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-   -   Peak car predicted (http://www.bikeforums.net/living-car-free/931318-peak-car-predicted.html)

Roody 01-24-14 05:06 PM

Peak car predicted
 
It's inevitable, IMO, that the rise of cities will result in the decline of cars. Several recent studies reach this conclusion also. Car use will soon peak in the developing world (including China) and use has already started to decline in many of the wealthier nations (including the USA).

How will cities and countries adjust to these changing patterns? Will the bicycle play a larger role in private transportation?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...ation/4821423/

gerv 01-24-14 07:13 PM

Quote:

Long-term revenue growth for the industry depends on successful conquest sales and new business models which engage car-as-a–service (car sharing), not just car-as-a-product, ...
This makes complete sense, but the implications are interesting. So if you want to go to Lowe's, you'll just head down to the local Zipcar. I guess that happens nowadays... just not to me that often.

This would also have profound implication for those who identify so strongly with their automobile.

Roody 01-25-14 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gerv (Post 16438649)
This makes complete sense, but the implications are interesting. So if you want to go to Lowe's, you'll just head down to the local Zipcar. I guess that happens nowadays... just not to me that often.

This would also have profound implication for those who identify so strongly with their automobile.

I would love to see this go to co-operative car share clubs. IOW, a group of friends, neighbors, or co-workers all buying a car together. This could be done if states would pass laws and tax regulations to facilitate joint ownership and insurance of cars.

dynodonn 01-25-14 10:20 AM

It's not so much the lack of space for automobiles, but other factors such as higher initial costs, high insurance premiums, high maintenance expenditures, and the ever increasing social media usage among the younger generation.


Millennials in 2014: Take My Car, Not My Phone: http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelin...-not-my-phone/

"Millennials also say that that their use of phones and other mobile devices is allowing them to cut back on their driving. About 40 percent of them say they substitute texting, email, video chats such as Skype or Google Hangout for meeting up with friends in person, according to the study."

"The survey confirmed what a number of experts have theorized: faced with high student loan bills, and diminished opportunities to land jobs, many millennials believe cars are too expensive for them to own, just yet"

Jseis 01-25-14 10:31 AM

What about peak bike? I'd mention & suggest shoes/sandals but this is bike forum and my S.O. is trying damned hard to reach peak shoe as soon as possible.

dynodonn 01-25-14 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jseis (Post 16439697)
...... my S.O. is trying damned hard to reach peak shoe as soon as possible.


Hopefully it will be done soon, since one doesn't want their shoes to end up like this.;)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...s-neglect.html

Jseis 01-25-14 11:25 AM

Ha!

I suspect Peak Bike means we could all own (in car tonnage of 1.5-2 tons) equivalents) oh say, 100-200 new bikes every 4-7 years...that's like a dozen or more new bikes every year!!! (average bike at 20-30 pounds) each if we tossed all our cars. Near two orders of magnitude more bikes. Christo, that means annual US production of bikes alone would be like 1.5 billion bikes! Clearly Peak Bike numbers potential are stratospheric.

Ekdog 01-25-14 11:47 AM

Even the CEO of Ford agrees:

More Cars in Cities “Not Going to Work”

I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.

wolfchild 01-25-14 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekdog (Post 16439850)
I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.

Sure they're capable of producing clean, fuel efficient buses and trains. But it's a very slow process which will take a very long time to implement...Here in my city all of our transit buses run on Bio-Diesel. There are also plans to electrify our commuter trains, as of right now all the locomotives run on diesel. It's a slow process because of the cost, and also there needs to be an environmental assessment done before the trains are electrified, this can take years and years.

cooker 01-25-14 01:19 PM

I may have called it a bit prematurely :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by cooker (Post 5509041)
(2007) I think we're at peak auto, or close to it. Ten years from now we'll see if I'm right. Hopefully this thread will still be archived somewhere. :)


ironwood 01-25-14 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekdog (Post 16439850)

I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.

Back in the seventies, after the Vietnam War, there was an attempt yo convert some "defense" industries to civilian products. Boeing was to build light rail cars for Boston's Green Line. It didn't work. Boeing was so used to building stuff for the Air Force on a cost plus basis, that they over enginneered the cars . The doors were so complicated they were failure prone; The result was the fifty year old cars were kept and the new ones were taken out of service.
The nextorder went to Japan.

Ekdog 01-25-14 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfchild (Post 16440003)
Sure they're capable of producing clean, fuel efficient buses and trains. But it's a very slow process which will take a very long time to implement...Here in my city all of our transit buses run on Bio-Diesel. There are also plans to electrify our commuter trains, as of right now all the locomotives run on diesel. It's a slow process because of the cost, and also there needs to be an environmental assessment done before the trains are electrified, this can take years and years.

They sure switched quickly from cars to tanks and planes in WWII.

wolfchild 01-25-14 02:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekdog (Post 16440088)
They sure switched quickly from cars to tanks and planes in WWII.

Yes , that's because there was no "red tape" BS back in the old days, so everything got done faster.

Ekdog 01-25-14 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolfchild (Post 16440119)
Yes , that's because there was no "red tape" BS back in the old days, so everything got done faster.

What do you mean by "red tape 'BS' "? Health and safety regulations? Environmental laws?

wolfchild 01-25-14 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekdog (Post 16440122)
What do you mean by "red tape 'BS' "? Health and safety regulations? Environmental laws?

Any type of project nowdays has to be "studied by experts", which takes forever, with millions of $ wasted on consultants.. Then it needs to be pre-approved and then finally approved by 100 different individuals before it's given green light to go ahead. It's like that with everything, why can't people just get something done when it needs to be done ??

GetOuttaMyWay 01-25-14 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16439127)
I would love to see this go to co-operative car share clubs. IOW, a group of friends, neighbors, or co-workers all buying a car together. This could be done if states would pass laws and tax regulations to facilitate joint ownership and insurance of cars.

Who says it can't be done now (w/o legislation)? Just form a LLC and have at it. The hardest part will be to get everyone to agree as to make/model and the logistics of sharing it.

fietsbob 01-25-14 04:01 PM

the (theoretical) vehicle pool will of course include Utility hauling

so a Truck is available without Owning one , personally ..

Roody 01-25-14 04:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ekdog (Post 16439850)
Even the CEO of Ford agrees:

More Cars in Cities “Not Going to Work”

I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.

The car companies turned on a dime to start producing war equipment in World War II. No cars whatsoever were produced from 1943-1945, and Detroit was known as the arsenal of democracy. Supply chains and production methods are much more complex today, but the companies are starting to to respond already, according to CEO Mulally in the article you linked to:
According to the Financial Times, Mulally said....that he was interested in developments in “personal mobility” and “quality of life.” Then he seemed to indicate Ford is interested in getting into transit, car sharing, or other models that don’t align with private car ownership.

“Maybe [our focus] will be on components; maybe it’ll be on pieces of the equipment,” Mulally said. “I don’t know.”


http://dc.streetsblog.org/2014/01/22...going-to-work/

GetOuttaMyWay 01-25-14 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fietsbob (Post 16440318)
the (theoretical) vehicle pool will of course include Utility hauling

so a Truck is available without Owning one , personally ..

People can rent a truck through u-haul or other rental agencies or hire a delivery service. Hell, Home Depot will either deliver or rent you a pick up truck so that you can take big items home with you.

Dave Cutter 01-25-14 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jseis (Post 16439697)
What about peak bike?

I am thinking I read somewhere that "peak bicycle" in America (by percentage of the population) was the late thirty's (1930's). As during that period bicycles were used by both adults and children. Whereas in the 1940's bicycle became mostly children's toys. Bicycles have since had a couple periods of popularity with adults.... with 43 million cyclist (the most ever reported) in 2010. T

oday the estimate is 39 million American cyclist.... most of which are children.

GetOuttaMyWay 01-25-14 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roody (Post 16440370)
The car companies turned on a dime to start producing war equipment in World War II. No cars whatsoever were produced from 1943-1945, and Detroit was known as the arsenal of democracy. Supply chains and production methods are much more complex today, but the companies are starting to to respond already, according to CEO Mulally in the article you linked to:
According to the Financial Times, Mulally said....that he was interested in developments in “personal mobility” and “quality of life.” Then he seemed to indicate Ford is interested in getting into transit, car sharing, or other models that don’t align with private car ownership.

“Maybe [our focus] will be on components; maybe it’ll be on pieces of the equipment,” Mulally said. “I don’t know.”


http://dc.streetsblog.org/2014/01/22...going-to-work/

Well of course he's looking into other sectors than just the personal auto- there is potential revenue streams in those sectors. But those streams will be there to augment/enhance the revenue from personal auto and not replace it.

Most likely, Ford is eyeballing GM and the bus market.

Roody 01-25-14 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GetOuttaMyWay (Post 16440408)
Well of course he's looking into other sectors than just the personal auto- there is potential revenue streams in those sectors. But those streams will be there to augment/enhance the revenue from personal auto and not replace it.

Most likely, Ford is eyeballing GM and the bus market.

I'm not aware that GM makes any buses?

GodsBassist 01-25-14 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Cutter (Post 16440406)
I am thinking I read somewhere that "peak bicycle" in America (by percentage of the population) was the late thirty's (1930's). As during that period bicycles were used by both adults and children. Whereas in the 1940's bicycle became mostly children's toys. Bicycles have since had a couple periods of popularity with adults.... with 43 million cyclist (the most ever reported) in 2010.

Today the estimate is 39 million American cyclist.... most of which are children.

Out of context this looks like a rant against cyclists. "All these dorks on bikes playing in traffic on their toys! It's so childish, grow up!"


#nobodyputsbabyinacorner

Dave Cutter 01-25-14 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GodsBassist (Post 16440527)
..... this looks like a rant against cyclists.

No way! But I can't suspend my honesty.... to make a less than honest point. If we just "pretend" that bicycles have a status in America that's greater than it really is... then we can pretend anything. And.... then what would motivate us to promote real change.

I admire those you really use bicycles for transportation. I do a little.... but mostly cycling is pure enjoyment (sport) for me. Bicycle commuters are a percent [or less] around here. And after a century and a half or so of bicycling in mid-America.... as much as I love bicycles and cycling... the peak may have both come and gone.

If anything has changed with cars.... it is they're getting bigger! As the people that use them keep getting wider, and heavier. I had thought... [had convinced myself] that cars would be getting smaller by now.

Roody 01-26-14 01:38 AM

Peak bikes? I challenge anybody to honestly tell me that they don't see more bikes now than they did 10 years ago. Forget about what you read in the WSJ, what do your own eyes tell you?


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