Cycling and bicycle discussion forums. 
   Click here to join our community Log in to access your Control Panel  


Go Back   > >

Foo Off-Topic chit chat with no general subject.

User Tag List

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 01-15-10, 03:25 PM   #1
bluevelo
beast mode
Thread Starter
 
bluevelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA
Bikes: Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
Posts: 44
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Californians: Prepare The Ark

I moved here in 2007. So I haven't experienced the joy of a Pineapple express - yet.

Here is a copy of the storm alert that was distributed by US Geological Survey/Pacific Science Center:

Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially.

Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned…
__________________
http://www.gretainthebox.com
bluevelo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 03:29 PM   #2
HardyWeinberg
GATC
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: south Puget Sound
Bikes:
Posts: 7,657
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 104 Post(s)
but it's warm
HardyWeinberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 03:29 PM   #3
HardyWeinberg
GATC
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: south Puget Sound
Bikes:
Posts: 7,657
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 104 Post(s)
a *wet* warm.
HardyWeinberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 04:14 PM   #4
USAZorro
Señor Member
 
USAZorro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Florence, KY
Bikes: 1954 Hetchins M.O., 1959 Viking Severn Valley, 1970 Raleigh Pro, 1972 Fuji "The Finest", 1974 Raleigh Superbe&Comp, 1976 Raleigh Team Pro, 1996 Giant Iguana, 2000 Bob Jackson Arrowhead
Posts: 14,574
Mentioned: 7 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 72 Post(s)
Big deal. The Colorado will flow to the sea for a couple weeks, and hills will stay green into May. Only worry if you're likely to be affected by mudslides.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
USAZorro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 04:21 PM   #5
caloso
Packfodding 3
 
caloso's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sacramento, California, USA
Bikes: Ridley Excalibur, Gazelle Champion Mondial, On-One Pompino, Specialized Rock Hopper
Posts: 34,111
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 250 Post(s)
On the plus side, Squaw Valley will be open until Independence Day.
caloso is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 04:23 PM   #6
UmneyDurak
RacingBear
 
UmneyDurak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: NorCal
Bikes:
Posts: 8,608
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 43 Post(s)
California needs all the rain we can get. Still sucks thought, trainer here I come! There is no freaken way I am riding in heavy rain before the sun is out. I am not that suicidal.
UmneyDurak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 04:24 PM   #7
UmneyDurak
RacingBear
 
UmneyDurak's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: NorCal
Bikes:
Posts: 8,608
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 43 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by caloso View Post
On the plus side, Squaw Valley will be open until Independence Day.
On the downside my new car can't handle chains.
UmneyDurak is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 05:10 PM   #8
bluevelo
beast mode
Thread Starter
 
bluevelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA
Bikes: Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
Posts: 44
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by UmneyDurak View Post
California needs all the rain we can get. Still sucks thought, trainer here I come! There is no freaken way I am riding in heavy rain before the sun is out. I am not that suicidal.
I've got a trainer and a stationary bike. I don't commute during the darker months because its just too easy to get run over, even with bike lanes here.
__________________
http://www.gretainthebox.com
bluevelo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 05:40 PM   #9
bigbenaugust 
always rides with luggage
 
bigbenaugust's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: KIGX
Bikes: 2009 Fantom CX, 2012 Fantom Cross Uno, Bakfiets
Posts: 1,995
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 24 Post(s)
Fie on their report! I will ride through whatever the weatherman sends my way.
__________________
--Ben
Carrboro Bike Coalition - putting the "bike" in "CARrboro" :)
2011 Motobecane Fantom Cross Uno, 2009 Motobecane Fantom CX, and a Bakfiets
Previously: 2000 Trek 4500 (2000-2003), 2003 Novara Randonee (2003-2006), 2003 Giant Rainier (2003-2008), 2005 Xootr Swift (2005-2007), 2007 Nashbar 1x9 (2007-2011), 2011 Windsor Shetland (2011-2014), 2008 Citizen Folder (2015)
Non-Bike hardware: Xubuntu / Ubuntu MATE / Mac OS 10.6 / Android 4.4 / CyanogenMod 13
bigbenaugust is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 05:43 PM   #10
JoelS
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Near Sacramento
Bikes:
Posts: 4,890
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
*sigh* Good bye sun. I'll see you again after this mess. Maybe I can get my hernia surgery scheduled during this wet period.
__________________
-------

Some sort of pithy irrelevant one-liner should go here.
JoelS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 06:10 PM   #11
caloso
Packfodding 3
 
caloso's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sacramento, California, USA
Bikes: Ridley Excalibur, Gazelle Champion Mondial, On-One Pompino, Specialized Rock Hopper
Posts: 34,111
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 250 Post(s)
Yeah, I went out at lunch to do some tempo on the ARBT. There was a hint of sun. Now nothing but gray and it's looking quite dark to the west.
caloso is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 06:15 PM   #12
bluevelo
beast mode
Thread Starter
 
bluevelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA
Bikes: Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
Posts: 44
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by caloso View Post
Yeah, I went out at lunch to do some tempo on the ARBT. There was a hint of sun. Now nothing but gray and it's looking quite dark to the west.
Dude, good chance we've passed each other at least once... if you see a short guy on a 'titanite black' 2003 2200 Trek, that's meeeeeeeeeee.... I think I have the only one I've seen on the trail...

__________________
http://www.gretainthebox.com
bluevelo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 06:21 PM   #13
bluevelo
beast mode
Thread Starter
 
bluevelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA
Bikes: Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
Posts: 44
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by UmneyDurak View Post
On the downside my new car can't handle chains.
I'm more worried, living 5 miles out from downtown Sacramento and about 2 1/2 miles south of the American River that the levees are going to break and flood the entire city, which will DEFINITELY screw up my and the GF's cars.
__________________
http://www.gretainthebox.com
bluevelo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 06:50 PM   #14
overthehillmedi
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Nanaimo.B.C. The We't coast of Canada
Bikes:
Posts: 1,287
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Wimps,my rain gauge said we got over an inch and a half of rain yesterday between 2000 and 0900 this a.m., you don't see me building no Ark.
overthehillmedi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-10, 07:06 PM   #15
caloso
Packfodding 3
 
caloso's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Sacramento, California, USA
Bikes: Ridley Excalibur, Gazelle Champion Mondial, On-One Pompino, Specialized Rock Hopper
Posts: 34,111
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 250 Post(s)
Yeah, but you probably don't live in a flood plain behind a system of levees and weirs built by the Army Corps of Engineers....
caloso is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 12:01 AM   #16
bluevelo
beast mode
Thread Starter
 
bluevelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA
Bikes: Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
Posts: 44
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by caloso View Post
Yeah, but you probably don't live in a flood plain behind a system of levees and weirs built by the Army Corps of Engineers....
And Sacramento is actually more flood-prone than New Orleans, our only advantage is we don't sit on a swamp next to the ocean. It could be *bad*.
__________________
http://www.gretainthebox.com
bluevelo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 12:10 AM   #17
CbadRider
Administrator
 
CbadRider's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: On the bridge with Picard
Bikes: Specialized Allez, Specialized Sirrus
Posts: 5,962
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5 Post(s)
The weather prognosticators haven't been right in years. We could use the rain, but this winter hasn't really had the El Nino effect the forecasters were predicting. Rain is predicted for Mon - Wed in SoCal next week. I'll believe it when I see it.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xerum 525 View Post
Now get on your cheap bike and give me a double century. You walking can of Crisco!!

Forum Guidelines *click here*
CbadRider is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 12:30 AM   #18
bluevelo
beast mode
Thread Starter
 
bluevelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA
Bikes: Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
Posts: 44
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by CbadRider View Post
The weather prognosticators haven't been right in years. We could use the rain, but this winter hasn't really had the El Nino effect the forecasters were predicting. Rain is predicted for Mon - Wed in SoCal next week. I'll believe it when I see it.
That's what my GF says, and she grew up here (moved to California from Kansas when she was 3 days old).
__________________
http://www.gretainthebox.com
bluevelo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 12:41 AM   #19
Siu Blue Wind
Flowers for mom
 
Siu Blue Wind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Bikes:
Posts: 11,017
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 160 Post(s)
Will water wings help?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buddha
We are what we think. All that we are arises with our thoughts. With our thoughts, we make the world.
Quote:
Originally Posted by making View Post
Please dont outsmart the censor. That is a very expensive censor and every time one of you guys outsmart it it makes someone at the home office feel bad. We dont wanna do that. So dont cleverly disguise bad words.
Siu Blue Wind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 01:04 AM   #20
GP 
Senior Member
 
GP's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Bikes:
Posts: 7,587
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 10 Post(s)
Of course it's going to rain. I have a holiday weekend and washed my car yesterday.
GP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 01:23 AM   #21
Siu Blue Wind
Flowers for mom
 
Siu Blue Wind's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Bikes:
Posts: 11,017
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 160 Post(s)
So it's YOUR fault.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buddha
We are what we think. All that we are arises with our thoughts. With our thoughts, we make the world.
Quote:
Originally Posted by making View Post
Please dont outsmart the censor. That is a very expensive censor and every time one of you guys outsmart it it makes someone at the home office feel bad. We dont wanna do that. So dont cleverly disguise bad words.
Siu Blue Wind is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 03:59 AM   #22
gitarzan
Lost Again
 
gitarzan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Columbus, Oh!
Bikes: Soma Saga, 1991 Sirrus, Specialized Secteur Elite, Miele Umbria Elite.
Posts: 1,041
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Weren't you Cali's complaining about drought a year ago?
gitarzan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 08:50 AM   #23
bigbenaugust 
always rides with luggage
 
bigbenaugust's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: KIGX
Bikes: 2009 Fantom CX, 2012 Fantom Cross Uno, Bakfiets
Posts: 1,995
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 24 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gitarzan View Post
Weren't you Cali's complaining about drought a year ago?
We always complain about drought. It's in the state constitution.
__________________
--Ben
Carrboro Bike Coalition - putting the "bike" in "CARrboro" :)
2011 Motobecane Fantom Cross Uno, 2009 Motobecane Fantom CX, and a Bakfiets
Previously: 2000 Trek 4500 (2000-2003), 2003 Novara Randonee (2003-2006), 2003 Giant Rainier (2003-2008), 2005 Xootr Swift (2005-2007), 2007 Nashbar 1x9 (2007-2011), 2011 Windsor Shetland (2011-2014), 2008 Citizen Folder (2015)
Non-Bike hardware: Xubuntu / Ubuntu MATE / Mac OS 10.6 / Android 4.4 / CyanogenMod 13
bigbenaugust is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 09:22 AM   #24
bluevelo
beast mode
Thread Starter
 
bluevelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Sacramento, CA
Bikes: Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
Posts: 44
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
And mudslides, earthquakes, fire, heat waves, illegal immigration... its always something.
__________________
http://www.gretainthebox.com
bluevelo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-10, 09:45 AM   #25
USAZorro
Señor Member
 
USAZorro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Florence, KY
Bikes: 1954 Hetchins M.O., 1959 Viking Severn Valley, 1970 Raleigh Pro, 1972 Fuji "The Finest", 1974 Raleigh Superbe&Comp, 1976 Raleigh Team Pro, 1996 Giant Iguana, 2000 Bob Jackson Arrowhead
Posts: 14,574
Mentioned: 7 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 72 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluevelo View Post
And mudslides, earthquakes, fire, heat waves, illegal immigration... its always something.
Yet you live there. I had the sense to leave in '92, after a couple years of trying to get out.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
USAZorro is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:29 PM.