Looks like nice weather for Derby 140. Give us some picks if you've got some, or tell us a story of a Derby past.
I will take General A Rod, with the disclaimer that I have been on this horse for a while now, without anything to show for it. He is, however, bred to go the distance, and he's always been in the mix in some big races, like the Florida Derby. He needs to relax and rate early, as there are a lot in this field who would like the lead--let 'em have it, please!
Toss out the favorite, California Chrome, if you are greedy like me. He's done all his best running on one dirt track only--Santa Anita, and in most of his races he beat California breds only (No Cal-bred has won the Derby in over 50 years...). I won't take that short price in a race that often produces such wild outcomes. He likes to be up front, and that's probably a bad idea today. Note the one time he was 'off slowly'; he gave up. A similar outcome today is a real possibility; at least half the horses will have some amount of bad trippin'. That said, he is still a threat to win or hit the board, maybe 50/50 to be in the tri/supers.
Behind the General, I'll look for value with Danza, Samraat, Dances with Fate, and Intense Holiday. Any of those four behind General A Rod should produce an exacta worth 150-200 for a buck.
Good luck to anyone who might be holding tickets today.