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Old 01-18-05, 09:13 AM   #1
Corsaire
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At US $ 100.00 the barrel of oil in three years, and $ 160.00 in five years, americans will have to finally tighten the belt and find cheaper ways of transportation, the future is gloomy for the US economy, not so for the bike.........

read this utmost interesting article below.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/...1.asp?GT1=6065


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"Keep peadling, it'll come handy in a near future" we, commuters will have the upper hand because we are already doing it.
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Old 01-18-05, 09:38 AM   #2
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O boy! No wonder they call economics the "dismal science" The trouble with these kind of predictions is unforeseen factors usually intervene to alter the dismal (or rosy) scenario....

Not that I don't agree with the basic thrust of these arguments....but maybe that's just me...


But hey, how can you go wrong with a bike, no matter what the future?
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Old 01-18-05, 09:43 AM   #3
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What is really going to be fun is seeing what adaptations are going to be made when fuel costs skyrocket. Everything is money-driven, so we'll see!
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Old 01-18-05, 09:48 AM   #4
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I'd like to think that the automotive industry want to keep their power, so I can only assume that in a couple years from now you will see Hydrogen (or alternate fuels) powered Hummers.
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Old 01-18-05, 09:51 AM   #5
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At some threshold, the rising cost of a gallon of gas will put a hard end to suburban sprawl.

This is a good thing!

Unless, of course, other fuels are put into use before that happens. Then instead of gas, SUV's will run on methane, hydrogen or electric.
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Old 01-18-05, 09:53 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by BenyBen
I'd like to think that the automotive industry want to keep their power, so I can only assume that in a couple years from now you will see Hydrogen (or alternate fuels) powered Hummers.
This is true, now you hear more and more about electric/hydrogen cars, automakers are already jumping, head first on this wagon, finding affordable ways for people to own them, they know what's coming or could come.
It comes to mind a book I read awhile ago: "The Rise and Fall of Great Superpowers" by Paul Kennedy, in it pretty much it's described that is a cycle, it's jus a matter of time before we, the US, as we know it will cease to exist, as a great superpower that is, a time will come when we will no longer have the "pot by the handle", as we have been so used to and beacuse of that, spoiled-rotten to in our spending habits.
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Old 01-18-05, 11:29 AM   #7
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From what I've seen on tv, hydrogen would require very minamal changes to the carcentric culture. Asides from the engine, you will still need to go to a "gas" station, and refill your car. They'll no doubt put their paws onto that market to try and keep their grips on it.
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Old 01-18-05, 11:33 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by H23
At some threshold, the rising cost of a gallon of gas will put a hard end to suburban sprawl.

This is a good thing!

Unless, of course, other fuels are put into use before that happens. Then instead of gas, SUV's will run on methane, hydrogen or electric.
The end of suburban sprawl, that's interesting. Where do you propose everyone live?
In skyscraper apartment complexes with no yard?
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Old 01-18-05, 11:38 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by FXjohn
The end of suburban sprawl, that's interesting. Where do you propose everyone live?
In skyscraper apartment complexes with no yard?
Gee, just like the Asian countries... This is exactly how they live, and there are tons of bicycles in those communities that I have seen. Shanghai, Hangzhou, Hong Kong as examples.

Sounds like the future... ever see Blade Runner?
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Old 01-18-05, 11:47 AM   #10
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The reason the alternatatives WE ALREADY HAVE never became widespread is that it makes the consumer way too autonomous, in my opinion. The reason they're pushing for hydrogen is because it'll work about like gasoline, you'll be bled for funds 2+ times a week, by your friendly neighborhood Shell station. The industry dictates what becomes obsolete and when.
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Old 01-18-05, 11:48 AM   #11
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Electricity and hydrogen wont be cheap alternatives, since it will take fossil fuel to produce them, unless we go to nuclear.
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Old 01-18-05, 11:48 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by genec
Gee, just like the Asian countries... This is exactly how they live, and there are tons of bicycles in those communities that I have seen. Shanghai, Hangzhou, Hong Kong as examples.

Sounds like the future... ever see Blade Runner?
Who needs trees and a yard when I can live in a damn rabbit hutch with a neighbor on every wall..whoopeee, yeah that's setting your sites high. What would be wrong with more trails in the suburbs?
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Old 01-18-05, 12:06 PM   #13
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Who needs trees and a yard when I can live in a damn rabbit hutch with a neighbor on every wall..whoopeee, yeah that's setting your sites high. What would be wrong with more trails in the suburbs?
Didn't say I would like it... personally I thought the gas shortages of the '70s were a blast... I kept hoping that cars would be banned from driving at least one day. Instant bike heaven.

Just saying that the rabbit hutch approach seems to be the norm in major cities all over the world... NYC, Hong Kong, you name it... single family home with a yard is the dream, not the reality for many.
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Old 01-18-05, 12:28 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by FXjohn
The end of suburban sprawl, that's interesting. Where do you propose everyone live?
In skyscraper apartment complexes with no yard?
Yes!
Or at least places that are more dense than 1.5 car per person mcmansion suburbia.
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Old 01-18-05, 12:34 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by H23
Yes!
Or at least places that are more dense than 1.5 car per person mcmansion suburbia.
Why? i live out in the country with a few acres and no neighbors(not suburbia)...it's the best!!

Why don't you want people to have a house, a yard and a vehicle?

Doesn't mean we can't plan them out more pedestrain and bike friendly.
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Old 01-18-05, 12:45 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by FXjohn
Why? i live out in the country with a few acres and no neighbors(not suburbia)...it's the best!!

Why don't you want people to have a house, a yard and a vehicle?

Doesn't mean we can't plan them out more pedestrain and bike friendly.

I'm sure its very nice, really. And for some folks, it is necessary-- for example: farmers and ranchers, and their support networks.

The problem is that if you get too many people living that way, it becomes harmful for the environment and our social fabric. Among other things... public transport becomes intractable, cities loose their tax-bases, people end up commuting ridiculous distances for work and shopping (wasting energy), highways have to be laid down from everywhere to everywhere (breaking up natural spaces), etc...
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Old 01-18-05, 01:02 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FXjohn
Why? i live out in the country with a few acres and no neighbors(not suburbia)...it's the best!!

Why don't you want people to have a house, a yard and a vehicle?

Doesn't mean we can't plan them out more pedestrain and bike friendly.
People will have the option of living in the burbs but the question remains, will you be able to afford it?? Should gas prices go through the roof, your transportation and utility costs may exceed 30% of your income!

I happen to believe we will go back to burning coal by the train loads before this century is over. When this happens, everyone will be happy again so don't worry about the end of oil. Don't worry, be happy.
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Old 01-18-05, 01:17 PM   #18
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Yeah, I really don't think the answer is becoming like East Germany, either. I think perhaps technology, if utilized wisely, will offer us entirely new solutions to our problems, if we don't go Luddite or Robocop before then.
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Old 01-18-05, 01:24 PM   #19
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I happen to believe we will go back to burning coal by the train loads before this century is over. When this happens, everyone will be happy again so don't worry about the end of oil. Don't worry, be happy.
The extremist eco people will be handcuffing themselves to those trains.

Urban sprawl... I have never understood it.. Ironic how I live in the "city" of Pasadena, since it has been engulfed by Houston, just no annexed. I am the minority in this town, ride bike or walk if I can. So if everyone goes to biking around.. I will be able to look at them funny.

As for BenyBen's "I'd like to think that the automotive industry want to keep their power, so I can only assume that in a couple years from now you will see Hydrogen (or alternate fuels) powered Hummers" I can see myself in 2015 riding the new FORD Mustang XTR.

Nascar is replaced with Velodrome racing!
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Old 01-18-05, 06:02 PM   #20
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The hydrogen cells are just a carrier; they need to power up. Likely with natural gas or nuclear. At this point, I figure any sort of workable model is years down the road; if the scenarios posited in the article are correct, there will be severe economic and social dislocation. For instance, you are likely to see a movement away from big box stores, more centralization of housing patterns, and more mixed use communities.

However, the economy will likely survive, but not without radical shifts. Given the hubris of the current administration, I find it hard to believe there will be much debt forgiveness for the US out there, especially given the way we have treated nations like Argentina. My advice? Invest in real estate close in to city centers, rail lines (more fuel efficent than truck for moving goods), Europe (better multi-modal transport infrastructure, less debt), and the like.

And ride your bike-- not just because it's smart, but because it's fun. We might all need some fun if the scenarios in the article come true.
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Old 01-18-05, 07:48 PM   #21
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The end of suburban sprawl, that's interesting. Where do you propose everyone live?
In skyscraper apartment complexes with no yard?
Yes, if they're honest, that's what the Left and the Greens do want. To march us all into giant, egalitarian apartment blocks in the inner cities.
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Old 01-18-05, 07:59 PM   #22
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Yes!
Or at least places that are more dense than 1.5 car per person mcmansion suburbia.
I don't think those cheering for high oil prices, $100 a barrel, appreciate exactly what that would mean.

You get the idea that all they're imagining is fewer cars on the roads. They see themsevels buzzing on their bikes past their frustrated neighbors, all of whom are going broke at the gas station. Maybe a driver shakes a fist at them, or something. Then they go home and pack a bowl. Dude!

If gas goes through the roof, you've got a good chance of losing your job. If you keep your job, you're going to be paying higher taxes, affording a lot less... Drastic cuts in student loans, in medicare, in social security, mortgage subsidies, and so on. Your neighbors' $25K credit card debts aren't your problem now, but they will be if they and millions like them default on the debt. And, to return to our topic, where do you think your Shimano bike parts come from? Not from windmills. And those parts don't get to the store on delivery bikes.

Only someone who doesn't think seriously about the economy wishes for such drastic rises in oil prices.
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Old 01-18-05, 08:05 PM   #23
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Yes, if they're honest, that's what the Left and the Greens do want. To march us all into giant, egalitarian apartment blocks in the inner cities.
Yes, for sure!

It's really too bad there isn't some middle ground between suburban sprawl with low density development and 1.5 acre lots and mega-highrises. Too bad indeed.
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Old 01-18-05, 08:12 PM   #24
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Originally Posted by Merriwether
I don't think those cheering for high oil prices, $100 a barrel, appreciate exactly what that would mean.
[...]
Only someone who doesn't think seriously about the economy wishes for such drastic rises in oil prices.

Sure, bad things will happen if the price of oil goes too high, but bad things are already happening as a result of suburban sprawl and people who think nothing of driving to work alone in a 3+ ton SUV.

In any case, the cost of oil will go up eventually. Its only a matter of time. How painful it will be depends on how intelligently we use our natural resources.
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Old 01-18-05, 08:14 PM   #25
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Sure, bad things will happen if the price of oil goes too high, but bad things are already happening as a result of suburban sprawl and people who think nothing of driving to work alone in a 3+ ton SUV.

.
What bad things are you directly blaming SUV's and urban sprawl on? I'm living on my couple of acres and a house on the lake, cram your crappy apartments.
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