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Has "Peak OIl" peaked?

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Has "Peak OIl" peaked?

Old 08-25-15, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by mconlonx
The whole premise of Peak Oil is that it would get people out of cars and onto bikes, into mass transportation. Even if Peak Oil were occurring, or when it does, we've already seen the future: hybrid and full-electric cars. Peak Oil =/= the end of car culture.
You're forgetting about the intermediating mechanism that leads from 'peak oil' to transportation reforms, which is rising fuel prices. Up to now, oil prices have been falling due to a broad supply-side stimulus campaign designed to force down global oil prices by means of more domestic drilling, more energy source diversification, increasing renewables, etc. etc.

Domestic drilling threw in the towel when oil prices dropped to current levels. Presumably ethanol is still being added to gasoline, but I'm not sure at what point that becomes unprofitable. Todays headlines suggest Saudi oil is going to start raising prices due to weakening Chinese demand. The question is how high the price has to go before offline US drillers get back into the market. We may see a shift toward longer term conservation, which would mean rising fuel prices driving more investment in alternatives and renewables.

Every round of reform results in some lessons learned and future efforts will be informed by those. I doubt we'll have to cringe through another attempt to use corn ethanol, shale oil, etc. to lower gas prices with the knowledge that simple political choices can bring the price down again. The problem is that the broad public simply won't accept rising fuel prices so that puts political pressure on to push producers into selling for less, even when they don't want to. Military force may regain popularity as a means for controlling gas prices but the public may be also be wising up to the need to accept higher prices and mitigate these with conservation.
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Old 08-25-15, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
You're forgetting about the intermediating mechanism that leads from 'peak oil' to transportation reforms, which is rising fuel prices.
Not at all: my point is that when fuel prices rise, the main thought is not, "Wow, I better dust off that bike and look into public transport," it's "Hey, maybe I should consider a hybrid/plug-in electric car." Or a smaller car. Or a scooter.

As fuel prices rise, there will be some movement toward public transport and even bicycles, but car culture will linger a good while, especially outside of urban centers.
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Old 08-25-15, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by mconlonx
Not at all: my point is that when fuel prices rise, the main thought is not, "Wow, I better dust off that bike and look into public transport," it's "Hey, maybe I should consider a hybrid/plug-in electric car." Or a smaller car. Or a scooter.

As fuel prices rise, there will be some movement toward public transport and even bicycles, but car culture will linger a good while, especially outside of urban centers.
It's not just 'car culture.' It's the general culture of using some external source of power to get more than you can from your own internal power source. Part of it might be laziness. Another part envy. These are not new vices. Eventually, they all give way to self-reliance but it takes a long time. Most people won't increase reliance on their own power and efforts until they are deprived of all means of relying on others'. When economies crash, some people get deprived of all their money and are forced to stop relying on others, but most figure out a way around it. Some people catch on that there are ways of being a lot more independent, such as biking; while others are just oblivious and keep running around in circles like chickens with their heads cut off.
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Old 08-25-15, 05:26 PM
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Tandempower:
When have you seen a society catch on and return to cycling? Greece was faced with this exact problem and they voted "Against" austerity. When they were about to be cut off to save the country from bankruptcy the head of Greece agreed to cut backs and repayment do for his efforts he is being replaced by someone that is against austerity. And they haven't gone back to bikes. The fall of the USSR didn't get the people on bikes and now China has their very own stock market.
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Old 08-25-15, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
Presumably ethanol is still being added to gasoline, but I'm not sure at what point that becomes unprofitable.
Ethanol isn't added to increase profitability, it's added to create an outlet for all the excess corn the government subsidizes. It was ostensibly first used to reduce the need for fossil fuels, although the net gain in that regard is insignificant at best. It has remained a component of gas sold in the US primarily because the first Presidential primaries are held in Iowa where no one dares to speak against corn subsidies.
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Old 08-26-15, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Mobile 155
Tandempower:
When have you seen a society catch on and return to cycling? Greece was faced with this exact problem and they voted "Against" austerity. When they were about to be cut off to save the country from bankruptcy the head of Greece agreed to cut backs and repayment do for his efforts he is being replaced by someone that is against austerity. And they haven't gone back to bikes. The fall of the USSR didn't get the people on bikes and now China has their very own stock market.
I find it so amusing to always listen to talk about how people reject austerity in one way or another, as if economics is about giving people a choice about how much money they get to spend. You may not like austerity, but when your credit finally gets cut off and you can't get anyone to give you any money, austerity is mandatory if you don't want to go into illegal business dealings.

What you have where collective societies are concerned is the ability to get the majority to resist austerity measures, and then attempt to solicit bailout deals and/or credit that reduce the need for austerity. This is, of course, risky business because what do you do as a society when you have to default on collective debt? You could end up under pressure to change laws that provide basic protections against exploitation, etc. Then, businesses will come into an area and start exploiting people in any way that squeezes money out of them. It is not a nice prospect.


Originally Posted by jon c.
Ethanol isn't added to increase profitability, it's added to create an outlet for all the excess corn the government subsidizes. It was ostensibly first used to reduce the need for fossil fuels, although the net gain in that regard is insignificant at best. It has remained a component of gas sold in the US primarily because the first Presidential primaries are held in Iowa where no one dares to speak against corn subsidies.
Subsidies are probably what makes it profitable. It's horrible to think we subsidize ethanol to keep gasoline artificially affordable and yet there is so much resistance to transportation reform. Why do people keep believing that automotivism is sustainable?
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Old 08-26-15, 09:02 AM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
Why do people keep believing that automotivism is sustainable?
Because there's enough will to make it so. Whether it'll be electricity, or hydrogen or methane powering them, most people like their cars and will go to great lengths to keep them. They're just too convenient.
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Old 08-26-15, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by delcrossv
Because there's enough will to make it so. Whether it'll be electricity, or hydrogen or methane powering them, most people like their cars and will go to great lengths to keep them. They're just too convenient.
Well, there will be more wars to send their children off to soon enough that will buy them some more cheap gas, for a while anyway. "Great lengths," indeed.
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Old 08-26-15, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by Wait For Me
The only people who really know how much oil is still available are not posting in this thread. Anything posted here is an opinion at best.
Yep. Pure, adulterated, useless speculation.
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Old 08-26-15, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by jfowler85
Yep. Pure, adulterated, useless speculation.
If you don't like this thread, there are some other threads that you may find more interesting. Nobody is requiring you to follow this one.
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Old 08-26-15, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Roody
If you don't like this thread, there are some other threads that you may find more interesting. Nobody is requiring you to follow this one.
I'm not following it, and I never said I don't like it. I like the comment I responded to. I do believe I can reply to whatever the hell I feel like
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Old 08-26-15, 10:28 AM
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My speculation is, "peak oil has come and gone a few years ago". Oil is only "cheap" if you don't count the people that are dying for it...
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Old 08-26-15, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
Well, there will be more wars to send their children off to soon enough that will buy them some more cheap gas, for a while anyway. "Great lengths," indeed.
Yep.
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Old 08-26-15, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
I find it so amusing to always listen to talk about how people reject austerity in one way or another, as if economics is about giving people a choice about how much money they get to spend. You may not like austerity, but when your credit finally gets cut off and you can't get anyone to give you any money, austerity is mandatory if you don't want to go into illegal business dealings.
People scrape by. Cuba is a great example of that. They could certainly have abandoned cars, yet instead, there is a healthy car culture there, one where they keep cars alive that are 50-60+ years old. What meager cash they have, some choose to spend on their cars -- basically anyone who has a chance will spend it on cars. Black and grey market certainly become valid enterprises during times of true austerity.

Many Chinese live an austere life, yet it is one of the fastest growing markets for cars.

The "If only people would recognize..." and "When oil/society collapses..." arguments fall as flat regarding mass transformation to bicycle culture as do the arguments I hear from the SCA crowd for their arms skills...
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Old 08-26-15, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by mconlonx
People scrape by. Cuba is a great example of that. They could certainly have abandoned cars, yet instead, there is a healthy car culture there, one where they keep cars alive that are 50-60+ years old. What meager cash they have, some choose to spend on their cars -- basically anyone who has a chance will spend it on cars. Black and grey market certainly become valid enterprises during times of true austerity.

Many Chinese live an austere life, yet it is one of the fastest growing markets for cars.

The "If only people would recognize..." and "When oil/society collapses..." arguments fall as flat regarding mass transformation to bicycle culture as do the arguments I hear from the SCA crowd for their arms skills...
An austere economy fulfills its needs and the people have free time to devote to hobbies. If they can somehow get parts to fix up old cars, why wouldn't they do so unless they have some other hobby they want to reserve that money for? It's these economies where cars and driving are considered a necessity where everyone is pressing each other for more money to spend on fuel, insurance, tires, maintenance, etc. If people in austere economies start driving cars as compulsively and extensively as people in non-austere economies do, many who have the money for cars as a hobby now won't be able to afford the same standard of living because they are priced into expensive rentals, face higher costs of living, etc.

Austerity is a benefit. The more people conserve, the more affordable everything becomes. Austerity isn't hard to achieve by totalitarian mandate. The challenge is popularizing it within free democratic societies. It's just like with driving. The more people stay off the roads, the better traffic flows for those who do drive. The challenge is getting those people off the roads without forcing them off by means of high fuel prices, economic recession, etc. Wouldn't it be great to have a prosperous economy where people are free to drive precisely because most don't most of the time? That would be a triumph of democracy and freedom over economic compulsion.
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Old 08-26-15, 07:04 PM
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The thing about austerity is that it is always reserved for the proletariat.
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Old 08-27-15, 07:17 AM
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Originally Posted by jon c.
The thing about austerity is that it is always reserved for the proletariat.
I think voluntary austerity is pretty much what carfree living in an autocentric society is all about.
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Old 08-27-15, 02:27 PM
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Originally Posted by tandempower
Austerity isn't hard to achieve by totalitarian mandate. The challenge is popularizing it within free democratic societies. It's just like with driving. The more people stay off the roads, the better traffic flows for those who do drive. The challenge is getting those people off the roads without forcing them off by means of high fuel prices, economic recession, etc. Wouldn't it be great to have a prosperous economy where people are free to drive precisely because most don't most of the time? That would be a triumph of democracy and freedom over economic compulsion.
...and human nature over the course of recorded history indicates that this is just not how humans work. Economics of driving and human emotion: the better traffic flows, the more people want to drive. Democracy and freedom in combination with economic compulsion has led to the level of car culture we now enjoy. When I point out the nearest thing to austerity in the USA -- higher fuel prices -- which might drive people to seek alt transport, the answer by the masses is not bicycles and public transport, it's a car-centered solution: electrics and hybrids. How do you get around that compulsion?
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Old 08-28-15, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by mconlonx
...and human nature over the course of recorded history indicates that this is just not how humans work. Economics of driving and human emotion: the better traffic flows, the more people want to drive. Democracy and freedom in combination with economic compulsion has led to the level of car culture we now enjoy. When I point out the nearest thing to austerity in the USA -- higher fuel prices -- which might drive people to seek alt transport, the answer by the masses is not bicycles and public transport, it's a car-centered solution: electrics and hybrids. How do you get around that compulsion?
When the tobacco companies lost their big lawsuit in the 1990s, government and economy got a boon for a while by essentially taxing all the money that had been fed into the tobacco companies as a result of consumer addiction/compulsion. Arguably, this is the same thing that happened with the big BP spill settlements that occurred after years of expensive gasoline raised money for the BP coffers to be had as a settlement.

So what does the government/economy do about compulsion? Tolerate it and allow money to build up and then find a way to get the money and pump it back out into the economy.

Strangely, smoking seemed to be cut back for a long time after those tobacco settlements. It seems to be coming back into vogue now, but maybe I just notice it more lately, idk. I also don't know if gasoline waxes and wains in popularity. Motor-traffic seemed to be getting better for a while but now that gas prices have been going down, driving seems to be picking up again.

Current economic forecasts are noting a shift in supply-orientation with the Chinese recession. As long as China was growing, oil prices were being held low with the hope of stimulating growing demand. Now that global demand is forecasted to wain, we might see gas prices going up to take advantage of a more elite consumer base. Likewise, reports are emphasizing the US economy's strong momentum despite the Chinese crash, which implies investors will be pumping more money into that (US) economy, which will probably create an incentive to raise gas prices in the US.

Oil has already gained $10/barrel, supposedly.

Rising gas prices will indeed stimulate automotive demand shifts toward EVs and hybrids. Tesla was just lauded by consumer reports, which will supposedly promote its EVs. If EV and hybrid production markets become more competitive, falling prices on those vehicles could stimulate an even bigger increase in driving than the declining gas prices have, because electricity is cheaper than gas at the levels of efficiency enjoyed by EV drivers.

If motor-traffic is growing with EV growth, congestion will also increase and, at that point, governments will be faced with the prospect of having to further expand automotive infrastructure and/or expand non-motorized infrastructure and transit as an alternative. If there isn't a shift away from motorized transportation, 21st century population levels will make congestion and sprawl much worse than they were at 20th century levels as they peaked in the 1980s and 1990s.

That means that we could see the compulsion to drive resulting in worse consequences than were seen in the 20th century. If we don't stay the new course, things are going to get worse than they've ever been. That is a given of population growth. Even if more intense wars, killing, and disasters cause greater population reductions than in the 20th century, the aftermath will be even greater population growth than before. This is simply because technology and knowledge that allow faster population growth aren't suppressable, unless you believe in a future like Ayn Rand's novel Anthem, where even basic technologies like electric lighting are dogmatically suppressed in an effort to keep human life primitive. Even if that was good, I doubt it would ever be possible at levels that would prevent population from returning to pre-disaster levels and increasing beyond them.

We simply have no choice but to adapt human culture to higher levels of global population, including extraterrestrial migration, BUT the question is how many population 'dips' we will have to go through in the process of getting people to accept it without murderously resisting.

Last edited by tandempower; 08-28-15 at 10:27 AM.
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