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-   -   Peak car predicted (http://www.bikeforums.net/living-car-free/931318-peak-car-predicted.html)

wahoonc 01-26-14 06:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16440518)
I'm not aware that GM makes any buses?

They did prior to 1980 or so, currently they are in a partnership with Korean bus/car/heavy equipment maker Daewoo so the potential exists.

Aaron :)

rebel1916 01-26-14 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16441222)
Peak bikes? I challenge anybody to honestly tell me that they don't see more bikes now than they did 10 years ago. Forget about what you read in the WSJ, what do your own eyes tell you?

Facts be damned, how do you feel?

Dave Cutter 01-26-14 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16441222)
Peak bikes? I challenge anybody to honestly tell me that they don't see more bikes now than they did 10 years ago. Forget about what you read in the WSJ, what do your own eyes tell you?

I know some regions/areas continue to see progression with bicycles. Not so much in the mid-west.

True... actual bicycle stats can be hard to gather... or have faith in. I know membership in my local bicycle club has fallen. Many in the club blame that on the average age of membership.... and members dying off. I see less numbers of cyclist on the MUPs in my local area (and more joggers).

Cycling popularity has always had highs... and lows. I don't think/feel that cycling is experiencing a low. But the peak in cycling interest as a sport in the eyes of the general public has seriously waned since the very public drug/cycling scandal. Losing such a notable America champion of the sport to public ridicule hurts the sport.

cooker 01-26-14 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16441222)
Peak bikes? I challenge anybody to honestly tell me that they don't see more bikes now than they did 10 years ago. Forget about what you read in the WSJ, what do your own eyes tell you?

Globally it is possible there is a dip in bike ownership in China etc. as they get both more cars and more public transit. If so, that might overshadow the increase in the US and the other already industrialized nations.

cooker 01-26-14 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16440370)
The car companies turned on a dime to start producing war equipment in World War II. No cars whatsoever were produced from 1943-1945, and Detroit was known as the arsenal of democracy. Supply chains and production methods are much more complex today, but the companies are starting to to respond already, according to CEO Mulally in the article you linked to:
According to the Financial Times, Mulally said....that he was interested in developments in “personal mobility” and “quality of life.” Then he seemed to indicate Ford is interested in getting into transit, car sharing, or other models that don’t align with private car ownership.

“Maybe [our focus] will be on components; maybe it’ll be on pieces of the equipment,” Mulally said. “I don’t know.”


http://dc.streetsblog.org/2014/01/22...going-to-work/

I guess he's anticipating something similar to what IBM went through - moving into services as opposed to hardware.

Dave Cutter 01-26-14 10:02 AM

I think obesity is the enemy of car free society's! And we had cars decades before we had this obesity problem. While the exercise of walking and cycling could help resolve the problem.... I don't see that happening on a mass scale.

As the average weight (for Adult Americans) continues to rise.... outdoor sports and activities will fall in popularity with the general public. And the typical car will move closer to being a SUV.

Ekdog 01-26-14 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Cutter (Post 16441658)
I think obesity is the enemy of car free society's! And we had cars decades before we had this obesity problem. While the exercise of walking and cycling could help resolve the problem.... I don't see that happening on a mass scale.

As the average weight (for Adult Americans) continues to rise.... outdoor sports and activities will fall in popularity with the general public. And the typical car will move closer to being a SUV.

There is a serious obesity problem in the United States. That cannot be denied, but I daresay there are still plenty of Americans who can fit into a compact car or a city bus. Perhaps the fact that you hail from Mississippi (if I remember correctly), the state with the highest obesity rate in the nation*, makes you look at these matters with a jaundiced eye.

How about encouraging overweight people to walk and cycle more? Is that too radical a concept?



*Or perhaps the second most obese. I'm told West Virginia may have overtaken you.

Dave Cutter 01-26-14 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekdog (Post 16441859)
There is a serious obesity problem in the United States. That cannot be denied, but I daresay there are still plenty of Americans who can fit into a compact car or a city bus. Perhaps the fact that you hail from Mississippi (if I remember correctly), the state with the highest obesity rate in the nation*, makes you look at these matters with a jaundiced eye.

How about encouraging overweight people to walk and cycle more? Is that too radical a concept?


Actually Mississippi is one of the very few states in America I have NOT even visited. I am actually from a supposedly "thin" state.

All humans see the world with a prejudiced view of sorts. I am perfectly "average" in that regard. Nothing particularly negative or of a critical manner in my perspective. Is "encouraging" an effective treatment for obesity? If that's so... we should be able to resolve that problem by spring.... I would guess.

My Dad used to have a crude little saying about wishing.... and filling a hand (in competition with a bodily function). His point being that: Wishing, pretending, hoping and dreaming.... are ineffective as tools for accomplishment or change. I am too old to take up kidding myself about what changes are or aren't taking place.... or why.

Roody 01-26-14 02:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Cutter (Post 16441613)
I know some regions/areas continue to see progression with bicycles. Not so much in the mid-west.

True... actual bicycle stats can be hard to gather... or have faith in. I know membership in my local bicycle club has fallen. Many in the club blame that on the average age of membership.... and members dying off. I see less numbers of cyclist on the MUPs in my local area (and more joggers).

Cycling popularity has always had highs... and lows. I don't think/feel that cycling is experiencing a low. But the peak in cycling interest as a sport in the eyes of the general public has seriously waned since the very public drug/cycling scandal. Losing such a notable America champion of the sport to public ridicule hurts the sport.

I'm not really thinking about club riders or racers. Do you see ore or fewer people riding bikes overall?

Dave Cutter 01-26-14 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16442263)
I'm not really thinking about club riders or racers. Do you see ore or fewer people riding bikes overall?

At the large hub(s) areas on the local MUPs.... cyclists seem to have dropped off. I see more joggers... but less walkers. Where it used to be cyclist then walkers.

However.... on a new spur (about 2 miles long) that terminates at a local university I see bunches of walkers.... although rarely another cyclist. Interestingly... the university has a free loaner bicycle program. Yet I've only seen two such "loaner bicycles". And although the school is very much located in a city... the students seem to prefer mountain bicycles. I've seen bunches of quality mtn bikes on campus.

It seems to me that most of the cyclist I see on the street are ether youthful or other old retired men like myself. Although I am out and about enough I see every demographic. But I'd guess one of the larger demographics... old men... may be a fading demographic. Just a guess.... would be areas with growing populations would have a younger cycling base. I've only seen a handful of youths on fixies or fixie-like bicycles.

I believe... a hundred years from now... people will still see bicycles on the streets that are very similar to the ones we see today. Or at least... I sure hope so. I regularly ride by one of the homes owned by the Wright Brothers (when they operated the bicycle shop). I like knowing I bicycle on the same streets where the inventors of the airplane... rode their handmade bicycles.

GodsBassist 01-26-14 06:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16442263)
I'm not really thinking about club riders or racers. Do you see ore or fewer people riding bikes overall?

More. I've lived in this area for 4 years now and when I first moved here it was novel to see other cyclists. Now I see other cyclists consistently. Even today, in the middle of January there was another guy out riding. When I first got here, I would have been shocked to see another cyclist ever, much less when it's below freezing.

We also have an advocacy group with a website at work, and people can post their rides as kind of a fun/informal way to track who has the most miles/tripes/commuter days. It has consistently increased year after year, and I think last year we broke 100k total miles for the first time.

#halfwaytothemoonyall

rebel1916 01-26-14 06:47 PM

GodsBassist are you named after Lemmy?

GodsBassist 01-26-14 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rebel1916 (Post 16442784)
GodsBassist are you named after Lemmy?

Is that a trick question?

rebel1916 01-26-14 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GodsBassist (Post 16442798)
Is that a trick question?

No, I just wanted to be clear that Lemmy was God. Not just His bassist...

GodsBassist 01-26-14 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rebel1916 (Post 16442806)
No, I just wanted to be clear that Lemmy was God. Not just His bassist...

I believe the full quote from Airheads was something like "Wrong answer, ********, Trick question! Lemmy is God!" =P

rebel1916 01-26-14 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GodsBassist (Post 16442817)
I believe the full quote from Airheads was something like "Wrong answer, ********, Trick question! Lemmy is God!" =P

Along with James Gandolfini, Kilmeister is one of two celebs I have ever approached in public.

bragi 01-28-14 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16442263)
I'm not really thinking about club riders or racers. Do you see ore or fewer people riding bikes overall?

Bicycles are a lot more common here than they were ten years ago. For a few years, I saw very few other riders when I was out and about, especially in Winter. Then, starting about 2008 or so, I started seeing a lot more. Now, I never, ever ride without seeing other riders at least once every few minutes. Sometimes I see a dozen or so every minute. I used to have the storage room at my workplace all to myself. Now, it's packed with bikes to such an extent that the maintenance staff is getting kind of irritated. (OK, it's 3 sometimes 5 bikes, in a place with 30 employees.) In some parts of town, especially on weekends, I actually have a little trouble finding a decent place to lock up my bike. I have to say, though, that in the last year or two, I've seen a lot fewer racer-type bicyclists, the ones in full kit and fancy road bikes. Instead, I'm seeing almost all commuters and other utility-type riders.

One thing that does give me pause, though, is this: most of my tween students, and virtually all of their high school-age siblings and friends, would rather not be seen riding a bike. It's just not socially acceptable at that age, even in Seattle. (The quad of the high school near my house has a small bike rack, and on any given day it's totally empty.) My own observations confirm this: bicycle riders here are either college-age, middle-aged, or healthy elderly people. I don't have any hard, data, but my guess is that the most heavily represented bicycling demographic is males between the ages of 35 and 50. This next-generation antipathy, or at least indifference, to bicycles does not bode well for the future...

Roody 01-28-14 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bragi (Post 16446366)
Bicycles are a lot more common here than they were ten years ago. For a few years, I saw very few other riders when I was out and about, especially in Winter. Then, starting about 2008 or so, I started seeing a lot more. Now, I never, ever ride without seeing other riders at least once every few minutes. Sometimes I see a dozen or so every minute. I used to have the storage room at my workplace all to myself. Now, it's packed with bikes to such an extent that the maintenance staff is getting kind of irritated. (OK, it's 3 sometimes 5 bikes, in a place with 30 employees.) In some parts of town, especially on weekends, I actually have a little trouble finding a decent place to lock up my bike. I have to say, though, that in the last year or two, I've seen a lot fewer racer-type bicyclists, the ones in full kit and fancy road bikes. Instead, I'm seeing almost all commuters and other utility-type riders.

One thing that does give me pause, though, is this: most of my tween students, and virtually all of their high school-age siblings and friends, would rather not be seen riding a bike. It's just not socially acceptable at that age, even in Seattle. (The quad of the high school near my house has a small bike rack, and on any given day it's totally empty.) My own observations confirm this: bicycle riders here are either college-age, middle-aged, or healthy elderly people. I don't have any hard, data, but my guess is that the most heavily represented bicycling demographic is males between the ages of 35 and 50. This next-generation antipathy, or at least indifference, to bicycles does not bode well for the future...

The first time I ever saw the wheel tracks of another bike in the snow, I followed it excitedly, hoping to see another cyclist. That was about ten years ago. Now there are always several bikes whenever I'm out. The wind chill today was almost 40 below zero with sporadic white-out snow squalls. I got a ride :o to the credit union downtown. On the trip, I saw two people on mountain bikes.

I'm sure there are much lower concentrations here compared to Seattle. I concur on the age group observations you reported. I do see a few teen riders--usually boys on BMX bikes, but also girls riding together on fitness bikes and pink cruisers. But I find the numbers to be lower than the adult riders. I don't think anybody at my grandson's high school rides to school. Students, that is. My grandson says that a few teachers commute by bike.

But overall, I see at least a doubling of transportation-type cyclists compared to 10 years ago.

gerv 01-28-14 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bragi (Post 16446366)
My own observations confirm this: bicycle riders here are either college-age, middle-aged, or healthy elderly people. I don't have any hard, data, but my guess is that the most heavily represented bicycling demographic is males between the ages of 35 and 50. This next-generation antipathy, or at least indifference, to bicycles does not bode well for the future...

I concur. The bulk of regular riders seem to be older. Many of the look like they are around retirement age.

However, there are also many more women into transportational riding. Which tells me it is a practical solution, not a passing fad.

Younger people? I'd have to say there still are quite a few young people who ride... as the cycling culture here is very strong and a lot of social activities (drinking, eating, parties...) revolve around bicycles. For example my son's gf mentioned that she has a circle of friends who often bar hop on bicycles. This is easy to do as most of the new brew pubs are located on bike trails or near them.

MEversbergII 01-29-14 02:28 PM

I'm hoping to start some bike-related social events here soon. Come this spring I am starting with a get-together-and-ride 12 mile spin. Not long at all, and not a very hard route - well suited for everyone.

I think the only "bike organization" around here is Pax Velo and a couple small racing groups. No thanks.

M.

RPK79 01-29-14 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rebel1916 (Post 16441591)
Facts be damned, how do you feel?

Right?

Roody 01-29-14 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rebel1916 (Post 16441591)
Facts be damned, how do you feel?

The figures are not facts. There are no accurate or valid statistics regarding ridership of bikes. The closest to being accurate are probably the community data from the census bureau, which are based on survey observations. (US only of course).

rebel1916 01-29-14 11:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16450958)
The figures are not facts. There are no accurate or valid statistics regarding ridership of bikes. The closest to being accurate are probably the community data from the census bureau, which are based on survey observations. (US only of course).

Just admit that what you were asking for was silly.

cooker 01-30-14 07:56 AM

A survey in Toronto showed a big jump in cycling from 1999 to 2009. http://bikingtoronto.com/blog/2010/0...s-on-the-rise/

I think they have some hard data on bike counts at different locations and I will post that if I can find it.

loky1179 02-02-14 06:48 PM

The thing I don't understand is how people are still able to afford to buy new cars. It seems to me that the increase in the price of cars has far outstripped any increase in wages; this would seem to be confirmed by the figures listed here:

http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/70ye...icechange.html

The price of cars has increase at a rate about double that of wages, since 1970. I bought my first car in 1987, and have owned a total of 4 vehicles, COMBINED purchase price of $600 + $1500 + $3000 + $8000 = $13,100. Average new car costs over $30K? Won't be buying one of those anytime soon.

My most recent commuter bike purchase was $100 off of Craiglist. I could own quite the fleet for $31K.


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