Advertise on Bikeforums.net



User Tag List

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 40
  1. #1
    beast mode bluevelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Sacramento, CA
    My Bikes
    Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
    Posts
    43
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)

    Californians: Prepare The Ark

    I moved here in 2007. So I haven't experienced the joy of a Pineapple express - yet.

    Here is a copy of the storm alert that was distributed by US Geological Survey/Pacific Science Center:

    Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially.

    Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

    This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

    In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

    In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned…

  2. #2
    GATC
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    south Puget Sound
    Posts
    6,617
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    but it's warm

  3. #3
    GATC
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Location
    south Puget Sound
    Posts
    6,617
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    a *wet* warm.

  4. #4
    Señor Member USAZorro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Carlisle, PA
    My Bikes
    1954 Hetchins M.O., 1959 Viking Severn Valley, 1970 Raleigh Pro, 1972 Fuji "The Finest", 1974 Raleigh Superbe&Comp, 1976 Raleigh Team Pro, 1994 Trek 830 MTB, 2000 Bob Jackson Arrowhead, Unicycle
    Posts
    13,034
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Big deal. The Colorado will flow to the sea for a couple weeks, and hills will stay green into May. Only worry if you're likely to be affected by mudslides.
    The search for inner peace continues...

  5. #5
    Packfodding 3 caloso's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Sacramento, California, USA
    My Bikes
    Ridley Excalibur, Gazelle Champion Mondial, On-One Pompino, Specialized Rock Hopper
    Posts
    30,176
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    On the plus side, Squaw Valley will be open until Independence Day.
    Cyclists of the world, unite! You have nothing to lube but your chains!

  6. #6
    RacingBear UmneyDurak's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    NorCal
    Posts
    8,181
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    California needs all the rain we can get. Still sucks thought, trainer here I come! There is no freaken way I am riding in heavy rain before the sun is out. I am not that suicidal.
    I see hills.... Bring them on!!!
    Stay calm and bring a towel.

  7. #7
    RacingBear UmneyDurak's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    NorCal
    Posts
    8,181
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by caloso View Post
    On the plus side, Squaw Valley will be open until Independence Day.
    On the downside my new car can't handle chains.
    I see hills.... Bring them on!!!
    Stay calm and bring a towel.

  8. #8
    beast mode bluevelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Sacramento, CA
    My Bikes
    Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
    Posts
    43
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by UmneyDurak View Post
    California needs all the rain we can get. Still sucks thought, trainer here I come! There is no freaken way I am riding in heavy rain before the sun is out. I am not that suicidal.
    I've got a trainer and a stationary bike. I don't commute during the darker months because its just too easy to get run over, even with bike lanes here.

  9. #9
    derailleurs are overrated bigbenaugust's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    KIGX
    My Bikes
    2009 Motobecane Fantom CX, 2012 Motobecane Fantom Cross Uno SSCX
    Posts
    1,743
    Mentioned
    2 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Fie on their report! I will ride through whatever the weatherman sends my way.
    --Ben
    Carrboro Bike Coalition - putting the "bike" in "CARrboro" :)
    2011 Motobecane Fantom Cross Uno, 2009 Motobecane Fantom CX
    Previously: 2000 Trek 4500 (2000-2003), 2003 Novara Randonee (2003-2006), 2003 Giant Rainier (2003-2008), 2005 Xootr Swift (2005-2007), 2007 Nashbar 1x9 (2007-2011), 2011 Windsor Shetland (2011-2014)
    Current Linux Usage (by machine): Arch: I openSUSE: III

  10. #10
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Near Sacramento
    Posts
    4,875
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    *sigh* Good bye sun. I'll see you again after this mess. Maybe I can get my hernia surgery scheduled during this wet period.
    -------

    Some sort of pithy irrelevant one-liner should go here.

  11. #11
    Packfodding 3 caloso's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Sacramento, California, USA
    My Bikes
    Ridley Excalibur, Gazelle Champion Mondial, On-One Pompino, Specialized Rock Hopper
    Posts
    30,176
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Yeah, I went out at lunch to do some tempo on the ARBT. There was a hint of sun. Now nothing but gray and it's looking quite dark to the west.
    Cyclists of the world, unite! You have nothing to lube but your chains!

  12. #12
    beast mode bluevelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Sacramento, CA
    My Bikes
    Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
    Posts
    43
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by caloso View Post
    Yeah, I went out at lunch to do some tempo on the ARBT. There was a hint of sun. Now nothing but gray and it's looking quite dark to the west.
    Dude, good chance we've passed each other at least once... if you see a short guy on a 'titanite black' 2003 2200 Trek, that's meeeeeeeeeee.... I think I have the only one I've seen on the trail...


  13. #13
    beast mode bluevelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Sacramento, CA
    My Bikes
    Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
    Posts
    43
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by UmneyDurak View Post
    On the downside my new car can't handle chains.
    I'm more worried, living 5 miles out from downtown Sacramento and about 2 1/2 miles south of the American River that the levees are going to break and flood the entire city, which will DEFINITELY screw up my and the GF's cars.

  14. #14
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Nanaimo.B.C. The We't coast of Canada
    Posts
    1,287
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Wimps,my rain gauge said we got over an inch and a half of rain yesterday between 2000 and 0900 this a.m., you don't see me building no Ark.

  15. #15
    Packfodding 3 caloso's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Sacramento, California, USA
    My Bikes
    Ridley Excalibur, Gazelle Champion Mondial, On-One Pompino, Specialized Rock Hopper
    Posts
    30,176
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Yeah, but you probably don't live in a flood plain behind a system of levees and weirs built by the Army Corps of Engineers....
    Cyclists of the world, unite! You have nothing to lube but your chains!

  16. #16
    beast mode bluevelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Sacramento, CA
    My Bikes
    Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
    Posts
    43
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by caloso View Post
    Yeah, but you probably don't live in a flood plain behind a system of levees and weirs built by the Army Corps of Engineers....
    And Sacramento is actually more flood-prone than New Orleans, our only advantage is we don't sit on a swamp next to the ocean. It could be *bad*.

  17. #17
    Administrator CbadRider's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    On the bridge with Picard
    My Bikes
    Specialized Allez, Specialized Sirrus
    Posts
    5,836
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    The weather prognosticators haven't been right in years. We could use the rain, but this winter hasn't really had the El Nino effect the forecasters were predicting. Rain is predicted for Mon - Wed in SoCal next week. I'll believe it when I see it.
    Quote Originally Posted by toddles View Post
    So Tom only hires people that are nutty? Is part of the requirement to be a moderator on this site is that you have to be nuts??
    Forum Guidelines *click here*

  18. #18
    beast mode bluevelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Sacramento, CA
    My Bikes
    Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
    Posts
    43
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by CbadRider View Post
    The weather prognosticators haven't been right in years. We could use the rain, but this winter hasn't really had the El Nino effect the forecasters were predicting. Rain is predicted for Mon - Wed in SoCal next week. I'll believe it when I see it.
    That's what my GF says, and she grew up here (moved to California from Kansas when she was 3 days old).

  19. #19
    Hey guyz? Guyz? Wait up!! Siu Blue Wind's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    10,540
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Will water wings help?
    Quote Originally Posted by Buddha
    We are what we think. All that we are arises with our thoughts. With our thoughts, we make the world.
    Quote Originally Posted by making View Post
    Please dont outsmart the censor. That is a very expensive censor and every time one of you guys outsmart it it makes someone at the home office feel bad. We dont wanna do that. So dont cleverly disguise bad words.

  20. #20
    Senior Member GP's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Posts
    7,219
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Of course it's going to rain. I have a holiday weekend and washed my car yesterday.

  21. #21
    Hey guyz? Guyz? Wait up!! Siu Blue Wind's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Posts
    10,540
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    So it's YOUR fault.
    Quote Originally Posted by Buddha
    We are what we think. All that we are arises with our thoughts. With our thoughts, we make the world.
    Quote Originally Posted by making View Post
    Please dont outsmart the censor. That is a very expensive censor and every time one of you guys outsmart it it makes someone at the home office feel bad. We dont wanna do that. So dont cleverly disguise bad words.

  22. #22
    Mystery Meat gitarzan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Columbus, Oh!
    My Bikes
    Soma Saga, 1991 Sirrus, Specialized Secteur Elite, Miele Umbria Elite.
    Posts
    1,035
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Weren't you Cali's complaining about drought a year ago?

  23. #23
    derailleurs are overrated bigbenaugust's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    KIGX
    My Bikes
    2009 Motobecane Fantom CX, 2012 Motobecane Fantom Cross Uno SSCX
    Posts
    1,743
    Mentioned
    2 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by gitarzan View Post
    Weren't you Cali's complaining about drought a year ago?
    We always complain about drought. It's in the state constitution.
    --Ben
    Carrboro Bike Coalition - putting the "bike" in "CARrboro" :)
    2011 Motobecane Fantom Cross Uno, 2009 Motobecane Fantom CX
    Previously: 2000 Trek 4500 (2000-2003), 2003 Novara Randonee (2003-2006), 2003 Giant Rainier (2003-2008), 2005 Xootr Swift (2005-2007), 2007 Nashbar 1x9 (2007-2011), 2011 Windsor Shetland (2011-2014)
    Current Linux Usage (by machine): Arch: I openSUSE: III

  24. #24
    beast mode bluevelo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Sacramento, CA
    My Bikes
    Trek 2200, K2 Firebird
    Posts
    43
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    And mudslides, earthquakes, fire, heat waves, illegal immigration... its always something.

  25. #25
    Señor Member USAZorro's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Carlisle, PA
    My Bikes
    1954 Hetchins M.O., 1959 Viking Severn Valley, 1970 Raleigh Pro, 1972 Fuji "The Finest", 1974 Raleigh Superbe&Comp, 1976 Raleigh Team Pro, 1994 Trek 830 MTB, 2000 Bob Jackson Arrowhead, Unicycle
    Posts
    13,034
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)
    Tagged
    0 Thread(s)
    Quote Originally Posted by bluevelo View Post
    And mudslides, earthquakes, fire, heat waves, illegal immigration... its always something.
    Yet you live there. I had the sense to leave in '92, after a couple years of trying to get out.
    The search for inner peace continues...

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •