What are the odds?
I just returned from the Midwest Tandem Rally in Appleton, Wisconsin (Had a really wonderful time by the way.) My wife and I were preparing for our first ride on Saturday morning. As I looked through the tub in which I normally keep my helmet, gloves and shoes I noticed a serious shortage of shoes. Oh poo poo! What do I do now?
Before we could even consider waiting for the local bike shop to open, a fellow in the very next car, whom I had never met before asks: "What size?" He's riding with SPD equipped sandals but has a pair of Shimano shoes, perfectly sized (10 1/2), that I can borrow. They even had the less common silver SPD multi release cleat that I'm used to. For the believers: Do you think that God sometimes performs little miracles in our lives? For the agnostics: Would such an incident sway your thinking? For the athiests: What do you suppose the odds must be? |
Please see my thread on "Amazing Bicycling Coincidences."
http://www.bikeforums.net/showthread.php?t=335723 |
As a believer, I don't think God cared whether or not you had a pair of bicycle shoes.
I'd say the odds were about 1 in 22 that the guy next to you would have a pair of shoes to fit. (He probably wore something between a size 8 and a 13, and there was a one in two chance that he had two pair of shoes in his kit). Actually, the odds were probably a little better than that, but you would need to account for the random distribution of shoe sizes and the most probable size occurrence. Then the odds get a little worse when you figure in the clear configuration, and who wears SPD versus other types. Overall, I'd estiamte a 1 in 15 chance of this occurring. Much better than the odds on the lottery. |
Before anyone else says it: Didn't you have a pair of Florsheim loafers with you?
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Originally Posted by Monoborracho
(Post 5201247)
As a believer, I don't think God much cared whether or not you had a pair of bicycle shoes.
I'd say the odds were about 1 in 22 that the guy next to you would have a pair of shoes to fit. (He probably wore a size eight through 13, and a one in two chance that he had two pair of shoes in his kit). Actually, the odds were probably a little better than that, but you would need to account for the random distribution of shoe sizes and the most probable size occurrence. |
I own three pair, and wear them all at various times.
And yes, when traveling I take my Shimano sandals and another pair of cycling shoes. |
Originally Posted by Monoborracho
(Post 5201279)
I own three pair, and wear them all at various times.
And yes, when traveling I take my Shimano sandals and another pair of cycling shoes. |
Then maybe the odds are not as good as I thought.
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Originally Posted by Monoborracho
(Post 5201362)
Then maybe the odds are not as good as I thought.
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I think that the odds of someone using Shimano sandals also bringing normal cycling shoes are probably better than otherwise, since sandals might not be appropriate for every situation. But even if there is a God who performs little miracles like that, you might want to avoid wasting yours and save them up for bigger things which you will inevitably need at some point. After all, while you were putting on those borrowed shoes, I guarantee there was someone not too far away dying of cancer or whatever. If I were a religious person, I would pray that God ignore my little problems and help others with their major ones.
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Originally Posted by Longfemur
(Post 5201409)
IBut even if there is a God who performs little miracles like that, you might want to avoid wasting yours and save them up for bigger things which you will inevitably need at some point. After all, while you were putting on those borrowed shoes, I guarantee there was someone not too far away dying of cancer or whatever. If I were a religious person, I would pray that God ignore my little problems and help others with their major ones.
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So, what was the ride like? Where did you go?
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Not swayed, but a nice bit of luck for sure.
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Originally Posted by Retro Grouch
(Post 5201272)
So do you generally pack an extra pair of cycling shoes with you? What percentage of cyclists even own more than 1 pair?
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Originally Posted by Retro Grouch
(Post 5201152)
For the believers: Do you think that God sometimes performs little miracles in our lives?
For the agnostics: Would such an incident sway your thinking? For the athiests: What do you suppose the odds must be? Buddha would say that everything is connected. |
Originally Posted by Retro Grouch
(Post 5201272)
So do you generally pack an extra pair of cycling shoes with you? What percentage of cyclists even own more than 1 pair?
I also believe that God is interested in every detail of our lives and is more gracious and generous than we can comprehend. |
Originally Posted by robtown
(Post 5205334)
I also believe that God is interested in every detail of our lives and is more gracious and generous than we can comprehend.
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I've always found it interesting that our species -can I say that?- has such a propensity to explain the unexplainable with something even more fantastic and unexplainable: an omniscient, all-powerful being who -gosh!- looks just like us. I forgot my shoes, someone just then showed up with a spare pair.... must be god! I don't know what it take to sway me but it's more than that... Read up on Taoism.
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I actually carry two pairs with me when I travel. One, my Sidis are normally worn unless it is wet. If it is going to be wet I wear an older pair of Shimano shoes I bring along.
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Originally Posted by Retro Grouch
(Post 5201272)
So do you generally pack an extra pair of cycling shoes with you? What percentage of cyclists even own more than 1 pair?
The main reason for leaving the sandals in the van is I often forget to bring my socks for the regular pair:o I also like wearing the sandals if there is any chance of rain. |
Originally Posted by SaiKaiTai
(Post 5205485)
I've always found it interesting that our species -can I say that?- has such a propensity to explain the unexplainable with something even more fantastic and unexplainable: an omniscient, all-powerful being who -gosh!- looks just like us. I forgot my shoes, someone just then showed up with a spare pair.... must be god! I don't know what it take to sway me but it's more than that... Read up on Taoism.
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Calm down there SKT, or this will blow up into a thread that needs a moderator. While I'm all for discussing a broad set of topics, debating the merits of religion here will make people uncomfortable and drive them off of the forum. Would hate to see that.
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I think you should buy a lottery ticket.
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Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil
(Post 5206051)
Calm down there SKT, or this will blow up into a thread that needs a moderator. While I'm all for discussing a broad set of topics, debating the merits of religion here will make people uncomfortable and drive them off of the forum. Would hate to see that.
I don't know any more about it than anyone else, I'm just not willing to take a guess at something without more to go on. If it works for people, it works for them. I'm just representing equal time. Carry on. I do like the basic tenet of Taoism: we are all where we chose to be at any given moment in time. Our individual decisions have led us there. In the course of things, paths intersect. How those paths intersect and the value they have for a given individual depends upon who "in tune" someone is with their "nature" Oh, and I don't not carry spare shoes. Or laces, either. Hmmmm... |
Originally Posted by Monoborracho
(Post 5201247)
I'd say the odds were about 1 in 22 that the guy next to you would have a pair of shoes to fit.
Smiling an apology to Artkansas. |
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