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Old 12-04-13, 04:13 PM   #1
Roody
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Billionaires toying around with transportation

There was an interesting short article in Politico about big money tech innovators trying to make fundamental changes in private and commercial transportation. You know--Bezos, Musk, Brin, Branson with, respectively, flying delivery drones, high speed mag-rail, driverless cars, and commercial space flight. The author also rates the chances for success of each concept.

Which of these big ideas do you think are winners and losers? How might these schemes, if put in place, affect you personally, or society in general?

Link to article:
http://politi.co/1cXLeyk
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Old 12-04-13, 05:19 PM   #2
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well I like all of the ideas and I think the Drone delivery has a good chance. Makes even more sense because it looks like the Post office may be on its legs, at least from all of the talk about doing away with it. Driver less cars seem to be on their way so yes I like it. With the last court ruling it looks like there is as much chance for a hyperloop as a HSR in California so I like the idea even if I don't think we will see it. That is also why I think the Drones and driver less cars have the best chance because they have to deal with fewer agencies than something like a HSR or Hyperloop. Space travel? At this point what would be the point?
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Old 12-04-13, 06:42 PM   #3
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Well, I've always liked private space travel. There is so much energy out there, and so many resources and potential from the varying amounts of gravity that it will be amazing. Besides, one thing consistent with humanity since before prehistory is that we like to see what is over the horizon. Its in our nature to go.

I'd like to see the hyperloop. I've warmed over to driverless cars. At the least they will be more predictable and easier to dodge. I'm still highly skeptical about drone delivery. I can see that creating a real nightmare in the sky. Think about it, each package going separately? How do you monitor such traffic and keep them from hitting each other. Plus the noise. And does this take more or less energy than the current system.

But the really ridiculous idea I've heard lately is McDonalds putting 3D printers in every location.
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Old 12-04-13, 07:45 PM   #4
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I suspect that the drones will be controlled similarly to the driverless cars.

Really there's a lot of overlap in the projects, which makes them that much more likely to succeed.

I see the driverless Google cars here all the time, admittedly parked and never in motion, but usually a few times a week. I still smile and wave.
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Old 12-05-13, 07:55 AM   #5
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Can't wait to see the first lawsuit over the drone delivering a package to one place and having a motor, servo, or controller go out so it comes down in the neighbor's yard where their 5 year old granddaughter is playing and it slices a few fingers off.

Autonomous flying machines zooming around the skies is not a smart idea.

Don't look if you're squeamish, they do serious damage. This one is minor. On second thought, google the results instead of a direct link to see....

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Old 12-05-13, 05:01 PM   #6
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Every time we build a machine that obviates a paying job for a human, we take one step closer to a total economic breakdown. Seriously, will we trade delivery jobs for drones? Really?

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Old 12-05-13, 05:04 PM   #7
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Can't wait to see the first lawsuit over the drone delivering a package to one place and having a motor, servo, or controller go out so it comes down in the neighbor's yard where their 5 year old granddaughter is playing and it slices a few fingers off.

Autonomous flying machines zooming around the skies is not a smart idea.

Don't look if you're squeamish, they do serious damage. This one is minor. On second thought, google the results instead of a direct link to see....
If they can make a 4000 car drive around and not injure anybody, I'm pretty sure they can do the same with a drone. Google pictures of car accidents to see the full effects of what a delivery truck can do. Super scary!
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Old 12-05-13, 05:20 PM   #8
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Which of these big ideas do you think are winners and losers? How might these schemes, if put in place, affect you personally, or society in general?
Some of these ideas would probably create a lot of new jobs. Such as drone manufacturing and other high-tech jobs. It might also reduce the amount of delivery vehicles on the roads. Less traffic, no need to make frequent trips to the store, just order it online and the drone would deliver it right to your door.
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Old 12-05-13, 11:59 PM   #9
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If they can make a 4000 car drive around and not injure anybody, I'm pretty sure they can do the same with a drone. Google pictures of car accidents to see the full effects of what a delivery truck can do. Super scary!
If a driverless car stalls or breaks down, it's supposed to pull over to the side of the road and stay there. At least it doesn't fall out of the sky on somebody's head.
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Old 12-06-13, 12:04 AM   #10
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Some of these ideas would probably create a lot of new jobs. Such as drone manufacturing and other high-tech jobs. It might also reduce the amount of delivery vehicles on the roads. Less traffic, no need to make frequent trips to the store, just order it online and the drone would deliver it right to your door.
Obviously the drones are just another way for Amazon to continue its mission of destroying jobs and putting more and more people out of work. Amazon is so destructive and inhumane that it makes me admire Walmart. America has to make crap cheaper because we can't afford to pay full price anymore.
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Old 12-06-13, 02:15 AM   #11
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Obviously the drones are just another way for Amazon to continue its mission of destroying jobs and putting more and more people out of work. Amazon is so destructive and inhumane that it makes me admire Walmart. America has to make crap cheaper because we can't afford to pay full price anymore.
Is it any less destructive if a 10,000 pound truck getting 6 to 8 MPG delivers your T-Shirts from Lands end to you and your neighbors? As far as paying full price, when in Africa I was told if I ever offered full price for anything a person wanted to sell me they would lose respect for me while taking my money. Or would it be better if a battery powered drone dropped the same T-shirts on my back porch without spewing forth the carbon of those delivery trucks? I don't know if it will ever happen but I hardly ever buy books anymore because I can download them to my Kendle. I can carry more than 2000 books with me anywhere I go. And in reality I can access most of those books on my Phone while sitting in the doctor's office. Do I regret the fact that the Kendle book cost less than the hard cover? Nope.
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Old 12-06-13, 03:22 AM   #12
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Is it any less destructive if a 10,000 pound truck getting 6 to 8 MPG delivers your T-Shirts from Lands end to you and your neighbors? As far as paying full price, when in Africa I was told if I ever offered full price for anything a person wanted to sell me they would lose respect for me while taking my money. Or would it be better if a battery powered drone dropped the same T-shirts on my back porch without spewing forth the carbon of those delivery trucks? I don't know if it will ever happen but I hardly ever buy books anymore because I can download them to my Kendle. I can carry more than 2000 books with me anywhere I go. And in reality I can access most of those books on my Phone while sitting in the doctor's office. Do I regret the fact that the Kendle book cost less than the hard cover? Nope.
I don't know if a million drones taking the place of a thousand delivery vans will be a net gain or loss for the environment. I doubt if you (or anybody) knows the answer to that question, or even has a good guess.

But the point of the drones is not to help the environment. Far from it. One point is to make money for Amazon by attracting new customers with a promise of 30 minute delivery. The other point is to save money for Amazon by getting rid of FedEx, UPS, and USPS. (Control of the supply chain is what it's all about for modern retail businesses.) Obviously this would mean a loss of jobs for many drivers, clerks and other employees.

But the displaced delivery drivers can probably get unpleasant jobs that pay much less at one of Amazon's "fulfillment centers." Unfortunately for Amazon's long term future (and America's), most of the poorly paid Amazon workers can't afford to buy much of the cheap crap that Amazon sells.

I suppose that 30 minute delivery of small packages would be attractive to some carfree people, especially those who are too busy (or too lazy) to ride or get on a bus to the store. And I do admit that it would be cool to watch the drones buzzing around, as long as they don't run out of gas and conk me in the head.
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Old 12-06-13, 09:00 AM   #13
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I actually think that our current economic models that depend on everyone having a job, even a menial one, are unsustainable, and arguably inhumane and a waste of what humans are good at. I also think that most jobs have a net cost to society, and if those workers were unemployed and on total welfare that paid for their current standard of living, we may actually be better off.

The problem is, what is sustainable looks suspiciously like communism, and there's serious problems implementing that.
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Old 12-06-13, 09:14 AM   #14
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I actually think that our current economic models that depend on everyone having a job, even a menial one, are unsustainable, and arguably inhumane and a waste of what humans are good at. I also think that most jobs have a net cost to society, and if those workers were unemployed and on total welfare that paid for their current standard of living, we may actually be better off.

The problem is, what is sustainable looks suspiciously like communism, and there's serious problems implementing that.
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Old 12-06-13, 11:38 AM   #15
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...as long as they don't run out of gas and conk me in the head.
Where is your helmet?!
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Old 12-06-13, 12:39 PM   #16
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Is it any less destructive if a 10,000 pound truck getting 6 to 8 MPG delivers your T-Shirts from Lands end to you and your neighbors?
Good point. I think we should head out to Silicon Valley and get several million in startup funds for a bicycle-based solution. Just need a catchy name, hook a few article on Slate and Wired and cross fingers that Bezos will buy us out.
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Old 12-06-13, 12:48 PM   #17
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I think a pizza delivery done by drones set up would work great... Even I a person that generally avoids investing in things I can't control would put some money into that... Oh, and no I'm not even a millionaire let alone a Billionaire.
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Old 12-06-13, 02:05 PM   #18
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Commercial manned space flight = fiction. Virgin space doesn't count, they're basically duplicating at X-15 flight, a billionaires roller coaster. The alternative options are all heavily subsidizes by national governments. We have private companies SpaceX, etc, but they're almost entirely financed by gov't funding. For un-manned space flight, you already have commercial satellite launches as a routine thing, the catch is the rocket R & D costs were gov't financed (US, Russian, EU, India, China). So it partially depends on definitions.

Hyperloop -- Cool idea. Fiction for a long time though.

Driverless cars -- Reality within the next 10 years. Cars already have automatic braking & lane assist. Musk is right, the next step is automatic "cruise control", where the car is completely autonomous with a licensed driver sitting in the seat. After that totally autonomous cars will be along shortly. Google's bet on cars may wind up bringing in HUGE profits.

Drone deliver -- PR stunt for now. All the drone programs are grounded until the FAA figures out how to manage them.

Remember that a lot of tech companies take the "throw stuff at the wall, see what sticks" approach.
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Old 12-06-13, 02:27 PM   #19
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But the really ridiculous idea I've heard lately is McDonalds putting 3D printers in every location.
Won't taste nearly as good as fresh off the griddle.
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Old 12-06-13, 03:00 PM   #20
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Won't taste nearly as good as fresh off the griddle.
Have you ever eaten at McD's?
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Old 12-06-13, 03:12 PM   #21
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Commercial manned space flight = fiction. Virgin space doesn't count, they're basically duplicating at X-15 flight, a billionaires roller coaster. The alternative options are all heavily subsidizes by national governments. We have private companies SpaceX, etc, but they're almost entirely financed by gov't funding. For un-manned space flight, you already have commercial satellite launches as a routine thing, the catch is the rocket R & D costs were gov't financed (US, Russian, EU, India, China). So it partially depends on definitions.

Hyperloop -- Cool idea. Fiction for a long time though.

Driverless cars -- Reality within the next 10 years. Cars already have automatic braking & lane assist. Musk is right, the next step is automatic "cruise control", where the car is completely autonomous with a licensed driver sitting in the seat. After that totally autonomous cars will be along shortly. Google's bet on cars may wind up bringing in HUGE profits.

Drone deliver -- PR stunt for now. All the drone programs are grounded until the FAA figures out how to manage them.

Remember that a lot of tech companies take the "throw stuff at the wall, see what sticks" approach.
I pretty much agree with your assessment. I especially agree with your implicit point that the economics are more important than the technology when it comes to what will stick to the wall. This is true in any field, but especially transportation, which requires both large capital investment and strong consensus approval of a new technology. IOW, even an eccentric billionaire has to get investors interested, and has to get the public and the government to approve the new technology.

The drones idea is goofy. Sorry, Jeff. Drones would be cool, but mechanical failure is inevitable, and when it happens the drone will have to crash into something. I don't think very many governments will allow them to fly into densely populated areas. There also don't seem to be many social or economic benefits from this idea.

I agree that hyperloop will probably happen someday, or some other form of super high speed rail. It should be a lot more efficient than jets, since you're lifting the load only a few millimeters instead of hundreds of meters. I imagine the US will be one of the last countries to adopt super speed rail, but several other countries are already seriously working on it.

I hate driverless cars personally, but I agree that they will probably be with us soon. They require new hardware and software, but use existing infrastructure. So that means lower investments are needed compared to the other ideas. So it basically comes down to whether the public and government regulators will accept it. However, I doubt that the idea of massive car sharing, which some people on this forum hope for, will be a result of driverless cars. You won't be able to summon a car on your cell phone and have it drive itself to pick you up. I hope these things will reduce crashes and injuries. Otherwise, the main "advantage" of autopilot cars will be to increase road capacities by allowing cars to move faster and in closer proximity to each other. I don't see that as a good thing, personally.
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Old 12-06-13, 03:57 PM   #22
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Have you ever eaten at McD's?
Yes I have. $5 goes pretty far on the Dollar menu and the service is quick; tastes OK too. Rather convenient when traveling and/or busy. Also helps not to let sanctimonious thoughts affect the taste buds.
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Old 12-06-13, 04:47 PM   #23
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Yes I have. $5 goes pretty far on the Dollar menu and the service is quick; tastes OK too. Rather convenient when traveling and/or busy. Also helps not to let sanctimonious thoughts affect the taste buds.
The coffee is also good. Now if there was only some way they could fly a cup of joe to my house, still hot and not spilling a drop....
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Old 12-06-13, 06:14 PM   #24
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re: McDonalds-- even before I came to despise Mickey D's for the usual social/political reasons, I thought the food was pretty terrible. Still do, but I'll confess to eating no-meat McMuffins if I'm on a long drive for vacation or somesuch. The rectangular hashbrowns are edible, too. The rest? Please.

re: driverless cars. OMG, I hope not. Is it possible? Yeah. They have the tech now. Is it a good idea? No. I mean, power windows and doorlocks have been "good ideas" within the realm of possibility for decades, yet they still fail regularly. In those cases, it's no big deal-- you can't roll the window down, or you need to unlock manually. But, if any of the systems that regulate a fully automated car's braking and steering fails, there WILL be a crash. Imagine sitting in the front left passenger seat (nee "driver's seat) and helplessly watching yourself crash, b/c the system failed. (And, yes, brake/steering systems fail on contemporary cars...but those failures could still occur, without a logical driver being able to use the remaining systems effectively....)

Of course, there may be a "manual over-ride" mode, but let's face it: we'll all just use the manual over-ride mode all the time, if we're able.

This thread doesn't seem to take into account the fact that the US economy is tanking; don't you think that the initial outlay for hyperloops and drones and stuff isn't feasible unless the economy turns around soon?
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Old 12-06-13, 06:15 PM   #25
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The coffee is also good. Now if there was only some way they could fly a cup of joe to my house, still hot and not spilling a drop....
If McDonald's coffee passes for "good" in Lansing, I'll need to find something else to drink in the AM should i ever visit there.
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