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Old 05-09-11, 11:04 AM   #1
DnvrFox
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20 years? 30 years? You? Bicycling in general? Technology? Infrastructure?

Some of you are mere kids at 50, while the Baby Boomers are inching along over and past 65. We pre-WWII folks are into our 70's.

So, what's the future look like in 10, 20, 30, maybe 40 years?

For you?

For bicycling in general?

Bicycling technology?

Infrastructure?

Other?

Hopefully, staying away from a political discussion, please!!

How about it?

Any predictions?
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Old 05-09-11, 11:14 AM   #2
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If I were good at predicting the future I'm thinking that I would have acquired a lot more money.
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Old 05-09-11, 11:14 AM   #3
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For me? Dead

For bicycling in general? Increase 3-wheel, electric powered, recumbents; wider bike lanes with limited auto traffic. Banishing of semi-tractor trailer trucks (more use of trains). More commuter trains (i.e., LRT). Lockable places where you can store your bike while shopping. More rental bikes as they use in France, etc.

Bicycling technology? We are at the peak as far as efficiency is concerned. But more electric powered bikes and possibly solar powered units.
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Old 05-09-11, 11:16 AM   #4
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If I were good at predicting the future I'm thinking that I would have acquired a lot more money.
We accept bad predictions.
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Old 05-09-11, 11:28 AM   #5
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All humans will be chipped, whatever bikes will be made of they will still have to be propelled by legs/arms. We will have a toilet flushing tax, tax by the mile for motor vehicles, people will grow their own spare body parts. Every one will be armed by law(except California). Weed will be legal. We will still have 49 cent tacos. Cubs will not win a World Series. Potholes will still be unfilled. Sugar, salt, fat and caffine,beer will still be the main food items. Letterman will still be on.
TV will be 4D. Pirates of the Caribbeans X.
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Old 05-09-11, 12:14 PM   #6
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I hope to have alot of good years to bike and run, but i always think i would like to help out at events somehow if not able to do the event.Pass out water, sign people in etc.I guess to give back , i appreciate the volunteers who help made events special.
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Old 05-09-11, 12:34 PM   #7
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I can look back at the Last 20 years since I started cycling and not much difference- Bikes may be better but all that means is that I can do steeper hills and longer distances.

So I expect in 20 years to be riding my "New" Pinarrelo (It will takes me 20 years to save up for it) up Everest from Base camp. By that time they would have got a road to the top that is no greater than 10% slope. May be hard but think of the downhill.
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Old 05-09-11, 12:40 PM   #8
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I agree with Cadillac that we are pretty far up the curve on bicycle technology. I hope we will see a large expansion of bike lanes and trails. I expect we will see some pretty nice advances in eBikes and possibly in folders. As for me - it depends on a toss of the health dice. If I stay healthy I expect to be riding for 20+ years (currently 62).
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Old 05-09-11, 12:53 PM   #9
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The world price of gas is going to go up sharply over the decades.

At the same time, the value of the dollar is going to decline against foreign
currencies, making imports like oil significantly more expensive seperate from
price increases resulting from global demand.

At some point between 5 and 10 bucks a gallon, the country will start to slide.
The big personal vehicles will vanish, suburbs will empty as people move into the cities.

Construction in cities and on transportation and energy infrastructure will boom to handle the changes.
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Old 05-09-11, 01:58 PM   #10
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I'm almost starting to buy into Kurzweil's predictions of a technological 'singularity', which would make life past that point radically different and impossible to predict:

Kurzweil writes that, due to paradigm shifts, a trend of exponential growth extends Moore's law from integrated circuits to earlier transistors, vacuum tubes, relays, and electromechanical computers. He predicts that the exponential growth will continue, and that in a few decades the computing power of all computers will exceed that of human brains, with superhuman artificial intelligence appearing around the same time.

I truly love living through this period of great technologogical change, and a real downside of mortality is the things I will miss.
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Old 05-09-11, 02:03 PM   #11
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So, what's the future look like in 10, 20, 30, maybe 40 years?

For you?
I'm 66 and hope I'll still be riding in 10 years, maybe even in 20 years.

For bicycling in general? I hate to think about the changes. Things are changing too fast now.

Bicycling technology? Same as above.

Infrastructure? Hopefully better in some places but around here I don't see much changing or improving.

Any predictions? I WILL NOT win the lottery!!
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Old 05-09-11, 02:08 PM   #12
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For you? Retired

For bicycling in general? Marginal increase in bike share in my city.

Bicycling technology? Don't care. Bike tech peaked between 1985-90.

Infrastructure? More on-street lanes on main streets and marked bike routes through residential areas. Our city has a bike plan and lo and behold they seem to be implementing it.

Other? I think alternative energy sources will come to market. The car will exist much as it does today (2-11 passenger vehicles), but the motors will be different, either running on electricity, or pork rinds, or seaweed or something.
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Originally Posted by bragi "However, it's never a good idea to overgeneralize."
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Old 05-09-11, 02:26 PM   #13
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Hopefully, the cycling populace will realise that lugged steel if the perfect material to make bike frames from.
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Old 05-09-11, 02:55 PM   #14
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Bicycling technology? We are at the peak as far as efficiency is concerned. But more electric powered bikes and possibly solar powered units.
The thing about technology is that we always think we're at the peak until somebody finds a way to push the envelope. CVT transmissions and better belt drives are coming. Technology improvements don't have to be only about improving mechanical efficiency either - the next big thing might be equalling the efficiency that we have now but lots cheaper to produce. How about an injection molded bike frame? Maybe a monocot velocar that minimizes air drag. That's all just stuff that's under development now. I wonder what's going on in somebody's garage that no one else has ever thought about before.
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Old 05-09-11, 04:48 PM   #15
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Way too many questions - I am so confused...
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Old 05-09-11, 04:49 PM   #16
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Way too many questions - I am so confused...
OOps!!

I forgot this was the 50+ forum. Sorry.
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Old 05-09-11, 05:18 PM   #17
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10 years? 65 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. 20 years? 75 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. 30 years? 85 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. 40 years? 95 - Still working, not on medicare and no social security checks yet. Unless, of course, they fix social security without extending when you can collect. (Yeah sure)
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Old 05-10-11, 09:27 AM   #18
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I'm almost starting to buy into Kurzweil's predictions of a technological 'singularity', which would make life past that point radically different and impossible to predict
Ooh, I like that concept, an "historical event horizon". Most sci-fi writers probably detest it!
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Old 05-10-11, 11:23 AM   #19
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20 years? Some creature, as yet unknown by humans, will replace Denver as The Most Creative Thread Starter. In the meantime he will be remembered for posterity in the Guiness Book of Records. Assuming whatever replaces us can decipher english, that is.
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Old 05-10-11, 03:59 PM   #20
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I've been riding (non-stop) since age 4. That's 56 years! I started on a Schwinn something (remember the white and pink colors?)... graduated to all sorts of 10 speeds. I remember when I purchase my first real road bike, a Miyata (oooooohhh) 12 speed! Love the color (gold and brown). Rode it to death and sold it to a friend. I then bought a Specialize Expedition, the original Expedition, classic touring bike - 18 speed! I road it cross country 4 times. During the 80's I was really into cyclo-touring. I was a bit of a bohemian. Took a year off work and did the Centennial Trail.

Rode the Expedition (with down tubbe shifters) for alittle over 22 years. When I joined a bike club in 2002, I realized I needed to upgrade. I bought the Lemond Zurich (all steel before Trek ruined the bike) which has the current Shimano style shifters (9 speed). Took a while to get the hang of the new shifters and at first, I kept going back to the Expedition but eventually fell in love with my Lemond and rode it to death.

I am finally on what I hope is my last road bike... my Landshark, custom built steel, Shimano 10 speed with Sram XX 36 tooth cassette. Beautiful bike. Built to last I hope way into my 70's and hopefully my 80's.

Now talk about changes - I also ride mountain bikes. I started in 1985 with a Specialize Rockhopper (fully rigid steel), went through some hard tails and several full suspension bikes and am now riding a Santa Cruz Superlight upgraded to full XT components and Chris King wheels (the Landshark has CK wheels as well). Just bought a new shock and probably will have to get a new fork someday. I hope the bike last since I love it!

* * *

I have had a love affair with bikes most of my life. I hope with fuel prices, an emphasis on the environment etc, that cities and states start thinking more in terms of dedicated bike lanes and trails. Several of the cities around me have done just that. I can put together a 50 mile ride almost entirely on bike trails. What I think is sad is schools here no longer support bike programs and bike safety. Kids don't exercise... sad.
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Old 05-10-11, 04:14 PM   #21
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What I think is sad is schools here no longer support bike programs and bike safety. Kids don't exercise... sad.
www.BicycleColorado.org has implemented a school safety program, "Safe Routes to School" - might be a model for you folks (or perhaps they are following a national model) - anyway, check it out under "programs"
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Old 05-10-11, 04:15 PM   #22
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Riding with stoker Malkin. All the rest is speculation and falderall....
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Old 05-10-11, 05:14 PM   #23
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At 71, I hope to be bicycling for at least 20 more years, in some fashion or other. We will see lighter, stronger and cheaper bikes, and bikes built for the general public to more easily commute and get around - such as protection from the elements, cold, etc. There will be more "bike sharing" opportunities, kiosks and the like. Bikes will be combined with electrical (or other) power assists.

Dedicated bike paths/trails/routes will be more common. On MUVRS (multi vehicle roads) cars will be equipped with devices to warn them of bicycles in their paths, and bicycles will have electronic devices interacting with cars for safety reasons. Cars will be guided much like airplanes - it will be very difficult to have collisions as sensors and computers will take over the cars driving functions when the possibility occurs.
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Old 05-10-11, 06:16 PM   #24
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My guesses on bike evolution:

-Entry level bikes will be equipped with belt drives, non-pneumatic flat free tires and IGH when the costs of these features comes down; ideal for many casual riders who just want to hop on a bike that requires minimal maintenance and handles benign neglect well.

-Electrical assist will continue to increase in popularity, especially as batteries grow smaller and more efficient and the average age of the population increases.

-The first person or company that can offer a cheap CVT for bicycles (like the NuVinci hub) will do well.

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Old 05-11-11, 04:12 PM   #25
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It hurts my head to try and think what the future holds. I'll just take it a day at a time, and take it as it comes.
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