trmcgeehan

When gasoline goes to $5 a gallon, the Walmart parking lot will be full of bikes.

Chris L

No it won't. It will be just as full of cars as it is now. There will, however, be a lot of children suddenly sold into slavery.

RacerX

lol.
Well I gotta agree. If gas goes to $5gal. than people will just pay $5 a gal. They won't change. They won't change if it goes to $10 a gal. They will just drive less but they won't use alternative transportation.

Ellie

Hmmm... Hold on a minute. This morning I bought a tank full of petrol (gasp!) at 75.9 pence per litre. If 4 litres is approximately 1 US gallon, that's £3.036 per gallon. Given an approximate exchange of £1 to $1.45, that gives me... $4.40 per gallon.

Kind of close, huh? And yes, I still use my car, even though I have no children to sell into slavery yet.

Ellie

Hants Commuter

I don't need to sell the children yet, Got a diesel family car and a 1.1 Metro as a 2nd Car.

We haven't reduced our mileage because of the price of fuel. But then our combined mileage is less than 10,000 miles pa (and we take the car on holiday)

Roughstuff

I doubt gas will go to $5 a gallon any time soon, there is more than enough oil around to keep its price reasonable stable for a long time. And these places, such as UK and Germany, with outrageous gas prices is due to taxation, not a shortage of gasoline or excess demand in any fundamental sense. Sure an Iraqi war might cause disruptions, but i doubt they would be for long term (although there certainly ARE scenarios where this would occur).

I would, as a matter of social policy, like to see fewer cars on the road and less mileage for the cars that remain. But the major problem is in the cities, not the rural areas, where cars are both convenient and essential.

roughstuff

mike

Ellie makes a very good point.

A lot of us in the USA think that the answer to the automobile over-use problem is higher gas prices. Fast forward into the future by going to Europe or Japan where gasoline is between $4.00 to $5.00 per gallon already.

The streets are still clogged with traffic. Bicycle commuting is not tremendously more prevelant than in the USA This is despite the fact that they have better mass transit systems than the USA and they have deep rooted bicycle cultures where bicycle commuting is not considered terribly unusual. People still hop in their cars to drive three blocks for a pack of smokes.

The answer isn't more expensive gasoline. Too bad it isn't that simple.

Spire

All it would take is a small mistake in the middle-east by the intrepid George W. Bush and it could easily happen. I read somewhere that a 2% shortage would probably mean somthing like a 50-100% increase in price. The way I see it, it is entirely possible, good thing I don't drive!

Bikes-N-Drums

When gas goes to $5 a gallon . . . tire tubes will still be $5. Maybe my girlfriend will get off her butt & start pedaling around.

Ritalin

Quick! Everybody stock up on tubes before we have a 2% shortage of gas, then we'll control the world supply of bicycle tubes... we can be the bicycle mafia

think of the possiblilaties!

mike

The Middle East makes up about 25% of the total global supply of oil. The most probable way that a bump in Middle East oil supply could cause a 50% to 100% price increase is if it caused world panic, and gas hording - all very probable.

Don't think that bicycling will isolate you from the problem. If gas prices double, it will crush the USA economy. The USA is wholely dependent on cheap fuel. You can have a bicycle with no job to ride it to.

Styk33

I know this is bad, but that just is funny.

Brains

[quote] If gas prices double, it will crush the USA economy. The USA is wholely dependent on cheap fuel [unquote]

....and now you understand why the rest of the world is currently looking rather cynically at Mr Bush, with his saber rattling with Iraq.

As an oilman he is well aware of just how dependent the USA is on cheap fuel, and if that means he has to 'liberate' Iraq or any other country with lots of oil then he will do so.

His latest attempt to try and link the ligitimate (albeit very unplesent) government of Iraq with their enemies Al-Quada and/or the Taliban would be laughable if it were not potentially so serious.

If his ventures in Iraq come to nothing, I'd be very worried if I was in a position of power in Venezuela, as that would be the next logical country that will need 'liberating' to ensure the cheap fuel for the USA continues.

Otherwise it will be Nigeria and/or Lybia as logical targets.

maraxis

I think I remember from ecomonic classes that gasoline is classed as an in-elastic product. By this I mean that no-matter what the price the demand will still be there.
If US gas went up to $5 a gallon, then it would have a knock on effect to the economy.
Even at, say, $10 a gallon shops would still need to be stocked with goods that are trucked in. This increased haulage cost would be reflected in increased prices for goods.
People would then demand wage increases in order to afford these new prices and you get a nice inflationary merry-go-round.

Chris L

This is, of course, an extremely valid point. Here in Australia we've got the farcical situation where fuel prices in the rural areas are 20-30 cents/litre (around $1/gallon) more expensive than in the cities. Some of these rural areas are as much as 500km from the nearest town. Is it any wonder this is the most urbanised country in the world?

Of course, if urban planners stopped simply setting aside massive tracts of land for car-parks, perhaps the problem in the cities would solve itself. Maybe the money the plough into car-parks could be put into public transport instead.

Bandit

"The Middle East makes up about 25% of the total global supply of oil. The most probable way that a bump in Middle East oil supply could cause a 50% to 100% price increase is if causes world panic, and gas hording - all very probable."

i'm no expert but i believe the price of oil has more to do with perception on the part of consumers than the reality of supply/demand. if Big Oil and Big Oil's ***** (that'd be GWShrub .... errrr, Bush) feel that consumers BELIEVE there could be an oil shortage as a result of an invasion of iraq, they will most assuredly respond by hiking prices. it's called "gouging," and it is the way business is done in the energy marketplace. ask californians about electricity "shortages."

it is true that people in europe and asia pay lots more for gas, but that they continue to drive. i believe they drive less, however, and they tend to favor more fuel-efficient vehicles, including motorcycles and mo-peds. in my opinion it is unrealistic to expect americans to stop driving cars, but a big hike in prices might finally put a dent in sales of gas-guzzling SUVs, vans, and trucks. it would be great to see these behemoths go the way of the dinosaur.

jerseybikergrl

:angel: As a resident/victim of the most congested state in the union and also with the highest car insurance rates, let me say that I would love to see $5 a gallon so all those posers in the SUVs have to pay through the nose. You know the type, they only go offroad when the fail to negotiate the spaces at the Bridgewater Mall!!!!


RIDE MORE

Andy Dreisch

OK, you asked, so about the shortage in CA.

• No new power plants for years and years and years
• Increasing demand brought about by then-booming economy and hot spells in summertime
• "Deregulation" in 1996 that (a) prohibited utilities from signing long-term contracts and (b) barred price increases until 2002.

Funny, isn't how the "crisis" has been averted?

• Power plants have been/are being built
• Demand has dropped precipitously due to soft economy and two back-to-back cool summers
• Saner states, like Nevada, sell CA its excess power

So, you blame the "energy marketplace" (implicitly, greed) for natural swings in supply and demand, exacerbated by so-called deregulation. What is "gouging" if CA is forced to buy nearly all its power off the spot market? Isn't the spot market always going to be higher than long-term markets in times of shortage? Any two-year-old can figure that out. CA politicians apparently can't.

Bandit

any two-year-old might also surmise than any business transaction with enron is liable to be less than aboveboard.

oh, and by the way ... what political misbehavior do you attribute the fact that californians pay more for gasoline than any other state?

Andy Dreisch

Davis tried but failed to deflect the blame of the electricity crisis to Enron. Prove the association if you feel so adamant about it.

On the higher gas prices, are you aware of the special formulations that CA alone stipulates? This, by virtue of the CA Air Resource Board, or CARB?

So, CARB regs limit the availablity of gas that is freely available elsewhere. You may or may not agree to the priciple of the CARB regs, but a natural by-product of those regs is a lessening of supply (as well as a more expensive refinery process).

You are aware of this, right?

LittleBigMan

In Atlanta, we are going to adopt regulations that require
gasoline meet higher clean air standards. This will make the gas more expensive in our area.

Bandit

you mean am i aware of special formulations? yup. i'm aware. but i seriously doubt these formulations account for the price difference. more likely it's an example of oil companies getting what they can from a docile market. but i'm kind of cynical when it comes to Big Oil.

thanks for the debate, andy. as i stated in the beginning i am no expert on this topic, and i value your opinion.

by the way, many people feel it's poor form to adopt a hostile tone toward people who post opinions that don't jibe with your own.

are you aware of this?

Andy Dreisch

Yep, that's the price paid for the benefit of cleaner air. I'm not arguing the merits of that choice or that policy, as I was careful not to argue the merits of CARB in my post. That's a whole different matter. But a natural by-product of special formulations is a lessening of supply and increased refinery costs.

(I just hope you're not going to use MTBE as an oxygenate; MTBE has totally screwed CA water supplies.)

Andy Dreisch

Hey, it's a discussion forum. I was challenging your statements. I believe that when "facts" are stated with no qualification ("In my opinion") and no attribution, then they're fair game.

But I'm no expert either. Never claim to be.

Sorry if I was abrupt.

Andy Dreisch

Here's some attribution from https://www.haas.berkeley.edu/groups/...41000.html#gas. This is from Berkeley of all places!!

A quote: "That [CA's special formulations] has put the state in a very precarious supply/demand balance which, as we learned last year, makes us vulnerable to price spikes whenever a refinery has problems".