For those non-number nerds who also ride bikes, the general connotation of a black swan, or black swan event, is something so far outside the realm of probabilities that it is not even considered as a possibility. No one even thinks of it happening.
I have shared with you guys about having had two surgeries this last year for the shoulder, which is doing pretty well. You've probably read a time or two that I've had several knee surgeries, all stemming back to youthful sports and long distance running. The long story is that the right knee is a sad osteo-arthritic cartilage-deficienct transplanted-ACL bone marrow swelling, cruching, grinding affair most of the time. But it works.
So, I'm recovering from the shoulder stuff and building back up to riding longer distances and trying to get my legs back. Two days before Christmas I do a 30 mile ride in the hills, so things are looking up. That night I take the family out to one of the nice places in the area, a resort restaurant up in the hills overlooking the lakes. On the way out of the restaurant I am putting on my jacket when I stick my left foot into a trail of grease on the floor, do the splits and cram my right knee into the floor at a really odd angle. The pain and swelling starts immediately, and after everthing settles down in the restaurant I limp on back home. I spend Christmas with the knee immobilized, ice in a recliner, emergency room visits, x-rays, and MRI''s. (and yes...we have the insurance-liability situation in hand)
The pain has been getting less and most of the time I can now, two weeks later, walk without a painful limp, though there is always pain in the knee. After the first few days my G.P. allowed me to get back to biking, first on a stationary, and then on the road if there was no swelling.
I was thinking that this might be the time the ortho doctor says TKR is the only hope. There is a new cartilage tear on the outside and a possible new one or maybe older on the inside. Fortunately, the ACL graft from six years ago is still good, and there are no new torn ligaments. However, after a long visit yesterday with my orthopedic doctor, we decide to try putting me on Celebrex (as needed) before doing cortisone, a knee scope to fix the cartilage, or a total knee replacement as last resort.
Its in the 20's here today, but the roads are clear so I'm going to bundle up and take a short spin anyway.
So, this black swan event puts me on Celebrex for now. I'm really hoping it helps with the pain I've had, maybe in a whole new way. Does anyone else have any experience with anti-inflamation drugs such as Celebrex, or even the now-defunct Vioxx?