The future of C&V
02-10-16, 05:26 AM
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Most of the old guys I ride with have stopped buying classic and are really getting into gravel, mtb and all road bikes.
Small sample size, but I see the vintage market contracting in the years ahead.
My kids and their friends don't seem to care about vintage "cool" factors like we might. They see the bike as a tool to fill a need.
When they talk about cool, the discussion routinely heads towards tricked out scooters like a modded Honda Ruckus.
Their friends on the high school mtb team wouldn't look twice at my old racing bikes.
No utility for them.
Small sample size, but I see the vintage market contracting in the years ahead.
My kids and their friends don't seem to care about vintage "cool" factors like we might. They see the bike as a tool to fill a need.
When they talk about cool, the discussion routinely heads towards tricked out scooters like a modded Honda Ruckus.
Their friends on the high school mtb team wouldn't look twice at my old racing bikes.
No utility for them.
02-10-16, 06:33 AM
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Built him a single-speed Comp TA. He lives in the mountains, traded it for a single-speed fattie conversion. I think he's turning a 26 front and a spaced 32 rear, freehubbing, discs front and rear. His Jack Russell can easily keep up. The fatties are not as popular in the mountains due to their weight, so there are used ones out there with no buyers.
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02-10-16, 07:02 AM
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Developing an appreciation for C&V road bikes among younger riders is a matter of getting out, socializing, and riding the C&V bikes with the younger crowd. Anyone under 35 probably hasn't been part of the vintage steel scene in any appreciable way, and since they get their opinions from bike shops and others their age, it's easy to understand why they think steel isn't so real (mainly because they've never had the need or want to try it). When an old guy rides with their club and grins ear to ear when asked about the ride of their steely, that's when intrigue develops. Even with that, the market is likely shrinking. So is the field of nice bikes though (the 70's garage queens have mostly been discovered as grandpa goes to the home).
02-10-16, 08:21 AM
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+1
Glad you chimed in Gomango, always good points. This brings trends and age categories to the front.
Fixed seemed based on a cheap conversion that was done by utilizing an older bike and making it simple but unique. Cheap commuter, not really long distance. Gravel has picked up a lot of speed. In AZ we probably have more canal paths than most places as water comes from AZ central project and the Colorado river. Literally hundreds of miles throughout the Phoenix area. This will be growing but can also be a fairly mild conversion, although vintage prices are higher now so it will probably fall toward mountain bikes as mentioned.
Not a large percentage of younger people can afford to or want to put all their money into an expensive bike unless they are hardcore or racing. Middle? age like me
at 45 are the buyers of the high end stuff for the most part, old or new. Some of the older guys (60's-70+?)I know are starting to thin the herd as they slow down. There may be a slight uptick of nice bikes hitting the market due to this. And they won't be cheap as they know what they have.
I don't know how the business is doing, but State Bicycle (fixed), Sikk (cruiser type) are from here and in Tempe near ASU, they cater mostly to college kids so they still seem popular. I met one of the owners brothers at a local brewery a few months ago, they were just putting out a retro lugged version that was at or near the top of their current line up so that was interesting. I imagine they both may offer a gravel bike if they don't already.
Most of the old guys I ride with have stopped buying classic and are really getting into gravel, mtb and all road bikes.
Small sample size, but I see the vintage market contracting in the years ahead.
My kids and their friends don't seem to care about vintage "cool" factors like we might. They see the bike as a tool to fill a need.
When they talk about cool, the discussion routinely heads towards tricked out scooters like a modded Honda Ruckus.
Their friends on the high school mtb team wouldn't look twice at my old racing bikes.
Small sample size, but I see the vintage market contracting in the years ahead.
My kids and their friends don't seem to care about vintage "cool" factors like we might. They see the bike as a tool to fill a need.
When they talk about cool, the discussion routinely heads towards tricked out scooters like a modded Honda Ruckus.
Their friends on the high school mtb team wouldn't look twice at my old racing bikes.
Fixed seemed based on a cheap conversion that was done by utilizing an older bike and making it simple but unique. Cheap commuter, not really long distance. Gravel has picked up a lot of speed. In AZ we probably have more canal paths than most places as water comes from AZ central project and the Colorado river. Literally hundreds of miles throughout the Phoenix area. This will be growing but can also be a fairly mild conversion, although vintage prices are higher now so it will probably fall toward mountain bikes as mentioned.
Not a large percentage of younger people can afford to or want to put all their money into an expensive bike unless they are hardcore or racing. Middle? age like me
at 45 are the buyers of the high end stuff for the most part, old or new. Some of the older guys (60's-70+?)I know are starting to thin the herd as they slow down. There may be a slight uptick of nice bikes hitting the market due to this. And they won't be cheap as they know what they have.I don't know how the business is doing, but State Bicycle (fixed), Sikk (cruiser type) are from here and in Tempe near ASU, they cater mostly to college kids so they still seem popular. I met one of the owners brothers at a local brewery a few months ago, they were just putting out a retro lugged version that was at or near the top of their current line up so that was interesting. I imagine they both may offer a gravel bike if they don't already.
02-10-16, 09:31 AM
#56
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My son is a good example. (don't quote me on that, for any more than this context)....
He considers the idea of a "grail bike" to be materialistic, but balanced by the fact it's not in a landfill.
He thinks people who buy high-tech carbon bikes are stupid unless they are using it as a tool in their job.
He considers C&V to be well-built and pragmatic bikes that do pretty much what new bikes can do, without wasting the planet, money, time, or energy.
He thinks fixed gear is good because it uses less parts, is easy, simple, and pragmatic.
He think the appreciation for the craftsmanship is fine, but as an art object, he finds a bike absurd.
His idea of a good bike is one that gets you where you need to go, safely, and without cost.
His present ride is a fat-tire single-speed so he can ride it year round and his dog can keep up.
He sees dumpsters as dangers to the earth, is OK with steel bikes if they can be recycled.
He wouldn't be caught dead in bike kit. In an urban setting, he prefers a skateboard.
I used to think he was one of those odd tree-hugging kids. Turns out there are millions. Good for them.
He considers the idea of a "grail bike" to be materialistic, but balanced by the fact it's not in a landfill.
He thinks people who buy high-tech carbon bikes are stupid unless they are using it as a tool in their job.
He considers C&V to be well-built and pragmatic bikes that do pretty much what new bikes can do, without wasting the planet, money, time, or energy.
He thinks fixed gear is good because it uses less parts, is easy, simple, and pragmatic.
He think the appreciation for the craftsmanship is fine, but as an art object, he finds a bike absurd.
His idea of a good bike is one that gets you where you need to go, safely, and without cost.
His present ride is a fat-tire single-speed so he can ride it year round and his dog can keep up.
He sees dumpsters as dangers to the earth, is OK with steel bikes if they can be recycled.
He wouldn't be caught dead in bike kit. In an urban setting, he prefers a skateboard.
I used to think he was one of those odd tree-hugging kids. Turns out there are millions. Good for them.
02-10-16, 09:42 AM
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A lot of this depends on where you're talking about. In DC and NYC, I'm starting to see Linuses and Globes that are already starting to look pretty C&V, after 5-6 years of hard outdoor use. As urban cycling culture picks up, there won't be too many "garage finds" anymore, because people aren't keeping them in garages. In suburban and rural areas, I don't think much will change.
02-10-16, 11:06 PM
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Thinking of the C&V bikes.
Road Bikes:
Road Bikes:
I bought my old Colnago in 1982 for 300,000 Lira, or about $200 to $300. It probably was similar to $1000 "new" bikes.
If it hadn't been used for the last 30+ years, the value might have gone up a little. But, even in pristine condition, it might only be worth that same $1000 or so. And if it was any other brand, maybe topping out in pristine condition at about $800.
In many senses, that is way under valued. A top of the line new bike is $5000 to $10,000 (or more). Just getting a retro-styled custom steel fame brazed together could easily cost in excess of the value of my "vintage" bike, not including the cost of all the components to go into the build.
Someone asks on the forum about going steel... and no doubt someone will give them the advice to hunt down a top of the line vintage bicycle, or vintage frame for the build.
I can see some of those true classics road bikes becoming rarer, but few are heading to the dump, and we'll still pile on top all of the 90's an 2000's used bikes. Perhaps the only thing to boost vintage bike value will be if we end up with a huge gap in vintage bikes, and loose a generation of carbon fiber and aluminum bikes. We did also have a generation when there was lagging interest in road bikes.
A recent renewed interest (I think) in road bikes may help the classics a bit.
MTBs:If it hadn't been used for the last 30+ years, the value might have gone up a little. But, even in pristine condition, it might only be worth that same $1000 or so. And if it was any other brand, maybe topping out in pristine condition at about $800.
In many senses, that is way under valued. A top of the line new bike is $5000 to $10,000 (or more). Just getting a retro-styled custom steel fame brazed together could easily cost in excess of the value of my "vintage" bike, not including the cost of all the components to go into the build.
Someone asks on the forum about going steel... and no doubt someone will give them the advice to hunt down a top of the line vintage bicycle, or vintage frame for the build.
I can see some of those true classics road bikes becoming rarer, but few are heading to the dump, and we'll still pile on top all of the 90's an 2000's used bikes. Perhaps the only thing to boost vintage bike value will be if we end up with a huge gap in vintage bikes, and loose a generation of carbon fiber and aluminum bikes. We did also have a generation when there was lagging interest in road bikes.
A recent renewed interest (I think) in road bikes may help the classics a bit.
This will be an interesting phenomenon. I know the college campuses were innundated with $1000+ MTBs through the 90's, and I'm still trying to figure which of the junky bikes that are showing up today were those really expensive top of the line college bikes.
Nonetheless, there were so many mediocre MTBs from the 80's and 90's, that I don't see their value as booming. Somewhat like the high-end boutique store Schwinn Varsities from a generation earlier.
No doubt there will be a few classic MTBs, perhaps the Carbon Fiber Trek Y-Series MTBs.
Yet, then the question will be whether they will be desirable for their primary use? Will someone choose to take out their late 90's or early 2000's CF Trek, and go tearing up and down mountains on it?
On the road side, I have no problem taking my nearly 50 year old bike out for a 100+ mile road ride, although it is finally getting a break from riding in the rain.
I suppose one might argue that the primary purpose of MTBs was always as commuters, and the CF Y series bikes would do just fine on the pavement.
Nonetheless, there were so many mediocre MTBs from the 80's and 90's, that I don't see their value as booming. Somewhat like the high-end boutique store Schwinn Varsities from a generation earlier.
No doubt there will be a few classic MTBs, perhaps the Carbon Fiber Trek Y-Series MTBs.
Yet, then the question will be whether they will be desirable for their primary use? Will someone choose to take out their late 90's or early 2000's CF Trek, and go tearing up and down mountains on it?
On the road side, I have no problem taking my nearly 50 year old bike out for a 100+ mile road ride, although it is finally getting a break from riding in the rain.
I suppose one might argue that the primary purpose of MTBs was always as commuters, and the CF Y series bikes would do just fine on the pavement.
02-11-16, 12:57 AM
#59
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I can't predict the future, but I'll put good money on the Y-bikes having a VERY limited collector appeal. Yuck. You can toss in every other URT bike on the crap pile with 'em, but damn, the Y-bike was one of the worst looking versions of a terrible design.
IMO, of course.
IMO, of course.
02-11-16, 05:52 AM
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I think most of you guys are into C&V too deep to see the real world picture. Demand (and prices) for old bikes will continue to drop as time goes on and progressively less of the younger generations have interest in them.
02-11-16, 06:19 AM
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Agree about the big possibility that C&V buke values will never recover to the levels it was at a few years ago.
The economy had vastly improved since then, and we do not see any corresponding improvements on component and whole bike values in the market.
Unless the C&V/Retrobike movement has a big resurgence in the coming years, things would just either remain stagnant or continue to go down, especially as the generations that related to the older bikes slowly get too old to ride or die off.......
All we can hope for now is that many who stashed bikes and components looking for a future windfall reselling them will start putting them on the market for us to buy for reasonable prices.....
The economy had vastly improved since then, and we do not see any corresponding improvements on component and whole bike values in the market.
Unless the C&V/Retrobike movement has a big resurgence in the coming years, things would just either remain stagnant or continue to go down, especially as the generations that related to the older bikes slowly get too old to ride or die off.......
All we can hope for now is that many who stashed bikes and components looking for a future windfall reselling them will start putting them on the market for us to buy for reasonable prices.....
02-11-16, 11:54 AM
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There will always be bike collectors. And the seventies and eighties pretty much changed the world of riding. Not only Road, but Bmx and Mountain, so that should stand the test of time for some special collector items. Not saying all, but a decent amount.
There are antique type special bikes that have some value, but I think not many people go after the sixties or earlier due to the cotter crank, inefficient parts, too heavy (even for steel is real guys :-)) etc. I have seen bikes like Schwinn (sorry guys) boom (ties to history) but that crowd got older and those were either kids bikes, cruisers that you rarely ride, or from what I recall as a kid (again sorry), lower end bikes (Paramount and some road exception). The other thing I noticed is BMX. I rode BMX into my early twenties until family duty called. Being young I thought I would never stop, but I did. I saw the prices of bikes when guys my age started having flash backs and they sky rocketed. I personally could not bring myself to get in on that, as I knew I would not ride. But now, that crowd is thinned due to them being small bikes and I see decent BMX on CL here and there. And they're not 2k and up, but in the hundreds. There will always be some highly sought after, but the collectible ones are thinned to mostly the best of the best.
Anyway that's all I got, my .02 :-) Just my opinion from what I have seen.
Last edited by Bikerider007; 02-11-16 at 12:00 PM. Reason: errors
02-11-16, 12:07 PM
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We're talking apples and oranges. The high end production vintage mtbs from companies like specialized and trek aren't worth much. Some of the b'stones are worth a bit more. Take a top end specialized mtb from the most of the 80s and compare it to a similar specialized road bike or do the same calculation with a trek. Very different prices for road and mtb. Like I said, they're not worth much. Thrifty Bill got it right in post no. 26 above.
High end production bikes roads bikes from Specilized and Trek are not all that crazy valuable either, the top S-works and some of the crazy treks from that period will likely become collectable to some extend, not as much as the pioneers of mountain biking like potts, breezers, ritcheys, bontragers, but then I would argue that those pioneers are a little more akin to the first treks and cannondales (also not particularly valuable). Lots of vintage MTBs are selling for extremely high prices including, Kleins, Yeti, Fat Chance, anything titanium, Kona explosif or hot, rocky mountain thunderbolts and ti-bolts, the list goes on, and components from Paul and precision and other CNC companies are quiet valuable, Tried to buy a first gen syncros stem with noodle lately? The price would make your jaw drop. Got a second gen 29.4 syncros seatpost? $150 no problem. How about any ringle? Some ti holey skewers in 3DV? $100 no problem.
There was a boom in the 1990s of run of the mill mountain bikes and they are relatively worthless but so are all the crap bike boom 10 speeds from the 1970s and mid to low end road bikes from the same period and into the 80s. The phenomenon is no different. In both eras there was high end racing stuff and nice hand built frames and production stuff that was for everyman and doesn't hold the same cache or market value.
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02-11-16, 12:23 PM
#64
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I respectfully disagree.
High end production bikes roads bikes from Specilized and Trek are not all that crazy valuable either, the top S-works and some of the crazy treks from that period will likely become collectable to some extend, not as much as the pioneers of mountain biking like potts, breezers, ritcheys, bontragers, but then I would argue that those pioneers are a little more akin to the first treks and cannondales (also not particularly valuable). Lots of vintage MTBs are selling for extremely high prices including, Kleins, Yeti, Fat Chance, anything titanium, Kona explosif or hot, rocky mountain thunderbolts and ti-bolts, the list goes on, and components from Paul and precision and other CNC companies are quiet valuable, Tried to buy a first gen syncros stem with noodle lately? The price would make your jaw drop. Got a second gen 29.4 syncros seatpost? $150 no problem. How about any ringle? Some ti holey skewers in 3DV? $100 no problem.
There was a boom in the 1990s of run of the mill mountain bikes and they are relatively worthless but so are all the crap bike boom 10 speeds from the 1970s and mid to low end road bikes from the same period and into the 80s. The phenomenon is no different. In both eras there was high end racing stuff and nice hand built frames and production stuff that was for everyman and doesn't hold the same cache or market value.
High end production bikes roads bikes from Specilized and Trek are not all that crazy valuable either, the top S-works and some of the crazy treks from that period will likely become collectable to some extend, not as much as the pioneers of mountain biking like potts, breezers, ritcheys, bontragers, but then I would argue that those pioneers are a little more akin to the first treks and cannondales (also not particularly valuable). Lots of vintage MTBs are selling for extremely high prices including, Kleins, Yeti, Fat Chance, anything titanium, Kona explosif or hot, rocky mountain thunderbolts and ti-bolts, the list goes on, and components from Paul and precision and other CNC companies are quiet valuable, Tried to buy a first gen syncros stem with noodle lately? The price would make your jaw drop. Got a second gen 29.4 syncros seatpost? $150 no problem. How about any ringle? Some ti holey skewers in 3DV? $100 no problem.
There was a boom in the 1990s of run of the mill mountain bikes and they are relatively worthless but so are all the crap bike boom 10 speeds from the 1970s and mid to low end road bikes from the same period and into the 80s. The phenomenon is no different. In both eras there was high end racing stuff and nice hand built frames and production stuff that was for everyman and doesn't hold the same cache or market value.
Or maybe you're saying that top end mtb from a major manufacturer like Trek or Specialized is just run of the mill stuff like the "boom bikes." I've seen Trek 950s/970s and Spec stump jumpers go for not a heck of a lot locally and I think they're really nice made bikes with high quality seamless chrome moly tubing and good quality shimano or sun tour running gear.
Again, I'm not really sure we disagree so much as we're talking about different parts of the market. Some vintage mtbs have become collectible; most have not and that works for me. I'll keep buying the boom era vintage mtbs out there and keep riding the heck out of them,
.These are two of my favorite bikes; I paid $125 for each. One is a 1992 Trek 950; the other a 1988 specialized stump jumper comp that I modded with a drop bar conversion:
02-11-16, 01:42 PM
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I can't predict the future, but I'll put good money on the Y-bikes having a VERY limited collector appeal. Yuck. You can toss in every other URT bike on the crap pile with 'em, but damn, the Y-bike was one of the worst looking versions of a terrible design.
IMO, of course.
IMO, of course.
02-11-16, 02:00 PM
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Not everything it returning to one's childhood.
I'd love to get a Cambio Corsa based bike. If I found the right bike at the right price. And, nope, I didn't have one as a kid
Part of the appeal would be the unique engineering. And, of course the value has to do with the rarity. How many survivors are there? A few hundred? A few thousand? The number of bikes that Trek produces in an hour?
I'd love to get a Cambio Corsa based bike. If I found the right bike at the right price. And, nope, I didn't have one as a kid
Part of the appeal would be the unique engineering. And, of course the value has to do with the rarity. How many survivors are there? A few hundred? A few thousand? The number of bikes that Trek produces in an hour?
02-11-16, 05:04 PM
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Best thing going for C&V with my son's crowd is cost. Pure and simple.
Cost of bikes, cost of parts, cost of tools. Simplicity, not technology.
They also consider public transit and bikes differently than previous generations.
Lowest rate of driver licensing in years. They know the future is not rosy.
An indestructible 5-sp IGH at low cost.
A steel frame with a quill stem.
This would sell.
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02-11-16, 05:26 PM
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I think the technology topped-out about 15 years ago. As for younger riders, I think they'll come around once they get some more years under their belts. I can easily see some huge C&V events in say, 2050, but they will be attended mostly by riders who are in their 40's and on.
I think it would be a bit too much to ask any teen or 20-something to ride anything that isn't hot-off-the-press. The song remains the same.
I think it would be a bit too much to ask any teen or 20-something to ride anything that isn't hot-off-the-press. The song remains the same.
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02-11-16, 05:35 PM
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Are you disagreeing that an 80s era road bike from Trek is worth more than an 80s era mtb? Ditto for specialized, miyata, etc? Because if you are, that is contrary to my experience in buying and selling vintage bikes. Both in buying and selling bikes for myself and in seeing the prices for bikes in the C&V valuation forum, road bikes as a rule go for more than equivalent quality mtbs. To use one example, last year I bought two vintage Treks: a 1984 Trek 610 frame and a complete 1992 Trek 950. Roughly comparable quality bikes and I paid exactly the same for both ($125 each). I think that's FMV for both and the road bike was considerably more expensive since it was just a frame.
Or maybe you're saying that top end mtb from a major manufacturer like Trek or Specialized is just run of the mill stuff like the "boom bikes." I've seen Trek 950s/970s and Spec stump jumpers go for not a heck of a lot locally and I think they're really nice made bikes with high quality seamless chrome moly tubing and good quality shimano or sun tour running gear.
Or maybe you're saying that top end mtb from a major manufacturer like Trek or Specialized is just run of the mill stuff like the "boom bikes." I've seen Trek 950s/970s and Spec stump jumpers go for not a heck of a lot locally and I think they're really nice made bikes with high quality seamless chrome moly tubing and good quality shimano or sun tour running gear.
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02-11-16, 05:37 PM
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I think the technology topped-out about 15 years ago. As for younger riders, I think they'll come around once they get some more years under their belts. I can easily see some huge C&V events in say, 2050, but they will be attended mostly by riders who are in their 40's and on.
I think it would be a bit too much to ask any teen or 20-something to ride anything that isn't hot-off-the-press. The song remains the same.
I think it would be a bit too much to ask any teen or 20-something to ride anything that isn't hot-off-the-press. The song remains the same.
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1 Super Record bike, 1 Nuovo Record bike, 1 Pista, 1 Road, 1 Cyclocross/Allrounder, 1 MTB, 1 Touring, 1 Fixed gear
1 Super Record bike, 1 Nuovo Record bike, 1 Pista, 1 Road, 1 Cyclocross/Allrounder, 1 MTB, 1 Touring, 1 Fixed gear
02-11-16, 06:13 PM
#72
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I think the technology topped-out about 15 years ago. As for younger riders, I think they'll come around once they get some more years under their belts. I can easily see some huge C&V events in say, 2050, but they will be attended mostly by riders who are in their 40's and on.
I think it would be a bit too much to ask any teen or 20-something to ride anything that isn't hot-off-the-press. The song remains the same.
I think it would be a bit too much to ask any teen or 20-something to ride anything that isn't hot-off-the-press. The song remains the same.
Last edited by Bikerider007; 02-11-16 at 06:14 PM. Reason: typicng! haha
02-11-16, 07:58 PM
#73
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Best thing going for C&V with my son's crowd is cost. Pure and simple.
Cost of bikes, cost of parts, cost of tools. Simplicity, not technology.
They also consider public transit and bikes differently than previous generations.
An indestructible 5-sp IGH at low cost.
A steel frame with a quill stem.
This would sell.
Cost of bikes, cost of parts, cost of tools. Simplicity, not technology.
They also consider public transit and bikes differently than previous generations.
An indestructible 5-sp IGH at low cost.
A steel frame with a quill stem.
This would sell.
02-11-16, 08:49 PM
#74
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Bikes: '17 Access Old Turnpike Gravel bike, '14 Trek 1.1, '13 Cannondale CAAD 10, '98 CAD 2, R300
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I remember when model T Fords collectors started dying off. For a while the prices fell on the really old cars.... as the price for the more recent (then 1950's cars) went up.
But after a few years.... the real classic cars (pre-WW2) skyrocketed (as did more recent collectable cars). I expect similar activity with bicycles.
But after a few years.... the real classic cars (pre-WW2) skyrocketed (as did more recent collectable cars). I expect similar activity with bicycles.
02-11-16, 08:58 PM
#75
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I like classic and vintage bikes because they are durable, serviceable, not overly complicated, easy to work on, a good value, and pleasing to the eye. I've been drawn to early-mid 1980s Treks for their build quality and timeless design. Some c&v bikes look dated to me but I still appreciate them. I just prefer the ones that hold up. I also like the Shimano 600, early Deore, and early 105 groupsets. Solid with no frills and easy to tune. I'd like to find a mixte for my fiancée and plan to build cruisers for my recently retired parents. Bridgestones amongst others have caught my attention. Anyone have any they want to relinquish to a caring youngin'? I intend to use them for another 30 years.
My 1985 Trek 620 and 600 are older than I am. They're not 100% original but could be returned to that state. I like to think I've made upgrades that incorporate new technology but maintain the classic aesthetic. Especially since I use them to commute.
My 1985 Trek 620 and 600 are older than I am. They're not 100% original but could be returned to that state. I like to think I've made upgrades that incorporate new technology but maintain the classic aesthetic. Especially since I use them to commute.
Last edited by cwjDC; 02-11-16 at 09:04 PM.