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Old 05-03-14, 08:13 AM   #1
chewybrian 
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Kentucky Derby Day

Looks like nice weather for Derby 140. Give us some picks if you've got some, or tell us a story of a Derby past.

I will take General A Rod, with the disclaimer that I have been on this horse for a while now, without anything to show for it. He is, however, bred to go the distance, and he's always been in the mix in some big races, like the Florida Derby. He needs to relax and rate early, as there are a lot in this field who would like the lead--let 'em have it, please!

Toss out the favorite, California Chrome, if you are greedy like me. He's done all his best running on one dirt track only--Santa Anita, and in most of his races he beat California breds only (No Cal-bred has won the Derby in over 50 years...). I won't take that short price in a race that often produces such wild outcomes. He likes to be up front, and that's probably a bad idea today. Note the one time he was 'off slowly'; he gave up. A similar outcome today is a real possibility; at least half the horses will have some amount of bad trippin'. That said, he is still a threat to win or hit the board, maybe 50/50 to be in the tri/supers.

Behind the General, I'll look for value with Danza, Samraat, Dances with Fate, and Intense Holiday. Any of those four behind General A Rod should produce an exacta worth 150-200 for a buck.

Good luck to anyone who might be holding tickets today.
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Old 05-03-14, 06:37 PM   #2
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Mr. Arm Chair Bookie says you would be wrong.
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i glad turn hobbits
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Old 05-03-14, 06:56 PM   #3
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I miss my jockey days
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Old 05-03-14, 07:01 PM   #4
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Gone to Hanes or Fruit of the Loom?
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Old 05-03-14, 07:03 PM   #5
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I use aluminum
foil
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Old 05-03-14, 07:21 PM   #6
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Well that explains everything.

Thanks!
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Old 05-03-14, 07:40 PM   #7
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Why aren't racing horses getting faster?

From this perspective, it seems like just a cr*p-shoot.
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Old 05-03-14, 07:44 PM   #8
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Well that explains everything.

Thanks!
lol
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Old 05-03-14, 08:09 PM   #9
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I mean I have heard of tin foil helmets, but foil jockey straps are futuristic.

You are one cutting edge S.O. B. windy.

Don't ever change.
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Old 05-03-14, 10:56 PM   #10
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This is my favorite picture from the derby
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Old 05-04-14, 01:41 AM   #11
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This is my favorite picture from the derby
That guy was on the NBC broadcast!

California Chrome got a perfect trip, as the pace was surprisingly soft, and he ran a good race. It was a slow final time, though I will give him a little credit in that he geared down a bit before the wire when the race was a done deal.

Remember that a lot of others had rough trips, and might have run a lot better with a clean shot.

He won't face a large field at Pimlico, and he should win the Preakness on a track that favors his style. Then, he'll be a huge favorite in New York, and likely get beat in the Belmont by a distance specialist.
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Old 05-04-14, 09:55 AM   #12
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Really could have done without him yesterday ^^^^

Today we're feasting on leftover ribs and Derby Pie. Don't get no better I'll tell you what.
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Old 05-04-14, 10:52 AM   #13
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My money was on ahsposo since all anyone usually sees of him is his ass anyhow.
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Old 05-05-14, 11:33 AM   #14
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My money was on ahsposo since all anyone usually sees of him is his ass anyhow.


Chrome ran a good race. Interesting to see how he does on the rest.



I still remember watching Secretariat run. That horse was just unbelievable.
And winning the Belmont pulling away... just crazy...
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Old 05-05-14, 12:09 PM   #15
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Chrome ran a good race. Interesting to see how he does on the rest.



I still remember watching Secretariat run. That horse was just unbelievable.
And winning the Belmont pulling away... just crazy...
Andy Beyer, the speed figure guru, came up with a 148 figure for Secretariat's Belmont. In a typical year, you'll see the highest figures for the best horses run in the high teens or low 120's. The Derby this year was probably about 105 to 108. Cheap claimers run in the 60's.

Secretariat didn't just do one thing well. He won the biggest races of his day at many different tracks, at different distances, on sloppy tracks, even turf. And his past performances are littered with comments like: "track record", "stakes record", "world record" more often than not. Put him right up there with Eddie Merckx, Micheal Jordan, Jack Nicklaus, etc. I'm sorry I never saw him in person, and nothing I've seen in 30 years at the track compares in the least.

And, if memory serves, he was syndicated at stud for about a half a billion, which was real money back then.
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