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Old 03-27-08, 12:33 PM   #1
Bikepacker67
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Buy your new bike NOW!

Bad news brewing for the bike industry?

For years now, the bike industry has been riding a wave of popularity not unlike the "bike boom" of the 70's. Not only has this boom been good to the US bike industry, but the entire worldwide bike industry as well. It's been a really good ride, but almost all of us in the idnustry knew it would have to come to an end one day.

The world is not going to come to an end for the bike industry or for cycling enthusiasts and consumer, but there is going to be some noticeable change very soon.

Bicycle sales, especially in the US market, have been doing very well over the past 10 years. In many markets, that can be traced back directly to that Lance Armstrong guy and all those French bike races he managed to win. At least one brand really made out well on that deal, but at the same time many of the rest of us got a boost from their good fortune. Road bike sales climbed to an all-time high during the peak of the boom. Other categories faired pretty well too, in the end, with overall interest in cycling reaching higher levels than ever before. All in all, the past several years have been good to the bike industry.

The very competitive nature of the industry has lead to incredible values for consumers. Many years ago, a $1,000 bike was a pretty good bike. Maybe even a great bike. But now, the amount of product and technology present on a $1,000 bike is amazing. It is still possible to buy a bike that is not worth the money you pay for it- at all ends of the pricing spectrum- but it is pretty hard to. Technology and manufacturing have created a time where consumers typically get a very good product for the money they spend- this is especially true of bikes sold in the IBD/ specialty retail channel (ie- not Wal-Mart, Toys-R-Us, etc).

The down side of all of this pricing competition has meant that many manufacturers (and retailers) have had to operate with incredibly small profit margins- selling at lower than reasonable prices to gain market share. In essence, buying floor space (at the wholesale level) or buying loyalty (at the retail level). Thing is, it's hard to keep a business afloat like that and it is the major reason brands or stores come and go from the bike industry. Worst of all, when you operate on such narrow margins, any kind of increase in costs of goods means an increase in ultimate sell price...

... which brings us to my point...

Over the past few months, the bike industry has seen the "perfect storm" of circumstances hit it (like much of the rest of the economy); a slumping US and global economy, a massive increase in manufacturing costs, a dramatic jump in labor costs in both Taiwan and China, a sharp drop in the value of the US dollar and an increase in value of nearly every other global currency. The Taiwanese dollar, the NT, has gone from a little over $34NT/ $1US to just barely over $30NT/ $1US in just over 3 years. That may not seem like much, but it adds up quickly and doesn't even take into consideration any of the cost increases- that is just a loss in currency value. When you add in the cost increases for the actual products, it can become significant very quickly.

By some estimates, the cost of steel alone is going up as much as 65%! For my brand, which is heavily biased towards steel these days, that spells some pretty serious sleepless nights. Aluminum is going up. Carbon is going up. Anything petroleum-based is going up- like the materials used to make handlebar tapes and saddles. These costs are increasing leadtimes significantly as well, since many vendors are now unwilling or unable to spend the money to stock vast quantities of materials. This means that they need to order more often to meet their demands, but at least they don't have their capital resources tied up in raw materials.

In China, recent laws there are forcing a much needed increase in wages being paid to factory workers- as well as limiting the amount of overtime a worker can work. These are good changes, but they mean an increase in costs just the same. In Taiwan, there is a massive shortage of qualified skilled labor. The bike industry was once one of the best paying in Taiwan, but the rise in power of the tech industries there has drawn in a lot of the once strong work force in the bike industry. So now wages have gone up to compete for and retain good labor. It's a good time to be a factory worker in both China and Taiwan... or at least a better time.

In the past few months, I have seen 3 and 4 price increases from the same vendors. Just in the past 6 months- from some of the biggest names in the industry. Some vendors will not even quote a price any longer until they have a firm PO and then the pricing is only good for that one PO. This makes it impossible to accurately forecast the cost of a product and very difficult to create a selling price- when you have no idea if you will be making money on the product in 6 months. For me and the other brands at Haro, we print one price list per season and we live with that pricing for the duration of that product cycle/ season. This year though, we've had to issue a price increase to compensate for some of the price increases we've seen recently. We do our best to absorb those increases and preserve the pricing we've created, but when you are seeing double-digit increases, it becomes impossible to swallow all of those costs.

What does all this mean? Well, it certainly means there is a lot of nervousness in the bike industry right now. Many of us are very concerned about what the consumer is going to do; will they simply stop buying bikes (partly in thanks to what the economy is doing as well), or will they understand that we (the manufacturers and retailers) simply have no choice if we wish to stay in business? Some of us smaller players even worry if the Big Guys will simply eat the increases in the short term to maintain market strength and wait the situation out/ drive competitors from the market. Most things I have seen and heard indicate that those Big Guys are likely to pass on at least a small increase to their customers too. It would be hard to believe that they can afford such an increase in costs without passing along some of that burden. More to the point, it means that prices for Masi Bicycles are going to increase a little. On some bikes it will seem like nothing, but on others it might be more noticeable- when a bike goes from $700 to $775, it is more noticeable than when a bike goes from $4000 to $4300. Based on percentage, it is much less significant and the typical consumer in that higher price market is not as phased by the increase- generically speaking of course.

Bottom line- as much as it sucks, the bike industry is raising prices to slightly compensate for the rapid and painful increase in costs to produce a quality bicycle. I am seeing anywhere from a simple 5% increase to a massive 15-20% increase in my costs... and that's just the ones I know about so far, but that does not mean the retail price (or dealer price) is going up that sharply. In all likelihood... more increases are coming. And coming fast. Does it mean you are getting any less of a bike for the money? No, not at all. It just means that you'll be paying what is a more realistic price for the bike you get. Sure, there will be a slew of new low-spec bikes showing up on the market to keep the perceived necessary price points met. Some manufacturers will undoubtedly find ways to cut spec to keep a certain price (not our plan though). I'm not saying they are wrong to do it and we might find ways to create new models in those sensitive price ranges- it's just going to be a fact of life.

How long should this last and what does it mean long term? Well, that has yet to be accurately predicted to my knowledge. My guess is that prices are not going to be coming down any time soon. The global economy is still looking pretty volatile and the US$ keeps taking a beating. The Chinese Yuan is getting stronger, as is the Taiwan NT, and the Euro and the British Pound... so it is unlikely the Dollar is going to regain enough strength in the short term to eat up the cost increases. The overall volatility is likely to settle down, but as oil/ gas/ petroleum costs remain high, costs of goods will remain high- as will the costs to transport them. The global demand for raw goods- like steel- isn't going to decrease either. China and India, specifically, are eating up massive amounts of resources of raw goods as their economies expand and their development and growth increase as well. So, yeah... it's not too likely things are going to change any time soon to keep prices where they are now. I do predict that some smaller companies (retail and manufacturing) are going to pay the ultimate price for these increases and will either fade into history or be eaten by healthier competitors.

All of this would seem to point to very dark days for the bicycle industry, but things have actually been coming back up a bit after a mild slump in sales the past two years. Road sales have dropped, but are remaining strong- especially at the higher price points- and MTB and BMX are both seeing nice signs of life across the industry. At first glance it would appear that the industry is getting some support from consumers who are seeing the price of their other purchases going up all over the place. Costs of nearly everything across the board are going up... it's just a fact of life right now.

So even though buying a new bicycle might not feel as fun, due to the sudden increase in price, you're still getting a great deal on great products and the industry you are supporting is showing good signs of health... which hopefully means I get to keep my job a bit longer... I hope.
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Old 03-27-08, 02:13 PM   #2
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Maybe someday I'll post a copy of the Bible.
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Old 03-27-08, 03:28 PM   #3
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Maybe someday I'll post a copy of the Bible.

Sorry that a mere page and a half of text aggravates your ADD.
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Old 03-27-08, 06:47 PM   #4
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I actually read all that, and I never read long posts. Did you write that? If not, who is the source?
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Old 03-27-08, 06:49 PM   #5
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One day I'll post the dictionary entries for lead, lead, and led. And maybe, just maybe, it'll sink into some thick skull that the past tense of lead (pronounced leed) is led and not lead (pronounced led, and a heavy toxic metal).
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Old 03-27-08, 07:28 PM   #6
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I actually read all that, and I never read long posts. Did you write that? If not, who is the source?

The source is in the title link.
Sorry if that wasn't clear.

I've noticed a slight increase in bike parts lately, but I'm in Canada, so our dollar isn't taking the beating that the greenback is.

Anyone south of the 49th, noticing a rise in prices?
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Old 03-27-08, 07:37 PM   #7
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anyone wanna buy a painting for $900? i need a long haul trucker.
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Old 03-27-08, 08:23 PM   #8
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anyone wanna buy a painting for $900? i need a long haul trucker.

Is she nekkid?
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Old 03-27-08, 08:59 PM   #9
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The source is in the title link.
Try redoing that link; it took me to "http://Bad%20news%20brewing%20for%20the%20bike%20industry?".

It's an interesting problem. I don't think it's entirely reserved for the bike industry, though. The sandwich shop across the street from my workplace has had to raise prices a bit because everything they buy has gotten more expensive; she even has to buy smaller burger patties & buns now.

The bike industry is in a unique position, too. They used to be seen as toys or luxury items, but more and more people are buying them for fitness & transportation purposes. Public transit, cycle commuting's heavier cousin, has been seeing large ridership increases as well. More people, then, will be willing to buy good bikes to use every day -- so I don't think that price increases will dissuade them completely.

We'll see how this goes, I guess.
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Old 03-27-08, 09:00 PM   #10
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Here's the blog link:

http://bicyclemarketingwatch.blogspo...-industry.html
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Old 03-27-08, 09:10 PM   #11
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I've noticed a slight increase in bike parts lately, but I'm in Canada, so our dollar isn't taking the beating that the greenback is.

Anyone south of the 49th, noticing a rise in prices?
Take a look at the cost of Brooks saddles...you could get a B17 for 50 bucks last year, this year they are more like 80...it's even more pronounced with the Ti versions like the Swift - 200 bucks or less last year, 350 and above this year. The increases have been attributed to the falling dollar and the price of titanium.

But for bikes and many components, I haven't seen big increases yet...good thing too, since I bought two new bikes since February!
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Old 03-27-08, 09:16 PM   #12
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The increases have been attributed to the falling dollar...
The falling dollar has even been rocking markets that most people don't worry about. My German-built tuba, for example, is at least 50% more expensive now than it was only four years ago.
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Old 03-27-08, 09:16 PM   #13
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This reminds me of the posts from people trying to sell me gold and silver futures.
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Old 03-27-08, 09:51 PM   #14
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After half a decade of 1 to 2% inflation, it was somewhere around 4.5% last year, with some economists saying the "real" inflation rate was about 8% last year as a form of catch-up for the years of close to zero inflation. It does not surprise me that manufactured goods will have to cost more dollars, when inflation has caused the value of the dollar to drop.
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Old 03-27-08, 10:01 PM   #15
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All I know is that I bought a crate of California navel oranges (about 30) for 5.89 CA.

Looks like that exporting thang is working for ya!
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Old 03-27-08, 10:18 PM   #16
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All I know is that I bought a crate of California navel oranges (about 30) for 5.89 CA.

Looks like that exporting thang is working for ya!
Hey, maybe it's the only way we'll bring back some of those manufacturing jobs...
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Old 03-27-08, 10:49 PM   #17
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Is she nekkid?
all mah paintins is nekkid!
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Old 03-28-08, 07:54 AM   #18
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all mah paintins is nekkid!
You paint pictures of your mother in the nude? Man that's creepy.
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Old 03-28-08, 02:37 PM   #19
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You paint pictures of your mother in the nude? Man that's creepy.
You say that now... but you should SEE his mother...
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Old 03-28-08, 04:18 PM   #20
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The original author of the piece is Tim Jackson. He's the marketing director of Masi Bicycles in San Diego. He also posted this at his personal blog.
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Old 03-29-08, 01:15 AM   #21
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Maybe some folks will get the idea to spend their tax rebates on a bike...it could happen.

Me, I buy at Goodwill or yard sales, or search the "Free" piles. No retail therapy here.
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Old 03-29-08, 07:18 AM   #22
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The falling dollar has even been rocking markets that most people don't worry about.
It's the war tax. We've been putting the costs for the Iraq war on the credit card. That doesn't work any better for the country than it does for your personal finances. You can run up the plastic for a little while but eventually it always comes back to bite you.
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Old 03-29-08, 09:58 AM   #23
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The original author of the piece is Tim Jackson. He's the marketing director of Masi Bicycles in San Diego. He also posted this at his personal blog.
Cool! I can whack him with a virtual dictionary there!
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Old 03-29-08, 10:14 AM   #24
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Im well aware and very scared of the dollar vs. the world scenerio but
I think bikes are already overpriced per se.....Sorry to go into the areas
of Bikes Direct unpleasantness, large companies can streamline and
cut thier own costs to keep prices inline with the recession.
The Online bikes Ive purchased have been no different quality-wise than
the Specialized/Trek bikes Ive owned and costed 100's less. Bicycling
magazine type advertising and a focus on weekend riders with expendable
cash is driving the market right now. For instance, I went to look at a
Specialized Globe at the LBS and he wanted 800.00 !!!
For a three speed with no racks or fenders thats simply outragious.
800.00 will almost get you a Crosscheck on-line. The industry has ups
and downs and has profited on the Lance Armstrong-Carbon-Lycra 'up' for
a few years now.....they need to refocus and prioritize for this change in
economy/dynamics of society just like other industries do.
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Old 03-29-08, 10:08 PM   #25
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I don't post often ... and I must admit I dazed out for a bit mid-post due to the length of the OP so I might have missed if the price of gas was included in the discussion ... but I have to throw in this thought. Certainly there is a perfect storm brewing that may/has raise(d) the cost of a good bike, but with the price of gas continuing to rise perhaps more people are now looking at bicycling as a viable form of alternative transportation? If there becomes a shift in North America towards seeing a bike as a viable form of transportation (rather than a recreational pursuit) due to the price of gas, then I see the market for quality bikes growing even with a price increase. I consider myself one of those in the new market. I've been on the bubble for a couple years toying with the idea of commuting to work. With the price of gas, I've now decided its time to commute by bike. So I am now in the market for a good quality bike that can reliably get me to work/run errands - and for that I am willing to pay more. Even with another 5% - 15% onto the price of a bike, it'll still pay for itself in gas money saved.

So, setting aside production costs for a moment, markets are always changing. With higher price tags, bike manufacturers may lose some recreational riders but pick up some "alternative transportation" riders due to gas prices. It appears that bike companies are seeing this as a reality ... its amazing how many companies are now marketing "urban" bikes for commuting.

Will a changing market balance out the ledger? As someone on the outside of the bike industry, I have no clue. But I truly believe that the price of gas is going to have a positive impact on the bike industry.
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