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Old 01-17-11, 12:11 PM   #1
stonecrd
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Steve Jobs - The End?

Well just announced that SJ is taking another leave of absence for health reasons. Does not sound like good news for SJ and timed on a market close day. Tomorrow will be an interesting day in the market, not sure what I am going to do with my AAPL, still a strong business but it will sell off tomorrow.

Good luck SJ

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41118102
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Old 01-17-11, 03:07 PM   #2
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He's taken a leave of absence before and the company did not crash and burn. I'm not selling my stock yet.
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Old 01-17-11, 06:11 PM   #3
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BUY! BUY! BUY!

People say a lot about Steve and his direction to produce pretty products, but if he leaves and the company eventually migrates more towards mainstream products they will increase their market share.

My example is the Ford Thunderbird. In 1957 it was a unique 2-seat vehicle, with very little competition. The next year they made it a 4-door, more similar to other models on the market, and doubled their sales from the previous year.
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Old 01-17-11, 06:32 PM   #4
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I think Steve's end is nearer rather than farther. Not sure what it'll mean for Apple.
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Old 01-17-11, 06:52 PM   #5
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I think he's hanging out with L. Ron Hubbard and Lyndon Larouche on a tropical island somewhere, laughing at all the rubes.
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Old 01-17-11, 10:08 PM   #6
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Not sure what it'll mean for Apple.
Apple stock might dip at first, but the company is very busy, and with the potential sales through Verizon, and new products to be introduced for ATT, their revenue should go up with stock prices to follow.
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Old 01-17-11, 10:34 PM   #7
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The stock will sell off $20-$25/share at the open. By mid morning to lunchtime it will start rebounding as every hedge fund and mutual fund manager in NY who is kicking themselves for not being long APPL start to pile in. By the close tomorrow the stock will be off $10-$15 share from the closing price Friday ($348). Then tomorrow night they announce their quarterly results (I anticipate the Mother of All Blowouts) and that won't hurt the stock. But you never know with quarterly calls, one hint of disappointment can be used as an excuse to take profits. But the selloff tomorrow will mitigate some of that.

I'm not in APPL for what happens tomorrow. I'm in the stock because I think 12-18 months hence it's a $425-$450 stock. And Jobs' health won't really impact that, the company's game plan is locked in for that time period now, as is their growth. The potential impact of Steve leaving Apple? That's longer term, they would miss his amazing vision. I am however very confident in T. Cook taking the reins and in the team at Apple. I have a substantial position in APPL and I am unconcerned. It's a company that's approaching $100 billion in annual sales. They are better off in many ways not having their market value hanging on one mortal human being who is one plane crash, illness or mishap away from eternity (as are we all). And nobody understands that better than Mr. Jobs.

For all we know he's using this as a way to bow out when the company can most easily absorb the news; the day before they announce their best quarter ever. Not for nothing, but after his last medical leave, people and Wall Street got used to him being gone, and I think the Jobs Factor was largely neutralized with respect to the stock value.

That's business. I admire Jobs as a visionary and business person, and I really hope he gets his health back soon. The world would sure be a sadder place without him.
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Old 01-17-11, 10:36 PM   #8
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Perhaps even now, Apple scientists are working feverishly on iLiver.
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Old 01-17-11, 10:56 PM   #9
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I say they give the reins to Pcad.
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Old 01-18-11, 02:05 AM   #10
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Jobs is/was the Leader. Apple won't be the same without him. Though, I wouldn't mind seeing clones.
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Old 01-18-11, 06:13 AM   #11
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Though, I wouldn't mind seeing clones.
You don't get it.
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Old 01-18-11, 06:14 AM   #12
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*ahem* Apple's stock ticker is AAPL *cough*
And so it is. But the trading symbol for Pcad remains FRED.
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Old 01-18-11, 06:16 AM   #13
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I agree the company fundamentals are strong and they have a good two years of growth with existing products. However, without Jobs vision it will be hard to see where the company goes beyond that horizon. I have a 10% trailing stop on AAPL and if it triggers I will let it sell and watch to get back in if it goes lower. I am sure their report will kick butt, but in the end if he is really sick again I expect all of the trading to be very opportunistic and it becomes more of a short term play than a long term hold for me
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Old 01-18-11, 07:04 AM   #14
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I agree the company fundamentals are strong and they have a good two years of growth with existing products. However, without Jobs vision it will be hard to see where the company goes beyond that horizon.
Two years in investing is like a millennium. In trading it's like eternity.
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Old 01-18-11, 07:21 AM   #15
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Two years in investing is like a millennium. In trading it's like eternity.
I started investing/trading around 1995, NASDAQ was at $750 AAPL was $9 and I was not buying tech at that time. Lived in San Jose during the bubble and watch things go to $5000 and back down to $1100 (AAPL $38), still never bought Apple . Now NASDAQ is $2600 and AAPL is $340, I got in at $200.

So long term investing pays off but people want to win the lottery these days and if you gamble you lose more than you win. There is investing and there is trading, I do both, AAPL is a trade for me.
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Old 01-18-11, 07:30 AM   #16
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AAPL is an investment for me. It's going to $400+ by year end. I think once AAPL gets up into the $450-$500 range, it starts getting much harder for it to go higher, but I do think that's where it's going over the next 18 months.
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Old 01-18-11, 07:39 AM   #17
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What will happen is this: AAPL gets up into that $450-$600 range, then maybe it stalls for a year or two. The pile of cash at Apple starts to approach or exceed $100 billion. The shareholders get restless. AAPL morphs from a growth stock to a relatively go nowhere stock like Intel or Microsoft, and eventually Apple has to issue a dividend and maybe split the stock. The one factor preventing a stock split or a dividend is Jobs, he is dead set against it. So in some ways, his departure is good news for shareholders.

Don't get me wrong, I love what Jobs has done for Apple and technology, but as a shareholder, the fate of my investments held hostage to the fate of one individual has gotten rather old. That's never good for a company or its stock.
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Old 01-18-11, 08:22 AM   #18
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What will happen is this: AAPL gets up into that $450-$600 range, then maybe it stalls for a year or two. The pile of cash at Apple starts to approach or exceed $100 billion. The shareholders get restless. AAPL morphs from a growth stock to a relatively go nowhere stock like Intel or Microsoft, and eventually Apple has to issue a dividend and maybe split the stock. The one factor preventing a stock split or a dividend is Jobs, he is dead set against it. So in some ways, his departure is good news for shareholders.

Don't get me wrong, I love what Jobs has done for Apple and technology, but as a shareholder, the fate of my investments held hostage to the fate of one individual has gotten rather old. That's never good for a company or its stock.
I hope that scenario plays out, it will open 5% down so my sell trigger will hold, earnings will be good and that should hold things. I really expect that SJ now has to provide some transistion plan to street, he was able to get away without it in the past but the board would be negligent if they don't do something at this point. If the transition is Cook then everyone will relax as he is a known entity and the product pipeline and sales are strong. If they go another direction it will lead to uncertaintly and more stock churn. I plan to keep my exit strategy in place which will ensure that I get enough profit out that I will not be kicking myself.
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Old 01-18-11, 08:54 AM   #19
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I feel bad for him. He has a fatal cancer. Question is not "if" but "when"
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Old 01-18-11, 01:00 PM   #20
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I hope that scenario plays out, it will open 5% down so my sell trigger will hold.
Oh stop. How long have you been doing this? My scenario is a long term macro view, you can't make silly pronouncements like 'it will open 5% down' from that. When were you hoping for that? February 2012? Which week? Before or after the End of Days?
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Old 01-18-11, 01:01 PM   #21
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I hope they announce a significant stock buyback at the quarterly call tonight. Much smarter deployment of funds than to have it sitting in a friggin giant virtual 1% mattress.
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Old 01-18-11, 01:18 PM   #22
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Two bits of reality from such disparate sources as medical science and economics:

1. Pancreatic cancer kills you.

2. Bubbles burst.





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Old 01-18-11, 01:20 PM   #23
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Didn't apples stock flounder when Job's left the first time?
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Old 01-18-11, 01:30 PM   #24
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Oh stop. How long have you been doing this? My scenario is a long term macro view, you can't make silly pronouncements like 'it will open 5% down' from that. When were you hoping for that? February 2012? Which week? Before or after the End of Days?
Not pronostication they were down 5% in pre-market trading. Currently they rebounded to about 2.5% down which is magnificant considering the SJ news, means Cook has a lot of confidence behind him and everyone is wary of the getting caught on a blow out earnings report. If the earnings are not a blow out you might see more sell off tomorrow but I'm comfortable my position will hold. I plan to be in AAPL until it hits the 10% stop, may be tomorrow, may be in 5 years. Living through a few bubbles has lead me to make sure I have a solid exit and keep it in place.
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Old 01-18-11, 01:44 PM   #25
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Not pronostication they were down 5% in pre-market trading. Currently they rebounded to about 2.5% down which is magnificant considering the SJ news, means Cook has a lot of confidence behind him and everyone is wary of the getting caught on a blow out earnings report. If the earnings are not a blow out you might see more sell off tomorrow but I'm comfortable my position will hold. I plan to be in AAPL until it hits the 10% stop, may be tomorrow, may be in 5 years. Living through a few bubbles has lead me to make sure I have a solid exit and keep it in place.
You were saying you hoped my scenario would result in a 5% sell off. My scenario plays out by 2012, not sooner.
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