Footballus vita est
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Portland, OR
Bikes: Trek 4500, Kona Dawg
I don't have a good big picture on the finances of China, but I very much doubt "1000 times worse than Dubai." A lot of people have been saying for the last 5+ years that Dubai was going to end up in trouble. I'm actually surprised how smoothly they seem to be taking it.
China has a lot of room to grow economically, so that even as exports fall, they're growing internal trade should help keep their economy on a relatively level keel. That said, there are a lot of pockets of overgrowth or over-investment remaining here and there, and I personally expect them to continue to burst one or two at at a time for the next several years. China will have to deal with dropping exports, and potentially with land overvaluation in their major cities.
The bubble I'm more concerned about is the US deficit and our hobby of printing money whenever things look tight. It's the folks who are warning against very strong inflation in 2-4 years' time that have me worried.
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