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Old 12-18-05, 10:09 AM   #1
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Future of Gas Prices

Does anyone have any reliable information on the near future of gas prices? Are they going to keep going down, or maybe start going up again? It seems lately all they've been doing is going down... Why is this happening? !!!!!!!! I kinda liked it when they were higher... honest, people around me were starting to actually THINK.
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Old 12-18-05, 10:38 AM   #2
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They are already coming back up again, the european imports of refined product that were shipped from their reserves after Katrina have been stopped and should be about done working their way thru the system(it takes weeks). I think we are looking at $3/gallon by around february or sooner, should continue to climb all next year from there barring some sort of other incident. Here in columbus ohio prices bottomed at about $2.08/gallon, back up to $2.27 now and climbing every week a few cents at a time.

World growth of consumption is expected to rise about another 1-1.4 million bpd in 2006, which is more than produced in 2005 and more than can be produced unless something drastic happens. Plenty of heavy sour crude for sale at $32/barrel, but light sweet crude is heavily in demand.

The gulf region is still having serious issues from Katrina, most of the natural gas and crude production is still shutdown, wont recover for years.......those numbers are available at a govt website and are updated daily monday thru friday.

For daily oil news and related industries, try oil.com and energybulletin.net.
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Old 12-18-05, 03:07 PM   #3
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Did that fire in the English petrol depot affect prices?
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Old 12-18-05, 03:19 PM   #4
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Maybe a tiny bit locally in the UK itself, but after shutting off their reserves they were tapping and sending our way I doubt theyve got any big problems for the moment. Their accident wasnt all that big from what I read.

Even after what Katrina did to us, although wiping out a sizable chunk of production, it takes 3-6 weeks to see any changes, and imports have been able to keep up with demand, so far anyway.

I think the next eye opener we may see near term is natural gas prices, those should increase even more in the next month or two. If we dont have a cold long winter domestically gas prices shouldnt rise all that much and heating oil will go up but not by a bunch, natural gas is gonna go up no matter what. Natural gas doesnt just taper off like oil production does, it tends to just quit coming out and it happens quickly. Domestically we are hurting for natural gas supplies, Canada is saving us there.
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Old 12-18-05, 10:57 PM   #5
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any downturn is temporary.
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Old 12-19-05, 12:31 AM   #6
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Short term trends are always difficult to predict, as small perturbations can push prices either way. Long term trends are much easier to follow, and the only direction there is up-up-up.
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Old 12-19-05, 07:11 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roody
Did that fire in the English petrol depot affect prices?
No, our little bonfire was mostly jet fuel. It caused some planes to be redirected to other airports due to shortages at Heathrow, but did nothing to petrol (gas) prices.
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Old 12-19-05, 07:37 AM   #8
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up,DOWN,UP,DOWN DEPENDING ON CASH NEEDED TO PAY FOR BONUSES AND GILTED PARACHUTES
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Old 12-19-05, 06:07 PM   #9
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My cager friends tell me that gas prices here are going up again rapidly. They were down almost to $2/gal., but are now around $2.20, I'm told.
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Old 12-23-07, 11:42 PM   #10
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A quick update, two years on from the OP's post:

Quote:
"Gasoline price sets fresh record high in Japan

www.chinaview.cn 2007-12-12 21:56:14

TOKYO, Dec. 12 (Xinhua) -- The average retail price of regular gasoline in Japan increased by 0.60 yen per liter from a week earlier as of Monday, reaching a new record high of 155.50 yen (about 1.40 U.S. dollars) per liter for the second consecutive week, local media reported on Wednesday, quoting industry group.

The figure represented the all-time high since Japan's Oil Information Center began compiling the data in 1987.

The center attributed the price hike to major oil wholesalers' lifting of wholesale prices of gasoline for December shipments due to recent surges in crude oil prices.

The average diesel oil price also increased by 0.80 yen to an all-time high of 133.60 yen (about 1.20 U.S. dollars), the center said.


Editor: Jiang Yuxia
That works out to $5.30 a US gallon.
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Old 12-24-07, 08:47 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by Travelinguyrt View Post
up,DOWN,UP,DOWN DEPENDING ON CASH NEEDED TO PAY FOR BONUSES AND GILTED PARACHUTES
And don't forget dividends. Be the man, own stock in oil, and good investment
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Old 12-24-07, 09:28 AM   #12
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For the USA, here is a good site:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petro...home_page.html

Here is the latest chart; a definite and substantial slope:

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Old 12-24-07, 09:31 AM   #13
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Concur that any downturn is temporary. The US really needs to start planning for extended high gas and fuel prices so that there's infrastructure available for cycling as there is in most parts of europe. My driving is minimal and really now gets to be more to get to places I go on rides now, but once it goes up too far, those will be curtailed as well. For the most part, I only use my car for shopping, family trips, and severe weather which would make cycling unsafe, still putting a tankfull of gas in the car once a month has steadily gone up and up and up over the past 5 years that I've tried to be car free.
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Old 12-24-07, 10:01 AM   #14
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Concur that any downturn is temporary. The US really needs to start planning for extended high gas and fuel prices so that there's infrastructure available for cycling as there is in most parts of europe.
What amazes me is that the US, for all its concern about homeland security, appears to have no backup plan for the not-entirely-unlikely possibility of a drastic reduction in refined oil supplies. If one or two Saudi oil facilities were disrupted by terrorist acitivity (or even a good sandstorm...), the US would be about the most severely hit country on Earth.
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Old 12-24-07, 10:08 AM   #15
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What amazes me is that the US, for all its concern about homeland security, appears to have no backup plan for the not-entirely-unlikely possibility of a drastic reduction in refined oil supplies. If one or two Saudi oil facilities were disrupted by terrorist acitivity (or even a good sandstorm...), the US would be about the most severely hit country on Earth.
what do you mean no backup plan ?

the fact is, the usa has more energy reserves stashed in the ground
as crude oil, coal, natural gas, geothermal (unlimited), and oil shale than we will need for the next 200 years.

when push comes to shove we'll be tapping our own supplies. the reason we haven't gone ape now
are environmental concerns and cost. crude oil is still cheaper and oil still tightly integrated into our factories. but when it becomes apparent that
the usa is threatened in a big way, we'll go nuts tapping our own energy. 100% clean coal technology already exists, and super cheap oil extraction from oil shale has been figured out. all we need is some pressure to make it the dominant way to get energy. we don't have that pressure yet.

there are no huge long term worries. solar panels already are in production for 1 dollar a watt. I mean long term, there are no worries. nada. zero. it's all figured out, it is just a slow process and slow changeover. in 200 years we'll still be using oil, and a boatload of solar. probably all consumer energy will be solar by then.
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Old 12-24-07, 10:44 AM   #16
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100% clean coal technology already exists, and super cheap oil extraction from oil shale has been figured out. all we need is some pressure to make it the dominant way to get energy. we don't have that pressure yet.

there are no huge long term worries. solar panels already are in production for 1 dollar a watt. I mean long term, there are no worries. nada. zero. it's all figured out, it is just a slow process and slow changeover. in 200 years we'll still be using oil, and a boatload of solar. probably all consumer energy will be solar by then.
I think we agree completely on this. The US plan is something like you describe... basically serendipity. If we keep belching out CO2 long enough, we'll trip over some promising technology and everything will be good to go.

Meanwhile, other countries seem to have invested in more reality-based scenarios.
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Old 12-24-07, 11:09 AM   #17
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i hope they go up. but only for tax reasons.
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Old 12-24-07, 11:30 AM   #18
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The number of players, fingers in the money pie, and gov't regulations
make predicting the price of oil futures a black art at best. NO ONE
really knows exactly what the price will be tomorrow at the pump
but those that can guess good will get very rich if they invest in
oil futures.
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Old 12-24-07, 12:31 PM   #19
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100% clean coal technology already exists, and super cheap oil extraction from oil shale has been figured out.

Where's the BS smiley when you need it...
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Old 12-24-07, 02:01 PM   #20
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100% clean coal technology already exists...
Really? Where can I read about that?
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Old 12-25-07, 07:35 AM   #21
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Does anyone have any reliable information on the near future of gas prices? Are they going to keep going down, or maybe start going up again? It seems lately all they've been doing is going down... Why is this happening? !!!!!!!! I kinda liked it when they were higher... honest, people around me were starting to actually THINK.
Gasoline prices are affected mostly by demand. Notice in the past three months, gasoline prices have actually gone slightly DOWN despite the fact that crude oil prices have gone up.

This is because there has been a slight decrease in demand since the rapid and recent rise in the price of gasoline. It appears that, in the short term, gasoline does in fact have elastic demand. That is, the American consumer actually WILL change their buying habits of gasoline as prices change. It was long believed that gasoline had inelastic demand in the USA because people in the USA are so dependant on gasoline for daily transport. What economists had not anticipated was that Americans do have some ability to change living patterns and save on some gasoline purchases.

I think USA consumers have just begun to show how much they can cut-back on fuel purchases. Now, people just cut back on their holiday driving and odd errands. Wait until people stop hauling their kids all over town for piano lessons, soccer, etcetera and decide that they can hire the piano teacher in their own neighborhood and let their kids bicycle to the LOCAL soccer team rather than the one across town. In the next go around, when people make automobile purchases, they won't be buying 7 mpg SUV's, but will look for automobiles that get 27 to 40 mpg. As inflation and rising fuel prices put more strain on the poor and lower middle class, they will start to ride public transportation and maybe even bicycle.

The USA can really make a big dent in fuel demand just by our citizens making some very little lifestyle changes.

That said, Gas prices in Japan are $6.50 per gallon and gasoline is $8.00 per gallon in England. In both countries, the roads and streets are bumper to bumper with personal automobiles driven by people who could be using convenient and low-cost public transportation. Thus, I am convinced that gasoline prices could go to at least $8.00 per gallon and people would continue to purchase it - of course, complaining about the prices all the while.
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Old 12-25-07, 11:42 AM   #22
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Really? Where can I read about that?
at universities

the technology exists, but is it deployed at power plant scales ? only in one research facility.
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Old 12-25-07, 12:06 PM   #23
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at universities

the technology exists, but is it deployed at power plant scales ? only in one research facility.
Sorry to be so blunt, but that's a crock, and I think you know perfectly well that it is. Otherwise, you'd be able to produce some documentation.
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Old 12-26-07, 03:43 PM   #24
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Gasoline prices are affected mostly by demand. Notice in the past three months, gasoline prices have actually gone slightly DOWN despite the fact that crude oil prices have gone up.

This is because there has been a slight decrease in demand since the rapid and recent rise in the price of gasoline. It appears that, in the short term, gasoline does in fact have elastic demand. That is, the American consumer actually WILL change their buying habits of gasoline as prices change. It was long believed that gasoline had inelastic demand in the USA because people in the USA are so Dependant on gasoline for daily transport. What economists had not anticipated was that Americans do have some ability to change living patterns and save on some gasoline purchases.
Good observation! I would like to back you up on that with this observation:

Gasoline demand is elastic, diesel demand is not.

When fuel price rise, gasoline and diesel rise in tandem. But when gasoline falls in price, diesel often will not, or will fall at a much slower rate. I think this is the explanation for this phenomena- By far the largest user of diesel fuel is commercial transportation. They have no more discretionary ways to reduce their consumption, and thus demand for diesel is very in-elastic when compared to gasoline use.
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Old 12-26-07, 04:21 PM   #25
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Good observation! I would like to back you up on that with this observation:

Gasoline demand is elastic, diesel demand is not.

When fuel price rise, gasoline and diesel rise in tandem. But when gasoline falls in price, diesel often will not, or will fall at a much slower rate. I think this is the explanation for this phenomena- By far the largest user of diesel fuel is commercial transportation. They have no more discretionary ways to reduce their consumption, and thus demand for diesel is very in-elastic when compared to gasoline use.
ChipSeal,
I think that is a large part of the equation, but you also have to figure in the heating oil aspect of it...#1 heating oil and #2 Diesel are pretty much the same thing, so if one is in short supply the other will take a price beating too.

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