IcySmooth52

With the contemplation of my next roadie, the thought of will this be something I and others want 40 years from now? I've narrowed it down to a 2015 Lapierre Airone or Xelius, but I'm not asking about these two only. What bikes from recent years will go up in value for collectability? Of course they will go down in value first, but think about them far from now.

I think the Tarmacs will be something of 70's Schwinn Paramounts today.

ThermionicScott 

What may be more interesting are the bikes that we all think are ugly and bad, and so get thrown away without a thought -- only to become rare and collectible in the future.

fender1

Get a custom frame from a builder,who is reknown, with every "extra" possible. Make sure the builder is close to retiring or death. When they pass, your frame will go up in value. Maybe.

crank_addict

Will hipsters exist? Just looked at one of these. Crystal ball sez maybe??? LOL
Raleigh Bicycles - Sojourn

CroMo Mike 

I guess it's possible, but I have trouble imagining any current bike becoming a C&V grail in the future. There are just so many, and they all seem to be mass-produced in cookie factories by hourly workers, fitted with fishing components, and branded for the various middle-man sellers. Ho-hum.

sloar 

A Pinarello Dogma maybe, they are to expensive for the average joe to afford. Also I just seen a pic of the new Dogma's and it looks like they are moving away from the curvy rear stay and forks. Just my opinion though.

randyjawa 

Geez, after years of collecting, restoring, riding and even selling, I can't figure out what stuff is worth today, let alone twenty years from now!

gaucho777 

There are lots of great custom builders putting out some amazing bikes. But I think the mass-produced monocoque carbon frames, especially used examples, will not retain their value or be as sought after as vintage bikes of begone eras today. People distrust used carbon because of the risk of sudden failure if it's crash history is unknown. If you buy a Dogma now, you are, for the most part, buying it of performance, not aesthetics. Aesthetics are always subjective, but I don't see the appeal of most of today's mass-produced bikes. Assuming there will be further advances in performance, not to mention changes in component compatibility, what's the motivation of collecting/riding a NOS Dogma or similar high end carbon monocoque bike 30 years from now? They won't perform as well as future bikes or look as nice as current vintage bikes. Just IMHO and YMMV. Besides, don't carbon bikes have like a 10-year half-life or spontaneously combust after 50k miles?

A small sampling of builders/bikes I expect will be sought after for years to come:

DARIO PEGORETTI
Pegoretti Bicycles - Dreamride

Vanilla Bicycles - Hand Crafted in Portland, Oregon

Moots » OUR BIKES

Bruce Gordon Cycles | Hand Made Touring Bikes, Racks & Custom Cantilever Brakes

Della Santa custom built frames

Bilenky Cycle Works

MAP Bicycles | Handmade, Custom Bicycles | Chico, California.

Bishop Bikes

CHERUBIM ???? **********

Rivendell Bicycle Works (not my thing, but they do have their fans)

More here: NAHBS | North American Handmade Bicycle Show | 2014 Exhibitors List | #NAHBS

himespau 

Well, maybe if 99% of the monocoque frames asplode after 10 years, those few that are left will become rare collectibles.

RJM

We are living in a time where some really great steel bicycles are being made and when aluminium, titanium, and even carbon are being used to make absolutely awesome machines. It's hard to tell what is going to be "collectible." I think some of the smaller American shops producing really fine randonneuring machines will be collectibles, maybe some non-production Rivendells like their customs, many builders using steel, moots and seven. There are more, but I think exclusivity plays a part. I just don't see trek madones or specialized whatevers being collectible in the future.

modelmartin

ANYTHING is collectable given enough time. True.

KonAaron Snake 

Almost no bikes will ever be worth more than they were new adjusting for inflation, and fewer still would represent even a modest 4% annual return over 40 years. If you are looking at a new bike as an investment I suggest you change strategies. Valuable bikes were costly new as well. I can think of almost no bikes worth more now then new. Only a small few, like Confente, are more valued now.

Buy a bike because you like it...not for its possible value in 2030. If you want an investment I'd look at a ROTH IRA, not a bike.

Otis

That quote would be accurate for a lot of eras of bicycle manufacturing, maybe all the way back to day one....

gomango

Exactly.

Start young you guys.

You are likely going to need every penny you can get your hands on down the line.

browngw 

Some non-bike examples:
57 Chevys = 4to5 times value of other 57s
Austin Healy= 4to 5 times Triumph TR6
Steel Coke cooler=2to3 times old lessor brand.
I posit the difference is that some things are considered "Iconic".
Which bikes will be "iconic"? Around here that might include most Raleighs and Schwinns and not too many that end in a vowel.

iab

I agree only a fool would buy a collectable as an investment. Its like going to Vegas as an investment. I don't think the OP is asking for that.

But anyone collecting something they don't like is also a fool. So what bikes will be collectable in the future? Whatever floats your boat.

rootboy 

Quoth,

uncle uncle

Technically, owning one of something is a possession, owning two of something is a pair, and owning three or more of something is a collection. Someone in the future will own three bikes of current vintage. Things need not be "good" to be collected; my collection of bad science fiction movies is a testament to that. Technically, vintage equals something that is 25 or 30 years old (or some other arbitrary length of time), so the bicycles obtain vintage status by the mere passage of time . A more pointed question would be... will people be nostalgic for the current crop of bikes? And, if they are, will it mean that today's crop of rides have some sort of value based on desirability to own them. Nostalgia is best when an object brings recollections of desire of something from your youth. I started seriously riding bicycles in college (18-24 year old) then took 20 years to get married, raise kids, lose interest in my career, and come back to cycling. Most Americans (I'm not sure about other cultures) start settling into mid life in the early 30's, obtain some discretionary income, and start pining for their past youth. So that's about a decade or two of time. So will today's bikes, in 2024 to 2034, be looked upon with nostalgia and desire? I think the big key here is that most bikes are NOT ridden by a youth crowd, so, my vote is NO. I just don't think bikes draw a youthful market, at least not road bikes. Maybe my perceptions are different than others out there....

rootboy 

Or more.

IcySmooth52

I don't think that many understand the concept of this thread.

What bikes will be remembered from these times in the industry, and will they be looked upon as desirable due to their representation of the time (how bikes were in the 2010's). It seems late 70's and early 80's bikes are what people like as classic rides these days because of their lugged construction and fine Reynolds or Columbus steels. Most 90's bikes don't seem to have that desire.

Perhaps the Cannondale SuperSIX will be what people want because kevlar-glass bikes of the future don't give a 'ride' like carbon bikes of this decade. I doubt Giant Defys will be something ridden as a sexy restored roadie.

Giacomo 1 

Then there are a lot of fools out there.

The well heeled are parking their money in all types of collectibles. Have you seen the price of all types of collectibles these days? Ferrari's are an extremely good investment these days, with one just going for 38 million. Other cars are also ridiculously high to, just watch Barrett-Jackson Auctions or Christies. Art is also an extremely good investment, as are watches and other jewelry.

Is it a gamble? Sure, but so is the stock market and a lot of folks have made a nice return on collectibles since the economy tanked. Now I surely wouldn't invest in a 2014 Pinarello Dogma hoping it will bring me big bucks 30 years from now, but I see no problem investing an old Cinelli or Colnago, both of which are likely to keep on climbing...

iab

Car market historically has been very volatile, huge losses and huge gains. Same with art. Sure the last few years have been good, but really only on the upper end. The 1% are doing fine and they are not buying cars as an investment. Its more of a penis thing.

People who are in it for the money are dealers. Dealers won't hold on any collectable, they buy low, sell high and they rarely if ever sit on inventory. Too expensive.

non-fixie 

I think you'll find that there's a relationship between the ages of the bikes and those of the owners. We generally tend to want the stuff that we remember fondly from our youth. Come back in twenty years to find that bike from the late nineties and early noughties are really popular.

non-fixie 

So how does that translate into bikes, would you say?

crank_addict

Should have bought

stock way back when but you can't ride it