digger

I just attended a weekend long bicycle rally where I had won a Livestrong braclet as a door prize at the Sunday evening banquet.

Someone had donated/purchased a bunch of braclets and offered them as door prizes and I had won one of them.

The guy who handed it too me told me not to open it, seeing how this is Lance Armstrongs last tour it will become a collectors item. Later that evening I was thinking about what he said and had a closer look at the packaging, I see no year that would indicate it as being a 2005 braclet or any other marks that would prevent it from being deemed 'an original' or 'authentic' 20 years down the road. Plus there must be millions of 'em out there now and wouldn't that at least have an affect on its value?

So, I'd thought I'd ask y'all - do you think these things are gonna be worth something in 20 years time? My feeling is no, maybe 100 years.

Digger

timmhaan

it may fetch a few bucks on ebay far off in the future, but it won't be much.

caloso

And when you sell it for a million dollars, are you going to donate it to the LAF for cancer research?

va_cyclist

It's a rubber band. Within 5-10 years it will harden, crack and fall apart.

digger

Ah yes, confirms my belief that there are 2 types of people on this planet - those who have something to say and those who have to say something.

No. Some will go to the MS Society, some to the Salvation Army, most to family and the rest I keep. Would you like a breakdown of the amounts for each?

Regardless, I have no hopes of actually getting a large sum of money for this, I was just curious as to the claim this guy made, that's all. IF this is worth something I'd be too old (most likely worm food) to collect anyway and considering that I paid $1.00 for a popsicle the other day that use to be 5 cents "when I was a young cracker" a million will probably get my a night at the movies.

Anyway, how does THAT answer my question?

KingTermite 

I think your initial assumption is right.

If it is not something limited in quantity especially for this year as his last tour or something, then there are millions out there and it will be worth squat. Sorry.

caloso

Sorry to offend you, Digger, but I think you could have predicted someone would question why you'd be looking to profit personally from an item that's being sold to raise awareness and funds for cancer research.

To answer your question seriously: I'd recommend putting it on eBay today. I doubt you'll get anything more in 20, 50, or 100 years.

GP

A friend of mine bought a bunch of them for future (>20 years) collectors value. I think they're sharing closet space with his beanie babys.

digger

I was reading through my orginal post, and being the one who wrote it, I still cannot see how I inferred that I hope to profit. However, seeing how everyone is telling me to post it on ebay now and not wait, I guess it must have.

To put my original post another way:
what would give this guy the idea that these bracelets would be worth something in time, especially now that Armstrong won his 7th tour and is now retired? He made a point of mentioning this fact to me. Upon examining the bracelet and package it comes in, I see nothing that gives me any ideas why, it looks like all the others I have seen. I know very little about these bracelets and was asking the Bike Forums if 'they' knew why.

I have no intentions of selling it on Ebay.

Nor will I throw it away. Cancer research is not a charity of mine, I'm not saying that it is not worthwhile, but I have my charities that I have picked based on my own personal history and background. I can't save the world.

I'll probably wear it to support cancer and spread the goodwill, they look kinda nice. Perhaps I'll give it to someone else.

Digger

Eggplant Jeff

Your title "A millionaire in 20 years" is saying that someone (implication is YOU) would be a millionaire.

Had you titled it "Worth a million in 20 years" it wouldn't have implied quite as strongly that you were interested in the million bucks for yourself.

Nothing becomes a collector's item unless it is at least somewhat rare. For something produced by the millions, that takes a really really long time. Civil war bullets are collectors items today, but not particularly expensive ones. I think they fetch a couple bucks apiece.

Basically my rule of thumb is that anything people say will be valuable in X years, won't be. Because there are enough people who think that and stash away 5, 20, 1000 of the item that they won't get rare enough to be valuable.

(Edit) let me clarify based on rereading the question in your last post: Lots of people think that anything that is place-and-time specific (such as Livestrong bracelets) will become valuable at some point. This is simply not true for the vast majority of items out there.

CdCf

Hmm, all-plastic household stuff from the 50s and 60s is really valuable and sought after here in Sweden. That stuff was made, not in the millions, but in the tens or hundreds of thousands. It's just that they were seen as so common and mundane that very few items survive to this day. When they broke or new stuff was purchased, the old plastic bits were thrown away.

So, if something is so common that no-one ever thinks it'll become rare and valuable, there's a good chance it will be!

samp02

in 20 years it will be just clutter that is lying around. I have enough of that already.

BostonFixed

What exactly are we talking about here? Tupperware? Toys? What?

FarHorizon

Naive optimism? Plain ignorance? Embarassment for offering a rubber band as a door prize? Previously unrecognized rubber fetishism? Take your choice..

iamlucky13

Agreed. Plus, Luke Skywalker's original lightsaber just sold for $200,000. There's millions of livestrong bracelets, one original lightsaber. I don't foresee an old rubber band coming even close to that level. I think it more likely the bracelets will be forgotten, and the few that survive will trade for $50-$100 on GoogAmazonBayHoo or whatever super comglomerate company has grown up by then.

CdCf

Mostly stuff like Tupperware, yes. Maybe toys too. Not sure.

However, although they're rare and valuable today, we're not talking huge sums of money...
Maybe (the equivalent of) US$50-300 for a nice, undamaged item.
Still not bad for a "cheap" piece of plastic from the 50s...

slvoid

Screw that, I'm keeping it for myself.

Bockman

Oh! Ooooh! Does he have a MIB Snowie The Leopard?!

lotek 

geez people, LAF produced something like 50 MILLION of them,
they will be worth about a dollar, maybe more if LA autographed
the package.

Marty

Nightsky565

In 20 yrs LAF will still be selling them for $1..................................................

RC2

Reminds me of a spongebob squarepants episode I recently watched with my 4-yr-old son (good stuff, SB, by the way!)... sponge had purchased a hat with attachments for two soda cans and the tubes that run to your mouth, with a "#1" on the front. The garage sell guy (was is squidward?!?) convinced SB it was worth some mula... saying "How Many #1's have ther EVER been?!?" SB's eyes got big, and squidward thought he'd taken the poor guy.

Immediately, SB was swarmed with anique investors who all offered him Millions of Dollars!!! Turns out, they found a truckload of the hats later on in a dumpster somewhere...they were worthless after all.

I think the LA bracelet will be kind of like that.

Cyclaholic

So, take the millions the antique investors offer you for the LA bracelet before they discover the dumpster full of them.

BTW, Spongebob rules!!!! (acording to my 3yo )

DannoXYZ 

"Basically my rule of thumb is that anything people say will be valuable in X years, won't be."

I saved a napkin from a VC lunch meeting with some young entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley. There were quite a few start-ups getting millions in funding from writing up biz-plans on napkins over lunch. I didn't finance these guys, but I thought I'd be hilarious if by the infinitessimally small chance that they might make it big that I'd publish one of those "How to write a winning Business Plan" books and include a copy of the napkin. As it is, when the dot.coms tanked, I blew my nose with that napkin and tossed it.

Collectibles is a cult phenomanon, it can be a self-fulfilling prophecy if you can get enough people on-board, kinda like a pyramid-scheme. Be sure you close-out at the top before the bottom falls out.

madman91

it might be a colletors item if its lance's bracelet, otherwise wear,sell it, or give it away.