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Old 06-03-07, 12:27 PM   #1
phantomcow2
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What do you think the price of gas will be in...

1 year? 2 year?
Just an educated guess. I have been considering converting a POS with no engine to an all out EV. The cost will probably exceed 6,000 dollars, approaching 7000. Trying to do some math to find out when I would theoretically break even. I did my initial calculations based on 3 dollars a gallon, but the national average is above that now. I didn't take into account an increase in price over the future either. Anybody have a good guess of what it might be?
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Old 06-03-07, 12:30 PM   #2
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arm.

then leg.
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Old 06-03-07, 12:31 PM   #3
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I'm thinking much higher-maybe 4-4.50-or slightly lower 2.20ish.
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Old 06-03-07, 12:49 PM   #4
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Old 06-03-07, 12:52 PM   #5
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Well let's put it this way. I'm hiding the Trans Am in the garage, kind of a denial thing. I'm ready to get one of Michiganders rifles and do the right thing and shoot it in the gas tank. Ya know...put me outta misery.
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Old 06-03-07, 12:52 PM   #6
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Well, look at how it's changed over the last couple of years, and try to project that into the future. Of course in the last few years there have been some catastrophic events (katrina, iraq), which have changed gas prices.
I'd like to hear more about your project/progress if you ever go through with it, sounds interesting.
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Old 06-03-07, 12:55 PM   #7
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While the price goes up and down, the previous highs have the annoying habit of becoming the new lows.

There are just too many variables to make along term prediction much beyond saying it will cost more.
If we get a Dem Prez, and he really gets going on GW, that could easily knock the prices down some.

But world demand is growing, so don't expect a huge drop in the price...
But as a guesstimate, expect the price to go up a couple bucks every decade (not counting inflation) from here on out.

Of course, at some point we hit the knee of the log curve and the time between the jumps in the price gets cut in half every time the price jumps (again, just a rough guess). I expect that will happen in 25 years, give or take about 25 years. Did I mention it was a rough guess?
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Old 06-03-07, 12:56 PM   #8
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Price of a bike ...
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Old 06-03-07, 12:59 PM   #9
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Well, look at it this way-

7000 (cost for ev conversion) / 3.50 (gas price/gallon) is 2000 (gallons).

And if your current car gets 25mpg, thats about 50,000 miles of driving before the conversion pays off. That's a lot of driving.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:00 PM   #10
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High enough that it will make you change your driving habits ..

Where it is now, it isn't making me do anything different except piss and moan.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:00 PM   #11
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Siu, all you need is a moonshine still. Convert that baby to E85 and you can laugh all you want at 4 bucks a gallon.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:03 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonFixed
Well, look at it this way-

7000 (cost for ev conversion) / 3.50 (gas price/gallon) is 2000 (gallons).

And if your current car gets 25mpg, thats about 50,000 miles of driving before the conversion pays off. That's a lot of driving.
You also need to figure in the cost of recharging the batteries.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:04 PM   #13
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Quote:
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Siu, all you need is a moonshine still. Convert that baby to E85 and you can laugh all you want at 4 bucks a gallon.

I'm counting on you to build one for me.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:07 PM   #14
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Did someone say T/A + ethanol + blower? I need to find a dragstrip....
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Old 06-03-07, 01:09 PM   #15
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Blower?

Nah, Siu wouldn't want anything THAT cool. She's gotta keep it stock for collectability reasons.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:12 PM   #16
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Hey quit picking on me, Mich. It's just that I don't want to treat it bad and put all those things in it. It's hard on the motor. Gotta be nice to the car. I don't want to abuse it. Plus the older it gets, the less stock ones are around.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:12 PM   #17
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I didn't know people collected T/As.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:13 PM   #18
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There's a lot of things you don't know, Jon.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:16 PM   #19
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Clearly.

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Old 06-03-07, 01:16 PM   #20
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Where could you ever get a fresh 350 LT1???

Seriously, a turbo ain't too big of a deal. As far as I know, an LT1 can handle a fair amount of boost stock.

Of course, you don't race anymore, so it would be rather pointless.
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Old 06-03-07, 01:49 PM   #21
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- i wonder what the trade-in value of a hybrid will be when it's batteries need to be replaced?

- who will pay for the disposal/recycling fee?
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Old 06-03-07, 01:54 PM   #22
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It costs 2 thousand dollars to replace the battery of a Prius. The value of a hybrid with dead batteries is relative to the condition of the rest of the car.
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Old 06-03-07, 02:18 PM   #23
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Uncertaintly in hte middle East makes it pretty hard to accurately predict a price, so it seems by googling my question. My thoughts were to buy an "Advanced DC motor" 9" diameter, brushless. 28.5HP continuous duty @ 140V. ANd 100HP peak, good for 5 minutes at that speed.

Probably 10 deep cycle AMG batteries to give me 120v. A Curtis DC motor controller. In the interest of cost, unfortunately there will be no regenerative braking.
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Old 06-03-07, 02:32 PM   #24
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In defense of the hybrid batteries- They are usually warrantied for 8 years/80k miles. 3000 dollars over the course of 8 years is not that bad.

For my prospective electric vehicle, it may take a certain amount of years to pay off if you factor in only gas. Being electric though, it has a lot less parts to replace. Off the top of my head:
No engine oil
To air filter
No fuel filter
Timing belt
Water pump
Alternator

As for the cost of electricity, most people who I've seen do this report paying between 1.5-3 cents a mile. Right now I pay about 12 cents a mile. The best internal combustion engines I've seen are 40% efficient, the rest of the energy being converted to thermal. Minus another 5% for transmission loses, you are probably only getting 30-35% of the energy you put in actually move you forward. An electric motor of this size however, is usually over 90% efficient. Minus 5% for tranny loss, so I am probably getting 85% of the electrical energy I put in actually moving me.
The motor I plan to use can, at max given my controller , pull 400 amperes. I^2*R = heat production of electric motor.
It's so efficient that if I wanted my prospective EV to have heat, I would need to supply a separate electric heater.
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Old 06-03-07, 02:35 PM   #25
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to hell with gasoline. Diesel is where its at ive been eyeing a duramax engine since i saw one put out 800 BHP and get 20 miles to the gallon on a 4400lb ca now thats ball out power
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