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Are we reaching peak car?

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Are we reaching peak car?

Old 11-12-11, 06:38 AM
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Are we reaching peak car?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...articlecontent

This article appeared in the Globe and Mail in October.

The article is good but the comments afterward are even better. Almost all of them have a similar philosophy to those of us that like to frequent LCF.

We are not alone.
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Old 11-12-11, 07:39 AM
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Interesting article.

And that, Mr. Litman says, should be enough in itself to push economists, planners and politicians to take a good hard look at the future. “A lot of current policies are misguided,” he says. “They might have made sense 40 or 50 years ago, but now it makes absolutely no sense to continue the policy distortions that encourage auto use.”
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Old 11-12-11, 08:40 AM
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Somehow, I just don't get all excited about a 1.7 percent drop in car usage over a 11 year period.
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Old 11-12-11, 09:29 AM
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Originally Posted by cycleobsidian
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...articlecontent

This article appeared in the Globe and Mail in October.

The article is good but the comments afterward are even better. Almost all of them have a similar philosophy to those of us that like to frequent LCF.

We are not alone.
I liked the comment about how "Cars are the new tobacco." It does appear that people's frustration with the car is growing and that they are questioning the role of the car in their lives.

As Dynodonn says, 1.7 percent drop is not much. But I find that there is any drop at all is tremendously significant.

Here is a talk that gives one hope. People tend to do what they see being done. So the more people see that living car free is possible, the more they will join in. It's quite an amazing talk. Do Lectures- Understanding the super social ape

"We are ‘a super-social ape’. We exist to converse, to chat, to gossip. Whole social movements can be explained by utilising this core theory." Mark Earls
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Originally Posted by Bjforrestal
I don't care if you are on a unicycle, as long as you're not using a motor to get places you get props from me. We're here to support each other. Share ideas, and motivate one another to actually keep doing it.
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Old 11-12-11, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Artkansas
.....1.7 percent drop is not much. But I find that there is any drop at all is tremendously significant.
To me, 1 to 2 less cars out of 100 is really not overall noticeable during a rush hour commute.
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Old 11-12-11, 10:12 AM
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I spent (wasted) too much money on cars over the years. Now I just buy the basic model I need to get the job done. My love affair is long gone.
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Old 11-12-11, 10:36 AM
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Originally Posted by dynodonn
Somehow, I just don't get all excited about a 1.7 percent drop in car usage over a 11 year period.
Populations have increased in that same 11 year period, so a 1.7 percent drop is a good trend.

More importantly to me are the readers comments. Highly favourable to car-lite/car-free living. Not bad for a newspaper with a large national circulation, not just Toronto-centric.
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Old 11-12-11, 10:37 AM
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Originally Posted by dynodonn
To me, 1 to 2 less cars out of 100 is really not overall noticeable during a rush hour commute.
You have to look at trends and on a longer scale. The big changes are not on the highway. They are in peoples minds. This is 1.7% less rather than 1.7% more so its really a 3.4% shift. It's also a reversal of direction. But most importantly, it says that people are starting to register their discontent. They are starting to look around for answers and talking to other people.

I met a woman yesterday, she did not know that I was car-free and out of the blue she made an observation about public transit in Little Rock and asked me whether I thought it was possible to live without a car in Little Rock. She was pleasantly surprised to discover that I had been car-free in Little Rock for almost 7 years.

As Mark Earls points out in his talk, people live to be social. We take our cues from each other. If you watch the video, you will see one man dancing at a concert. For the longest while it is just him. But then another man joins him. Then after a while, a 3rd and 4th people join. Then more, and then more and more. It's not a straight line progression. In terms of the video, I'd say we are at the point where the second man starts dancing. It doesn't look significant, but it is. "One Robin does not make a Spring" as the saying goes, but it's generally a good indicator.
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Originally Posted by Bjforrestal
I don't care if you are on a unicycle, as long as you're not using a motor to get places you get props from me. We're here to support each other. Share ideas, and motivate one another to actually keep doing it.

Last edited by Artkansas; 11-12-11 at 10:46 AM.
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Old 11-12-11, 11:36 AM
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Originally Posted by cycleobsidian
More importantly to me are the readers comments. Highly favourable to car-lite/car-free living.
+1

Ninety percent of those letters were written by highly intelligent and thoughtful people. I'm impressed.
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Old 11-12-11, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by dynodonn
Somehow, I just don't get all excited about a 1.7 percent drop in car usage over a 11 year period.
Actually It's good enough regarding America's population has increased a lot in those 11 years.

Last edited by Rapidoyfurioso; 11-12-11 at 11:55 AM.
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Old 11-12-11, 11:50 AM
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Old 11-12-11, 12:16 PM
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One of the comments (actually the first one on the long list) was:
If having a car in 1950 was freedom, not having a car in 2011 is freedom.
This is absolutely true in my life. The further I get away from my car, the more free I feel. The less I drive, the more I realize it was an addiction rather than a necessity.
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Old 11-12-11, 01:06 PM
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Originally Posted by cycleobsidian
The article is good but the comments afterward are even better. Almost all of them have a similar philosophy to those of us that like to frequent LCF.

We are not alone.
The beauty of the Internet is that small groups of like minded eccentrics find each other and provide mutual ratification of their beliefs.
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Old 11-12-11, 01:45 PM
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Originally Posted by myrridin
The beauty of the Internet is that small groups of like minded eccentrics find each other and provide mutual ratification of their beliefs.
I agree. Let's have a group hug, myrridin!
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Old 11-12-11, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by cycleobsidian
Populations have increased in that same 11 year period, so a 1.7 percent drop is a good trend.
More importantly to me are the readers comments. Highly favourable to car-lite/car-free living. Not bad for a newspaper with a large national circulation, not just Toronto-centric.
The article refers to a 1.7 % per capita drop so the population would have to rise by less than 1.7% over the same period to translate into a real drop in car usage.
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Old 11-12-11, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by dynodonn
Somehow, I just don't get all excited about a 1.7 percent drop in car usage over a 11 year period.
That's because you don't understand the ramifications.
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Old 11-12-11, 03:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Caretaker
The article refers to a 1.7 % per capita drop so the population would have to rise by less than 1.7% over the same period to translate into a real drop in car usage.
Any drop is a "real" drop.

I think you meant to say "drop in total miles driven nationwide." Mileage rates--both total and per capita--have risen every year for more than 100 years. Therefore, any drop whatsoever is a "real" drop and is socially significant. For the record, total miles driven in the US have dropped in recent years.
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Old 11-12-11, 03:52 PM
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Demographics also have an important impact. The two largest current cohorts are aging baby boomers and their young-adult children, known as Generation Y. The youngest of these Millennials are currently in their mid-teens, just the age when they should be getting their driver's licences.

But U.S. transportation data show that many of them are putting off that long-cherished rite of passage well into their 20s.

In fact, they're more likely than any previous generation in the automotive age never to learn to drive at all. It's a choice that may feed into their elders' suspicion that this is a group that stubbornly holds on to its adolescence rather than accommodate itself to adulthood, but is also just a mark of when they came of age. To them, cars are “an older-generation technology,” says Tara Mahoney, 28, of Burnaby, B.C.
Of course, if the kids read this so-called carfree forum, they will be advised to get their licenses as soon as they turn 16. In a recent thread, I was the only one who endorsed the idea of a young person deferring his DL. I feel vindicated reading here that many young people are making that choice already.
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Old 11-12-11, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
Any drop is a "real" drop.

I think you meant to say "drop in total miles driven nationwide." Mileage rates--both total and per capita--have risen every year for more than 100 years. Therefore, any drop whatsoever is a "real" drop and is socially significant. For the record, total miles driven in the US have dropped in recent years.
No. I read the article and it refers to "driving in the nation's five largest cities" which in the context of the article I take to refer to Canada.

You might care to re-read the article.
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Old 11-12-11, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Caretaker
No. I read the article and it refers to "driving in the nation's five largest cities" which in the context of the article I take to refer to Canada.

You might care to re-read the article.
It was an unclear sentence, further confused by mention of an Australian researcher or some such.

Regardless, a per capita drop is still a "real" drop. It's just one way of measuring it that in some ways is more meaningful, since it points out trends and personal habits. In addition, real miles driven have dropped in the US, as I said. The article says that US miles are at the same level as in 1998. Since population has increased quite a bit in 13 years, this also implies a per capita drop in the US.

Originally Posted by Globe & Mail
The most detailed picture of the trend comes from the United States, where the distance driven by Americans per capita each year flatlined at the turn of the century and has been dropping for six years. By last spring, Americans were driving the same distance as they had in 1998.

The data are similar in Europe, Australia and Japan. And, although Canada doesn't keep national statistics on individual driving habits, Australian researcher Jeff Kenworthy has found that driving in the nation's five largest cities, combined, declined by 1.7 per cent per capita from 1995 to 2006.
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Old 11-12-11, 04:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
It was an unclear sentence, further confused by mention of an Australian researcher or some such.

Regardless, a per capita drop is still a "real" drop. It's just one way of measuring it that in some ways is more meaningful, since it points out trends and personal habits. In addition, real miles driven have dropped in the US, as I said. The article says that US miles are at the same level as in 1998. Since population has increased quite a bit in 13 years, this also implies a per capita drop in the US.
Okay.

If the population of a town is 10 and they drive a total of 1,000 miles, then the per capita milage is 100. Two years later the per capita milage has fallen 10% to 90 but on counting the inhabitants we find the population has risen 10% to 11. Under this scenario the total milage must have been 990 which represents a drop of only 1%. If the population had doubled, a 10% drop in per capita milage would mean they had driven a total milage of 1,800 or an 80% increase.

Last edited by Caretaker; 11-12-11 at 04:36 PM. Reason: correction
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Old 11-12-11, 05:08 PM
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"Are We Reaching Peak Car?"

Whatever about 'we', 'they' certainly aren't.

They being India (population 1.15 billion) and China (population 1.3 billion).

I wouldn't pop the champagne quite yet.
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Old 11-12-11, 05:40 PM
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I still believe the recession is the cause of this 1.7% drop in auto usage. People are just too broke to drive and millions are out of work. The article states that governments will have to change their revenue expectations regarding toll and parking fees but I've not seen that all all. Highway tolls and parking fees are INCREASING even during the recession adding more to the motorist woes.

What is the X factor in all of this is public transit. If cities and states across the nation started increasing their funding for bus and rail transport, more people will become carfree since the motor car is rapidily becoming unaffordable. Unfortunately, I don't see this happening and in fact, it's just the opposite.
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Old 11-12-11, 05:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
Of course, if the kids read this so-called carfree forum, they will be advised to get their licenses as soon as they turn 16. In a recent thread, I was the only one who endorsed the idea of a young person deferring his DL. I feel vindicated reading here that many young people are making that choice already.
I think the record will show that both vladvm and dcrowell supported you and that I, while not directly advising any particular course of action, did challenge the majority line.

Last edited by Caretaker; 11-12-11 at 06:00 PM. Reason: typo error
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Old 11-12-11, 07:29 PM
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There are a couple of factors that might drive some of the decrease in driving.

The decrease is happening in 5 Canadian cities. In Canada the price of gas is near $5 a gallon. Sometimes more. These cities tend to be more densely populate than US cities, so traffic congestion is nasty. Canadians own far fewer cars per capita than Americans (Canada = 620 US=868 per 1000 people). Canadians pay higher taxes than Americans and would seem to have less disposable income to throw for gasoline.

Nonetheless, there is a lot of evidence than something similar is happening in the US. I can give only personal evidence. I have 3 children, 2 of whom have DLs and cars. One lives in the Toronto area and (as much as possible) beats traffic by taking the train to work. The other is moving to downtown Des Moines so he can walk to work.

To the point ArtKansas made, there is also a lot of evidence that the trend is starting. City governments across North American understand the urgent need to reduce congestion in their centers. There is a strong will in most cities (at least in the north half of the US...) to support transportation alternatives.

I say the writing is on the wall... You can argue thatn 1.7% is a significant figure or not. I don't think the statistic matters.

It's happening.
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