckx (not Italian) and Pinarello will fetch more Money than a 9/10 Giordana, LeMond, Geurciotti or Basso. TSD/Gita frames are very nice framesets that are well built but at the end of the day they're not in the same league as the big boys. Paramounts are an outlier, American built and the right frames do well, not big boy Italian well but better than the TSD/Gita frames.


That all being said, are bikes and parts a bargain? Yes...if you willing to accept something less than 9/10. There's a precipitous drop in prices once you hit the mid level condition items. A Super Record rear derailleur in 9/10 might fetch $175, that same derailleur in 6/10 might be $75....still functional but cosmeticly challenged.

But what about finding bikes on the cheap in the wild? Unfortunately guys without real jobs sit around all day monitoring CL and Ebay for bikes to flip. these guys have Google alerts set up for key words and scoop up everything quick. Cheap bikes are out there, they just get picked up before and end user can get to them.

In a certain sense steel bikes are more cheap than they were 5 years ago during the hipster fixxie/ss boom. Back then I'd pay $75-100 for lugged bike, strip the gears, convert it to a SS and flip it for a quick $100 profit. in 2015 I wont give those bike a second look as they have no value.

So where's the bottom? Somewhere between 1995 and the mid 2000's. Anything 9s is a financial death sentence. Bonded anything is a financial death sentence. A few years ago I bought a 2009 trek Madone 6.9 Pro with Dura Ace Di2 off ebay for $2,300 shipped. MSRP on that bike with tax was a staggering $11,000!!! Over in the appraisal section I always say to pay no more than 20% of MSRP for anything from that time period and there's a reason!!! That's all they're worth!!

Subsets:

Mountain bikes: Death sentence. A few specialty bikes are going up but as a whole they're not worth much. Keep in mind that from the late 80's onward 85% plus of all bikes sold were NOT road bikes. They're exceptionaly plentifull. Look at my Paramount mtb over in the for sale section...$275 shipped for an XT equipted bike with Tange Prestige tubing? And it's not selling $225 on my local CL!!!

BMX bikes: Early, early stuff is still bringing big money. Think 70's through '83/4.

armstrong101

That's right. So I don't think miamijim is disagreeing with me. My position is a top-tier Italian make (look at my bikes owned in my avatar. TOP TIER.), in good condition, with Campy, is a 1500 bike in 10 years. I didn't say all bikes. How much do you think an entry level bike will cost at a retail store in 10 years?

cyclotoine

what kind of entry level bike? My guess is they will cost as they do now and did back in the 1970s, a similar price proportionate with the mean level of income in the country. Maybe the mean level of income has dropped, but the price of an entry level bike has not come down with it? The reality is, that before the 1980s, a department store bike was better than it is today.

cyclotoine

You could part out the XT for more than that and throw away the frame. The is a critical mass of guys who got into MTBs in the late 1980s and early 1990s wanting to acquire and rebuild their dream bikes (visit retrobike lately?). Any boutique MTB stuff makes campy prices look like pocket change. Scwinns are cool, but american and did not have the following by the time MTBs rose to popularity. Rocky mountains, Kleins, fat chance, salsa, ritchey, breezer, bontrager, GT, and on and on have followings for the higher end stuff and it is starting to bring good money.

I think road bike prices have gone down while MTB have gone up.

armstrong101

I'm talking about a entry level race bike at a bike store. The comparisons in this thread have been about either getting a brand new bike at an LBS for 1000, or getting a used bike that was once top of the market for less, and which of the two are a better value. I wasn't talking about department store bikes, and I don't think anyone here was talking about that either.

miamijim

I'm with you it's that I think there's overwhelmingly high number of old MTB's out there which will keep prices down. I just did a quick ebay search for Deore XT prices....it seems like it's mostly shift levers that bring big money.

A few years back I was fortunate enough to acquire a mint Klein and resold it for what I though was a ridiculous amount of money....buyers are out there but they're very particular. I wouldn't call Tampa a hot bed of mtb



I'm not buying into it all that much. I'm a Corvette guy so let's use them as an example. A new C7Z is going to set you back $85K....that price isn't propping up the price of the C5Z or C6Z. The C5Z aren't holding out for $50K because a C7Z is $85K. Demand for the C5Z hasn't gone up....

mstateglfr 

Well if an entry level road bike is $600ish at a bike shop right now, I would guess it will be $900 in 10 years.

mstateglfr 

That exact bike was on the Rockford CL for $100?
While $539 is too rich for my blood, $100 is just stupidly low.
I bought an '87 912 last fall in the Chicago burbs for right between those prices. it had been converted to 16 speed, but was original otherwise and all 600. It was that same size- 63cm. I cant imagine such a bike being listed for $100 or for $539.

If that's the exact same bike, a question of mine has finally been answered- how that guy in Round Lake picks up so many 80' Japanese road bikes. I figured he had some magical channel for funneling them to him.

armstrong101

I don't understand why you have to use a corvette analogy. Can you use actual bikes to make your example? It seems your argument is that a sale of a Colnago Arabesque doesn't move the price of a Colnago Rapid. If so, I don't think you understand what I'm saying, as I didn't say any such thing or anything close to it. I'm talking Italian Italian Italian (to use your words).

I've met 5 high volume collectors (i.e. >100 bikes). 4 of them are in their mid 30s or younger. One of them, Cam, in Toronto - has like a 1000 bikes, and he's like 27. His friends are probably around 27 also.

My Little Bike Shop

I know university students in their 20s and they are crazy for vintage steel. They can't wait till they get real money to buy bikes that they can't afford now. Literally, people into bikes, doing repairs for friends, being the "bike guy" at their campus, and waiting for money to buy their dream bikes. At some point, they may want "one of each" i.e. a Pina in the stable, a Colnago, a Bianchi, a Cinelli. Like you said, Italian Italian Italian. I think an original mid-level bike with Campy will cost 1500 in 10 years in a top tier brand. The buyers will be there, it's not like comic books where all collectors are greying in their 40s and 50s. All ages of people ride bikes, and they like Italian Italian Italian.

So I'm saying some guy wanting to get a nice bike for himself, in 10 years, if he wants to get himself a nice 1980s Italian bike from one of the top brands, it'll cost about 1500 for an original one in good condition. You think it'll be cheaper? I personally don't think so.

dailycommute

Trying to predict movement of any asset class is impossible, but certainly many opine all day about such movements. Italian may the the in for vintage steel but really bubbles always needs specific examples to hold up. I would say from a historical perspective 100 years out, the late 20th and early 21st centuries will be viewed as the era of bubbles, regardless of class. Basically the small markets mirror our overall economy, a bubblelicious mess where oversupply/deflation are stuffed under the rug of money printing (sorry, quantitative easing).

leftthread

Original listing title and url: "Miyata 26" bike" https://rockford.craigslist.org/bik/4999396537.html
"rockford.craigslist.org › for sale › bicycles - by ownerCraigslist Inc.
Apr 27, 2015 - Miyata ninetwelve 26 mens/womans bike. Im not sure of age except its a older bike & collectable. I believe its ... post id: 4999396537"

randyjawa 

Cheap vintage bicycles? I bet, although I will not actually do so, that I could print up 200 flyers, deliver them tomorrow morning, door to door, and before I get home, my cell phone will be ringing. The Flyer method has never failed to produce vintage bicycles, for me. The nicest of which had to be a seventies something Super Mondia for less than the cost of a box of beer...



I might add that dozens of people have email me, through my website, thanking me for the idea. One fellow, actually goes to parking lots on weekends, slips his flyer under the window wipers of the cars there and sits back. He has reported several bicycles in one day, from a single lot.

Are vintage bicycle cheap? Yup, but you gotta go hunting. Clicking, unless you get lucky, is already too late, if there is a guy like me around.

armstrong101

To use your analogy, a nice looking 80s Pina/Colnago/Bianchi/Cinelli may just be the C7Z you refer to, while a Nishiki/Raleigh/Olmo might be the C5Z, at least to most of the non-hardcore folks interested in looking at this stuff. Not everyone has the means to buy the Montello SLX or Master X Light. Perhaps a nice chromed Pina Veneto or celeste Bianchi is all they need to satisfy their dreams. So you're right - sales of Pinarellos won't really affect sales of non-Paramount Schwinns. It's all relative where you set the bar.

70sSanO

Mountain bikes may be a little different depending on rigid or suspension and how it is going to be used. If a person is looking for a particular early steel rigid, I can see how someone may be willing to pay what they have to for a good example with the original a 1" steerer fork.

However, if it is an early 90's with a typical crappy suspension fork and the person wants to actually ride it on trails that may be different. Especially if it has a 1" steerer and that person wants to keep it with front suspension. It makes for a tough build.

And just like road bikes, double/triple butted steel frames are the ones in demand and bonded aluminum/composite mountain bike frames are even less desirable.

John

gomango

Big value here for sure.

I just picked up a 1996 Yeti in Duluth last weekend for peanuts.

Nice mix of XT/XTR and full of cobwebs.

The Rockshox SID Race fork is even fine. I'm throwing on some new tires, brake pads and cables and I have a rocket ship for $250.

Heck, I've spent more on a new Campy crank, so these mtbs are a real deal.

miamijim

I dont have a crystal ball so I cant say if they'll be cheaper now or not. Trends come and go....do you actually think the 'lugged steel' trend will be trendy in 10 years? If your answer is yes, then go for it, scoop up everyone you can and retire early.

What I can tell you is that the last lugged steel trend, when it ended, led to a dramatic fall in prices.

miamijim

My bar is sky high......

armstrong101

You don't need a crystal ball. You just need to look at demographics. I've frequented other forums where demographics is a constant discussion - who's going to buy our typewriters? Who's going to buy our sewing machines? That concern simply doesn't exist with bicycles. In fact, if you look at the age of many enthusiastic collectors (in their 20s), I'd say demographics point to a potential increase in interest in these bikes. Second, the "last" time lugged steel crashed, it wasn't a trend. "ALL" road bikes were lugged, so it wasn't a fad. Is it a fad now? Well, I'm not going back to modern bikes - and it helps, A LOT, that 80s bikes can be outfitted with modern componentry. So they aren't obsolete. And again - the hipster bike to own is a 1980s Bianchi. Say in 20 years when a 25 year old hipster is now 45, he may either still retain his Bianchi, or may look to get another one since he gave his up. It's possible. You can't say that about a typewriter collecter as he'll be dead.

That's where I'd be less certain about the future. If you're referring to 1950s Legnanos and the like, I don't have any particular understanding or interest for pre 1980s stuff, much less pre 1970s. Bikes from the 1960s in the thousands of dollars - I'm not too sure who'll be buying those as I'm not too certain folks into 1980s stuff necessarily looks at "antique" stuff.

jet sanchEz

I can't see a Bianchi with Victory ever being valued at $1500, not in ten years, not in fifty years, they are very common. Even the uncommon vintage stuff has a tough time breaking that $1500 mark, even in Toronto.

72Paramount

Campagnolo nuovo, super, and C record are where it's at. I have seen prices fall way off for mid-range bikes. In my area 100 for vintage Japanese and French models is common. Middle of the heard bikes go for 2-300, and top tier models start at 1000 and go into the mid to high 3k range. When I say top tier it's columbus tubing/reynolds531 and a full record group.