Roody

A professor predicts that the era of the private automobile is nearly over, and wonders what will take its place. What are your thoughts? When (if ever) will the car be gone? What will replace it?
https://www.theatlanticcities.com/tec...vate-car/4930/

Artkansas 

My guess, the private auto is in no danger. The driver however is. I think that surprisingly quickly, computers will take over driving for many situations and do it better than people. The current fracking fad, I think will be with us for a while.

Ekdog

From what I've been reading, wells that use the fracking technology can't maintain a high production rate for very long at all:

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/0...le-is-Bursting

wolfchild

I just hope that bicycles never become computerized with a bunch of electronic crap. I like them plain and simple.

wolfchild

I don't think the era of private auto is coming to an end. What will happen is, it will become more and more expensive to own and drive a vehicle and eventually only wealthy people will be able to afford it, but I don't see it coming to an end... Electric, hybrid and hydrogen technology is still in it's infancy and eventually most autos will be powered by one of these.

Smallwheels

Fully loaded pickup trucks are costing nearly $60,000 these days!
Some SUVs from Jeep cost $58,000 for the top of the line.

wahoonc

I would love to see computer controlled vehicles for longer distance travel, with parking away from the individual houses. Sort of a hybrid mass transit system. I also believe that unless something changes soon we will be seeing only the more wealthy people driving.

Aaron

cycleobsidian

When only wealthy people can afford the car, I hope they at least something better in place for those who can't afford to drive... such as better public transit and better, safer bike lanes.

wolfchild

I hope so too... There is a plan for my city (mississauga) to make it more "urban and dense".. LRT along the most busy road in the city is also in the plans, city is trying to encourage people to use their cars less. I believe that fear is the No.1 problem that's preventing a lot of people from commuting on bikes in this city.

wolfchild

It's not just trucks/suv's that are crazy expensive .What about the price of those tiny little hybrids and electric cars ?? .. I can't imagine how much a hydrogen powered vehicle with zero emmissions would cost, definitely out of reach for the average middle class people.

Roody

I think all of you who predict only the wealthy will drive are dead wrong. Historically, the wealthy are the FIRST ones to adapt new technology, not the last to hold on to the old.

For example, in the first 20 or so years of the Auto Age, only rich people owned cars. Not only were the machines themselves expensive to purchase, but you had to hire and train a chauffeur, since early cars broke down frequently and there were no repair shops. Poor people continued riding bikes and wagons as the wealthy switched to cars.

contango 

What will follow the car? I've thought for some time now how utterly inefficient it is to use a 1000kg vehicle to carry a 100kg person around. It means that roughly 90% of the energy used does nothing more than shift the box around, and what we need is a means of using much smaller and lighter vehicles.

Given urban congestion it's also rather silly to see a vehicle wide enough to take two people but with only one person in it. If we could create a half-width vehicle we could fit twice as many of them on the road, and since most of them only have one person in them it wouldn't inconvenience anybody.

I'd expect to see something like the private auto vehicle remaining but used more rarely, while more and more personal transportation was done with what we'd probably call a quadricycle today - essentially a lightweight frame with weather proofing appropriate for the area and the time of year, an engine that would move it around at a sensible speed but because the body could be so much lighter the fuel economy would be much higher than today. I remember seeing a web site some time back about two-stroke engines that were mounted on a pannier rack and drove the rear wheel of a bicycle directly, had a fuel tank containing maybe a couple of pints and offering fuel economy in excess of 200mpg. I rather like the idea of travelling the 600 miles to visit friends and it only costing $12 in gas.

no motor?

Like in the movie Brazil?

gerv 

I'm a firm believer in omens. To me, these facts represent a serious omen that we are in Peak Car. When you are conjuring oil out of rocks, as we currently are in Western Canada, oil is now in the realm of alchemy. When you price the automobile above what an average wage earner can realistically pay... what future does your product have?

wolfchild

What I've noticed is that fullsize pickup trucks, jeeps and other suv's are selling like crazy. Our roads are full of them.

Smallwheels

Skinny electric car: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLiYzSOMFgE

I think the future of cars will be in autonomous operation. I would love to get into a van, program it to go to my destination and then swivel the seat around and watch TV or use my computer as it takes me where I want to go. Having the ability for all of the passengers to face one another and converse while the vehicle takes us to our destination would be very luxurious. It could even haul people while they sleep.

Google already has such technology in the works.

I've had my fill of driving over the speed limit and trashing cars on the road. Combining travel with relaxation in an autonomous vehicle really appeals to me. With all cars controlled by computers they could talk to one another. This could eliminate the need for traffic lights in some places. Automotive trains will make travel more energy efficient as vehicles bunch together very closely due to electronic coupling of the different machines. That will make them more aerodynamic thus saving fuel.

mihlbach

They already have...

Artkansas 

And even bicycles were the purview of the rich when they were first available. Bicycles cost more in the 1880's than the most expensive CF models do now, adjusted for inflation; about 6 months wages for an average worker. By the time that automobiles came along in the 1890s, the middle class was enjoying the benefits of mass produced safety bicycles, which cost about 20% of the price of an ordinary at its peak.

Roody

Where will autonomous cars leave bicycles?

the other downside of them is that people like to have a feeling of control when they are moving. I believe that most people prefer to drive than to be a passenger, for example.

Also, how does autonomy solve the basic problems of cars? As you say, they reduce the problems, but they still require fuel, space on the road and for parking, and they still pollute. Less than current cars, but I think only a little less.

in a way, I would even disqualify them from this thread. The goal here is to think up a replacement for private cars. These autonomous cars are still exactly private automobiles, with only a refined guidance system.

wahoonc

I think only the wealthy will be able to AFFORD to drive cars, and I am sure many will to avoid the proletariat.

Haven't seen it.

Not on MY bikes, I am a bit of a Luddite I still ride a fair number of bikes with 100 year old technology... Sturmey-Archer 3 speeds, if it ain't broke I ain't fixing it!

Aaron

Ferrous Bueller

You should see it.

Roody

We need to bust loose in our thinking. Maybe we won't use vehicles at all. I have always pictured a treadway system--like a big conveyor belt for pedestrians. People would just step on the treadway and it would whisk them to their destination. If it went 20 mph without traffic stops, it would be faster than cars or even bikes. (In cities)

Artkansas 

Well, imagine this. Yellow cab owns a fleet of self driving cars. Every morning, one shows up at your door, you get in and it drives you to work. In the evening, it drives you home. It can be programmed for any errands you need on the way home. In the interim, it does normal taxi duty. It's even possible that the taxi is sent on errands such as picking up drycleaning, groceries etc during the day. These could be fitted in between taxi passenger runs. On express routes, self-driving cars can drive at higher speeds and higher density than human drivers, so less fuel is consumed and commute times are shortened. Because you have a month to month contract on this transportation, and there is no human driver, it may be cheaper and certainly will be easier than driving yourself, and leave you to facebook, ******, invest, conference, watch porn or whatever you fancy on your trip to and from work. And it might have a bike rack on it.

Kids might have their own contract, to be transported to and from school and to and from their activities.

Mobile 155

How far in the future?

https://auto.howstuffworks.com/under-...ies.htm#page=5

who is working on the Future?

https://gm-volt.com/2010/04/30/what-i...he-automobile/

Could we simply use another kind of fuel?

https://journeytoforever.org/biofuel.html

I don't know but I doubt the car will be replaced by human powered vehicles for the majority of the population. Maybe some kind of transportation pods or improved form of mass transit using smaller more frequent vehicles.

prathmann

I'd expect privately owned autonomous cars to be prevalent only for a short interim period.

Once cars can drive autonomously there's no longer a need to have one or two sitting in your driveway since you'd be able to request one to come pick you up on a moment's notice from your smartphone or whatever electronic device is in vogue at the time. Then you'd request whatever type of vehicle suits your needs for that particular trip - no need to have a van with only a single occupant on the ride to work, but one would still be available when taking a whole group to a game (and computerized systems could instantly determine when multiple people could efficiently share a ride). There would be no need for much parking space in crowded cities and suburbs since the autonomous cars would be able to drop you off and immediately continue on their way to pick up their next customer. When not needed they could park in some vacant field - preferably equipped with charging stations so the need for fossil fuel could be minimized. No longer any need for on-street parking, individual garages and driveways, etc.