Are we reaching peak car?
#1
cycleobsidian
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Southwestern Ontario
Posts: 441
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Are we reaching peak car?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...articlecontent
This article appeared in the Globe and Mail in October.
The article is good but the comments afterward are even better. Almost all of them have a similar philosophy to those of us that like to frequent LCF.
We are not alone.
This article appeared in the Globe and Mail in October.
The article is good but the comments afterward are even better. Almost all of them have a similar philosophy to those of us that like to frequent LCF.
We are not alone.
#2
LET'S ROLL
Interesting article.
And that, Mr. Litman says, should be enough in itself to push economists, planners and politicians to take a good hard look at the future. “A lot of current policies are misguided,” he says. “They might have made sense 40 or 50 years ago, but now it makes absolutely no sense to continue the policy distortions that encourage auto use.”
And that, Mr. Litman says, should be enough in itself to push economists, planners and politicians to take a good hard look at the future. “A lot of current policies are misguided,” he says. “They might have made sense 40 or 50 years ago, but now it makes absolutely no sense to continue the policy distortions that encourage auto use.”
__________________
One day: www.youtube.com/watch?v=20X43026ukY&list=UUHyRS8bRu6zPoymgKaIoDLA&index=1
One day: www.youtube.com/watch?v=20X43026ukY&list=UUHyRS8bRu6zPoymgKaIoDLA&index=1
#4
Pedaled too far.
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: La Petite Roche
Posts: 12,851
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 7 Times
in
7 Posts
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...articlecontent
This article appeared in the Globe and Mail in October.
The article is good but the comments afterward are even better. Almost all of them have a similar philosophy to those of us that like to frequent LCF.
We are not alone.
This article appeared in the Globe and Mail in October.
The article is good but the comments afterward are even better. Almost all of them have a similar philosophy to those of us that like to frequent LCF.
We are not alone.
As Dynodonn says, 1.7 percent drop is not much. But I find that there is any drop at all is tremendously significant.
Here is a talk that gives one hope. People tend to do what they see being done. So the more people see that living car free is possible, the more they will join in. It's quite an amazing talk. Do Lectures- Understanding the super social ape
"We are ‘a super-social ape’. We exist to converse, to chat, to gossip. Whole social movements can be explained by utilising this core theory." Mark Earls
__________________
"He who serves all, best serves himself" Jack London
#5
Banned
#6
Lotus Monomaniac
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 1,046
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 4 Times
in
4 Posts
I spent (wasted) too much money on cars over the years. Now I just buy the basic model I need to get the job done. My love affair is long gone.
#7
cycleobsidian
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Southwestern Ontario
Posts: 441
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
More importantly to me are the readers comments. Highly favourable to car-lite/car-free living. Not bad for a newspaper with a large national circulation, not just Toronto-centric.
#8
Pedaled too far.
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: La Petite Roche
Posts: 12,851
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 11 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 7 Times
in
7 Posts
I met a woman yesterday, she did not know that I was car-free and out of the blue she made an observation about public transit in Little Rock and asked me whether I thought it was possible to live without a car in Little Rock. She was pleasantly surprised to discover that I had been car-free in Little Rock for almost 7 years.
As Mark Earls points out in his talk, people live to be social. We take our cues from each other. If you watch the video, you will see one man dancing at a concert. For the longest while it is just him. But then another man joins him. Then after a while, a 3rd and 4th people join. Then more, and then more and more. It's not a straight line progression. In terms of the video, I'd say we are at the point where the second man starts dancing. It doesn't look significant, but it is. "One Robin does not make a Spring" as the saying goes, but it's generally a good indicator.
__________________
"He who serves all, best serves himself" Jack London
Last edited by Artkansas; 11-12-11 at 10:46 AM.
#10
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: somewhere in Central México
Posts: 87
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
#11
Humvee of bikes =Worksman
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 5,362
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 10 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 6 Times
in
6 Posts
The mess the world is in didn't happen all at once. Cleaning it up will also not happen all at once.
__________________
My preferred bicycle brand is.......WORKSMAN CYCLES
I dislike clipless pedals on any city bike since I feel they are unsafe.
Originally Posted by krazygluon
Steel: nearly a thousand years of metallurgical development
Aluminum: barely a hundred, which one would you rather have under your butt at 30mph?
My preferred bicycle brand is.......WORKSMAN CYCLES
I dislike clipless pedals on any city bike since I feel they are unsafe.
Originally Posted by krazygluon
Steel: nearly a thousand years of metallurgical development
Aluminum: barely a hundred, which one would you rather have under your butt at 30mph?
#12
Tractorlegs
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: El Paso, TX
Posts: 3,185
Bikes: Schwinn Meridian Single-Speed Tricycle
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 119 Post(s)
Liked 60 Times
in
42 Posts
One of the comments (actually the first one on the long list) was:
This is absolutely true in my life. The further I get away from my car, the more free I feel. The less I drive, the more I realize it was an addiction rather than a necessity.
If having a car in 1950 was freedom, not having a car in 2011 is freedom.
__________________
********************************
Trikeman
Trikeman
#13
Banned.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,325
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
The beauty of the Internet is that small groups of like minded eccentrics find each other and provide mutual ratification of their beliefs.
#14
cycleobsidian
Thread Starter
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Southwestern Ontario
Posts: 441
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
#15
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
Populations have increased in that same 11 year period, so a 1.7 percent drop is a good trend.
More importantly to me are the readers comments. Highly favourable to car-lite/car-free living. Not bad for a newspaper with a large national circulation, not just Toronto-centric.
More importantly to me are the readers comments. Highly favourable to car-lite/car-free living. Not bad for a newspaper with a large national circulation, not just Toronto-centric.
#16
Sophomoric Member
#17
Sophomoric Member
I think you meant to say "drop in total miles driven nationwide." Mileage rates--both total and per capita--have risen every year for more than 100 years. Therefore, any drop whatsoever is a "real" drop and is socially significant. For the record, total miles driven in the US have dropped in recent years.
__________________
"Think Outside the Cage"
#18
Sophomoric Member
Demographics also have an important impact. The two largest current cohorts are aging baby boomers and their young-adult children, known as Generation Y. The youngest of these Millennials are currently in their mid-teens, just the age when they should be getting their driver's licences.
But U.S. transportation data show that many of them are putting off that long-cherished rite of passage well into their 20s.
In fact, they're more likely than any previous generation in the automotive age never to learn to drive at all. It's a choice that may feed into their elders' suspicion that this is a group that stubbornly holds on to its adolescence rather than accommodate itself to adulthood, but is also just a mark of when they came of age. To them, cars are “an older-generation technology,” says Tara Mahoney, 28, of Burnaby, B.C.
But U.S. transportation data show that many of them are putting off that long-cherished rite of passage well into their 20s.
In fact, they're more likely than any previous generation in the automotive age never to learn to drive at all. It's a choice that may feed into their elders' suspicion that this is a group that stubbornly holds on to its adolescence rather than accommodate itself to adulthood, but is also just a mark of when they came of age. To them, cars are “an older-generation technology,” says Tara Mahoney, 28, of Burnaby, B.C.
__________________
"Think Outside the Cage"
#19
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
Any drop is a "real" drop.
I think you meant to say "drop in total miles driven nationwide." Mileage rates--both total and per capita--have risen every year for more than 100 years. Therefore, any drop whatsoever is a "real" drop and is socially significant. For the record, total miles driven in the US have dropped in recent years.
I think you meant to say "drop in total miles driven nationwide." Mileage rates--both total and per capita--have risen every year for more than 100 years. Therefore, any drop whatsoever is a "real" drop and is socially significant. For the record, total miles driven in the US have dropped in recent years.
You might care to re-read the article.
#20
Sophomoric Member
Regardless, a per capita drop is still a "real" drop. It's just one way of measuring it that in some ways is more meaningful, since it points out trends and personal habits. In addition, real miles driven have dropped in the US, as I said. The article says that US miles are at the same level as in 1998. Since population has increased quite a bit in 13 years, this also implies a per capita drop in the US.
Originally Posted by Globe & Mail
The most detailed picture of the trend comes from the United States, where the distance driven by Americans per capita each year flatlined at the turn of the century and has been dropping for six years. By last spring, Americans were driving the same distance as they had in 1998.
The data are similar in Europe, Australia and Japan. And, although Canada doesn't keep national statistics on individual driving habits, Australian researcher Jeff Kenworthy has found that driving in the nation's five largest cities, combined, declined by 1.7 per cent per capita from 1995 to 2006.
The data are similar in Europe, Australia and Japan. And, although Canada doesn't keep national statistics on individual driving habits, Australian researcher Jeff Kenworthy has found that driving in the nation's five largest cities, combined, declined by 1.7 per cent per capita from 1995 to 2006.
__________________
"Think Outside the Cage"
Last edited by Roody; 11-12-11 at 04:17 PM.
#21
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
It was an unclear sentence, further confused by mention of an Australian researcher or some such.
Regardless, a per capita drop is still a "real" drop. It's just one way of measuring it that in some ways is more meaningful, since it points out trends and personal habits. In addition, real miles driven have dropped in the US, as I said. The article says that US miles are at the same level as in 1998. Since population has increased quite a bit in 13 years, this also implies a per capita drop in the US.
Regardless, a per capita drop is still a "real" drop. It's just one way of measuring it that in some ways is more meaningful, since it points out trends and personal habits. In addition, real miles driven have dropped in the US, as I said. The article says that US miles are at the same level as in 1998. Since population has increased quite a bit in 13 years, this also implies a per capita drop in the US.
If the population of a town is 10 and they drive a total of 1,000 miles, then the per capita milage is 100. Two years later the per capita milage has fallen 10% to 90 but on counting the inhabitants we find the population has risen 10% to 11. Under this scenario the total milage must have been 990 which represents a drop of only 1%. If the population had doubled, a 10% drop in per capita milage would mean they had driven a total milage of 1,800 or an 80% increase.
Last edited by Caretaker; 11-12-11 at 04:36 PM. Reason: correction
#22
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
"Are We Reaching Peak Car?"
Whatever about 'we', 'they' certainly aren't.
They being India (population 1.15 billion) and China (population 1.3 billion).
I wouldn't pop the champagne quite yet.
Whatever about 'we', 'they' certainly aren't.
They being India (population 1.15 billion) and China (population 1.3 billion).
I wouldn't pop the champagne quite yet.
#23
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 7,143
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 261 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 11 Times
in
10 Posts
I still believe the recession is the cause of this 1.7% drop in auto usage. People are just too broke to drive and millions are out of work. The article states that governments will have to change their revenue expectations regarding toll and parking fees but I've not seen that all all. Highway tolls and parking fees are INCREASING even during the recession adding more to the motorist woes.
What is the X factor in all of this is public transit. If cities and states across the nation started increasing their funding for bus and rail transport, more people will become carfree since the motor car is rapidily becoming unaffordable. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening and in fact, it's just the opposite.
What is the X factor in all of this is public transit. If cities and states across the nation started increasing their funding for bus and rail transport, more people will become carfree since the motor car is rapidily becoming unaffordable. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening and in fact, it's just the opposite.
#24
Heretic
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Dublin, Ireland
Posts: 2,246
Bikes: Specialized Sirrus, Giant OCR3, Giant CRS3
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2827 Post(s)
Liked 561 Times
in
429 Posts
Of course, if the kids read this so-called carfree forum, they will be advised to get their licenses as soon as they turn 16. In a recent thread, I was the only one who endorsed the idea of a young person deferring his DL. I feel vindicated reading here that many young people are making that choice already.
Last edited by Caretaker; 11-12-11 at 06:00 PM. Reason: typo error
#25
In the right lane
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Des Moines
Posts: 9,565
Bikes: 1974 Huffy 3 speed
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 44 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 7 Times
in
6 Posts
There are a couple of factors that might drive some of the decrease in driving.
The decrease is happening in 5 Canadian cities. In Canada the price of gas is near $5 a gallon. Sometimes more. These cities tend to be more densely populate than US cities, so traffic congestion is nasty. Canadians own far fewer cars per capita than Americans (Canada = 620 US=868 per 1000 people). Canadians pay higher taxes than Americans and would seem to have less disposable income to throw for gasoline.
Nonetheless, there is a lot of evidence than something similar is happening in the US. I can give only personal evidence. I have 3 children, 2 of whom have DLs and cars. One lives in the Toronto area and (as much as possible) beats traffic by taking the train to work. The other is moving to downtown Des Moines so he can walk to work.
To the point ArtKansas made, there is also a lot of evidence that the trend is starting. City governments across North American understand the urgent need to reduce congestion in their centers. There is a strong will in most cities (at least in the north half of the US...) to support transportation alternatives.
I say the writing is on the wall... You can argue thatn 1.7% is a significant figure or not. I don't think the statistic matters.
It's happening.
The decrease is happening in 5 Canadian cities. In Canada the price of gas is near $5 a gallon. Sometimes more. These cities tend to be more densely populate than US cities, so traffic congestion is nasty. Canadians own far fewer cars per capita than Americans (Canada = 620 US=868 per 1000 people). Canadians pay higher taxes than Americans and would seem to have less disposable income to throw for gasoline.
Nonetheless, there is a lot of evidence than something similar is happening in the US. I can give only personal evidence. I have 3 children, 2 of whom have DLs and cars. One lives in the Toronto area and (as much as possible) beats traffic by taking the train to work. The other is moving to downtown Des Moines so he can walk to work.
To the point ArtKansas made, there is also a lot of evidence that the trend is starting. City governments across North American understand the urgent need to reduce congestion in their centers. There is a strong will in most cities (at least in the north half of the US...) to support transportation alternatives.
I say the writing is on the wall... You can argue thatn 1.7% is a significant figure or not. I don't think the statistic matters.
It's happening.