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Old 11-25-07, 07:15 AM   #1
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Odds of Dying

From the National Safety Council:

Lifetime Odds of Dying

Heart Disease (1 in 5)
Cancer (1 in 7)
Stroke (1 in 24)
Motor Vehicle (1 in 84)
Suicide (1 in 119)
Falling (1 in 200)
Firearm Assault (1 in 324)
Drowning (1 in 1,140)
Fire/Smoke (1 in 1,167)
Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)
Air/Space Accident (1 in 5,552)
Lighting (1 in 81,949)
Earthquake (1 in 125,655)
Flood (1 in 171,348)
Firework Discharge (1 in 1,884,832)
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Old 11-25-07, 07:22 AM   #2
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Missed one

Odds of dying from an Asteroid Strike of sufficient size to qualify as a global scale civilization ender: 1:30,000
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Old 11-25-07, 07:26 AM   #3
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Wonder what a space accident is? Like "Six feet under." A falling toilet crashing on the streets of Manhattan?
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Old 11-25-07, 09:01 AM   #4
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Wonder what a space accident is? Like "Dead Like Me." A falling toilet crashing on the streets of Seattle?
Fixed it for you.
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Old 11-25-07, 09:04 AM   #5
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What are the odds that you will die?

Yes
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Old 11-25-07, 09:09 AM   #6
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Missed the most basic one:

Odds of dying: 1 in 1
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Old 11-25-07, 11:53 AM   #7
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Point is: I'll keep riding my bike...
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Old 11-25-07, 12:03 PM   #8
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I can live for ever

But wouldn't Flood be the same as Drowning
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Old 11-25-07, 12:07 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Stormcrowe View Post
Missed one

Odds of dying from an Asteroid Strike of sufficient size to qualify as a global scale civilization ender: 1:30,000
Man, I love statistics. That means that more people have died of civilization-ending asteroid strike than have died by lighting strike.
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Old 11-25-07, 12:29 PM   #10
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Odds of dying: approximately 1 in 1
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Old 11-25-07, 12:56 PM   #11
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Missed the most basic one:

Odds of dying: 1 in 1
Mortals
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Old 11-25-07, 02:00 PM   #12
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I like Benjamin Franklin's philosophy. He decided that there were no rules that said that after turning 70 he couldn't start deducting years from his age, so at age 71 he said he was 69, etc.
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Old 11-25-07, 02:02 PM   #13
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I am not going to die.
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Originally Posted by colorider View Post
Phobias are for irrational fears. Fear of junk ripping badgers is perfectly rational. Those things are nasty.
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Old 11-25-07, 02:14 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by R900 View Post
From the National Safety Council:

Lifetime Odds of Dying

Heart Disease (1 in 5)
Cancer (1 in 7)
Stroke (1 in 24)
Motor Vehicle (1 in 84)
Suicide (1 in 119)
Falling (1 in 200)
Firearm Assault (1 in 324)
Drowning (1 in 1,140)
Fire/Smoke (1 in 1,167)
Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)
Air/Space Accident (1 in 5,552)
Lighting (1 in 81,949)
Earthquake (1 in 125,655)
Flood (1 in 171,348)
Firework Discharge (1 in 1,884,832)
Their are a few of those that i might have a higher chance of dying of.
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Old 11-25-07, 02:51 PM   #15
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They forgot obesity. My guess . . . Obesity 3:5
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Old 11-25-07, 02:57 PM   #16
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There's a nice electrical storm going, so I think I'm going to light my bike on fire, and ride down into the river by way of the most heavily congested roads I can find. Maybe I'll stop in for a deep-fried bucket of lard on the way, and pick up some fireworks...
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Old 11-25-07, 03:00 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by R900 View Post
From the National Safety Council:

Lifetime Odds of Dying
...
Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)
...
Are those odds for bicycling for the population as a whole (non-cyclists included) or just for people who bicycle a significant amount (e.g. BikeForum participants)?
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Old 11-25-07, 05:13 PM   #18
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I wonder what the odds are of my neck getting broke with my other-favorite thing to do: martial arts.
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Old 11-25-07, 05:29 PM   #19
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Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)

Is that 1 in 4,472 cyclists or is that 1 in 4,472 out of the entire population. The difference is huge. I hope its 1 in 4,472 cyclists, if not we are screwed.
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Old 11-25-07, 05:32 PM   #20
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Bicycle Accident (1 in 4,472)

Is that 1 in 4,472 cyclists or is that 1 in 4,472 out of the entire population. The difference is huge. I hope its 1 in 4,472 cyclists, if not we are screwed.
Wouldn't we want it to be out of the population? If its out of the population then there are casual cyclists or people that will receive the Darwin Award.
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Old 11-25-07, 05:32 PM   #21
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I bet they just took the number of cycling-related deaths in a year and compared it to the population of the United States the same year.

Then again, they may have gotten their stats from the Institute Of Rectally-Produced Numberology.
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Old 11-25-07, 05:42 PM   #22
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i made the numbers up when they called me by mistake.
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Quote:
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Phobias are for irrational fears. Fear of junk ripping badgers is perfectly rational. Those things are nasty.
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Old 11-25-07, 09:33 PM   #23
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Using numbers below, 85,000,000 / 800 = 106,250 or 1 fatality for every 106,250 participants per year.
The risk per year of NOT dying is (85,000,000 - 800)/85,000,000.

If you bicycle for 50 years of your life and this chance of NOT dying is the same every year (doubtful), then roughly the risk NOT dying due to bicycle is this risk to the 50th power. Google's calculator gives:
((85 000 000 - 800) / 85 000 000)^50 = 0.99952952 or about 1 in 2,000. A properly done calculation (including possibility of dying of something else sooner, etc.) giving the stated 1 in 4,472 seems reasonable. But you have this risk largely only if you bicycle in the first place since the number of non-bicyclists killed by bicyclists is comparatively small and the number at risk larger.


Per 2001 National Strategies for Advancing Bicycle Safety LINK
"About 85 million adults and children ride their bikes every year.1 For children and teens, the bicycle is a primary means of transportation when traveling independently. Every morning an estimated half million people bike to work in the United States.2 However, injuries do occur. Each year, more than 500,000 bicyclists of all ages sustain a cycling injury that requires emergency department care.3 Of the approximately 800 bicyclists killed annually,4 about 750 are killed in traffic crashes.5"
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Old 11-25-07, 09:43 PM   #24
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Quote:
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Numbers are by total population.

This makes it look like bicycles are safer than cars, when the reality is that there's a greater per mile risk on 2 wheels than on 4. It's just that there are SO many more miles done on 4 wheels that it just looks safer to bicycle without the proper analysis.
That agrees with published risks I've seen. These also add that the risk per hour of the activity for bicycling is less than in a motor vehicle while the risk per mile is higher for bicycling. This in turn is used to compare the risks of commuting by bicycle vs motor vehicle (higher risk of death bicycling because per mile risk is more appropriate) in contrast to the recreational risks which are compared to the by hour risks (but how many people view being in a motor vehicle at any time as "recreation"?).
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Old 11-25-07, 10:05 PM   #25
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Point is: I'll keep riding my bike...
Yes, that is the obvious conclusion...I mean...uhm...what?
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