Roody

It's a tradition to make predictions at the beginning of the year. What do you forecast for 2014 and/or the 25 or 50 years to follow?

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To get you started, here are some of Isaac Asimov's predictions about 2014, made back in 1964:

https://www.openculture.com/2014/01/i...k-in-2014.html

gerv 

I am going to make a cycling prediction.

In the industrialized world, cities that add more complete streets initiatives -- including extensive bicycle infrastructure -- and who attempt to align themselves with Green initiatives will move the top of the economic pile. Cities that fail will move to the "rust belt" of the technological age.

I'm not saying adding more bike lanes will necessarily induce Microsoft to build a new data center in your neighborhood. It's the correlation between economic development and urban renewal. And the exact nature of the correlation is complex and IMHO inevitable.

B. Carfree

He must have time-traveled to my neighborhood. We have three new breweries, two new fermented cider operations and a distillery that have all moved in within the past five years. Those microbes are working overtime to make the flavored alcoholic beverages preferred by my local drunk drivers.

Yes, I know that's not what he meant. I'm just in a sour mood because I feel like I'm stuck on Trantor (overdeveloped world) when I'd rather be on Aurora (low-density world where people actually walk), both future worlds in Isaac Asimov's robot series.

Smallwheels

Microsoft (a.k.a. Microsux) will be devastated by the adoption of the Chrome OS by millions of laptop buyers. As more people learn about Chrome OS and how quickly it runs on low end equipment the sales of Chromebooks will increase. Windoz 8 will continue to be disliked and hated by so many people that the company will be forced to make some kind of drastic announcement before the end of the year regarding replacing it early or doing a huge overhaul.

I don't know when it will happen but someday a major manufacturer is going to drop Windoz as its premier operating system. It will sell most of its machines with something different, probably a version of Chrome OS or GNU/Linux. There are small manufacturers already doing this and their companies are expanding.

I eagerly await the destruction of the Microsux company. I have hated them since they sold Vista. I won't buy another Microsux product and I do what I can to steer people away from them. Now that I've experienced GNU/Linux operating systems I don't even want to buy another Apple computer. I like Ubuntu and other versions of GNU/Linux so much because they do a better job than either of the other mainstream operating systems.

My next machine will be a Chromebook. The model I wanted to buy was always sold out and recently I've read that it was discontinued. It was the number one seller in laptops on Amazon for 2013. When a newer version comes out with updated hardware I'll be making my purchase. I absolutely must have a minimum of 4 GB RAM.

Machka 

Personally, I don't think 2014 is going to be much different from 2013.


Now ... what are your predictions?

fietsbob

At 66 years old in 50 years I will be dead. men just dont get to be 116 years old.

Profileclimb

Gas will go to $5.00 a gallon, even though we have more oil than the Middle East.

Machka 

"Will go"??? It's well past that now!! Roody asked for predictions for the future.

Artkansas 

It's only $3.19 at my local station.

Artkansas 

Well, I think in 50 years, cars will be auto-driven.

I think that most repetitive tasks will be handled by machines.

I'm not sure how many people will support themselves. This may become a major issue in the future as more and more people find themselves unemployable.

I think that we will have permanent moon colonies and bases on Mars. Solar power satellites will be at L5 and we will regularly be harvesting asteroids.

Machka 

Yeah ... we noticed that fuel in the US was dirt cheap.


According to my calculations, if 1 US gallon = 3.78541 litres, and 1 litre of fuel costs $1.60 (or more) per litre, then a gallon of fuel would cost $6.056/gallon.

Of course, that doesn't take into consideration any difference between the US dollar and the Australian dollar, but they've been fairly close lately (until the last month or so).


And if I'm not mistaken, fuel in Europe is even more expensive. I've never driven a car there, but have observed some of the signs.

Roody

...yet...

https://healthland.time.com/2013/12/1...-as-you-think/

fietsbob

NB: Fracking is = to scraping the bottom of the Barrel..

taxes paid by the rest of us includes subsidies to the oil companies

and The DOD/NATO budget to 'Protect access' to it.

Roody

I think cars will drive themselves in five years, IF people accept this technology.

I agree reed that jobs will be hard to come by in 50 years. We will have to figure out how to pay people a comfortable living for NOT working. Or we will have to dismantle much of our labor saving technology. Ironically, it might be that only rich people work while the poor are unemployed. (Like how today rich people are skinny and poor people are fat.)

I don't think many, if any, people will live on Mars, the moon, or asteroids. But we will have a lot of robots on those places.

Roody

Of course one year will not be much different from another, unless an unpredictable crisis occurs. So keep an eye on the Middle East, Iran, North Korea, and any new contagious diseases and flu strains. And the American Congress.

i think the next few years will bring increasing pushback against transportation cycling as competition for street space grows. Ultimately, there will be a gradual reduction in car usage despite spikes in developing countries. Within 50 years, private car usage will be less than half what it is now.

In 50 years, global air temperatures will be seven degrees hotter than they are now. Many regions, including large parts of Australia, will be almost uninhabitable. Water availability will be a major problem also. Everybody will want to live in the Great Lakes region and Scandinavia.

gerv 

7F? I checked some reputable sources which claimed it could go as high as 11.5F by 2100.

Iowa would become as hot as Pheonix. Florida would likely be underwater.

The good news is that the lower end of the prediction is 2F.

Artkansas 

We're planning for ocean-front condos in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.

Roody

The lower end has been ruled out by new research reported about cloud formation.

https://www.theguardian.com/environme...c-2100-climate

wipekitty

I agree with the predictions about self-driving cars. I think they'll take off, too: spending a lot of time around young adults, I'm amazed at how willing they are to hand everything over to technology, without the slightest understanding of how the technology works. On the other hand, young adults seem less interested in driving than folks born in the 80s and earlier, so who knows.

I also predict a rise in microconsumerism/microproduction, which might help with the job and income issue. Maybe a return to more households with only one adult working outside the home - but with less of the gender restrictions of earlier eras.

Roody

Very insightful post! It really made me think.

I think you hit on two possible solutions to the forthcoming underemployment problem. But people would have to pay more for some goods, and workers would have to be paid more, in order for these solutions to work. Two obstacles are the capitalist worship of efficiency, and consumers' expectations of "low prices...always".

Machka 

I wish it were 7 degrees hotter now! It's freezing here this summer.

Roody

Our high temp today was 8 degrees, or minus 13 Celsius. The predictions of a cold winter are turning out to be correct.

Machka 

It's the middle of summer here and once again on Monday we'll have a high of +17C. That's a spring/autumn temp to me.

wahoonc

Most of the price difference is due to the difference in taxes. In the NC (USA) currently the total tax on fuel is $0.556 per gallon.

As far as predictions... it ain't gonna get better.

Aaron

Machka 

And ... it wasn't much different.