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Video of biking past a gas shortage

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Video of biking past a gas shortage

Old 10-06-08, 07:32 AM
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Originally Posted by gwd
Nice way to avoid your own topic- that mass transit can't work in Houston. I didn't mention class warfare at all. I'm not sure what class warfare is. Is class warfare a person who can afford a car and suburban McMansion choosing not to? In other words, a person abandoning the destructive lifestyle which is typical of his economic status?
But, you are wrong, mass transit can work in Houston. As for class warfare, reread your post to which I responded.
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Old 10-06-08, 08:01 AM
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[quote=Dahon.Steve;7610173]This is what's happening in many places around the country.

You're seeing poor areas being "rezoned" for business and luxury condos and once that happens, property taxes go through the roof. The poor and middle class are squeezed out of the neighborhood and forced to live elsewhere.
This is a good thing?

Slowly but surely, more and more people are moving back to the cities. The next generation is not going to live in the burbs unless they inherit the properties from parents or relatives. The rising cost of the single family home and two cars is rapidly becoming unaffordable. In fact, home prices in the burbs often equals or exceeds the price of apartments in many cities. With loans becoming scarce and difficult to attain, few will be able to live like the way their parents did.
Yes, slooooooowly some people are moving back to cities. Its the newest thing for singles and couples to move back to the city. For many, its the latest fad. The next generation, except for the higher income, are not going to be able to afford the city. The cost of housing, rental and owner-occupied has sky rocketed, driving many out. The very diversity many moved to the inner city for is disappearing.

As for loans becoming more scarce and difficult to attain, in the short-term, because of the recent credit crisis, that may be true. But, the growth of the suburbs and home ownership for middle class America did not depend on sub-prime loans and predatory lending. That's a fairly recent phenomena. Availability of loans for home purchase will return to a normal level more like that of previous decades.

You may not like the fact that our generation will be the last to have motor transport. However, we will never again discover an inexpensive fuel source in such great abundance as oil. Houston was created in large part due to this incredible discovery and now we are going to regress back to a simpler day as we finish it off. Our current lifestyle was never sustainable and we will go kicking and screaming as we leave the 21st century without the motorcar.
Are you sure there will be no personal transport for future generations? That seems a bizarre prediction. Its one we've all heard before, but its far fetched to believe we are going to regress to simpler days. All signs point to our lives becoming more, not less complicated.

When you think about it, there was a time (about 100 year ago) when no one in Houston owned cars. It's true! Go to the library and ask for the local newspaper (in microfilm) dated around 1908. You will find that people got along just fine without cars. It wasn't impossible and we are headed in that direction again. In fact, you won't find a single person complaining that life 100 years ago was miserable without a combustion engine. Working, shopping, marrying and everything you're doing today will continue 150 years from now in Houston except without an automobile. That's due to the fact, our personal motorized transport system was only temporary until the oil ran out. But no one told you this.
Obviously, you've been reading old issues of Mother Earth News from the early 70's. Yes, over a century ago, there were few cars. As one who holds a degree in American history, I'm fully aware that once there were no cars in Houston. Houston then was a much smaller city, just as Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Phoenix, and even L.A. were smaller. Its very doubtful we are going to return to those places being small once again. Trends point to them continuing to grow and prosper. What will change is the use of personal transport, not its existence.

I sometimes wonder how great life is going to be in Houston in 2108. If it resembles the way life was like in 1908, we will most certainly miss out. Unfortunately, we were born 100 years too early and 100 years too late to enjoy Houston when it was and will be once again, car free.
Houston will have more people. There will be resolution of its transit problem. Suburbs will continue to be around and continue to house the greater majority of families.

Yours is an apocalyptic view of the future. A more enlightened person would see a mix of personal vehicles that use from various sources, good living in decentralized parts of the metropolis (suburbs) with job centers located nearby, well developed mass transit, a healthy center city, and a good mix of housing opportunity. Many may chose to live car free, most will move toward more of a car light lifestyle. And, the problems facing us in the near future in regard to the use of petroleum is not just a problem for Houston. Most cities that have continued to grow over the last 100 years face the same ones, some to a higher degree. Rather than centering on Houston, why not look around and see how the future impacts the whole country?

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Old 10-06-08, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by grayloon
Yes, slooooooowly some people are moving back to cities. Its the newest thing for singles and couples to move back to the city.
You tend to underestimate the rapidity of large migrations in response to unpredictable economic and social forces.

As for loans becoming more scarce and difficult to attain, in the short-term, because of the recent credit crisis, that may be true. But, the growth of the suburbs and home ownership for middle class America did not depend on sub-prime loans and predatory lending. That's a fairly recent phenomena. Availability of loans for home purchase will return to a normal level more like that of previous decades.
I wish you were in charge of economic policy right now, since you seem to have a lot more confidence in your predictions, compared to the experts in Wall St. and Washington.

Are you sure there will be no personal transport for future generations? That seems a bizarre prediction. Its one we've all heard before, but its far fetched to believe we are going to regress to simpler days. All signs point to our lives becoming more, not less complicated.
You are so focused on economic and social factors that you're missing even more basic physical realities. It's very doubtful that the earth can continue to sustain personal motor vehicles of any type. At this point it's hard to imagine our lives becoming more complicated. Surveys reveal that people are becoming more and more dissatisfied with their lives in modern developed countries. The graph of prosperity and happiness apears to be an inverted "U" curve.

Trends point to them continuing to grow and prosper.
Um...have you read any newspapers in the last few months?


Most cities that have continued to grow over the last 100 years face the same ones, some to a higher degree. Rather than centering on Houston, why not look around and see how the future impacts the whole country?
You might be right, but the UN predicts that population will soar to about 9 or 10 billion in the next 50 years, hold steady for a while, then begin a slow decline. Already birth rates are well below replacement in most of Europe and developed Asia. US population is growing only because of immigration. Birth rates in the less developed world are beginning to plateau.
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Old 10-06-08, 10:18 AM
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[QUOTE=Roody;7611950]
You tend to underestimate the rapidity of large migrations in response to unpredictable economic and social forces.
No, I do not underestimate migration due to unpredictable economic and social forces. At this point, though there is trouble in the credit markets, resulting in an effect on other markets, there are not the economic and social forces to direct a move toward the inner-city.



I wish you were in charge of economic policy right now, since you seem to have a lot more confidence in your predictions, compared to the experts in Wall St. and Washington.
I'm not sure which predictions your are talking about. Most predictions I see are about short-term affects of our current situation. Historically, from what I've read, this is not the end of times as far as the economy of the US and the world is concerned. It may get worse before it gets better, but it will get better. There will be changes, but the extent of those changes remains to be seen.



You are so focused on economic and social factors that you're missing even more basic physical realities. It's very doubtful that the earth can continue to sustain personal motor vehicles of any type. At this point it's hard to imagine our lives becoming more complicated. Surveys reveal that people are becoming more and more dissatisfied with their lives in modern developed countries. The graph of prosperity and happiness apears to be an inverted "U" curve.
Personal vehicles will continue to exist. How they are powered and used may change. Yes, I focus on social and economic factors. Those are major drivers.



Um...have you read any newspapers in the last few months?

I read much more than the newspapers.




You might be right, but the UN predicts that population will soar to about 9 or 10 billion in the next 50 years, hold steady for a while, then begin a slow decline. Already birth rates are well below replacement in most of Europe and developed Asia. US population is growing only because of immigration. Birth rates in the less developed world are beginning to plateau.
Growth of metro areas is not dependent just on birthrates. Those forces that you mentioned that move large groups of people are not going to stop anytime soon. Jobs continue to be in metro areas and, as long as work remains in those places, people will move to areas where there is work. The issue facing us is less of one in which there is a move to the city, but of working with what we now have and making it work. Part of the solution may be more moving to the city, but its not an exclusive solution. Nor may it be a desirable solution.

Immigration has always been a factor in the growth of our country. Immigrant populations have higher birth rates, as do ethnic groups not immigrants which will continue to cause an increase in population. Yes, at some point, the world population may plateau. How declining birthrates affect populations and where they elect to live remains unknown.

The bottom line, though, is we are all bad about predictions of the long-term future. Even those who call themselves futurist get it wrong as much or more than they get it right.
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Old 10-06-08, 10:31 AM
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Grayloon,

The environment and sustainability don't seem to enter into your vision of the future. To me, these issues lend great urgency to human attempts to predict and control future living patterns.
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Old 10-06-08, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
Grayloon,

The environment and sustainability don't seem to enter into your vision of the future. To me, these issues lend great urgency to human attempts to predict and control future living patterns.

While it would be great if everyone adopted at least a car light lifestyle tomorrow, I don't see that happening. I'm not an optimist in regards to the environment. I've been on the periphery of that fight for a long time, sometimes in the middle of it. Its going to take a lot of education and, God forbid, maybe an environmental disaster or two to get real movement toward saving the environment. As a people, we are muddlers, just going along day to day until confronted with a problem requiring us to change. Most people are not at that point in their lives when it comes to the environment. Hopefully, it won't take a disaster or two to get that focus.

As for sustainability, its not clear what you mean by sustainability. Can we maintain our current dependence on petroleum? Probably not at current usage levels. Can we maintain lifestyles that enable people to live decentralized lives, I think so, though there will be changes in how that's done.

Its all a guessing game. I'll venture a few. In ten years there isn't going to be a tremendous change in how we get around and where we live. Some of us may elect to drive less, combine trips, ride bikes, and live closer to work. But, I see no radical change. After that, who knows? What I don't see is a return to the lifestyle of 1900 as one poster suggested.
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Old 10-06-08, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by grayloon
What I don't see is a return to the lifestyle of 1900 as one poster suggested.
That depends. If we don't do anything as oil peaks and the climate warms, we probably will return to a 1900 lifestyle--1900 B.C., that is.

If we make some wise decisions in the very near future, we have a chance for a very comfortable "post-industrial" technology.
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Old 10-06-08, 01:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
That depends. If we don't do anything as oil peaks and the climate warms, we probably will return to a 1900 lifestyle--1900 B.C., that is.

If we make some wise decisions in the very near future, we have a chance for a very comfortable "post-industrial" technology.
No disagreement that we face problems if there are no changes in the near future. The very first step needs to be toward conservation of resources, especially petroleum. Unfortunately, the only time that comes into play, it seems, is when supplies get costly or short. And, with the exception of a small segment of the population, a dip in price and/or increase of supply seems to direct people back to old habits.

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Old 10-06-08, 03:05 PM
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Personal vehicles will continue to exist. How they are powered and used may change.
I think it's highly doubtful that large numbers of personal 3000 pound vehicles will continue to exist. (this is the weight of a car like a honda civic)

They just use too darn many resources. Personal vehicles weighing no more than 500 pounds, with fuel economy to match, are much more likely.
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Old 10-06-08, 05:47 PM
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Originally Posted by grayloon
No disagreement that we face problems if there are no changes in the near future. The very first step needs to be toward conservation of resources, especially petroleum. Unfortunately, the only time that comes into play, it seems, is when supplies get costly or short. And, with the exception of a small segment of the population, a dip in price and/or increase of supply seems to direct people back to old habits.
Which brings us back to the notion that we should have people actually paying the full cost for energy--both because it's fair, and because high prices will encourage conservation.

I don't know about Atlanta, but gas prices have dropped a lot in Michigan since this thread started. Of course, everybody's so upset about the economy they don't even notice the lower gas prices!
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Old 10-06-08, 05:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
Which brings us back to the notion that we should have people actually paying the full cost for energy--both because it's fair, and because high prices will encourage conservation.

I don't know about Atlanta, but gas prices have dropped a lot in Michigan since this thread started. Of course, everybody's so upset about the economy they don't even notice the lower gas prices!
I'm not sure what that would be. The market sets the price. Of late, speculators have caused some of the run up in price and, as they've backed out of the market, the price has dropped. From what I've read, local oil experts (there are many here) predict a drop to about $70 a barrel. They also predict a real increase, not one from speculation, to about $300. The immediate impact will be a drop in price, but a whopping increase over the next few years.

There are many costs associated with how we transport ourselves and use energy. Some are quantifiable, some may not be so easy to count. More tax on energy is one method of getting to the real costs. But, that's not something I'd support unless it was dedicated and not general revenue money.
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Old 10-06-08, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by grayloon
I'm not sure what that would be. The market sets the price. Of late, speculators have caused some of the run up in price and, as they've backed out of the market, the price has dropped. From what I've read, local oil experts (there are many here) predict a drop to about $70 a barrel. They also predict a real increase, not one from speculation, to about $300. The immediate impact will be a drop in price, but a whopping increase over the next few years.

There are many costs associated with how we transport ourselves and use energy. Some are quantifiable, some may not be so easy to count. More tax on energy is one method of getting to the real costs. But, that's not something I'd support unless it was dedicated and not general revenue money
.
The market has always failed when it comes to setting prices. The only ways I know to pass along full prices of energy is taxes or lawsuits. What if every asthma patient, car crash victim and wounded Iraq War veteran sued the oil companies? Somehow, I think taxes would be more efficient than litigation.

How would you feel about a revenue neutral carbon tax? That would bring enormous financial benefits to those of us who are already carfree or carlight. Even some of your fellow conservatives are getting behind the idea of a revenue neutral tax.
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