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Thread: I'm not

  1. #1
    Peloton Dog patentcad's Avatar
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    I'm not

    Wary of stocks that is. Our portfolios are all back to their pre-crash highs. September was very good to me. CAT, MO, VZ, APPL, MCD HD, F, BRCM and a few others have really worked this year. Ironically, some of the stocks (MCD, VZ, MO) I bought as a pure dividend play, companies with lower volatility in their share price, those have really rocked since I bought them between April and June. Verizon up 26%, Altria up 22% in a few months. That will pop your annual return.

    Stocks are still cheap. Of course if somebody lights up a nuclear device in Times Square the S&P will shave 20% in a day, while the money in your mattress will not shrink. So it goes.

    Hey, this has worked for me for nearly a decade. Average annal returns that range from 10-18% in our various accounts. And that through the worst stock market crash and selloff since 1929. I piled into more stocks in March of last year. I figured that while it was a scary time to buy equities, they were so cheap that if they actually sold off much more we'd have much bigger worries than what our 401K's are worth. Like Mad Max stuff. In which case it wouldn't matter.

  2. #2
    (((Fully Awake))) Serendipper's Avatar
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    You don't have a blog, do you?
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  3. #3
    Administrator Allen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serendipper View Post
    You don't have a blog, do you?
    bikeforums.net
    ^^^^^
    Yes he does.

  4. #4
    Peloton Dog patentcad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Serendipper View Post
    You don't have a clue, do you?
    Fixed.

    Correct.

  5. #5
    (((Fully Awake))) Serendipper's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by patentcad View Post
    Fixed.

    Correct.


    Don't be so self depreciating. Of course you have a clue. And now, you have a blog. And a drooling audience.
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  6. #6
    Administrator CbadRider's Avatar
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    My 401k, which has had a negative return for the most part of 2010, is now showing a return of +7% for the year.
    Quote Originally Posted by toddles View Post
    So Tom only hires people that are nutty? Is part of the requirement to be a moderator on this site is that you have to be nuts??
    Forum Guidelines *click here*

  7. #7
    Peloton Dog patentcad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CbadRider View Post
    My 401k, which has had a negative return for the most part of 2010, is now showing a return of +7% for the year.
    There you go.

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    Senior Member DannoXYZ's Avatar
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    Heh, heh.. for some fun, take a look at cotton and coffee futures & options. E-minis have been going crazy this past month as well.

  9. #9
    Senior Member jdon's Avatar
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    Of stocks, mutual funds and real estate, the latter has been the winner overall for me.
    Quote Originally Posted by maddmaxx View Post
    How are you ever going to live in the real world if you can't get along with people who don't believe what your do?

  10. #10
    Peloton Dog patentcad's Avatar
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    It's not like the old days. You do have to pay attention. Almost daily. It's rough out there. If you can't monitor your accounts and have access to it to move things around, it's more stressful.

  11. #11
    K2ProFlex baby! ilikebikes's Avatar
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    My response would have been something along the lines of: "Does your bike have computer controlled suspension? Then shut your piehole, this baby is from the future!"
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    Quote Originally Posted by patentcad View Post
    Wary of stocks that is. Our portfolios are all back to their pre-crash highs. September was very good to me. CAT, MO, VZ, APPL, MCD HD, F, BRCM and a few others have really worked this year. Ironically, some of the stocks (MCD, VZ, MO) I bought as a pure dividend play, companies with lower volatility in their share price, those have really rocked since I bought them between April and June. Verizon up 26%, Altria up 22% in a few months. That will pop your annual return.

    Stocks are still cheap. Of course if somebody lights up a nuclear device in Times Square the S&P will shave 20% in a day, while the money in your mattress will not shrink. So it goes.

    Hey, this has worked for me for nearly a decade. Average annal returns that range from 10-18% in our various accounts. And that through the worst stock market crash and selloff since 1929. I piled into more stocks in March of last year. I figured that while it was a scary time to buy equities, they were so cheap that if they actually sold off much more we'd have much bigger worries than what our 401K's are worth. Like Mad Max stuff. In which case it wouldn't matter.
    I invested 1.5 mil in GE and get back $7000.00 a month for 30 years. Is that a good investment?
    You see, their morals, their code...it's a bad joke, dropped at the first sign of trouble. They're only as good as the world allows them to be. I'll show you. When the chips are down, these...These "civilized" people...they'll eat each other. See, I'm not a monster. I'm just ahead of the curve

  12. #12
    Peloton Dog patentcad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ilikebikes View Post
    I invested 1.5 mil in GE and get back $7000.00 a month for 30 years. Is that a good investment?
    Sell the GE and invest in Pcad's Pyramid Scheme.

  13. #13
    K2ProFlex baby! ilikebikes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by patentcad View Post
    Sell the GE and invest in Pcad's Pyramid Scheme.
    ! No.
    You see, their morals, their code...it's a bad joke, dropped at the first sign of trouble. They're only as good as the world allows them to be. I'll show you. When the chips are down, these...These "civilized" people...they'll eat each other. See, I'm not a monster. I'm just ahead of the curve

  14. #14
    Look! My Spine! RubenX's Avatar
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    You don't "have to" check your investments daily.... but if you don't, you are not allow to cry like a girl when you loose money or under-perform.

    I've seen people saying: "if I put a dollar and my employer matches that dollar, and then it's 2 dollars, it will have to go down %50 before I really lose a penny of MY money". if you are one of those, oh well.

    I have nothing invested now... what's left is in US Bonds :S so I don't check it too much. But if I had anything above 2k I would check it daily... multiple times a day, watch the news, read the sites, even read shareholder's communications in full... etc
    "Hoy es un dia normal, pero yo voy a hacerlo intenso" ~ Juanes

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    Senior Member billh92109's Avatar
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    Pcad your joking right?

    -First of all I am not a registered advisor of any sort, so take my words as meaningless drivel and accept the fact that this is NOT advice, it is my opinion. It happens to be based on watching and reading about the markets and econ for 1-3 hours a day for over five years. For reference, I knew the initial crash was coming and was able to get my family out beforehand a few years ago near the top.

    I've been daytrading and watching the markets for over five years. You're about to get smoked hard IMHO. The large commercials are fading this move *hard*, and the entire real estate complex is in danger of grinding to a halt over fraud and legal issues. At the very LEAST if I had a large chunk in stocks right now I would hedge in some way OR sell, hold cash in short term T's and wait at least until elections are over, maybe longer.

    Just my 2c. This is not an investment board - if you want one go to tickerforum.org. <--- again just my opinion.

    Be careful out there.

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    Senior Member DannoXYZ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by billh92109 View Post
    I've been daytrading and watching the markets for over five years. You're about to get smoked hard IMHO. The large commercials are fading this move *hard*, and the entire real estate complex is in danger of grinding to a halt over fraud and legal issues. At the very LEAST if I had a large chunk in stocks right now I would hedge in some way OR sell, hold cash in short term T's and wait at least until elections are over, maybe longer.
    Uh... if you've been watching the market for 5-years, you would've seen the real-estate crash coming for at least 2-3 years ahead. I just wished there was a way I could've shorted real-estate.

  17. #17
    Look! My Spine! RubenX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DannoXYZ View Post
    Uh... if you've been watching the market for 5-years, you would've seen the real-estate crash coming for at least 2-3 years ahead. I just wished there was a way I could've shorted real-estate.
    I saw it coming, but instead of watching the markets, I was watching the home prices on the newspaper classifieds. They were going up, steady, at a faster rate than the average Joe could get pay increases. Ergo, every year, the same house, was less affordable for the average Joe.
    "Hoy es un dia normal, pero yo voy a hacerlo intenso" ~ Juanes

  18. #18
    Senior Member billh92109's Avatar
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    yes it was clear when Greenie started jacking up rates 04-05 that housing was done... It took another year or two to top out. I sold my home Late Summer '06, just in the nick of time. I feel sorry for the guy that bought it from me, honestly. I was talking about getting my family out of stocks, not real estate...

  19. #19
    Peloton Dog patentcad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by billh92109 View Post
    Pcad your joking right?

    -First of all I am not a registered advisor of any sort, so take my words as meaningless drivel and accept the fact that this is NOT advice, it is my opinion. It happens to be based on watching and reading about the markets and econ for 1-3 hours a day for over five years. For reference, I knew the initial crash was coming and was able to get my family out beforehand a few years ago near the top.

    I've been daytrading and watching the markets for over five years. You're about to get smoked hard IMHO. The large commercials are fading this move *hard*, and the entire real estate complex is in danger of grinding to a halt over fraud and legal issues. At the very LEAST if I had a large chunk in stocks right now I would hedge in some way OR sell, hold cash in short term T's and wait at least until elections are over, maybe longer.

    Just my 2c. This is not an investment board - if you want one go to tickerforum.org. <--- again just my opinion.

    Be careful out there.

    If you hadn't noticed, the entire RE complex ground to a halt a couple of years ago. That's priced into this market already.

    The actual outcome always winds up somewhere between the chicken little talk ('you're about to get smoked') and the blue sky dreamers ('this is the beginning of the next great bull market'). Dividend paying best of breed American firms with solid balance sheets are hard to get burned with in the long run, because the effective dividend yield (2-6% currently on a broad range of high quality companies from Verizon to Caterpillar) pays you while you wait, even after a crash. If you re-invest in company shares, when the market recovers (always does, even if it takes 5-7 years), you're in great shape.

    That has been my approach for nearly a decade, and seeing how my money has weathered the worst crash since 1929, I'm ok with where I'm invested at the moment. But I doubt I'd ride it down if it looked that spooky. I watch it daily.

    The flip side to your legitimate fear or paranoia (depends who you ask which it is) is that it keeps you out of equities that overall have been where the returns are for investors. The retail investor hasn't been spooked this bad since the early 1930's, and it shows in the lower trading volumes for stocks over the past year. Mom and pop investor are in bonds and cash. Which amplifies the long term fallout from this downturn for many investors, since they sold at the bottom, and now they're getting next to nothing on their savings and bond holdings. In the meantime, our holdings have increased by 150% since the bottom, so we've recovered. So far.

    So it goes.
    Last edited by patentcad; 10-10-10 at 04:17 AM.

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