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  1. #26
    Long Distance Cyclist Machka's Avatar
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    This was posted in December 2008 (if I'm reading the date right ... to me, it actually says January 12, 2008). Nevertheless, 5 years have now passed.

    So ... how well did your predictions work out?

    Got any predictions for the next 5 years?

  2. #27
    Long Distance Cyclist Machka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machka View Post
    I'm just wrapping up a 5-year plan ... I'll wrap it up this coming fall.

    In the fall of 2004, I sold, tossed, and gave away about half my stuff, then packed up the rest and put it into storage. I quit my nice, secure job with the great benefits package, and gave up my comfortable apartment. Then I flew to Australia, and spent the next 3 months cycling around Australia, and living out of panniers.

    When I returned to Canada, I settled into a couple rooms in a basement, and proceeded to work toward my Bachelor of Education.

    If all goes well, I'll graduate this coming April, and will once again go through my remaining things (which have been in storage all this time) to see what I can part with. Actually, I'm going to start that task in just a few days, but won't likely finish till next summer.

    And by late summer, I will be embarking on a new 5-year plan.

    I don't know what my new 5-year plan will involve yet, but I hope there will be lots of travel and lots of cycling.

    Well ... my first 5-year plan wrapped up pretty much as planned. I graduated with my Bachelor of Education, I went through my things and downsized to 300 cubic feet ... and I moved to Australia. The surprise in the plan was the Victorian Bushfire and the year living well off the grid, very remotely, in an extremely rustic cabin in the hills for my first year in Australia.


    The next 5-year plan, between 2009 and 2013 included acquiring status in Australia, acquiring employment, paying off debt, saving money, travelling around the world for 8 months, moving a few more times within Australia, travelling to many parts of Australia, and of course cycling here, there, and everywhere. So ... lots of travel and lots of cycling as mentioned above.


    We're embarking on a new plan now and are speculating on several ideas including housing, further education, more travel and lots of cycling and other sports. We'll probably spend this year developing those plans.

    One of the things we're hoping for is a little less driving for work. At the very least, shorter distances. But that will be a challenge given that our places of employment are 32 km apart.

  3. #28
    Sophomoric Member Roody's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roody View Post
    Those are some great aspirations, gerv. I hope they come true.

    As for me, I kinda hope things don't change too much. I mostly like my life the way it is. I would like to buy a really nice bike, but so far something's come up every time I save enough money.
    My prediction that things wouldn't change much turned out to be wrong. One day in March of 2011 my son said that he and his family were being kicked out of their home. By that same evening, my 800 sf apartment was crowded with my son and DIL, their 11 year old son, and her mother. Along with their two cats. We managed in the cramped apartment until August 2012, when we finally moved into a bigger house. And acquired another car and just last week a dog. Sometimes I miss my peace and quiet, but I enjoy the challenges of living with a young family. I really am gung-ho on intergenerational families now!

    I don't ride as much as I used to. Work is just a short walk from the new house. My family has a car, and my DIL does almost all of the household shopping. A lot of my riding now is recreational. I still do a lot of bike rides and walks with my grandson, but at 14 he has less time to spend with his grandpa.


    "Think Outside the Cage"

  4. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roody View Post
    . I really am gung-ho on intergenerational families now!
    This would have been the prediction to make. Without some kind of education or training it is likely you'll move in with parents. That America is more family oriented is a good thing. How we got there, not so good. My friends dad went through the depression and always said the best preparation was to learn how to grow your own food. Those of us than can do so probably should. That families were closer was a given because of existing economic hardships and less opportunity.

    Anyway, my prediction was pie in the sky. No price floor for California gas prices.
    I love to commute and ride. Keeping a positive focus.

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  5. #30
    Senior Member Smallwheels's Avatar
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    The deep water fishing industry in the Pacific will cease to exist in the northern hemisphere due to radiation poisoning from the Fukushima power plant disaster. That will affect a big industry on the West Coast. This includes salmon and other fish caught by individuals. Forget about eating tuna for the rest of your lives.

    Wealthy Japanese families are already abandoning the country because they don't believe the lies from the government about radiation levels in Tokyo and other areas.

    Los Angeles will need to shut down their desalinization plant but probably won't. Then millions of Angelenos will be polluted by radiation. California coastal living won't be worth the cost. The radiation pumped into the water system of Los Angeles will eventually be acknowledged and the city will be quickly abandoned by the wealthy and the remainder of the population will scatter to other cities that don't purify salt water for their drinking systems. Toronto Canada is already making numerous TV shows for the American market. They just might become the de facto movie capital of North America.

    The new forced-down-our-throats free trade deal with Asia will further depress jobs in the USA. Thus more people will be forced to ride bicycles due to poverty. This problem will check the resurgence of the automobile industry.

    In five years the citizens of the USA will be so fed up with the banking industry that we'll abandon it for alternative currencies like bitcoins.

    Since I want to live in an RV I will buy some form of van or truck. When I do that I might give up riding a bicycle and use my Xootr or perhaps buy a Swifty Scooter if they ever start manufacturing their people powered scooters again. I like the motion of kicking along. A Swifty Scooter (or any type of push scooter with big wheels) will be faster than my Xootr. If I were living car free I would keep a bicycle because they are just plain faster.

    I do not believe that many more cities will improve their bicycle infrastructure. Only the cities that have already made such commitments will continue it.

    Due to the aging population of baby boomers the economy will be doing worse starting in the first quarter of 2014. By the end of 2015 the stock market will be down at least 8000 points. The housing market will be much worse than it is today.

    If we want to survive we all need to find a way to support ourselves without depending on a job from somebody else or the government. I'm attempting to do it but I don't know if I'll succeed. I'll keep trying until I do.
    Smallwheels

    Take my stuff, please. I have way too much. My current goal is to have all of my possessions fit onto a large bicycle trailer. Really.

  6. #31
    Long Distance Cyclist Machka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post
    I do not believe that many more cities will improve their bicycle infrastructure. Only the cities that have already made such commitments will continue it.
    I agree with this. I've worked in government, and particularly in the infrastructure department of government, and bicycle infrastructure is very low on the priority list, and depends heavily on grant funding. If there's no grant funding, there's no bicycle infrastructure.

  7. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machka View Post
    I agree with this. I've worked in government, and particularly in the infrastructure department of government, and bicycle infrastructure is very low on the priority list, and depends heavily on grant funding. If there's no grant funding, there's no bicycle infrastructure.
    The funding varies by location. Locally, our bike infrastructure is currently being paid for by a bond measure (something like $50-100/parcel). However, wherever possible the traffic planners do try to leverage what money they have to get matching grants, with varying degrees of success. That same strategy is used for other infrastructure as well. (Highways, sewer treatment plant, storm water management facilities, air pollution measurement devices, to name a few of the things that have been paid for with a combination of local taxes and matching grants from the state and/or feds in recent years.)

    I doubt the grants for bike infrastructure will dry up over the next few years. With a depressed economy that has people looking for nonexistent jobs, it's unlikely that the entire government will decide to continue to punish the economy with austerity, especially with the abundant data indicating the long-term harm such policies do to the national economy, not to mention the unnecessary suffering inflicted on the unemployed. (Side note: Great Britain, which elected a group of Austerians, has managed to actually do worse in terms of recovering from the Lesser Depression than it did during the Great Depression. Truly Amazing!)

  8. #33
    Bicycle Repair Man !!! Sixty Fiver's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lamplight View Post
    where would i like to be in five years? I'd like to be living somewhere cooler and saner, and be doing something i enjoy for a living, instead of what i've always done, which is to simply try to find the most tolerable job at the moment.
    :d

  9. #34
    Senior Member Lamplight's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sixty Fiver View Post
    :d
    Totally forgot about posting that way back when. Well I've accomplished the location part of that goal, and while I wouldn't say I enjoy my job, it ain't half bad!

  10. #35
    In the right lane gerv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lamplight View Post
    Totally forgot about posting that way back when. Well I've accomplished the location part of that goal, and while I wouldn't say I enjoy my job, it ain't half bad!
    Sounds like a success story...that we've been following for a while!!

  11. #36
    Been Around Awhile I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post
    The deep water fishing industry in the Pacific will cease to exist in the northern hemisphere due to radiation poisoning from the Fukushima power plant disaster. That will affect a big industry on the West Coast. This includes salmon and other fish caught by individuals. Forget about eating tuna for the rest of your lives.

    Wealthy Japanese families are already abandoning the country because they don't believe the lies from the government about radiation levels in Tokyo and other areas.

    Los Angeles will need to shut down their desalinization plant but probably won't. Then millions of Angelenos will be polluted by radiation. California coastal living won't be worth the cost. The radiation pumped into the water system of Los Angeles will eventually be acknowledged and the city will be quickly abandoned by the wealthy and the remainder of the population will scatter to other cities that don't purify salt water for their drinking systems. Toronto Canada is already making numerous TV shows for the American market. They just might become the de facto movie capital of North America.

    The new forced-down-our-throats free trade deal with Asia will further depress jobs in the USA. Thus more people will be forced to ride bicycles due to poverty. This problem will check the resurgence of the automobile industry.

    In five years the citizens of the USA will be so fed up with the banking industry that we'll abandon it for alternative currencies like bitcoins.
    Your predictions are so dark; are you sure you weren't staring too long at a bowling ball rather than into your crystal ball?

  12. #37
    Senior Member mister's Avatar
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    I like to under commit and over deliver.

    1. I will leave California. For good.
    2. All my debt, minus student loans and a mortgage, will be paid off.
    3. Apple will release the iPhone 9s. It will look exactly the same as it does today, but will have a retina scanner to unlock it. The NSA "secretly" will use this to gain access to personal emails, etc. of millions of Americans.
    Brilliant!

  13. #38
    Long Distance Cyclist Machka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mister View Post
    3. Apple will release the iPhone 9s. It will look exactly the same as it does today, but will have a retina scanner to unlock it. The NSA "secretly" will use this to gain access to personal emails, etc. of millions of Americans.
    If you're right about this one, I'm glad I'm not American!

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machka View Post
    If you're right about this one, I'm glad I'm not American!
    Five Eyes
    Welcome to the family Machka.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UKUSA_Agreement
    I love to commute and ride. Keeping a positive focus.

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  15. #40
    In the right lane gerv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machka View Post
    If you're right about this one, I'm glad I'm not American!
    If you think they're checking passports on your emails at the gateway... think again. They're reading everything... from everyone.

  16. #41
    Been Around Awhile I-Like-To-Bike's Avatar
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    Here is what Punxsutawney Phil's shadowy crystal ball said today.
    "More Winter!"
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/weathe...-phil/5101379/

  17. #42
    bragi bragi's Avatar
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    I didn't make any predictions last time, but here are my 5-year predictions now, in 2014:

    1. I will still mostly get around by walking, riding a bicycle and using public transport;
    2. Every winter, I will dream about moving someplace sunny, but then the next summer will invariably be really pleasant, so I'll never get around to actually moving. (The last time I moved away, I missed it so much I came back.)
    3. I will realize my dream of riding a bike across Mongolia. (I may settle for Australia, though; the infrastructure is a little better...)

    4. The number of bicyclists in the US will level off and probably even decline slightly, but in a few places, mostly large urban areas in the northern tier of the country, bicycling will continue to take on increasing importance as part of the the transportation mix. Elsewhere in the US, the car will still be king, but many families, out of necessity, will make the decision that they can get by with one car instead of two or three.
    5. China, being an authoritarian/paternalistic state with the political means to do so, will reverse course somewhat and back off on its headlong embrace of the automobile, once it becomes more and more apparent to the regime how expensive and economically unsustainable it is. India, on the other hand, will continue down its current ruinous path and build a lot of freeways that most of its population cannot afford to use, but will subsidize anyway through the taxes they pay.
    6. Mayor Rob Ford of Toronto, despite being the bike-hating, drunken, drug-abusing, idiot buffoon that he is, will be inexplicably re-elected.
    If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

  18. #43
    Sophomoric Member Roody's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bragi View Post
    ....
    6. Mayor Rob Ford of Toronto, despite being the bike-hating, drunken, drug-abusing, idiot buffoon that he is, will be inexplicably re-elected....
    ...He will get off the coke and alcohol, taking up bike riding as part of his rehab program. Unfortunately, he will fall off the wagon a year later, drunkenly ride his bike into Lake Ontario, and float to Buffalo, where he will be acclaimed mayor-for-life. His first act as mayor of Buffalo will be to install 200 miles of covered and heated bike lanes.


    "Think Outside the Cage"

  19. #44
    In the right lane gerv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
    Here is what Punxsutawney Phil's shadowy crystal ball said today.
    "More Winter!"
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/weathe...-phil/5101379/
    Thanks! I needed that information...

  20. #45
    Sophomoric Member Roody's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by I-Like-To-Bike View Post
    Here is what Punxsutawney Phil's shadowy crystal ball said today.
    "More Winter!"
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/weathe...-phil/5101379/
    That's an easy prediction to make. I don't know about Punxsutawney, but here in Lansing we ALWAYS have six more weeks of winter after February 2. It only seems like six more months!


    "Think Outside the Cage"

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