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Old 07-04-09, 08:19 PM   #1
duke_of_hazard
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Accuracy of wind forecasts

I notice the weather forecast for the wind for the next day is always accurate. It is more accurate than the rain forecasts are. Is that a general principle of weather forecasting, or have I just been lucky with the wind forecasts? The forecast get both the direction and the wind speed correct 80% of the time.
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Old 07-04-09, 10:17 PM   #2
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From my experience, most wind forecasts ... and most current wind conditions ... are taken and calculated from a sensor kept under a glass dome in a sheltered corner with buildings on three sides and a bank of pine trees on the fourth.

5 km/h indeed!! More like 25 km/h or 35 km/h or 45 km/h.
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Old 07-04-09, 10:19 PM   #3
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My weather man does not even get what day it is right. Geez, I have pretty much quit even checking the weather forecast.
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Old 07-05-09, 06:03 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duke_of_hazard View Post
I notice the weather forecast for the wind for the next day is always accurate. It is more accurate than the rain forecasts are. Is that a general principle of weather forecasting...?
I think it depends where you are.

In Florida, it can rain any time in the summer, with little notice--easier to predict wind.

In Ohio, you usually know the rain is coming days in advance--easier to predict rain.

Either way, weatherman ranks somewhere between politician and lawyer.
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Old 07-05-09, 06:44 AM   #5
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I notice the weather forecast for the wind for the next day is always accurate. It is more accurate than the rain forecasts are. Is that a general principle of weather forecasting, or have I just been lucky with the wind forecasts? The forecast get both the direction and the wind speed correct 80% of the time.
You've just been lucky.
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Old 07-05-09, 06:49 AM   #6
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Weather is an extremely complex phenomenon and its forcasting is therefore subject to so many variables that predictions are more science fiction than actual happenings. Some even claim to be able to predice earth's temperature rise by a miniscule couple of degrees 10 years into the future and then turn it into a pandemic worse then the swine flu. Non-believers are vilified.
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Old 07-05-09, 07:03 AM   #7
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The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young

Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while. ~Kin Hubbard
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Old 07-05-09, 10:48 AM   #8
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I scoff at the wind forecasts. Nearly always dead wrong if you're near the water. It gets stupid windy where I work, right on the water. I check the weather network and they're totally wrong.
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Old 07-05-09, 11:19 AM   #9
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I have discovered that different forecasts have differing accuracy depending on where you are located. I use Forecast Advisor to get an idea of who to rely on. But take THAT with a some skepticism. When I was working in Ohio they all failed miserably, I could do a better job by looking at the sky than they could with all their fancy computers and digital doodads.

Aaron
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