Vonruden

I could care less, I'm not in it for a profit or 2nd job. For me, I love the asthetics, the ride, the look and feel of a fine crafted Steel bike. I hope prices drop so I can grab some out of price range grails...end of beer induced rant

iab

I've seen this with a lot of makes. When the nostalgia owners get cash (50+), prices spike. When nostalgia owners die off, prices drop. If it is truly a classic, the prices will spike again.

But while there are similarities between cars and bikes, the bikes hold a much smaller market size. I think the peaks of today will be the peaks of tomorrow. Car peaks will continue to grow.

Or, my crystal ball sucks. Can anyone help a brother out with some Lotto numbers?

PeregrineA1 

I fear not for our future. At least based on my limited survey....

We have recent college grads, of the non-hipster variety, and many of their friends through the house on a regular basis and they, for the most part, take more than a passing interest in our old bikes. Each of our kids got a C&V bike as a Xmas present when they went college. I figured we would be lucky if either back made it out the other side. Both did and the are treasured possessions.

We gifted a former employee of mine, started out as illegal alien laborer now on the path to citizenship and field supervisor, a recent model mountain bike a few years ago. He has taken that bike as a launch pad-getting his buddies involved. They have a dozens strong group of riders now. He has also fallen hard for C&V, as have several of his compadres. And not for junk, they are beating me to the good stuff on CL....

Our bike co-op is in the barrio and at the swaps, the Hispanic and Asian folks really go after the good C&V parts and frames. Many good conversations.

So, from my perspective the future is bright, though the demographic may be shifting.

Dave Cutter

I have also lost faith in my crystal ball. The big problem with bikes are there numbers. So many bikes.... compared to the number of collectors. But the interest/attraction is there. And bicycles require much less space than cars.... a basement can display a pretty impressive collection.

armstrong101

How do you explain that lots of young folks want and buy a steel Bianchi Pista as their every day rider? Sure it's not vintage, but it's steel. Or are you saying younger generations will buy modern steel, but not vintage steel, for almost 10X the cost?

And where does them not choosing aluminum or carbon fit into your theory?

armstrong101

This is largely my experience too. Young folks getting a cool bike, and then their friends wanting one too.

Comparing this hobby to other "dying" collectibles, vintage steel is on much more sound footing.

AlmostTrick

Agreed, but the "returning to one's childhood" has been a large factor in increased demand... and therefore pricing.

Rarity does not guarantee high demand.

There has been some discussion about youngsters being more likely to use bikes for commuting. Sure, they'll buy a vintage MTB or low end road bike (maybe to convert into a single speed or fixie) for $100 and ride it if it's the best low cost option. Is this the "Future of C&V" the OP was asking about? I didn't think so.

The darling bikes of the C&V forum are the middle and high end road bikes. The higher dollar bikes that most here have and crave. These are the bikes that comprise the bulk of the banter around here, so these are the bikes (in my mind) that are being referenced when the OP asked about the future of C&V.

Youngsters wanting to commute aren't likely to look to these bikes as viable options. Young racers and racer wannabe's won't either. Spend a little time in the commuting and road bike forums and you will see this is true. If the fancy C&V road bikes are not sought after by the younger generations now, why would this change in the future?

Who's not choosing aluminum or carbon? That's practically all you'll find in today's shops, so it must be what "they" are choosing. Even when a modern steel bike is bought, what does that have to do with C&V bikes?

armstrong101

What would you define as the ultimate commuter bike? I'm suggesting one in the attachment. I'm going to make the hypothesis that "only" young people are buying that bike. If young folks didn't want steel bikes, then why on earth would a single one of those Bianchi Pistas be bought by anyone? The bike is frikkin expensive. Anyone buying it must want it really badly to lay down that type of coin.

As well - how you define "Darling" mid and high end is different from how someone else defines it. Perhaps your "high end" is Columbus SL, full CR in pristine condition from a top-3 manufacturer. Perhaps for some guy riding a Walmart bike to work, ANY Italian celeste Bianchi is high end to him. And who's to argue against that? A $500 vintage Bianchi CDI certainly classifies as C&V, just as much as a $1500 Specialissima does. And the $500 CDI is most certainly a viable commuting option.

armstrong101

How many high-volume VINTAGE bike collectors do you know? I've personally met 5 in 2 different countries. High volume meaning >100 bikes or > tens of thousands of dollars of bike value. 4 of them are 35 or younger.

armstrong101

In Toronto, everyone knows Cam. He probably has 1000 bikes. The guy is maybe 30. He's too young to have grown up with this stuff. So why in the hell is he interested in this stuff? I'm sure he has lots of friends into bikes too, and they are probably all around his age.

My Little Bike Shop

armstrong101

Here's another guy I met. Top 3 C&V bike collection in Taiwan, which mean something since they are the bike manufacturing capital of the world. Don't know how old he is, but I'm certain he's under 35. His best friend in Taipei (has 400 bikes, mostly all high end), is his age too.

https://www.facebook.com/SMbike.tw/

These people shouldn't exist if you go by your logic, but they do. So maybe your logic is wrong.

CliffordK

I've never been big on collecting stuff merely for show. I like old tools, as long as I can actually use them. Same for bikes. I want bicycles that I can ride.

And, while I do put on a few open highway miles, a lot of my miles are commuter miles.

I have no problem with someone choosing to commute on a classic, whether it is kept original, or upgraded to suit their needs.

armstrong101

I'll mention that whatever these folks are "choosing" at the bike store, that given the SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY, they'd probably choose to take home a Bianchi Pista instead. So things being equal, they take the Bianchi over the aluminum commuter.

And what does it have to do with C&V? Easy. Someone buying a new Bianchi Pista can get an original for about 10% the cost. Some people will opt for that option. So yes, the new bike creates a market for the old one.

Chombi

What worries me too is the negative effect that all the recent chemical, blood and mechanical doping scandals are having on the public's perception of the sport. As it could lessen the number of potential future devoted cyclists that could eventually carry on the C&V movement in the future, because they might be discouraged to participate in a sport that most of the public might consider as "sleazy" at the highest levels.
The cyclocrosser recently caught for mechanical doping takes the cake for me. Just utterly stupid and disgusting!

AlmostTrick

Does the general public even know/care about this stuff? I don't even know what "mechanical doping" is. Even if they do, would they associate it with anyone they know who is into bikes? I kinda doubt it.

@armstrong101 Do you think demand for C&V bikes will go up?

All I'm saying is my crystal ball says it is likely to slowly decline, as it seems to me it has been doing. At least for the fancier ones. There will always be a market for low cost working bikes. Maybe others more in the know see it differently.

Chombi

After Armstrong, YES, the general public knows and cares about this stuff.
Heck, even Oprah had him in her show asking him about the allegations which he actually admitted to her.
The recent mechanical doping scandal was posted all over the net like in Yahoo news.
A lot of my cycling friends and relatives already quit watching the TDF and other big pro races every year because they feel sick about how America's greatest racer betrayed them so now they look at every one of them in the Pelton with suspicion......
Yup! Lance sure stuck a big dagger in the heart of the sport, and the effects to the sport and hobby will linger for many years to come. Notice that even the coverage of the TDF, at least in the US, had been very limited since the big scandal?
Bad thing is the media and public do not follow race results anymore, just the almost regular news of doping scandals and related lawsuits........

AlmostTrick

No, I haven't noticed, which is why I asked. I don't pay any attention to cycle racing and it seems most people I know don't either. I've only had one other person mention anything about it to me, and he used to be a cyclist.

C&V bike riding/restoring/collecting seem far removed from professional bicycle racing to me.

cyclotoine

I don't think it will. I think cycling is one the rise still in America, even if pro racing popularity has taken a hit.

frantik

That Hard Rock will never be a collectors item, but high end rigid mtbs fetch a pretty penny these days...

gomango

We rode after work today down at the river.

I rode my ECR.

Every single bike there was a fat tire of one flavor or another.

Most of the riders were 18-30 years old.

That's the next gen of c+v in these parts. Imho

iab

Makes no difference.

There is no doubt there is rampant doping in all professional sports. Cycling takes it seriously. Football (both types), baseball, basketball, hockey, etc doesn't. Of course Manning is taking hgh, along with dozens of things that will get you a 2-year UCI ban.

But we don't care. We want spectacular entertainment and don't care how we get it. Sure, we point out fingers at cycling, saying how "evil" Armstrong was. That's easy because we don't care about cycling. With the protections of unions, I doubt the "real" sports will have a scandal anytime soon and that makes us feel good about "real" sports. We can enjoy the entertainment and make believe there is no cheating.

armstrong101

I sell a lot of bike stuff locally for a hobbyist (over 100 bike related items/year). I've moved a couple prestige brand C&V frames in the last year.

1. A Pinarello Asolo frameset last year sold for 325 to two brothers (they must've saved up for it). The older of the two was 17 or so, the younger was the bike mechanic guy, and he seemed like he was 13. They were really young. I asked why they were buying the bike (cause IMO, it wasn't a good deal at all), and the older guy said he just wanted a vintage steel Pinarello that he was going to ride every day.
2. Two weeks ago, I sold a 49 cm celeste Bianchi CDI original build for 600 to some Asian chick. She seemed 25 tops, probably a lot younger. She apparently didn't have a bike at the time and this was going to be her main ride.
3. Last summer, I sold a 54 cm celeste Bianchi CDI frameset to a UofT master's student who does bike repair for 200. He has turned it into a fixie for his girlfriend. She apparently loves it.
4. Just last week, I sold a rear wheel to some young guy. He was like 20 maybe. His bike was a steel Bertrand he bought from Cam's (above).

Can't remember too many other steel bike sales of "high end" steel, but come to think of it, I think every single one I have ever sold has been bought by someone younger than me (I'm in my 30's). And if you look at the prices I quoted above, they aren't getting them "at a great deal". So there are young people who are paying for these things.

Important point to mention. How much disposal income are young people supposed to have? I certainly didn't have 500 laying around just to buy a prestige bike before getting my first real income. The only person I know who bought a modern Bianchi pista frame brand new from the store, was some teenager guy who's dad spent $1000 to buy him one. Lots of young folks who come by to buy bike stuff, almost inevitably get wowed by my steel bike collection. These are people who are impressed with these bikes but who don't have the money to buy one.

Another important point. These 1980s frames can take on all modern componentry. So when you go on a club ride, and all those other riders are riding their GianTrekCervelized carbaluminum bike, while you're on a neat 1988 Superleggera decked out with 11-speed Ultegra, you'll have the coolest bike in the crowd. And yeah, people want their bikes to stand out, and getting a prestige steel bike is one way to do it.

armstrong101

Yes I don't think we're at the top. I've explained my reasoning in various places both in this thread, and the 2014 and 2015 threads I linked to earlier. My rationale for my opinion is twofold and is based on (1) my experience observing other collectible markets that don't have as favorable demographic trends as there exists in this hobby and (2) the demographic trends in this hobby which has created a new generation of folks interested in the same stuff as those of the previous generation (i.e. bike riders in the 1980s are interested in 1980s bikes, and a population of today's young people are also interested in 1980s bikes). This is an incredible convergence of interests that other dying hobbies would kill for.

crank_addict

Who would've guessed? SRAM and Specialized work together for the World Bicycle Relief. The supa techy carbon fib Tarmac is sporting vintage style tan sidewall rubber! Vintage is cool on modern

Edit: If curious, the clincher's are 24mm width. Narrow rubber lives on.

Specialized items in Auction Cause store on eBay!