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Thread: Odds of Dying

  1. #1
    Double Secret Probation R900's Avatar
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    Odds of Dying

    From the National Safety Council:

    Lifetime Odds of Dying

    Heart Disease (1 in 5)
    Cancer (1 in 7)
    Stroke (1 in 24)
    Motor Vehicle (1 in 84)
    Suicide (1 in 119)
    Falling (1 in 200)
    Firearm Assault (1 in 324)
    Drowning (1 in 1,140)
    Fire/Smoke (1 in 1,167)
    Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)
    Air/Space Accident (1 in 5,552)
    Lighting (1 in 81,949)
    Earthquake (1 in 125,655)
    Flood (1 in 171,348)
    Firework Discharge (1 in 1,884,832)
    Time to Ride...

  2. #2
    The Site Administrator: Currently at home recovering from a couple of strokes,please contact my assistnt admins for forum issues Tom Stormcrowe's Avatar
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    Missed one

    Odds of dying from an Asteroid Strike of sufficient size to qualify as a global scale civilization ender: 1:30,000
    on light duty due to illness; please contact my assistants for forum issues. They are Siu Blue Wind, or CbadRider or the other 3 star folk. I am currently at home recovering from a couple of strokes. I am making good progress, happily.


    . “He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.”- Fredrick Nietzsche

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    Senior Member cyclezealot's Avatar
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    Wonder what a space accident is? Like "Six feet under." A falling toilet crashing on the streets of Manhattan?

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    Non Tribuo Anus Rodentum and off to the next adventure (RIP) Stacey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyclezealot View Post
    Wonder what a space accident is? Like "Dead Like Me." A falling toilet crashing on the streets of Seattle?
    Fixed it for you.
    Last edited by Stacey; 11-25-07 at 08:10 AM.

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    Pedal pusher... alicestrong's Avatar
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    What are the odds that you will die?

    Yes
    May you live long, live strong, and live happy!

  6. #6
    Senior Member skiahh's Avatar
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    Missed the most basic one:

    Odds of dying: 1 in 1
    www.teamnavycycling.org
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    Double Secret Probation R900's Avatar
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    Point is: I'll keep riding my bike...
    Time to Ride...

  8. #8
    Mr. Maximan1 maximan1's Avatar
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    I can live for ever

    But wouldn't Flood be the same as Drowning

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    Senior Member shumacher's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Stormcrowe View Post
    Missed one

    Odds of dying from an Asteroid Strike of sufficient size to qualify as a global scale civilization ender: 1:30,000
    Man, I love statistics. That means that more people have died of civilization-ending asteroid strike than have died by lighting strike.

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    phony collective progress x136's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by skiahh View Post
    Odds of dying: approximately 1 in 1

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by skiahh View Post
    Missed the most basic one:

    Odds of dying: 1 in 1
    Mortals

  12. #12
    Tail End Charlie Ritehsedad's Avatar
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    I like Benjamin Franklin's philosophy. He decided that there were no rules that said that after turning 70 he couldn't start deducting years from his age, so at age 71 he said he was 69, etc.
    Why isn't 11 pronounced onety one?

  13. #13
    You Know!? For Kids! jsharr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by colorider View Post
    Phobias are for irrational fears. Fear of junk ripping badgers is perfectly rational. Those things are nasty.

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    Senior Member Mr. Gear Jammer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by R900 View Post
    From the National Safety Council:

    Lifetime Odds of Dying

    Heart Disease (1 in 5)
    Cancer (1 in 7)
    Stroke (1 in 24)
    Motor Vehicle (1 in 84)
    Suicide (1 in 119)
    Falling (1 in 200)
    Firearm Assault (1 in 324)
    Drowning (1 in 1,140)
    Fire/Smoke (1 in 1,167)
    Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)
    Air/Space Accident (1 in 5,552)
    Lighting (1 in 81,949)
    Earthquake (1 in 125,655)
    Flood (1 in 171,348)
    Firework Discharge (1 in 1,884,832)
    Their are a few of those that i might have a higher chance of dying of.
    Tropical pole vaulting is the shiznit.

  15. #15
    Your imaginary friend. fuzzbox's Avatar
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    They forgot obesity. My guess . . . Obesity 3:5

    Every passing minute is another chance to turn it all around.

  16. #16
    phony collective progress x136's Avatar
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    There's a nice electrical storm going, so I think I'm going to light my bike on fire, and ride down into the river by way of the most heavily congested roads I can find. Maybe I'll stop in for a deep-fried bucket of lard on the way, and pick up some fireworks...

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    Quote Originally Posted by R900 View Post
    From the National Safety Council:

    Lifetime Odds of Dying
    ...
    Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)
    ...
    Are those odds for bicycling for the population as a whole (non-cyclists included) or just for people who bicycle a significant amount (e.g. BikeForum participants)?

  18. #18
    Capoeirista
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    I wonder what the odds are of my neck getting broke with my other-favorite thing to do: martial arts.

  19. #19
    Master Surfer of Curbs glenng's Avatar
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    Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)

    Is that 1 in 4,472 cyclists or is that 1 in 4,472 out of the entire population. The difference is huge. I hope its 1 in 4,472 cyclists, if not we are screwed.
    Glenn

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    Senior Member permanentjaun's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by glenng View Post
    Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)

    Is that 1 in 4,472 cyclists or is that 1 in 4,472 out of the entire population. The difference is huge. I hope its 1 in 4,472 cyclists, if not we are screwed.
    Wouldn't we want it to be out of the population? If its out of the population then there are casual cyclists or people that will receive the Darwin Award.

  21. #21
    phony collective progress x136's Avatar
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    I bet they just took the number of cycling-related deaths in a year and compared it to the population of the United States the same year.

    Then again, they may have gotten their stats from the Institute Of Rectally-Produced Numberology.

  22. #22
    You Know!? For Kids! jsharr's Avatar
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    i made the numbers up when they called me by mistake.
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    Quote Originally Posted by colorider View Post
    Phobias are for irrational fears. Fear of junk ripping badgers is perfectly rational. Those things are nasty.

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    Using numbers below, 85,000,000 / 800 = 106,250 or 1 fatality for every 106,250 participants per year.
    The risk per year of NOT dying is (85,000,000 - 800)/85,000,000.

    If you bicycle for 50 years of your life and this chance of NOT dying is the same every year (doubtful), then roughly the risk NOT dying due to bicycle is this risk to the 50th power. Google's calculator gives:
    ((85 000 000 - 800) / 85 000 000)^50 = 0.99952952 or about 1 in 2,000. A properly done calculation (including possibility of dying of something else sooner, etc.) giving the stated 1 in 4,472 seems reasonable. But you have this risk largely only if you bicycle in the first place since the number of non-bicyclists killed by bicyclists is comparatively small and the number at risk larger.


    Per 2001 National Strategies for Advancing Bicycle Safety LINK
    "About 85 million adults and children ride their bikes every year.1 For children and teens, the bicycle is a primary means of transportation when traveling independently. Every morning an estimated half million people bike to work in the United States.2 However, injuries do occur. Each year, more than 500,000 bicyclists of all ages sustain a cycling injury that requires emergency department care.3 Of the approximately 800 bicyclists killed annually,4 about 750 are killed in traffic crashes.5"

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    Quote Originally Posted by lauren View Post
    Numbers are by total population.

    This makes it look like bicycles are safer than cars, when the reality is that there's a greater per mile risk on 2 wheels than on 4. It's just that there are SO many more miles done on 4 wheels that it just looks safer to bicycle without the proper analysis.
    That agrees with published risks I've seen. These also add that the risk per hour of the activity for bicycling is less than in a motor vehicle while the risk per mile is higher for bicycling. This in turn is used to compare the risks of commuting by bicycle vs motor vehicle (higher risk of death bicycling because per mile risk is more appropriate) in contrast to the recreational risks which are compared to the by hour risks (but how many people view being in a motor vehicle at any time as "recreation"?).

  25. #25
    Gorntastic! v1k1ng1001's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by R900 View Post
    Point is: I'll keep riding my bike...
    Yes, that is the obvious conclusion...I mean...uhm...what?

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