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Old 07-19-07, 09:16 AM   #1
BSLeVan
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What will the next ten years bring?

I found an old wool jersey in the attic, and as I picked it up, I remembered the smell of it when it was wet. This got me to thinking that most of us have been around long enough to see some amazing changes in cycling. The bikes, equipment, clothing, etc. have all changed beyond what I could ever have imaginged when I first got into cycling. I then started to wonder what changes would come along in the next ten years. I know, I'm glad that I no longer have to wear scratchy smelly (when wet) wool jerseys, and brifters make my riding much more enjoyable. But what would I like to see as an improvement in the next ten years? How about you? Any thoughts about what changes you'd like to see in the next ten years?

One thought I've had is a set of handlebars with a strip of super bright LED lights build into them. Someting along the lines of lighting equivalent to a 10+ watt system would be nice with batteries that would last years instead of hours.
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Old 07-19-07, 09:20 AM   #2
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Electronic shifting groups?

http://bicycletech.blogspot.com/2006...-frontier.html
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Old 07-19-07, 09:24 AM   #3
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Cheap customized saddles that virtually eliminate saddle pain similar to the Surefoot orthotics and custom fitted ski boots. Electronic shifting with no cables and more gears.
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Old 07-19-07, 09:46 AM   #4
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Cheap customized saddles that virtually eliminate saddle pain similar to the Surefoot orthotics and custom fitted ski boots. Electronic shifting with no cables and more gears.
Isn't that a Recumbent with Memory Foam padding? LOL!
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Old 07-19-07, 09:55 AM   #5
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Wool jerseys, leather saddles and friction shifters.
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Old 07-19-07, 09:59 AM   #6
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When I walked back into a bike shop last year for my Kaitai after -repeat after me- 20 years away from biking, I felt totally out of place... like Rip Van Winkle. When I went back to try out my Reno this year, I had to ask how the shifters worked
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Old 07-19-07, 10:17 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BSLeVan View Post
I found an old wool jersey in the attic, and as I picked it up, I remembered the smell of it when it was wet. This got me to thinking that most of us have been around long enough to see some amazing changes in cycling. The bikes, equipment, clothing, etc. have all changed beyond what I could ever have imaginged when I first got into cycling. I then started to wonder what changes would come along in the next ten years. I know, I'm glad that I no longer have to wear scratchy smelly (when wet) wool jerseys, and brifters make my riding much more enjoyable. But what would I like to see as an improvement in the next ten years? How about you? Any thoughts about what changes you'd like to see in the next ten years?

One thought I've had is a set of handlebars with a strip of super bright LED lights build into them. Someting along the lines of lighting equivalent to a 10+ watt system would be nice with batteries that would last years instead of hours.
I don't know about years, but Lithium Polymer batteries are available now that have 4 times the capacity of the nicads we were using a few years ago and 2 times the capacity of NiMH batteries considered great today. The cost keeps rising ($250 battery pack) but that will reverse as the product goes into mass production.
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Old 07-19-07, 10:21 AM   #8
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Cheap GPS with GUI display screens (Graphical User Interface for those of you who are not forced to eat breath and sleep computers.......think windows on you home computer)

Carbon fiber everything.........moulded, not hand layed for lower prices.

And most importantly, another generation of 50+ posters.
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Old 07-19-07, 10:36 AM   #9
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Somewhere along the line, I don't know if it will be within 10 years, but carbon fiber will be cheap and plentiful. There could be $400 CF hybrids. We're already seeing full CF road bikes edging down to around $1200.

Before seeing Beverly's post, I was recently thinking of how electronic shifters could be an idea in the making. I would sure rather have something like that than thumb shifters.
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Old 07-19-07, 10:43 AM   #10
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It really doesn't matter what the advances for the next 10 years are. With what I just spent on the BMC the CFOs not going to let me get it.
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Old 07-19-07, 11:10 AM   #11
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Bikes without chains and Infinitely variable speed "transmissions," and still lighter than current drive trains. Tires that seldom go flat (we're getting close to that now), and a built-in anti dog device.
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Old 07-19-07, 11:24 AM   #12
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Of course, the vast majority of bikes in ten years will be white.
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Old 07-19-07, 02:08 PM   #13
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Wool jerseys, leather saddles and friction shifters.


And Ibuprofen that doesn't rot your kidneys when taken intravenously
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Old 07-19-07, 02:15 PM   #14
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Before seeing Beverly's post, I was recently thinking of how electronic shifters could be an idea in the making. I would sure rather have something like that than thumb shifters.

Or maybe no shifters at all. Technologies like Fallbrook's NuVinci Drivetrain could be lighter so that no one would even want gear shifters.
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Old 07-19-07, 03:49 PM   #15
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Of course, the vast majority of bikes in ten years will be white.
Watching the TDF- It will be by the Autumn. I am trying to spot the Non- White bikes.
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Old 07-19-07, 04:33 PM   #16
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Bikes without chains
Here you go!

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Old 07-20-07, 06:26 AM   #17
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Ten years from now we will weigh a little more, and be slower.

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Old 07-20-07, 07:19 AM   #18
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Or maybe no shifters at all. Technologies like Fallbrook's NuVinci Drivetrain could be lighter so that no one would even want gear shifters.
I played the vid on this site and this is interesting. Kind of like the Blackburn Ultra trainer. If they ever get this light enough and with a wide enough range it will catch on. I liked the fact that the rider still controls the position of the power trasfer(the auto shift schemes just do not work that well). Electronic shifting and even more choices in frame materials will be the rage. Unless stronger materials are found, 10 speed is the limit although everyone will try to sell you a 12 speed or whatever.
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Old 07-20-07, 07:30 AM   #19
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I played the vid on this site and this is interesting. Kind of like the Blackburn Ultra trainer. If they ever get this light enough and with a wide enough range it will catch on. I liked the fact that the rider still controls the position of the power trasfer(the auto shift schemes just do not work that well). Electronic shifting and even more choices in frame materials will be the rage. Unless stronger materials are found, 10 speed is the limit although everyone will try to sell you a 12 speed or whatever.
It would seem though that you need some form of power generator to drive all these electrics. Shimano's auto transmission (either for sale or under test in Europe) has a small computer and electronic dash panel on the handlebar and a power generator in the front hub. Since all power on the bike ultimately comes from your legs then by some amount you will get slower and have to pedal harder. Might be ok for an around town commuter but it will be a while before it catches on with a lot of riders.
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Old 07-20-07, 08:11 AM   #20
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How about an anti-gravity device built into your bike? I wouldn't mind riding a bike with an effective weight of one pound.
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Old 07-20-07, 08:46 AM   #21
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First, adding motors to bikes.
Adding two more wheels for stability.
Enclosing them for weather protection.
Adding additional seats.
adding air conditioning and heating, radio, cd/dvd, seat belts, windows that roll up and down.
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Old 07-20-07, 08:49 AM   #22
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I remember the 1960s as a golden age of bulletproof "cruisers" that could carry huge loads and fast, convenient English 3-speeds. In subsequent years, bicycles became more oriented to sports and recreation, which meant inconveniient to use. Just ten years ago, getting a decent utility bike usually required importing it yourself from Holland or Germany.

Thinkg have changed. You can get a Breezer, Kogo-Myata, and others just by walking into a store! The Wall Street Journal has even noticed this increased interest in useful bikes. My hope is that increasing road congestion and scarce parking will continue to drive a demand for "normal bikes." There have been some advances since 1960. LED headlights and tail lights, disk brakes, and lighter materials have improved things quite a bit.

For, example, I remember the old Schwinn Varsity. Back in its day, it was considered a real enthusiast's bike for the mass market. No fenders, ten speeds, an exposed chain that would eat your pants, and a thin, spidery-looking frame that looked like everything had been sacrificed for light weight and performance. One showed up at my LBS this year. I hefted the thing, and it weighed about 40 pounds. The tubing may be small in diameter, but it is basically gaspipe. My modern commuter bike, with drum brakes, chainguard, generator, rack, lights and fenders is lighter. So, bicycle technology really is improving. For that matter, the wonderful old "English Racers" has steel rims and you had to lightly hold the brakes on rainy downhills to keep them dry and working.

So yeah, I'd hope for LED headlights that focus as well as halogen ones, but are sufficiently low powered to run off a hub dynamo, more efficient hub dynamos, lighter commuter/utility bikes that still retain their practical features, and cooler rainsuits for hot summer commutes, and advanced internal hubs that allow a wider gear range.

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Old 07-20-07, 08:58 AM   #23
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How about an anti-gravity device built into your bike? I wouldn't mind riding a bike with an effective weight of one pound.
How bout changing that request to one built into my belt.....
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Old 07-20-07, 09:17 AM   #24
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How bout changing that request to one built into my belt.....
Right! If my effective weight was one pound, I wouldn't mind that my bike weighs thirty-three pounds.
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Old 07-20-07, 10:06 AM   #25
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All kidding put aside, the newest bikes are of great quality and convenience IMHO.
I have minimum trouble and go on extended trips without worry. My Madone road bike (for instance) is so light, fast, reliable, user friendly that I have trouble imagining the next major improvement.

There is such a thing as Maturity in products. For instance, Ball Bearings have not changed much in a lifetime and there are other mature products which have had only cosmetic changes.
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