The Expected Economic Impact of an Energy Downturn
03-26-08, 11:10 PM
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03-29-08, 04:08 AM
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Oh the doom, Oh the gloom! Some of what the writer speaks of is obvious ie, prices are going up.
I am not in the oil industry, so I cannot predict how much fuel will go up, but being in the food production industry, I can tell you with confidence that you will see your food bill go up nearly double from last year. How do I know? Because our company sold wholesale food ingredients this month for prices between 200% to 400% of what we sold them for last year.
I can't explain the rise in prices. It is a market pull. One thing we notice is that foreign buyers are coming on really strong and buying like crazy. Perhaps it has to do with the low valued dollar. We can hardly keep up with the price increases. Just about when we offer something out at a certain price, we find that the price has gone up already. We had some ingredients rise in price 40% in the past two weeks alone. This has never happened on such a large scale and so broadly over so many commodities.
I read government reports that food has increased between 4% to 7% in the past 12 months. I don't know where they are doing their shopping, but that isn't what I am seeing and it sure doesn't jibe with what I know is coming.
Look at a 10 lb bag of flour, for example. $2.75 this time last year. Today it is $6.25.
Eggs; $0.89/dozen last year. $2.00+ today and quickly rising.
Rice is triple what it was last year for all grades.
You are going to see an exponential rise in almost all fruits and fruit products with this next harvest - much of which has already been sold even before harvest. Commodity prices for most fruits and fruit products (juices and purees, for example) are priced two to four times what they were sold at last year.
This isn't an estimate. This is reality. I am surprised that the prices in the grocery stores do not yet fully reflect these increases. I guess they are priced at purchased inventory prices, but as last year's stock is sold off and replaced with these higher cost items, the price has to go up.
Fasten your seatbelts, Folks. Better yet, leave the car in the driveway and bike. The numbers of bicyclists and pedestrians is bound to increase as many people have to choose food over fuel.
I am not in the oil industry, so I cannot predict how much fuel will go up, but being in the food production industry, I can tell you with confidence that you will see your food bill go up nearly double from last year. How do I know? Because our company sold wholesale food ingredients this month for prices between 200% to 400% of what we sold them for last year.
I can't explain the rise in prices. It is a market pull. One thing we notice is that foreign buyers are coming on really strong and buying like crazy. Perhaps it has to do with the low valued dollar. We can hardly keep up with the price increases. Just about when we offer something out at a certain price, we find that the price has gone up already. We had some ingredients rise in price 40% in the past two weeks alone. This has never happened on such a large scale and so broadly over so many commodities.
I read government reports that food has increased between 4% to 7% in the past 12 months. I don't know where they are doing their shopping, but that isn't what I am seeing and it sure doesn't jibe with what I know is coming.
Look at a 10 lb bag of flour, for example. $2.75 this time last year. Today it is $6.25.
Eggs; $0.89/dozen last year. $2.00+ today and quickly rising.
Rice is triple what it was last year for all grades.
You are going to see an exponential rise in almost all fruits and fruit products with this next harvest - much of which has already been sold even before harvest. Commodity prices for most fruits and fruit products (juices and purees, for example) are priced two to four times what they were sold at last year.
This isn't an estimate. This is reality. I am surprised that the prices in the grocery stores do not yet fully reflect these increases. I guess they are priced at purchased inventory prices, but as last year's stock is sold off and replaced with these higher cost items, the price has to go up.
Fasten your seatbelts, Folks. Better yet, leave the car in the driveway and bike. The numbers of bicyclists and pedestrians is bound to increase as many people have to choose food over fuel.
Last edited by mike; 03-29-08 at 04:16 AM.
