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  1. #1
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    Living car free numbers to increase dramatically.

    BBC News today (Sunday) : Petrol pump price could pass 1 a liter

    To convert to USA numbers: assume an average car has a 12 gallon tank, 12 US gallons is about 45 liters, 12 imperial gallons is 54 liters.

    50 liters of gas at 1 GBP a liter is 100 USD a tank!

    Oil is at an all time high, and (with natural gas) likely to climb higher as we head into winter. The USA sub-prime mortgage collapse has been generally fingered as the culprit in the international credit collapse and (in the UK) a run on a bank (Northern Rock) - few seem to be asking why so many should suddenly default on their mortgages in the sub-prime market at about the same time - enough to cause international financial market distress. The feds have only ever increased interest rates gradually and in relatively small amounts of 0.25% - the most important fact is that nobody predicted the collapse. Some of the brightest people on the planet working in the big investment banks were caught out.

    If the high price of oil was a significant cause of the collapse in the sub-prime mortgage market - then things may be about to get a lot worse. One of the things that amazes me is the contrast between the near panic leading up to the potential year 2000 computer problems (that were properly addressed) and the complete lack of panic for peak oil (which cannot be addressed).

    Living car free numbers could soon see significant increases.
    LOL The End is Nigh (for 80% of middle class North Americans) - I sneer in their general direction.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonB View Post
    BBC News today (Sunday) : Petrol pump price could pass 1 a liter

    To convert to USA numbers: assume an average car has a 12 gallon tank, 12 US gallons is about 45 liters, 12 imperial gallons is 54 liters.

    50 liters of gas at 1 GBP a liter is 100 USD a tank!

    Oil is at an all time high, and (with natural gas) likely to climb higher as we head into winter. The USA sub-prime mortgage collapse has been generally fingered as the culprit in the international credit collapse and (in the UK) a run on a bank (Northern Rock) - few seem to be asking why so many should suddenly default on their mortgages in the sub-prime market at about the same time - enough to cause international financial market distress. The feds have only ever increased interest rates gradually and in relatively small amounts of 0.25% - the most important fact is that nobody predicted the collapse. Some of the brightest people on the planet working in the big investment banks were caught out.

    If the high price of oil was a significant cause of the collapse in the sub-prime mortgage market - then things may be about to get a lot worse. One of the things that amazes me is the contrast between the near panic leading up to the potential year 2000 computer problems (that were properly addressed) and the complete lack of panic for peak oil (which cannot be addressed).

    Living car free numbers could soon see significant increases.
    Cool now it won't take me so long to get that latte!

  3. #3
    Senior Member Newspaperguy's Avatar
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    Specialized fan, rising oil prices could affect you in other ways as well. As fuel prices keep on rising, properties in the suburbs or far from downtown areas could drop in value. They won't be as desirable when the cost of driving back and forth is factored in. So if you're looking for a place in the suburbs, you could get a good deal. The problem is nobody know exactly how high fuel prices will have to rise before affecting the choice of a home.
    Life is good.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonB View Post

    To convert to USA numbers: assume an average car has a 12 gallon tank, 12 US gallons is about 45 liters, 12 imperial gallons is 54 liters.

    50 liters of gas at 1 GBP a liter is 100 USD a tank!.
    Is there something wrong with the math here or am I just half asleep?
    Quote Originally Posted by M_S View Post
    ..... but at the end of the day we're all just dorks riding around on bicycles, right?

  5. #5
    Senior Member
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    BTW, Specialized Fan, I hope your spill that hot latte on your nuts.
    Quote Originally Posted by M_S View Post
    ..... but at the end of the day we're all just dorks riding around on bicycles, right?

  6. #6
    Senior Member wahoonc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MyBikeGotStolen View Post
    BTW, Specialized Fan, I hope your spill that hot latte on your nuts.


    Aaron
    Webshots is bailing out, if you find any of my posts with corrupt picture files and want to see them corrected please let me know. :(

    ISO: A late 1980's Giant Iguana MTB frameset (or complete bike) 23" Red with yellow graphics.

    "Cycling should be a way of life, not a hobby.
    RIDE, YOU FOOL, RIDE!"
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    Which one would you rather have under your butt at 30mph?"
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  7. #7
    Conservative Hippie
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    Quote Originally Posted by MyBikeGotStolen View Post
    Is there something wrong with the math here...?
    Not at 1 BPS to a little over 2 USD.

  8. #8
    Senior Member wahoonc's Avatar
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    I question the reporter's logic on pinning the cost of oil to the collapse of the sub prime market. He also shows his lack of education on the whole mortgage/sub prime issue. It is the sub prime Adjustable Rate Mortgages that are at the root of the problem, that and people speculating.... I wonder what the building rate would have been if they hadn't played games in the mortgage market?

    I do believe we are in for some very interesting times.

    Aaron
    Webshots is bailing out, if you find any of my posts with corrupt picture files and want to see them corrected please let me know. :(

    ISO: A late 1980's Giant Iguana MTB frameset (or complete bike) 23" Red with yellow graphics.

    "Cycling should be a way of life, not a hobby.
    RIDE, YOU FOOL, RIDE!"
    _Nicodemus

    "Steel: nearly a thousand years of metallurgical development
    Aluminum: barely a hundred
    Which one would you rather have under your butt at 30mph?"
    _krazygluon

  9. #9
    Disgruntled Planner bpohl's Avatar
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    I'm so glad I bought a house downtown that I could actually afford (payment is less than 25% of my monthly income). If I could never drive again, it wouldn't really hurt e that much, although, arguably, we'll all be paying MUCH higher prices for the goods we consume.
    Don't waste your breath to save your face when you have done your best.

  10. #10
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    Not everyone can live downtown. People who are stuck in the suburbs will have to adapt by living more car light.

  11. #11
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    The main point is people who are hoping the government to tax the heck out of oil doesn't realize that high oil prices hurt everyone.

  12. #12
    Senior Member Newspaperguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Specialized fan View Post
    The main point is people who are hoping the government to tax the heck out of oil doesn't realize that high oil prices hurt everyone.
    Not necessarily. If a system were set up to heavily tax fuel for individuals but not business and commercial use, the result would be a push away from driving without radically increasing other prices.
    Life is good.

  13. #13
    Senior Member wahoonc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Specialized fan View Post
    The main point is people who are hoping the government to tax the heck out of oil doesn't realize that high oil prices hurt everyone.
    Not so much hurt but it will force them to make better choices. America has subsidized the oil industry with tax breaks and giveaways. We have become addicted to cheap oil. Now that the world market has changed we have to break that addiction. They have done a pretty good job of it in Europe and Japan by taxing the living daylights out of it and using the money to build top notch mass transit systems, so when oil peaks and starts to run out they will be in better shape than the US that is sprawled out all over the place. Face it breaking an addiction can hurt and it will hurt. But what doesn't kill you might just make you better for it. We have an obesity epidemic...one of the reasons is lack of exercise, we drive everywhere instead of walking. The small town my wife's shop is in, is only 12 square miles, why anyone that lives and works in town needs to drive a car is beyond me! I dropped my daughter's car off to have tires put on it the other day. They told me they would get someone to drive me down to the shop as soon as they got back from running some errand, it was going to be about 30 minutes or so. I told them don't bother I will walk...it was all of 14 blocks (small ones at that) and they seemed shocked. The automobile has killed the walkable neighborhood structure of much of this country and put many smaller business people out of business. We have people come into our store that have driven to every store in a 100 mile radius, just to make sure they are getting the best price possible...so they waste hours and fuel to make sure that they are saving $15 on something. That is the type of behavior that will be hurt by higher fuel prices, and needs to be IMHO.

    Aaron
    Webshots is bailing out, if you find any of my posts with corrupt picture files and want to see them corrected please let me know. :(

    ISO: A late 1980's Giant Iguana MTB frameset (or complete bike) 23" Red with yellow graphics.

    "Cycling should be a way of life, not a hobby.
    RIDE, YOU FOOL, RIDE!"
    _Nicodemus

    "Steel: nearly a thousand years of metallurgical development
    Aluminum: barely a hundred
    Which one would you rather have under your butt at 30mph?"
    _krazygluon

  14. #14
    Dubito ergo sum. patc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Platy View Post
    Not everyone can live downtown. People who are stuck in the suburbs will have to adapt by living more car light.
    Where does this view of "its downtown or suburbs" come from? Cities have urban cores surrounding the immediate downtown. At least around here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Newspaperguy View Post
    Not necessarily. If a system were set up to heavily tax fuel for individuals but not business and commercial use, the result would be a push away from driving without radically increasing other prices.
    OK lets look at it this way, people pay more fuel tax, so people eat out less, restraints and their suppliers get less business and end up laying off people, that is just one ripple effect. This is why I hate the Democratic party as they think they can tax their way out of every problem, if it moves tax it! Oh an we need a new social program as the people are too stupid to take care of them selves, this is completely stupid thinking.I believe in free enterprise where it is survival of the fittest, where you eather make a profit and live well or starve it is up to you not some stupid government hand out.

  16. #16
    put our Heads Together cerewa's Avatar
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    Where does this view of "its downtown or suburbs" come from? Cities have urban cores surrounding the immediate downtown. At least around here.
    Well, for some cities, even if the desirability of living in the city instead of the 'burbs goes up, the number of people in the city can't go up too much.

    There will be economic pressure to fill all the abandoned houses (some cities have very few) and to fill up bedrooms in houses or apartments that are under-occupied. Construction on abandoned lots can absorb some increase in demand, and to some degree the construction of additional living space on existing lots.

    But cities can absorb only so much increase in density, before people will be literally forced to live outside the city for lack of an available home in the city.
    Some awesome folks who are working to give Haitians the ability to manage their safety and their lives:
    Haiti Partners

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by CommuterRun View Post
    Not at 1 BPS to a little over 2 USD.
    Back from a 3 hour nap

    I forgot to mulitply by 2 USD per BPS, Thanks.
    Quote Originally Posted by M_S View Post
    ..... but at the end of the day we're all just dorks riding around on bicycles, right?

  18. #18
    Dubito ergo sum. patc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cerewa View Post
    Well, for some cities, even if the desirability of living in the city instead of the 'burbs goes up, the number of people in the city can't go up too much..
    I agree that without re-building densification can only go so far. That wasn't my point, however. I often see cities mentioned as having only a "downtown" and "suburbs", totally ignoring the middle-ground.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wahoonc View Post
    I question the reporter's logic on pinning the cost of oil to the collapse of the sub prime market. He also shows his lack of education on the whole mortgage/sub prime issue. It is the sub prime Adjustable Rate Mortgages that are at the root of the problem, that and people speculating.... I wonder what the building rate would have been if they hadn't played games in the mortgage market?

    I do believe we are in for some very interesting times.

    Aaron
    The collapse of the sub prime/real estate market is going to put us into a deep recession. The high price of fuel is only going to make it worse, very similar to what we went through in the early 90's.

    Keep in mind, the whole real estate bubble was created because the federal reserve was dropping interest rates to keep us from going into a recession thanks to the war. Well, the correction is about to happen and the bubble is about to burst for it's a long time coming. The feds are not about to drop interest rates as they did before so the hay day of real estate speculation are over.

  20. #20
    Dare to be weird!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dahon.Steve View Post
    ...The feds are not about to drop interest rates as they did before...
    They just did, and as a result the dollar started declining at a much faster rate than before. Tonight's dollar index = 77.8. A few weeks ago the conventional wisdom was that if it fell below 80.0 we would be in serious currency trouble.

  21. #21
    Dare to be weird!
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    Quote Originally Posted by patc View Post
    Where does this view of "its downtown or suburbs" come from? Cities have urban cores surrounding the immediate downtown. At least around here.
    This is potentially a very interesting discussion that deserves its own topic.

  22. #22
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    The other part of the problem is the Sub prime train wreck. Lenders who lent money to people to people that had no business financially buying a house in the first place. Then those balloon payments hit and holy crap I can't afford my house! This I blame the banks and the home buyers that had no clue as to what they were signing. The market will work it self out and it won't be the end of the world. I am just glad I didn't sign one of those sub prime scams and bought at a good time.

  23. #23
    Senior Member Mr. Fly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Specialized fan View Post
    OK lets look at it this way, people pay more fuel tax, so people eat out less, restraints and their suppliers get less business and end up laying off people, that is just one ripple effect. This is why I hate the Democratic party as they think they can tax their way out of every problem, if it moves tax it! Oh an we need a new social program as the people are too stupid to take care of them selves, this is completely stupid thinking.I believe in free enterprise where it is survival of the fittest, where you eather make a profit and live well or starve it is up to you not some stupid government hand out.
    Let's take your argument and turn it around. We live in a society. If you leave the people to fend for themselves (survival of the fittest), what do you think will happen to those less fortunate? For the honest ones, they may end up in severe trouble or become homeless; the less scrupulous ones may decide that their survival depends on robbing you. Take the health care issue for example. If you don't have a way to address those with no insurance (and I'm not advocating universal healthcare here), they will 1. only go to the doctor when it's really bad (and thus expensive to fix), and 2. not pay after receiving the care (because they can't afford it). In the end, who ends up paying? Yes, it's actually the ones with health insurance that subsidize those without. Note: as a humanist, I won't consider denying critical treatments.

    Really, there is no easy way out unless we can ingrain personal responsibility in everyone. Maybe that should be the test for citizenship (similar to in Starship Troopers). I'm really all for being responsible, and I do hate subsidizing to take care of someone else's problem. But in a society, that's unfortunately what one needs to do to hold everything together.

    Of course, if you chose to be a hermit and live away from everyone else...

  24. #24
    bragi bragi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newspaperguy View Post
    Not necessarily. If a system were set up to heavily tax fuel for individuals but not business and commercial use, the result would be a push away from driving without radically increasing other prices.
    That's a sensible idea, actually, but it'll never, ever happen. Any legislator who tried to advance such a program would be engaging in political suicide. (Unless things got so bad that the average person saw the sense in it; perhaps an Australian after a few more years of relentless, CO2-driven drought.)
    If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

  25. #25
    Senior Member Newspaperguy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Specialized fan View Post
    OK lets look at it this way, people pay more fuel tax, so people eat out less, restraints and their suppliers get less business and end up laying off people, that is just one ripple effect. This is why I hate the Democratic party as they think they can tax their way out of every problem, if it moves tax it! Oh an we need a new social program as the people are too stupid to take care of them selves, this is completely stupid thinking.I believe in free enterprise where it is survival of the fittest, where you eather make a profit and live well or starve it is up to you not some stupid government hand out.
    If your fuel costs rise and your wage stays the same, you have two choices. You can drive the way you have in the past and cut back in the other areas of your life or you can cut back on your driving and have the money left for things that matter to you a little more. Your choice.

    I'd rather spend my money on things other than fuel where possible.

    For numerous reasons, not everyone can or will go car-free, but there are still plenty of ways to save on fuel costs for someone going car-light.
    Keeping the vehicle properly tuned up
    Carpooling
    Using transit where available
    Planning trips in order to drive less
    Staying closer to home for shopping and evenings out
    Replacing the gas guzzler with a more fuel efficient vehicle
    Walking and cycling more
    Life is good.

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