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Old 01-30-09, 12:48 PM   #1
skinnyone
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For those looking to buy property now, some information to ponder




This is a long term chart...



Yeah...
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Old 01-30-09, 12:53 PM   #2
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so, predictions on it bottoming out? year or two? now?
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Old 01-30-09, 12:57 PM   #3
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Depends on the market. I've heard analysts saying the area I'm interested in will probably bottom out in the summer. However, there are plenty of wildcards out there and no one can say with certainty.
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Old 01-30-09, 01:01 PM   #4
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so, predictions on it bottoming out? year or two? now?
No idea... Not sure if the bailout will prop prices up either. Suffice it to say that I am not touching the housing market with a 10 foot pole anytime soon. Historically it looks like you by and large stay even with inflation so as long ad you are getting something out of your money, you can afford to wait and see without shooting for the bottom.
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Old 01-30-09, 01:04 PM   #5
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I'd like to see another 5% or so adjustment in prices before jumping into investment property. I don't put that kind of demand on a property I plan to live in for decades.
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Old 01-30-09, 01:30 PM   #6
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If you have a certain piece of property in mind you like, hire an attorney and buy it.

Otherwise, I'd hold off buying still, mainly because the market is not going to be heading up anytime soon. The TARP bailout only has allowed banks to have legendary parties at resorts, and zero help for people looking for a mortgage. The stimulus bill is held up in Congress along partisan lines, and when it does pass it only will positively affect people already working. So, don't expect much in economic improvements coming from government anytime soon.

My suggestion: Wait 6-9 months at a minimum before entering the real estate market to see if whatever package passes does anything to jump start the economy.
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Old 01-30-09, 02:10 PM   #7
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I agree with mlts22. Even with the steep declines, home prices are still out of whack with rents and average incomes in a lot of areas. In other words, they could still fall a long way before reaching equilibrium. Even if they don't crash any further, I highly doubt you are in danger of them spiking up again for quite a long time.

IMHO, you are better off missing the bottom slightly and buying when things are clearly back on an upward track again. At least that way, if something bad happens (like you lose your job...not exactly a rare occurrence these days), and you need to get out of the mortgage, you at least have some hope of being able to sell quickly and break even.
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Old 01-30-09, 02:28 PM   #8
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are you sure these graphs are from a reliable source?
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Old 01-30-09, 02:49 PM   #9
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I see skinny pulled them from a blog, but I'm pretty sure I have seen the same ones on some credible sites.
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Old 01-30-09, 02:57 PM   #10
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I see skinny pulled them from a blog, but I'm pretty sure I have seen the same ones on some credible sites.
I too have seen those graphs floating around for several years now. If you check out the blog listed on the chart, they say the numbers originate from Yale econ professor Robert Shiller, of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and "Irrational Exuberance" fame, so it should be credible. There's a link to his data in Excel format on his website here.
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Old 01-30-09, 03:40 PM   #11
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I knew I should've bought my house in 1921...
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Old 01-30-09, 03:45 PM   #12
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I knew I should've bought my house in 1921...
Slacker.

I bought mine in 1868.

Anyway, be back in a few. Headin' to the outhouse. *grabs newspaper*
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