Soma Roark

From my limited knowledge, it seems like the 70s and 80s were the golden age of lugged steel bikes (in terms of an array of low to high end), and then from 90s to now the world has moved on, with a relatively recent resurgence in custom markets and high end production (will it last? I think so). But what does the future hold for the future of CV? In 20-40 years what will you scour CL and eBay for?

Edit: Actually I should say what do you predict will be available and sought after for the CV community at large. And you're immortal.

khatfull

In 40 years? A wheelchair rather than a bicycle maybe. Lugged of course.

Soma Roark

Ok crucial edit: If you were immortal, what would you search for? -_-

RobbieTunes

Early Kestrels.
Some aluminum CAAD's.
Trek 520's, again.
The Y-Foil (already a cult fave)
Bianchi Trofeos

I'm with Keith, a chro-mo lugged wheelchair with ProRace 7's, and an anodized bedpan.

khatfull

Oooh, that's tough...fair bet that Scott Ryder already has 2-3 of the top 5

EDIT: In 40 years....I've always been intrigued by the Cervelo Superprodigy.

tugrul

I don't really keep records of these things, but it feels like STI road bikes from the 1990s rarely show up on craigslist.

I don't know if hybrids wiped out a segment of the drop bar market, or if they are still in use, or if they just haven't hung in the garages long enough.

Once the 1980s entrench themselves as C&V, I'm not sure what there is to move on to.

Soma Roark

Wow I had to google almost all of those... so you think CV will shift away from lugged steel? What about Paul brakes alongside Campy? There was a recent thread on modern lugged steel and I just assumed most would mention those. Hm interesting! Picture below is for khatfull. =)

RJM

I would be looking for some titanium frame stuff personally, seems that the material stands the test of time. I don't think carbon frames will be much sought after, I know I won't be looking for them. I think there are a bunch of really good lugged, tig welded and fillet brazed steel road bikes being produced now that I hope drop in price and owners start unloading them. Seems to be a lot of independent/smaller shops doing custom work and people are buying them. Maybe in 20 years or so those customers will want something different and sell their babies.

sykerocker 

OK, I'll say it: 20-30 years from now, I see more than a few of the carbon fiber bikes becoming classic. First off, it'll take a new generation of collectors, those who don't automatically turn their noses up at the thought of carbon fiber. Those who consider it normal. Which is to say, most 20-somethings that are currently riding modern. Which models? Don't have the slightest idea, as I haven't followed the market. The high end Trek Madone's will probably be a safe bet, however. If anything, they're the 'Paramounts' of this day.

The custom made lugged steel bikes? Of course, that's a no-brainer. Custom made anything becomes classic - if only to justify the insane prices they cost when new.

RobbieTunes

Perhaps with the internet, some lesser-known but high-quality marques may get the exposure to become C&V.
Most of them, I've not heard of outside of NAHBS. Same with Paul brakes.

The "con" side, though is that these don't come at the prices the present C&V bikes went for, as they are not "mainstream" bikes.
I've no clue how that will affect their future status as bikes that attract the normally-frugal C&V community.

sykerocker 

Of course it'll at least partially shift away from lugged steel. Mainly because we're mortal. 20-30 years from now the oldest of us on this list will be dead. The younger members are going to be looking towards retirement age. And the 30-50 year old collectors are going to be from a generation where lugged steel was more custom made bikes, while normal production bikes are either aluminum, carbon fiber, or a combination of the two. It's a safe bet that the attitudes of the collectors 30 years from now are going to be a lot different from what we currently hold as gospel.

repechage

I'll be bidding on a Richard Sachs roadracing trike.

repechage

They will look at friction shifting with the same dismay as some look at the Campagnolo Cambio Corsa system. "You had to do all THAT to shift?" And the guys 20 years on will have to comprehend electronics and solenoids.

mapleleafs-13 

I don't see myself collecting carbon bikes at all, they're machine made? am i correct? It just seems like there's so much more work that goes into making a steel frame, so much more skill and time which i believe this is why steel bikes will always keep their value. In the future i bet the steel stuff will just be worth a lot more. i will admit that supply will get more scarce in the future as the vintage bikes dry up a bit, in that case i'll just be collecting more recent steel frames, like stuff made by colnago, they still make steel frames to date! i hope that doesn't change, i don't know how many other companies still make them, that have the same prestige as colnago

I may buy a carbon bike one day when i'm old and decrepit, but i'll ride steel frames while i can.

if anything the collecting market may move to the 90's steel bikes or so, all the weird columbus versions that i don't know....

Sixty Fiver

I believe that in 40 years I will be looking at the beautiful custom bicycles that are being built today and will probably see these selling for astronomical prices just as the bikes from Herse and Singer command such high prices today.

Perhaps a few of those bicycles will have my name on them.

There will likely be a lot of carbon fibre and aluminium in that mix although for many it will be the steel bicycles that will still stand out.

repechage

Look up Crumpton, for carbon fibre hand made. No small amount of effort.

auchencrow

The classics of tommorow with likely be the same C&V bikes we lust after today - only infinitely more expensive.

tugrul

Not knowing much about carbon fiber, I have to wonder how one man shops that start from tube sets can compete with large companies that can make frames in whatever shape they please.

michael k

Like Schwinn Varsities,Suburbans and Continentals.

khatfull

But 40 years from now what will be thought of frames/bikes from Soma, Surly, Rivendell, VO, etc.? 40 years from now will they be the Varsities?

sillygolem

I'm sure someone will be rescuing Dr. Dews and LHTs from basements. Hybrids will replace mountain bikes and 10 speeds as townies, while others will be talking about how Lance was from the "good old days" of racing and will debate SRAM Red vs. Shimano Dura Ace.

Also, at some point fixies will come back in style, but old carbon bikes will be the thing, annoying collectors.

ftwelder

Anything that is popular now will be collectable then. If it's still around.

bbattle

Flippers will sell whatever is popular.

I'll be interested in the commuter bikes, city bikes, singlespeeds that are currently in resurgence.

sykerocker 

Exactly my point. The collectors of 20-30 years from now, for the most part, are not in this forum today. Most of us grew up during the Bike Boom or later, revere what was hot stuff back in our adolescence and young adulthood, and sneer at (if not outright despise) what's currently in fashion. Now, take that exact attitude, which will probably carry over - it's human nature, and transplant it to the collector 20-30 years from now. Which makes a carbon Madone vintage, a Tour de France the equivalent of a Cambio Corsa equipped bike, and whatever they're riding on that day as disgusting.

For the purposes of this discussion, what WE would be looking for (other than the few of us under the age of 30) doesn't matter.

P_M

If it goes the way of pre-war Martin guitars, similar vintage bicycles will fetch six figures and often bought by people who don't even ride them.